patrick.net

Homes in my little gated enclave are selling in <<3 days, if they ever make it to market! Prices are 50% more than 2 years ago. Crazy.

Doesn't matter without accounting for inventory. And potentially distressed properties that aren't for sale.

We're not going to see another housing crash though. The fundamentals are completely different. Likely to go sideways and worst case nationwide 10% drop wouldn't be shocking. Nothing like what we saw in 2006-08 though.

Poorer neighborhoods are where defaults will occur due to low pay service industry jobs being lost due to covid and that drags down the median as those neighborhoods lose value. Most people living in places where it's working professionals will see sideways action and probably increases still.

Major metros are likely to get fucked everywhere. That's where the bulk of the population is and likely the reason for pending sales declining. As I've said, get the F out of cities if you can. The outcome is not good if you stick around if you own.

Not surprised, there is nothing available.

A house sold in my neighborhood for almost double what I paid a few years ago.

This is very anti-people price gains.
This is to suck whatever little people have through mortgage.

I feel I made gains through my real estate investments are not honest if there is no inflation and increase in people's income.
The whole system is created to keep people enslaved.

Unfortunately due to improper upbringing it is very hard to teach many of our American citizens the value of patience and investments.
Instant gratification is norm and that plays into the hands of elites.
But elites must know that they are creating a army of spoiled brats and eventually history will be repeated...whenever wealth accumulates at top.

I bought another house during the pandemic. Zillow's Zestimate goes up every month and my equity is already up close to 100k. Houses in Socal are selling like hot cakes. I wouldnt mind a cooling down period as I am planning on buying another rental (ideally close to the beach).....but prices are very, very high and I dont count on not even a 5% price decline YoY. Inventory is low....and in dream places like SoCal there just isnt much land left to build on.

There got to be some kind of fed or something else policy not to build nation wide. Its hard to understand why the house building is almost stalled across the nation.

They are down because there is no inventory, not because people aren't buying. Prices have been going up so far in most rural and suburban areas. Some cities see declines.

Blue says

There got to be some kind of fed or something else policy not to build nation wide. Its hard to understand why the house building is almost stalled across the nation.

Sounds crazy but the housing crash killed the labor market. To build new is mucho expensivo in most areas. There's fewer skilled trade workers, including illegals. There was no point in getting into the building trades for damn near a decade. Those that have the skills have upped the price for their labor. Factor in labor shortages and other issues, profitability in house construction has gotten way tighter.

WookieMan says

Blue says

There got to be some kind of fed or something else policy not to build nation wide. Its hard to understand why the house building is almost stalled across the nation.

Sounds crazy but the housing crash killed the labor market. To build new is mucho expensivo in most areas. There's fewer skilled trade workers, including illegals. There was no point in getting into the building trades for damn near a decade. Those that have the skills have upped the price for their labor. Factor in labor shortages and other issues, profitability in house construction has gotten way tighter.

Not only that, also permits have become so expensive and slow to get and lumber and other material so expensive that it's not worth for builders to build in many areas, contributing to the scarcity. Some zip-codes don't add a property for sale in weeks.

Houses are selling within hours in Florida.

Supply has been severely restricted. Many of these homes are "fixer uppers". I've searched Zillow and other websites for 15+ years. When you trace the history of a house, many times you will see bank to bank sales. It's almost as if the banks have held onto a certain percentage of the houses intentionally. I'm sure the more intelligent on this forum can surmise why. Hard to prove. If not almost impossible. Someone would have to go through every house to find the percentages.

I'm convinced housing prices will never go down. It's not the free market. It's everything from 2008 + restricting supply + Corona Virus exodus + Dollar inflation. They are stuffing the mattress so to speak. Hiding inflation in housing prices. In the Prohibition days people would hide cash in a mattress. Drug dealers hide cash in walls. Central bankers hide cash in houses. That is just my hypothesis.

But I'm convinced enough by it, that I'm in Eastern Europe right now, searching for a house to buy with cash. My business partner and two lawyers are cutting through the red tape. Assuming I don't lose my life savings in a scam - I will truly own my own house. No property taxes or $5-10 per month in the "rich" neighborhoods here. No mortgage payment. Cash only for foreigners.

A rich neighborhood is simply paying more to live a local "brand name" neighborhood. You get the same identical Polo shirt without the label. I can see very little difference between middle or upper middle class neighborhoods and "rich" neighborhoods here.

I feel more freedom here than in the United States. The only problem is - allot of people don't really like Americans. There is also culture shock to get used to. Many painful adjustments. But that's fine. The women are beautiful and polite. No tattoos. All food is 100% organic by default. No Monsanto. No GMO's. In Los Angeles I can spend up to $1,000.00 on organic groceries just for myself. Here it's about $200 maybe $300 per month.

The housing prices in America are never coming down. It's inflation.

97% of my business is electronic/remote at this point and America is going to the dogs. Why pay $2000 per month rent to sit in an office in LA working from a computer when I can work from anywhere. Or rent the same or better in a cleaner safer area for $300-$400 per month. I can hire quality educated office employees for $12,000.00 per year without worrying about crippling taxes, CA unemployment insurance, SSI, SS, and opportunistic lawsuits and other pressures. It's a nightmare to get set up. Even with two lawyers and a friend who speaks the language.

No choice. I have no hope of "owning" a home in the United States anymore. My hand has been forced.

Michael Cooke says

The only problem is - allot of people don't really like Americans.

Learn the local language, after that they will like you. Most expat Americans don't, and this is why they are universally disliked (just like expat British, Germans, etc are disliked as well).

mell says

it's not worth for builders to build in many areas

California builds all over the place (at least what i see here in SoCal). Have been to TN and AZ this year and many, many new housing communities are popping up in great locations.

Maybe its different in flyover country like IL?

Bitcoin says

mell says

it's not worth for builders to build in many areas

California builds all over the place (at least what i see here in SoCal). Have been to TN and AZ this year and many, many new housing communities are popping up in great locations.

Maybe its different in flyover country like IL?

Maybe in Socal, the bay area / norcal is not seeing much new construction, but a lot of construction on existing houses and some purchases of fixer uppers. In previous years though there has been construction of new buildings. Doesn't mean areas are not in demand, just that building is very expensive and time consuming there, so buyers bid up the few existing homes for sale, at least outside SF and its immediate surroundings.

election2020 says

The whole system is created to keep people enslaved.

Yes, it is.

When you are in debt, someone else controls your life.

Blue says

There got to be some kind of fed or something else policy not to build nation wide. Its hard to understand why the house building is almost stalled across the nation.

Lumber shortage.

Patrick says

election2020 says

The whole system is created to keep people enslaved.

Yes, it is.

When you are in debt, someone else controls your life.

Owning an appreciating asset that cost you 2-3% annually in interest is a great deal. You put 20-30% down on the house but gain 5% annually in appreciation on the entire house value. Bought a house a year ago which appreciated almost 100k.
Also, signing up for new CC and spending the 3-5k needed to get the points (within 3 months) is not a bad deal either. You just pay your credit card off right away. There are ways to do "manufactured spending" where you dont buy useless stuff in order to meet the spend requirement.
Robinhood margin interest is 2.5% annually. My stock portfolio is up 40% even though tech took a hit (which I view as a great buying opportunity).

My point is, dont buy useless shit on credit cards and pay interest on it.....my examples above make you wealthier by utilizing "good" debt. The credit card point example can add up quit a bit over time. If you do a vacation on points, that's 5k-10k free cash to invest in the market (depending on your travel preferences, family size etc).

Bitcoin says

mell says

it's not worth for builders to build in many areas

California builds all over the place (at least what i see here in SoCal). Have been to TN and AZ this year and many, many new housing communities are popping up in great locations.

Maybe its different in flyover country like IL?

Lol. 15 years in the industry here. Was just in AZ, UT, TN, NV, FL (x3), WI, PR and ST in the last 6 months. Obviously IL. I've seen more than you. One market does not make a national market like Socal. Given the CA exodus occurring and coming, I'm not bullish on housing there outside of big tech areas. FL is probably the new hot market. Haven't been to TX in a year or so, but I see that cooling off as well.

Just because building is happening doesn't mean it's a profitable endeavor either. You stop building you don't have a job. That was our point in labor costs, materials and Mell's permit costs comments. Everyone is chasing the next $$. Margins are low right now in constructing new homes. Yes, homes will always get built. We're talking profit margins though. Builders will build because it is their work. They just make less. I know dozens of successful ones.

And yes, values will rise. A family of 4 that doesn't make much will get $5,600 and in a lot of places that will push them over the FHA 3.5% downpayment threshold. So houses will get sucked up quickly. Without more stimulus in 12-18 months, housing may not look so hot though. Not a collapse, but I'm not certain insane inflation is coming to help them out. There will be a small wave, but if there's no more stimulus housing is going sideways or a slight drop in most places in 12-24 months.

I'd call housing low risk but low margins right now. I wouldn't count on appreciation all that much now. This all assumes Biden stops the printing press from this Covid BS (Trump's fault too). If he keeps it going all bets are off the table.

Never have I seen a hotter real estate market than I see today... no matter what the media prints.

This is coming from someone that bought in 2007 too...

HunterTits says

BayArea says

Never have I seen a hotter real estate market than I see today... no mater what the media prints.

This is going from someone that bought in 2007 too...

All those trillions in unnecessary stimulus money created out of thin air has to go somewhere.

Ask Robinhood what they think of unnecessary stimulus money.

BayArea says

Never have I seen a hotter real estate market than I see today... no mater what the media prints.

This is coming from someone that bought in 2007 too...

I don't disagree. The stimulus is going to be a down payment for a lot of people and the inventory is low. That's been the case for a while. I don't see a crash. But I don't see the current decade long party continuing full steam ahead like it has been. More stimulus being the caveat.

It's going to hit a wall though at some point. This is the first time in a long time I'm getting bearish on housing. Again, not a crash, but sideways and slight dips in certain markets.

WookieMan says

BayArea says

Never have I seen a hotter real estate market than I see today... no mater what the media prints.

This is coming from someone that bought in 2007 too...

I don't disagree. The stimulus is going to be a down payment for a lot of people and the inventory is low

Quick reality check for ya. In places like California, your stimulus money doesnt get you far in terms of down payment. We are talking about housing, not a down payment on a beater car lol. I am well aware that in flyover country the stimulus might be enough to pay down enough to get yourself an average crap shack.....not in premium places like CA.

The buyer in California makes too much for a stimulus check. Low household income people (below 150k) cant afford houses in CA.

WookieMan says

Given the CA exodus occurring and coming

thanks. I needed that laugh! Every year the same story. Someone hasnt been in CA for a while....traffic is a bitch here close to the coast. Those arent tourists. Just people living in CA. Wake me up when that changes. Houses in SoCal sell like hot cakes (over asking price).

Bitcoin says

The buyer in California makes too much for a stimulus check. Low household income people (below 150k) cant afford houses in CA.

Yup... the house full of 12-15 illegals. $20k stimulus doesn't get you you heading in the right direction at all with an FHA loan? lol. Do you really live in CA? Not buying your BS. I've been to Socal enough to see what I saw and enough boots on the ground (family & friends) to hear the reality straight from people that live there. But keep putting lipstick on a pig and being happy to pay $800k for a shitty house because ya can't handle a little cold. Sad people are that weak.

Bitcoin says

Someone hasnt been in CA for a while....traffic is a bitch here close to the coast. Those arent tourists. Just people living in CA.

Who said they were tourists? I didn't. And who is they? Traffic is a geographical issue. It's no different in Chicago where you butt against a body of water. Same with San Diego or LA. There's only 3 ways to get in as the 4th is blocked off by water. Not sure your point. ATL and DAL have as bad, if not worse traffic than CA and they don't have the water issue.

People are leaving CA and will continue to do so. Locally it's probably been a story. It's national now. Why do you think Texas is so popular? AZ. Californians are moving in droves to places like Bozeman, MT or Boisie, ID where brrrrrrrrrrr, it gets a little cold.

Check out your Uhaul rates chief, math doesn't lie. That shreds your narrative. Housing is always delayed in reacting given the transaction timeline and nature of the business. CA is in trouble. More taxes, fines and fees are coming your way like a tsunami. That kills property value regardless of climate. I've lived it here in IL and CA is meeting the day of reckoning. Not if, it's when.

WookieMan says

Bitcoin says

The buyer in California makes too much for a stimulus check. Low household income people (below 150k) cant afford houses in CA.

Yup... the house full of 12-15 illegals. $20k stimulus doesn't get you you heading in the right direction at all with an FHA loan?

20k ROFL

Someone needs a reality check of what a decent house costs in CA. 20k!! Muahahahahahahahah, maybe try that in flyover country like IL

And besides that, those people that get their stimulus check dont save it is my guess. If those people are smart they invest it in the stock market or Bitcoin. But I doubt it....they will pay bills or credit card balances.....Dude, if you want to buy in places like CA, you need a lot of money. Thanks for the laugh though.....20k!

And regarding the exodus that we hear about every year for the last 10 years......yawn.....wake me up when traffic dies down.....i would love an exodus. Was at the gun store this morning and there was a freaking long line 30minutes before it opened. Stores, freeways, shopping malls.....packed. Keep dreamin of your CA exodus.

HunterTits says

Biden is lifting the floodgates of H1Bs for his Globalist masters. Soon another wave of Indians & Chinese with lots of cash will flood CA housing markets.

yep. Haters keep talking about a CA exodus for a decade if not longer.....for any person leaving CA we see 2 foreigners in line to get in.

Bitcoin says

for any person leaving CA we see 2 foreigners in line to get in.

And this is good? They send the money back to the homeland. Extracting wealth from your state and the nation. You shouldn't want this regardless of home values.

WookieMan says

Bitcoin says

for any person leaving CA we see 2 foreigners in line to get in.

And this is good?

Nobody is saying anything about good or bad. We are simply saying that your CA exodus story is a fairytale. Just because people want it to happen since a decade doesnt mean thats reality. sry

personally, I would love a CA exodus. I dont want to pay full price or over asking price for my next rental investment.

Bitcoin says

Nobody is saying anything about good or bad. We are simply saying that your CA exodus story is a fairytale. Just because people want it to happen since a decade doesnt mean thats reality. sry

Not wishing a CA exodus. Just noting what is happening. Not sure how else to explain it.

I don't know who is leaving California, but I recently met a few of them.
They have a lot of fuckin money and don't like being screwed for the privilege of being in California.
Most recently I met at the Palm Beach Boat Show.
$28 plus 20 bucks to park kept out the riff raff.
I went to visit an old friend who builds custom yachts in Maine.
They knew him and stopped by too. One had a place in Catalina Island, wow. The other sold a place in Palo Alto.
Funny that rich geezers buy yachts, they haven't the energy to actually use them very much.
I think some people just hate getting screwed and prefer to visit from out of state.
I heard of a guy in San Diego who became a Texas resident, and donated the Diego house to his college. He made an agreement that he lives there rent free.
Another guy I met in Texas has a house in San Rafael but he is a Texas resident.

I believe that until the foreclosures begin again, now is a tough time to buy a place at least where I like.

I think houses are a questionable investment to rent out, but everyone has his preference.

WookieMan says

Not sure how else to explain it.

Its just your talk, not a reality.

clambo says

I think houses are a questionable investment to rent out, but everyone has his preference.

long term housing goes up. dips are buying opportunities. Say you buy a rental for 600k and pay 200k down. your 5-10% appreciation for your 600k house needs to be compared to investing 200k in the stock market. in my example i am assuming I am breaking even (PITI - rent - maintenance - taxes) the first few years. After that I am making money.
Obviously, lots of variables here (interest rates, macro economics, etc)

Long term houses rise, and so do stocks.
Discussions of putting $200k down are strange because it assumes someone has let their 200k sit in the bank to be liquid.
Or, he sold something to get the money.
Few people get paid the bucks to save 200k in cash, but some do of course (like my father).
Anyway, you can get income and appreciate capital in real estate or investments.
Investments are taxed favorably, are liquid, and the entry fee is low to get started.
The broke people I know all wish someone would lend them the down payment.
It lands on my deaf ears : "rotsa ruck."
addendum
I'm happy I don't worry about wear and tear on my mutual funds, rising property taxes and fees, and the inability to evict deadbeats because the government prevents me.
My friend is bummed out, he owns a building in Hayward full of deadbeats.

clambo says

Long term houses rise, and so do stocks.
Discussions of putting $200k down are strange because it assumes someone has let their 200k sit in the bank to be liquid.
Or, he sold something to get the money.
Few people get paid the bucks to save 200k in cash, but some do of course (like my father).
Anyway, you can get income and appreciate capital in real estate or investments.
Investments are taxed favorably, are liquid, and the entry fee is low to get started.
The broke people I know all wish someone would lend them the down payment.
It lands on my deaf ears : "rotsa ruck."
addendum
I'm happy I don't worry about wear and tear on my mutual funds, rising property taxes and fees, and the inability to evict deadbeats because the government prevents me.
My friend is bummed out, he owns a building in Hayward full of deadbeats.

Around your midlife you should have enough liquid investments such as stocks and funds so that selling 10%-40% of those will give you a 200k down-payment. So you can buy a house if you want and keep investing.

clambo says

I'm happy I don't worry about wear and tear on my mutual funds, rising property taxes and fees, and the inability to evict deadbeats because the government prevents me.
My friend is bummed out, he owns a building in Hayward full of deadbeats.

Great point. Everyone dips their toes in the water of all types of investment. Real estate is a pain in the ass if that's not your profession as an investment. And I know we'll get the people that say it's smooth sailing, they haven't had to do anything in 10 years. That's pure bull shit.

If you're going to work, a business can pay you back exponentially more than stocks or real estate. It's not for everyone for sure, especially if you don't have a specific skill or niche you're interested in. It's worked for my family and allows me to dick around here a bunch and not worry about money. Valuations don't matter until you sell, but we can live extremely comfortably if we could sell today and retire. I'm 37.

I've been hesitant to get back into the real estate market, but we're thinking of getting a vacation rental in St. Thomas. St. John would be better, but more money. We'll see what's on the market in October, but we might pull the trigger when we're down there.

It's a perfect non-passport tropical place to go. I unfortunately don't think pandemics (and other bull shit) are going away and it's US territory. Cruises are still done for a while. Without them, people are traveling differently and I'm not certain cruise lines get back to their former glory even as an NCL shareholder. So I'm not seeing the island being packed with 4-10 cruise ships.

Puerto Rico is another consideration, but beaches just aren't that great. Inland rain forest and hiking are fun, but that gets boring quick. Vieques is cool, but the ferry system is pure trash. I'd have to get a private pilots license for that to make sense as well since it's so far from SJU by car and then ferry. That's a full ass travel day.

mell says

Around your midlife you should have enough liquid investments such as stocks and funds so that selling 10%-40% of those will give you a 200k down-payment. So you can buy a house if you want and keep investing.

Should. Tell that to over half the population that can't reach into their bank account for a $400 emergency.

Onvacation says

mell says

Around your midlife you should have enough liquid investments such as stocks and funds so that selling 10%-40% of those will give you a 200k down-payment. So you can buy a house if you want and keep investing.

yep, 100% agree.

WookieMan says

Everyone dips their toes in the water of all types of investment. Real estate is a pain in the ass if that's not your profession as an investment.

Some people actually have fun doing it! AND make money. Do we work hard for it? Sure....and you have to have skills. (knowing how to repair/fix things helps and knowing how to talk to people is a big factor too). Be good to your tenants.....in most cases they are good to you too. I rather charge less rent and have them long term then charge premium and have high turnover (with vacancy periods). Vetting tenants upfront is crucial. There is a looong checklist to go through before you accept someone as a tenant.

Bitcoin says

You put 20-30% down on the house but gain 5% annually in appreciation on the entire house value.

Leverage works both ways.

Your downpayment can be wiped out by a couple of bad years. And it does happen.

And consider that that house is draining your money for property taxes, insurance, and maintenance literally forever.

WookieMan says

And this is good? They send the money back to the homeland. Extracting wealth from your state and the nation. You shouldn't want this regardless of home values.

Not really. Just a small amount. Mostly they pay their rent/mortgage with it.