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Deaths from Wuhan Virus are not all that much higher than normal flu deaths


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2020 Dec 31, 11:15pm   935 views  48 comments

by Patrick   ➕follow (55)   💰tip   ignore  

https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/12/30/what-is-left-to-say/

Here is the graph of overall mortality for all ages, in all countries. The graph starts at the beginning of 2017 and carries on to almost the end of 2020.



As you can see, in each winter there is an increase in deaths. In 2020, nothing much happened at the start of the year, then we had – what must have been – the COVID19 spike. The tall pointy bit around week 15.

It started in late March and was pretty much finished by mid-May. Now, we are in winter, and the usual winter spike appears. It seems to be around the same size as winter 2017/18. It also seems to have passed the peak and is now falling. But it could jump up again. [The figures in the most recent weeks can always be a bit inaccurate, as it can take some time for all the data to arrive]

Two things stand out. First, there was an obvious ‘COVID19 spike’. Second, what we are seeing at present does not differ greatly from previous years. The normal winter spike in deaths. ...

So, again, what have I learned about COVID19? I learned that all Governments are floundering about, all claiming to have exerted some sort of control over this disease and ignoring all evidence to the contrary. In truth, they have achieved nothing. As restrictions and lockdowns have become more severe, in many cases the number of infections has simply risen and risen, completely unaffected by anything that has been done.

The official solution is, of course, more restrictions. ‘We just haven’t restricted people enough!’ Sigh. When something doesn’t work, the answer is not to keep doing it with even greater fervour. The real answer is to stop doing it and try something else instead.

I have also learned that, in most countries, COVID19 appears to be seasonal. It went away – everywhere – in the summer. It came back in the autumn/winter, as various viruses do.

On its return is has been, generally, far less deadly. Much you would expect. The most vulnerable died on first exposure, and far fewer people had any resistance to it, at all. Now, a number of people do have some immunity, and may of the vulnerable are already dead.

Which means that, in this so-called second wave COVID19 is of no greater an issue than a moderately bad flu season.

If I were to recommend actions. I would recommend that we stop testing – unless someone is admitted to hospital and is seriously ill. Mass testing is simply causing mass panic and achieves absolutely nothing. At great cost. We should also just get on with our lives as before. We should just vaccinate those at greatest risk of dying, the elderly and vulnerable, and put this rather embarrassing episode of mad banner waving behind us.

Hopefully, in time, we will learn something. Which is that we should not, ever, run about panicking, following the madly waved banners… ever again. However, I suspect that we will. This pandemic is going to be a model for all mass panicking stupidity in the future. Because to do otherwise, would be to admit that we made a pig’s ear of it this time. Far too many powerful reputations at stake to allow that.

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1   HeadSet   2021 Jan 1, 7:49am  

This pandemic is going to be a model for all mass panicking stupidity in the future.

No, it will be a case study in the Oligarch's Handbook" in the chapter on how to destroy a prosperous economy that is managed by a political rival who threatens your power. A side graphic will show how to use a virus quarantine as an excuse for mass mail out voting, with the mass mail out being cover for creating massive fraudulent votes in strategic districts.
2   WookieMan   2021 Jan 1, 9:30am  

HeadSet says
This pandemic is going to be a model for all mass panicking stupidity in the future.

No, it will be a case study in the Oligarch's Handbook" in the chapter on how to destroy a prosperous economy that is managed by a political rival who threatens your power. A side graphic will show how to use a virus quarantine as an excuse for mass mail out voting, with the mass mail out being cover for creating massive fraudulent votes in strategic districts.

That covers it pretty well. Trump's biggest failure was listening to Fauci and Birx, and not firing them. Any intelligent person knows you cannot stop a virus once it's out. Look at everything still shut down and it's spreading like a dry prairie on fire with 40mph winds. I'd rather have burned 1,000 acres quick instead of 10,000 slowly. That's where we're at. Should have just overwhelmed the hospital (possibly) and let those close to dying anyway die. Twisted view, but would have been better long term. And now we're just killing normally healthy people via addiction, suicide, not getting treatments, wearing masks, etc.
3   Patrick   2021 Jan 1, 10:14am  

I should have included this quote about the Spanish Flu (which killed my great grandfather):

Is it deadlier than influenza? Well, it is certainly deadlier than some strains of influenza. Indeed, most strains. However, Spanish flu was estimated to have killed fifty million, when the world’s population was about a fifth of what it is now. So, COVID19 is definitely less deadly than that one. About as deadly as the influenzas of 1957 and 1967. Probably.


So less than 2 million have died from this, but 50 million died from Spanish Flu with a population of 20% of what it is now.

So the Spanish Flu was 5 x (50 / 2) = 125 times deadlier.

Now that was a problem. This bullshit is not a problem.
4   WookieMan   2021 Jan 1, 10:32am  

Patrick says
So less than 2 million have died from this, but 50 million died from Spanish Flu with a population of 20 of what it is now.

So the Spanish Flu was 5 x (50 / 2) = 125 times deadlier.

Now that was a problem. This bullshit is not a problem.

We could multiply it by 10 and it's still not a problem. Especially with who it kills. It's sad and I don't want to see anyone die, bu I wouldn't want to be 70+ right now. And even then ~95% of those people survive. Once 80+ your the walking dead in almost all cases. You're some ailment from death. Everyone I've known 80+ is generally miserable with a bin of drugs to keep them going. That's who we're trying to save and shutting down our economy for. People that have lived a completely full life and beyond.
5   Patrick   2021 Jan 1, 10:54am  

My mother-in-law has a cousin who is 104.

He had colon cancer at one point, decades ago, and the chemo was so awful he just said fuck it and waited to die. But he didn't die. He got better.

I've met him a several times, and I think his secret (aside from being Armenian) is living in his own house in a close community with two daughters nearby and and other relatives who really care about him. He's a generous and happy guy. Loves to give people gifts. Totally remembers me each time I see him.

Relatives are worried that this thing might knock him off, but so far, no.
6   rocketjoe79   2021 Jan 1, 11:05am  

If the data are actually available after the corona virus subsides, we will find out 1/3 of the deaths were due to other causes. There is a financial incentive to COVID Death coding.
7   theoakman   2021 Jan 16, 7:10pm  

ThreeBays says
I recall you predicted 10 times less deaths than have already happened in America. How wrong do you have to be before you will admit it Patrick?


He could not have anticipated the media, big pharma, and the left wing democrats doing all they could to stop doctors from using meds that appeared to prevent hospitalization. He also couldn't predict a wave of democrat governors deliberately sending positive patients to nursing homes. That being said, the "experts" were saying 2 million dead. Seems like they were off by 1.8 million.
8   MisdemeanorRebel   2021 Jan 16, 8:52pm  

ThreeBays says
Patrick was clearly wrong by a large margin and that's proven.


Big Pharma and the Karens and Chicoms were wrong about HCQ, they actively opposed it and probably contributed to half the deaths in the country.

They were also PROVEN wrong about Masks, which are useless. We knew Masks were useless on a Public Health Mass Level from past experience with Flus, SARS, MERS, etc. in Asian Urban areas of which dozens of studies comparing thousands of non-maskers to maskers were done IRL during those outbreaks.

And that it was mostly political fearmongering is proven by the characteristics of who died and the fact that States that were fiercely devoted to COVID Crap have been fighting any substantial let ups in lockdown until just before Trump was allegedly leaving office.

That putting the recovering elderly back in nursing homes was probably the largest vector of the whole disease. And so were H1B visas and the Jan-March Democratic insistence that masks were useless and in fact racist, from Pelosi to Farwell to the NYC Dept of Health Commish.

We have Mask Karen Governors, Mayors, Reps on video ignoring their own protocols they said was a matter of life and death by dining at the French Laundry and getting Blow and Dries illegally.

NOW, the WHO is coming out and saying what marginalized, henpecked Experts said for months, that the PCR is way too sensitive and creates too many false positives in regards to COVID. This is because Chicoms now no longer need it and want Americans back to work to buy more Chicom crap so they can finish subverting the USA.

Finally, in about a year or two, we'll find out the number of COVID deaths was greatly exaggerated by at least 30%. Maybe 80%.

I predict in the final analysis, about 100k-150k COVID deaths, or a somewhat more than a bad flu season but over a period 2-3x as long as a flu season. And almost universally over 65 with multiple comorbidies.
9   mell   2021 Jan 16, 9:19pm  

ThreeBays says
And dragons & fairies are real. Keep going with the fiction.

Hey what happened to Sweden, I thought they were right and were going to have herd immunity by middle of 2020. It must be the US Democrats that sabotaged Sweden.


What are you talking about? Sweden is doing better than the US with no lockdowns or masks. Nobody said that doing nothing will get lesser people sick. But the percent of infections and deaths are roughly the same everywhere, with lesser deaths in countries that have been using hcq and ivermectin. So keep peddling the great idea to wreck the economy on top of getting roughly the inevitable same infection curve/deaths and percentages. If you add drug abuse and suicide partially fueled by economic and social despair the US is doing much worse. Keep defending the demonrat murderers who withheld Ivermectin and HCQ purely for political (and financial) reasons! Ivermectin works.
10   Patrick   2021 Jan 16, 9:19pm  

rocketjoe79 says
There is a financial incentive to COVID Death coding.



Yes, but not just that!

- tech billionaires greatly increased their fortunes by eliminating small retail businessmen, forcing us to buy online
- the state has an excuse for tracking everyone you personally talk to, a Soviet dream scenario
- the recent "aid" pacakages went mostly to big businesses and banks, eg airlines, organizations with a log of influence; common people get almost nothing
- it was helpful in forcing a reversal of the economy, which was doing embarrassingly well under Trump, so this helped swing the election to the point where cheating was easy
11   Patrick   2021 Jan 16, 9:22pm  

ThreeBays says
I recall you predicted 10 times less deaths than have already happened in America. How wrong do you have to be before you will admit it Patrick?


@ThreeBays Please find that quote. I predicted about 100,000 iirc.

I also believe that the death toll is greatly inflated for the reasons mentioned above. Did no one at all really die of the flu in 2020?
12   mell   2021 Jan 16, 9:27pm  

And herd immunity is roughly at 70% for Covid (depends on how contagious a virus is), so no country is there yet, but many will get there by spring/summer, just a few more months.
14   Patrick   2021 Jan 16, 9:34pm  

Abstract
As COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) continues to rapidly spread throughout the world, the incidence varies greatly among different countries. These differences raise the question whether nations with a lower incidence share any medical commonalities that could be used not only to explain that lower incidence but also to provide guidance for potential treatments elsewhere. Such a treatment would be particularly valuable if it could be used as a prophylactic against SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) transmission, thereby effectively slowing the spread of the disease while we await the wide availability of safe and effective vaccines. Here, we show that countries with routine mass drug administration of prophylactic chemotherapy including ivermectin have a significantly lower incidence of COVID-19. Prophylactic use of ivermectin against parasitic infections is most common in Africa and we hence show that the reported correlation is highly significant both when compared among African nations as well as in a worldwide context. We surmise that this may be connected to ivermectin's ability to inhibit SARS-CoV-2 replication, which likely leads to lower infection rates. However, other pathways must exist to explain the persistence of such an inhibitory effect after serum levels of ivermectin have declined. It is suggested that ivermectin be evaluated for potential off-label prophylactic use in certain cases to help bridge the time until a safe and effective vaccine becomes available.
15   Patrick   2021 Jan 16, 9:49pm  

And the WHO, scammers that they are, says to count everything that is "clinically compatible" as death from Wuhan Virus:

A COVID-19 death is defined for surveillance purposes as a death resulting from a clinically compatible illness in a probable or confirmed COVID-19 case, unless there is a clear alternative cause of death that cannot be related to COVID-19 disease (e.g. trauma).


https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/estimating-mortality-from-covid-19

Flu is no doubt "clinically compatible" because the symptoms are similar.

They do make exceptions for, say, trauma. Those are the kinds of things that even they cannot spin as a virus death. But everything else, sure, count it!
16   Onvacation   2021 Jan 17, 7:31am  

ThreeBays says
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm.


"Resource not available"

Why do you suppose that is?
17   Patrick   2021 Jan 17, 10:46am  

ThreeBays says
Is there any way to search comments by user?


No, but I should implement that
18   Onvacation   2021 Jan 17, 10:57am  

ThreeBays says

Fixed the link above.

Still broke. Try this one:
https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku

As you can see if you LOOK at the CDC's data 154 kids less than 18 years old have died WITH covid since this "pandemic" has started. An additional 1,235 youth between 18 and 29 have died WITH this plague. The number of dead WITH the Wuhan does not spike until after you look at the victims over 65.

Why do you really think the lockdowns are worth it?

If you are an old fat fuck you're gonna die. Let the healthy youth live. We're killing them.
19   mell   2021 Jan 17, 12:49pm  

ThreeBays says
mell says
So keep peddling the great idea to wreck the economy on top of getting roughly the inevitable same infection curve/deaths and percentages.


Lockdowns clearly bent the curve, there's correlations everywhere to show that and had there not been an impact from lockdowns then there wouldn't be 2nd or 3rd waves.

Recent example in UK.


What you're seeing are natural peaks in first and 2nd waves as summer goes and winter comes as people hang out indoors during the cold season which increases infections. The effect of lockdowns are marginal, anything "gained' from people strictly obeying is lost by people passing it on within households (80%-90% of transmissions) and small indoor gatherings with friends as they have nowhere to go outdoors.
20   just_passing_through   2021 Jan 17, 12:52pm  

1918 flu had multiple waves over 3 years and no lock-downs.
21   mell   2021 Jan 17, 12:54pm  

just_passing_through says
1918 flu had multiple waves over 3 years and no lock-downs.


Right and one (there are others) big reason the flu is usually stronger in the winter is because people are mostly inside.
22   just_passing_through   2021 Jan 17, 12:55pm  

Hey, I gots an idear!

Maybe we can turn the entire country into a positive pressure system with laminar flow!

Side note along the same lines:

Maybe we can fix global warming by air conditioning the outside of our homes!

Do we control dogs or do dogs actually control us and make us think we are controlling them?

Wouldn't it be nice if all people spoke in triple negatives?
23   Shaman   2021 Jan 17, 12:58pm  

ThreeBays says
Lockdowns clearly bent the curve, there's correlations everywhere to show that and had there not been an impact from lockdowns then there wouldn't be 2nd or 3rd waves.


True, but it never prevented Covid deaths only postponed them. We had time thanks to lockdown 1 to figure out the virus and how to treat it. However the medical establishment refused to authorize ANY treatment besides ventilators which had a 90% kill rate. Despite knowing of more than a handful of regularly prescribed drugs that did much to prevent Covid death and help patients recover. This is either sheer and utter stupidity by the people who we generally regard as highly intelligent, or the goal all along was to maximize Covid deaths to instill fear and ensure a demand for vaccines. Which do you think is more likely?
24   MisdemeanorRebel   2021 Jan 17, 1:19pm  

And especially fought against establishing a cheap and effective treatment via HCQ+zinc+antibiotics, even though the science was against them and the need was dire.

There was a huge well funded Media campaign to besmirch HCQ, never forget it.
25   Onvacation   2021 Jan 17, 1:28pm  

just_passing_through says
Do we control dogs or do dogs actually control us and make us think we are controlling them?

If you don't know you shouldn't have a dog.
26   mell   2021 Jan 17, 2:11pm  

Out of the 25MM active cases worldwide 99.6% are now mild vs 0.4% serious. As it spreads and more cases haven been tested / discovered and adapted strains emerged, the severity dropped to a number similar of cold and flu-like illnesses. The only difference is the amount of immunity which is catching up, and once it's there yearly infections will also be no more different than the cold and flu, of course serious mutations are - while extremely rare - always possible like with the flu. It's pretty much back to normal already, yet many people still have have to wear face diapers and are on lockdown.
27   mell   2021 Jan 17, 2:13pm  

ThreeBays says
Shaman says
True, but it never prevented Covid deaths only postponed them. We had time thanks to lockdown 1 to figure out the virus and how to treat it. However the medical establishment refused to authorize ANY treatment besides ventilators which had a 90% kill rate. Despite knowing of more than a handful of regularly prescribed drugs that did much to prevent Covid death and help patients recover. This is either sheer and utter stupidity by the people who we generally regard as highly intelligent, or the goal all along was to maximize Covid deaths to instill fear and ensure a demand for vaccines. Which do you think is more likely?


Or maybe you're just believing conspiracies generated by completely distrustable sources over science. I'll put my money on that any day.


https://patrick.net/post/1337674/2021-01-17-stanford-study-questions-benefits-of-lockdowns-and-stay-at-home-orders

No benefits.
28   Onvacation   2021 Jan 17, 2:25pm  

Young healthy "essential workers" are still not dropping dead from covid the Wuhan flu. We all shop or know somebody that shops so we are all exposed to whatever viruses are out there anyway.

End the two week lockdown and mask mandate.
29   mell   2021 Jan 17, 2:28pm  

ThreeBays says
mell says
https://patrick.net/post/1337674/2021-01-17-stanford-study-questions-benefits-of-lockdowns-and-stay-at-home-orders

No benefits.


Bendavid & Ioannidis have no credibility as far as Covid studies.


Why? Who decides credibility? Ioannidis is actually very much respected around the world, esp. Europe. Did ap, cnn or google tell your that?
30   Onvacation   2021 Jan 17, 3:16pm  

ThreeBays says
empirical data over the 9 months

SO how many people under 50 do you think died WITH covid in the last nine months?

We have effective treatments for the Wuhan virus. We don't need any experimental biological agents injected in our arms. Stop this kabuki theatre of masks and lockdowns.

This is America. It was bad enough when we lost the fourth and more of the second amendment RIGHTS over the wars on drugs and terror but now they have stripped us of our first amendment right over an invisible enemy.
31   Robert Sproul   2021 Jan 17, 3:19pm  

ThreeBays says
Both of us dislike lockdowns; the difference is choosing to be honest or dishonest about the facts.

9 months into the pandemic 66% of adults reported feeling lonely, a stunning new record.
Suicide hotlines report an increase in calls of up to 600%.
Dramatic increases in alcohol abuse and drug addiction and relapse back into addiction by former users.
Estimates say that for each 1% increase in unemployment you will get 37,000 additional deaths per year. Fake numbers aside a conservative guess of a 10% increase in unemployment, that’s hundreds of thousands.
10s of thousands of bankruptcies.
Derailed school and career plans. The devastation goes on and on.
There is no way that this lockdown was worth it past two weeks to “Flatten the Curve”.
32   GlocknLoad   2021 Jan 17, 3:20pm  

WookieMan says
That's who we're trying to save and shutting down our economy for. People that have lived a completely full life and beyond.

Yep, criminal in my opinion. We are a nation where no one or group is more important than another. WTF?

These old people are stealing the younger generation's life experiences and more.
33   GlocknLoad   2021 Jan 17, 3:24pm  

Patrick says
Relatives are worried that this thing might knock him off, but so far, no.

One tough S.O.B.
34   GlocknLoad   2021 Jan 17, 3:25pm  

theoakman says
Seems like they were off by 1.8 million.

Probably even more since all they do is lie.
35   GlocknLoad   2021 Jan 17, 3:31pm  

mell says
ThreeBays says
And dragons & fairies are real. Keep going with the fiction.

Hey what happened to Sweden, I thought they were right and were going to have herd immunity by middle of 2020. It must be the US Democrats that sabotaged Sweden.


What are you talking about? Sweden is doing better than the US with no lockdowns or masks. Nobody said that doing nothing will get lesser people sick. But the percent of infections and deaths are roughly the same everywhere, with lesser deaths in countries that have been using hcq and ivermectin. So keep peddling the great idea to wreck the economy on top of getting roughly the inevitable same infection curve/deaths and percentages. If you add drug abuse and suicide partially fueled by economic and social despair the US is doing much worse. Keep defending the demonrat murderers who withheld Ivermectin and HCQ purely for political (and financial) reasons! Ivermectin works.

I have a feeling ThreeBays is a government employee, a retiree or a person who is able to work from home. These are the 3 categories of people who are not effected by lockdowns. They have nothing to lose by the economy being held down. He may even be a teacher. Why is it that teachers do not want to go back to the classroom but they still want to get P.A.I.D.?
36   GlocknLoad   2021 Jan 17, 3:35pm  

ThreeBays says
mell says
So keep peddling the great idea to wreck the economy on top of getting roughly the inevitable same infection curve/deaths and percentages.


Lockdowns clearly bent the curve, there's correlations everywhere to show that and had there not been an impact from lockdowns then there wouldn't be 2nd or 3rd waves.

Recent example in UK.


Both of us dislike lockdowns; the difference is choosing to be honest or dishonest about the facts.

No lockdowns or mask mandates in Florida. Don't they have the highest percentage of old people? Why is Florida doing so much better than NY and CA?
37   Robert Sproul   2021 Jan 17, 3:36pm  

GlocknLoad says
Why is Florida doing so much better than NY and CA?

Lock downs kill.
38   mell   2021 Jan 17, 4:14pm  

ThreeBays says
400,000+ recorded deaths.


Stanford Medicine Seroprevalence Study of Dialysis Patients Shows Fewer than One in 10 Adults Has Antibodies to COVID-19 Indicating Herd Immunity is Far Off


https://www.darkdaily.com/stanford-study-finds-fewer-than-one-in-10-adults-have-covid-19-antibodies/

Basically we're nowhere near peak infection, hospital overload, and deaths that would happen if the virus was allowed to spread freely.


Dialisys patients, surely you must be jesting! "Perfect" group representing the avg. person, people who hardly go anywhere and who can croak at contact with any moderate to severe virus. I expect them to have low serum prevalence. Most studies around the world with a real (averaged) focus group done as early as spring 2020 arrived at anywhere from 20%-40%
39   Robert Sproul   2021 Jan 17, 4:17pm  

Headline on month 13 from the goof-balls at Vox:
"Still going to the grocery store? With new virus variants spreading, it’s probably time to stop"
https://www.vox.com/22220301/covid-spread-new-strain-variants-safe-grocery-store-n95-masks-vaccine
If you want to eat supplicate and tithe to Lord Bezos.
40   FarmersWon   2021 Jan 17, 4:31pm  

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/03/why-india-farmers-are-protesting-three-farm-reform-bills.html

Millions of Indian farmers are sitting close to each other and eating together for months now.
There is no corona spread and everyone in India feels that this was fake crisis to pass "farmer bills" while people are quarantined.

See the similarities in US to get rid of Orange man?

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