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Bailout Investing

By WineHorror1 follow WineHorror1   2021 Mar 18, 12:20pm 423 views   37 comments   watch   nsfw   quote   share    


Is bailout investing a thing? Will any bailout money boost particular stocks?
1   Bitcoin   ignore (16)   2021 Mar 18, 12:37pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

I bought all kinds of recovery stocks during March/April 2020 and they are doing well....would I buy them now at current levels....probably not.

Airliners I bought (AA, LUV, Delta) and Cruise liners (NCL, CCL). they all did extremely well from the lows.

I need stock tips as well....it was easy last year.
2   WookieMan   ignore (7)   2021 Mar 18, 1:54pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Bitcoin says
Airliners I bought (AA, LUV, Delta) and Cruise liners (NCL, CCL). they all did extremely well from the lows.

So you are a.... well you know the thing. Thanks for confirming. You've invested in two stocks that I've said I have, yet mock me and you have some of the same. Not understanding that I was adding to existing positions. Someone likely bought LUV and NCL because I said it was a good bet, but can't admit that.

Lots of spamming going on lately.

WineHorror1 says
Is bailout investing a thing? Will any bailout money boost particular stocks?

Automotive stocks should do well. People will buy cars. Won't be a home run, but should be safe. Travel (hotel and air travel) still might do well, but that's hard to tell until the school year ends as most the country is back in school physically or going back after SB. People may pay off debts too, so bank balance sheets/cc's might look better. I don't think there's anything obvious at this point like cruise lines or airlines last year for appreciation.

Not sure how much of this hits Q1 reporting given direct deposit tax filers are just getting it this week supposedly. Biden and the Dem's are the wild card. Is there another bailout/stimulus or big legislation on the way? Tax raises? Oil would be one area to look at, but probably too late at this point, I haven't checked though.

I honestly don't short things, but I'm probably looking into it. The DOW has basically doubled from when Trump got into office at this point. So many P/E's have gone full retard. If it hasn't happened, I'd track commercial real estate big time. Restaurant specific or office. Distressed REIT's to buy or REIT's that are still riding high with poor fundamentals that you could short. The game has changed with the work from home Covid shit. Besides grocery or gas, I haven't been to a retail store in a year. I need to get a new driver for golf, but I don't see me going to a non-food, gas or housing retailer (HD/Lowes) for the next year.

Restaurant chain stocks might get a boost as Covid "goes away" so that's another place to look for deals. Still got places like Chicago at 50% capacity which includes some big publicly traded chains. Revenue is only going to increase as things open up. Hard to time though because Q1 '21 could be super negative and there's a drop, but they're on solid financial ground and recover bigly in Q2-4.
3   theoakman   ignore (0)   2021 Mar 18, 2:44pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

During 2008, there was a Wall St. guy on another forum I was on who had a TBTF bond buying strategy. He was picking up crappy bonds that were yielding 4% but selling for 10 cents on the dollar because they were almost certain to default. These were basically banks. Of course, they were all bailed out and started trading for 100 cents on the dollar. So he would make a shit ton on the bailout and earn 40% in interest payments on his investment by holding the bond. No one believed his strategy would work but it did. Takes balls. I have to think that most of these rich people had inside information on what would get bailed out so they come in and swoop it up first.
4   clambo   ignore (5)   2021 Mar 18, 3:42pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

The "stimulus" is just 1400 that goes to people not making above $75,000

I think if I were interested in a trade, I would consider AAPL.

People are going to spend that 1400 somewhere, I predict the Apple Store.

Apple is about 20 bucks below its high.

But, the essence of investing is buying mutual funds and leaving them alone.

Try to max out your Roth IRA, Biden and his idiot ilk want to raise taxes on us.
5   Zak   ignore (0)   2021 Mar 18, 4:47pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

@wookie
I got in on Ford back in March 2020, it recovered up to about $14/share, and has been dropping again. I sold a few days ago to lock the gains, and I didn't see that much upside from here esp after a bad earnings report. But in a rising market, anyone can look like a winner. I'm currently tracking the follwoing, but haven't pulled the trigger yet:

TSCDD
BGAOF
CELTF
PIFMF
AUTLF
QIWI
TGRNF
DBMBF
GEO
AOMOY
STBMF
ASOZY
SRHBY

trying to find things that aren't at 52 week highs, pay a decent dividend.. have some foreign exposure, and I'm still evaluating balance sheets to make sure they don't have gruesome Debt . Let me know if any of them pop out to you.
6   ThatGuy   ignore (0)   2021 Mar 18, 6:55pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Physical Silver - PSLV

I'm all in, and you should be too

look up #wallstreetsilver and #silversqueeze
7   WineHorror1   ignore (2)   2021 Mar 18, 7:08pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

ThatGuy says
Physical Silver - PSLV

I'm all in, and you should be too

look up #wallstreetsilver and #silversqueeze

What is going to happen that will EVER convince the TPTB to allow phiz to find it's true price?
8   ThatGuy   ignore (0)   2021 Mar 18, 7:21pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

WineHorror1 says
ThatGuy says
Physical Silver - PSLV

I'm all in, and you should be too

look up #wallstreetsilver and #silversqueeze

What is going to happen that will EVER convince the TPTB to allow phiz to find it's true price?


Basel 3

On July 1, Banks will be able to replace Fiat with Gold as a Tier 1 asset

My theory, is on that date, TPTB will reverse their stance, and work to increase the price of 'phiz'

Gold will increase, but Silver has been papered over 140 to 1

The price will absolutely explode when people figure it out and it retracts to its historical (and physical qty) value vs. Gold
9   Bitcoin   ignore (16)   2021 Mar 18, 7:23pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Zak says
I got in on Ford back in March 2020


Yep, I am in on the EV plays as well.....GM, F, NIO
11   WineHorror1   ignore (2)   2021 Mar 18, 8:40pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

ThatGuy says
but Silver has been papered over 140 to 1

I assume that means there are 140 claims per ounce, correct? If so, banks know this, correct? If banks know this than purchasing sliver enmasse means they will chase the price up.
12   WineHorror1   ignore (2)   2021 Mar 18, 8:46pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Who has the tons of phiz silver that the banks will be purchasing from?
13   clambo   ignore (5)   2021 Mar 18, 9:17pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

silver no way Jose.
anecdote herewith.
about 2010 my friend said "get out of stocks! Buy silver!"
He had kids, so he got 5 grand from his taxes.
He bought silver coins.
I bought Apple stock for the third time.
Over a few years silver rose, so he bought some silver at $50+/Oz.
He's underwater today with his silver.
I can buy a house with my Apple shares
14   WookieMan   ignore (7)   2021 Mar 18, 9:18pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

WookieMan says
Not understanding that I was adding to existing positions.

You sir are a.... well you know the thing.
Bitcoin says
I also mock you because your portfolio is tiny (100 shares of LUV).

At least I own some.
15   Bitcoin   ignore (16)   2021 Mar 18, 9:37pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

WookieMan says
personal

My hope is that personal attacks by moderator Wookie stop. Let's discuss the topic not each other.
16   Bitcoin   ignore (16)   2021 Mar 18, 9:39pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

clambo says
silver no way Jose.
anecdote herewith.
about 2010 my friend said "get out of stocks! Buy silver!"
He had kids, so he got 5 grand from his taxes.
He bought silver coins.
I bought Apple stock for the third time.
Over a few years silver rose, so he bought some silver at $50+/Oz.
He's underwater today with his silver.
I can buy a house with my Apple shares


I see it 100% the same. Even bought more AAPL during this dip as well.
17   stfu   ignore (0)   2021 Mar 19, 4:05am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

clambo says
But, the essence of investing is buying mutual funds and leaving them alone.


This times 1000.

I would only add that I wouldn't hold mutual funds in a taxable account - I would use an ETF instead.
18   clambo   ignore (5)   2021 Mar 19, 6:33am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

STFU, yeah, you have a point.
I have some index funds in a regular account and they don’t produce a big 1099.
Vanguard has a few “Tax Managed” funds which are like index funds which are managed a little bit to produce no 1099 or a very small one.
I own just one ETF, (FLSW) but I don’t have much money in it.
19   WookieMan   ignore (7)   2021 Mar 19, 7:30am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Bitcoin says
My hope is that personal attacks by moderator Wookie stop. Let's discuss the topic not each other.

My hope is that spam stops and others personal attacks against me stop. I haven't been moderating comments, but the time has come.
20   Onvacation   ignore (6)   2021 Mar 19, 7:48am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

WookieMan says
Bitcoin says
My hope is that personal attacks by moderator Wookie stop. Let's discuss the topic not each other.

My hope is that spam stops and others personal attacks against me stop. I haven't been moderating comments, but the time has come.

@Patrick how about you start banning people with more than 5 ignores? Oh wait, I like it here.
21   WookieMan   ignore (7)   2021 Mar 19, 9:21am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Onvacation says
Patrick how about you start banning people with more than 5 ignores? Oh wait, I like it here.

Lol. Good one.

The multiple posts/threads on a topic that clearly no one is interested in is clearly spam. 13 ignores in months is a record. The constant repetitive comments that don't answer a single question. I don't know, sell me on BTC and maybe I'll change my mind. Until that happens it just appears to be spam and a scam.

People can trade it all they want and make money. Stop with the "investment" spam though is my beef along with it being a scam and another fool will buy into it, which is the scam. Not one crypto person here has explained it, because it's nothing and I think some of them know that but are playing the trade. Good for them. I think some legitimately are mentally disabled and don't know what they're doing.

ZERO assets. ZERO regulation. No one transacts with it outside of criminals. Exchanges are not secure. Literally can lose all your bitcoin if you forget a password key or lose it. Or the exchange gets hacked. Still taxable. Valued in fiat, so if fiat goes to shit it's worthless because the fiat is worthless. Reliant on massive amounts of electricity. No idea who is pulling the yo yo up and down or who owns it. 24/7 trading so that while you're sleeping you could lose 20-30%. 51% attack. List goes on and on with all the negatives.

I'd love for any of the BTC lovers to explain away anything I just said. I'll wait.... I'm staying on topic too ;)
23   clambo   ignore (5)   2021 Mar 19, 9:56am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

BTC looks bad to me.
Just glancing at the chart, between Dec 2017 and November 2020 it didn’t do much.
By comparison the much superior W5000 (total stock market) did better (27,000 to 37,000)
Of course, the W5000 is actually equity ownership, including some dividends.
I don’t know what the BTC “shares” represent.

Want to make real money? Get a Florida apartment and move in some escorts and charge high rent.
South Florida is just crawling with horny dudes with money and poor girls who all seem to have loose morals.
24   Bitcoin   ignore (16)   2021 Mar 19, 10:39am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

clambo says
BTC looks bad to me.


Yep, its the best performing asset.
From experience, I can tell you I invested 28K back in November 2020. (1.9 BTC).

Now, BTC is above 55k.....you do the math :) and its not even been 6 months.

And that's just BTC......ADA, Link, dot, ETH are killing it as well.
25   clambo   ignore (5)   2021 Mar 19, 3:42pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

but it's not actually an asset.
anything that can pop up quickly after doing nothing for years is as likely to fall as quickly.
26   Onvacation   ignore (6)   2021 Mar 19, 5:43pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Maybe the bitcoin bubble is caused by a bunch of payoffs to the people that stole the election.
27   Bitcoin   ignore (16)   2021 Mar 19, 7:45pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

clambo says
but it's not actually an asset.


Yep, its amazing. It actually is. Its the best performing asset. Some expert call it digital gold which I agree with.
28   Bitcoin   ignore (16)   2021 Mar 19, 7:55pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Really like the performance on my Airline stocks. LUV, delta and AA performed amazingly well.....for a stock.
Crypto is a different universe.....Bitcoin, ETH, ADA,......i expect a 5-10X. Stocks....I am fine with a 100% gain.
Thanks
29   RandalRay   ignore (0)   2021 Mar 19, 9:08pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

I bought Jack in the Box on the advise of my financial advisor and I’m up over 10% in the last week.
30   Patrick   ignore (1)   2021 Mar 19, 10:00pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

stfu says
clambo says
But, the essence of investing is buying mutual funds and leaving them alone.


This times 1000.


I politely disagree.

I say that you can just buy those same stocks for yourself and create your own personal mutual fund, but without their commissions and without their churn.

And then leave them alone.
31   clambo   ignore (5)   2021 Mar 20, 6:50am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

My neighbor also thought mutual funds were expensive to own
The best mutual funds have very low fees 0.05%, or even 0%. (Fidelity Zero)
Others with excellent management are still inexpensive (Primecap Odyssey 0.65%, Vanguard Equity Income 0.19%, managed by Wellington in Boston)

Some people don’t have enough cash to buy 50 stocks for a diverse (=safer) portfolio, while anyone who has $100 can buy a Fidelity mutual fund.

A convenience of mutual funds is you can spend them in various ways; 1. take dividends and capital gains in cash 2. Sell a $ amount per month 3. Sell a % per month 4. Sell shares at your whim

Buying individual stocks is the most fun, but I always want most of my dough in mutual funds because I can forget about them. You sometimes need to sell your stock or suffer the consequences.

My first stock buy was Sun Microsystems in the 90’s internet boom.
I quickly saw a huge gain. I didn’t pay much attention after that, then poof.
My father had inherited shares of Wachovia worth $600,000
I advised him to go to a Fidelity store and buy a mutual fund.
He held the Wachovia instead, and poof, $600,000 magically disappeared.
32   mell   ignore (6)   2021 Mar 20, 9:10am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

clambo says
My neighbor also thought mutual funds were expensive to own
The best mutual funds have very low fees 0.05%, or even 0%. (Fidelity Zero)
Others with excellent management are still inexpensive (Primecap Odyssey 0.65%, Vanguard Equity Income 0.19%, managed by Wellington in Boston)

Some people don’t have enough cash to buy 50 stocks for a diverse (=safer) portfolio, while anyone who has $100 can buy a Fidelity mutual fund.

A convenience of mutual funds is you can spend them in various ways; 1. take dividends and capital gains in cash 2. Sell a $ amount per month 3. Sell a % per month 4. Sell shares at your whim

Buying individual stocks is the most fun, but I always want most of my dough in mutual funds because I can forget about them. You sometimes need to sell your stock or suffer the consequences.

My first stock buy was Sun Microsystems in the 90’s internet boom.
I quickly saw a huge gain. I didn’t pay much attention after that, then poof.
My fa...

You can't compare old tech and even financial stocks to today's monopolistic environment. Sun was an actual supplier of great and useful hardware with in house chip r & d, not some cultish internet company of today with fan boy followings. Chances of seeing bankruptcies in large tech or financial stocks are virtually zero as long as the monopolistic grip remains and they're perma supported by the politicians and the Fed. Even IBM which has clearly been losing influence over the years is retaining a pretty high market cap. Yet they may not yield much after the recent Covid run ups, you can always go with agriculture, biotech, energy and defense sectors.
33   clambo   ignore (5)   2021 Mar 20, 9:55am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

I would be happy to find another Sun Microsystems, but my point is that you must observe the situation and know when to sell, whereas mutual funds not as much.
34   theoakman   ignore (0)   2021 Mar 20, 1:48pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Mutual fund managers have consistently underperformed index funds. If you want to forget about your investments, then quality blue chip dividends or an etf of them is your jam. You can even set them to reinvest to obtain more shares.
35   Patrick   ignore (1)   2021 Mar 20, 9:04pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

clambo says
The best mutual funds have very low fees 0.05%, or even 0%. (Fidelity Zero)


I don't see how 0% is possible.

The casino cannot keep the lights on without taking cash from the customers.

Fidelity Zero must also be extracting cash from their customers somehow. Maybe by taking payments to direct the investment into certain stocks instead of what is best for the customers.
36   Misc   ignore (0)   2021 Mar 21, 1:00am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

They can charge negative management fees and still make money.

Right now most online brokerages don't charge a commission fee to trade stocks. They make plenty. They could pay you to trade stocks and they would make money.

Yes, it is that rigged.
37   clambo   ignore (5)   2021 Mar 21, 7:12am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

I believe that Fidelity Zero is a “loss leader” for Fidelity.

The people and resources needed to manage an index fund are minimal anyway.

Managed mutual funds are a great business; all cash, and the more money the fund attracts, the more profit for the fund company.

Assume a mutual fund has a 0.50 % management fee; with $100 million invested, they don’t make a lot.
But, how about when the fund gets $10 billion in it?

Fidelity manages over 1,000 billion. They can afford a free index fund or two.

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