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US deaths predicted to be atleast 10% higher in 2020 than 2019

By BoomAndBustCycle follow BoomAndBustCycle   2020 Dec 30, 11:31am 383 views   17 comments   watch   nsfw   quote   share      


https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.kare11.com/amp/article/news/health/coronavirus/verify-comparing-total-deaths-from-2020-to-2019-and-2018/501-355b857c-e7e9-40e4-b31d-11500cbcb103


I think worldwide the uptick in deaths in 2020 is much less... but something to think about.... still got another 3 months of high death rate until March to really push the 12 months since March 2020 - March 2021 to closer to 15% higher death rate in the US.
1   FuckCCP89   ignore (5)   2020 Dec 30, 11:31am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

... and 10-20% lower in 2021-2022.
2   BoomAndBustCycle   ignore (2)   2020 Dec 30, 11:34am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

FuckCCP89 says
.. and 10-20% lower in 2021-2022.


Hopefully... I think there’s still a lot of deaths in the next 6 months that makes 2021 higher than 2019.
3   WookieMan   ignore (5)   2020 Dec 30, 11:54am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

BoomAndBustCycle says
FuckCCP89 says
.. and 10-20% lower in 2021-2022.


Hopefully... I think there’s still a lot of deaths in the next 6 months that makes 2021 higher than 2019.

You understand demographics right? Heard of baby boomers? The older male, unhealthy and minority boomers are dying off and quickly. That explains away the increase as just poor health and age. Year over year for a while after this it will be the "new normal" death rate. Boomers are dying and it's not some crisis the media would have you believe. You'll compare 2020 to 2021 and see the new normal. You won't see 2019 numbers or earlier for a while again until boomer leave this planet.

And why 6 months. What changes in 6 months with regards to 2021 deaths? The flu season is basically over? Hmmmm.
4   theoakman   ignore (0)   2020 Dec 30, 12:05pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

My prediction is, in 2022, we have less deaths than in 2018 and 2019 because all the low hanging fruit was picked off by Wuhan Virus.
5   BoomAndBustCycle   ignore (2)   2020 Dec 30, 12:08pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

WookieMan says
And why 6 months. What changes in 6 months with regards to 2021 deaths? The flu season is basically over? Hmmmm.


Roughly 3000 deaths a day... even 1500 a day thru March would increase the March 2020-March 2021 death rate to 15% higher than March 2019- March 2020 easily.

https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-daily-deaths

The numbers aren’t final... I’m just a statistics guy. Just trying to wrap my head around it all. I don’t believe the jump would not be so dramatic in 2020 vs 2019 if it was just aging boomers. Covid definitely shortened some lifespans by 5-10 years.
6   FuckCCP89   ignore (5)   2020 Dec 30, 12:14pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

BoomAndBustCycle says
Covid definitely shortened some lifespans by 5-10 years.


More like 0.5-1.5 .
7   HeadSet   ignore (3)   2020 Dec 30, 12:32pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

FuckCCP89 says
BoomAndBustCycle says
Covid definitely shortened some lifespans by 5-10 years.


More like 0.5-1.5 .


DO NOT fall for this Arab Bazaar bargaining, where the buyer thinks he got something because he got the dealer to come down from an absurd high price. "Shortened lifespans by 5-10 years" is absurd, and the actual change is statistically insignificant. But now it makes "shortened by .5 to 1.5 years" a good compromise, which may have been the "desired price" all along, just trying to convince you that Covid shortens lives, period.
8   WookieMan   ignore (5)   2020 Dec 30, 12:52pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

HeadSet says
FuckCCP89 says
BoomAndBustCycle says
Covid definitely shortened some lifespans by 5-10 years.


More like 0.5-1.5 .


DO NOT fall for this Arab Bazaar bargaining, where the buyer thinks he got something because he got the dealer to come down from an absurd high price. "Shortened lifespans by 5-10 years" is absurd, and the actual change is statistically insignificant. But now it makes "shortened by .5 to 1.5 years" a good compromise, which may have been the "desired price" all along, just trying to convince you that Covid shortens lives, period.

That's why I think it's demographics. While we have a large upcoming younger population, the generation hitting the death zone is still rather massive in historical terms. Which is why we cannot go off the total number of deaths as being X percentage more than a previous year. It has to be a correlation/percentage of death to overall population to see if we're actually higher or if this is normal. Or compare deaths by age group year over year.

BoomAndBustCycle says
I don’t believe the jump would not be so dramatic in 2020 vs 2019 if it was just aging boomers. Covid definitely shortened some lifespans by 5-10 years.

Millennials just beat out Boomers recently population wise, why is that? Front end boomers are 75. They're going to start dropping like flies if you're talking total deaths. You cannot blame Covid. Could have been lead paint or asbestos exposure when they were kids and developed cancer at 65. They then got any virus, again any virus and died from it. We're hyper focused on a new virus because we have a huge contingent of people close to death and are a flu, cold, broken hip away from death. Yes we focus on this one source for some reason. Smoking, harmful chemicals, pharmaceutical drugs, etc. None of that played a role?

Very sick of the Covid narrative and people eating it up. The 2nd largest percentage/generation of the US population is nearing death regardless of anything happening. Numbers are going up. Vaccine or no vaccine. You can't stop people from dying. Only politicize it.
9   Shaman   ignore (2)   2020 Dec 30, 1:18pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

WookieMan says
The 2nd largest percentage/generation of the US population is nearing death regardless of anything happening.


It’s really the only thing that can save us from looming pension disasters.
10   Bd6r   ignore (1)   2020 Dec 30, 7:23pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

As of late Dec 2020, official statistic published by NHS England which showed that there had, since the start of the pandemic, been 377 Covid-related hospital deaths involving patients who were under 60 and had no pre-existing condition.

https://twitter.com/PaulEmbery/status/1342780150358962176?s=20
11   FuckCCP89   ignore (5)   2020 Dec 30, 9:22pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

HeadSet says
But now it makes "shortened by .5 to 1.5 years" a good compromise, which may have been the "desired price" all along, just trying to convince you that Covid shortens lives, period.


In nursing home populations? Most def it does. But they don't have another 5-10 years of life to be shortened by pneumonia.
12   richwicks   ignore (2)   2020 Dec 30, 9:37pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

At this point, I would caution people placing trust in published statistics. You need to look purely at the population per nation to make a judgement.

http://srv1.worldometers.info/world-population/us-population/

You need to look on the edge to gain information. Our propaganda lies. You have to look at raw data, if "covid" is mentioned, you need to immediately discard it as it has a political agenda.

Real data is available, but if you are reading from a "news" source, be suspicious. If they don't list fundamental research, ignore them, you are reading propaganda.
13   WookieMan   ignore (5)   2020 Dec 31, 3:55am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Rb6d says
As of late Dec 2020, official statistic published by NHS England which showed that there had, since the start of the pandemic, been 377 Covid-related hospital deaths involving patients who were under 60 and had no pre-existing condition.

https://twitter.com/PaulEmbery/status/1342780150358962176?s=20

Remember though they likely died with Covid. Everyone's pain and tolerance for discomfort is different. Unless there were autopsies (likely weren't any) we have no clue if there was actually a pre-existing condition. Especially if they never went to the doctor. Had a younger mom 35-40 in my town get a routine mammogram, something looked wrong and was dead less than 6 months later. My wife talked to her after she was diagnosed and she said she felt fine and was doing her treatment. Some of these deaths could be in similar situations, but are closer to the end than they realize.

Point being we really have no clue. My wife's cousin dropped dead from an aneurism at 38. Completely healthy. You wouldn't likely be able to predict that coming even with an autopsy. There's no way of knowing if Covid triggers it or not, just that you have it. So just say Covid did it at this point.
14   FuckTheMainstreamMedia   ignore (7)   2020 Dec 31, 4:32am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

BoomAndBustCycle says

The numbers aren’t final... I’m just a statistics guy. Just trying to wrap my head around it all. I don’t believe the jump would not be so dramatic in 2020 vs 2019 if it was just aging boomers. Covid definitely shortened some lifespans by 5-10 years.


This is what I find curious about you. You claim as such but then just go parrot the msm line of the day.

It’s a lazy line to cite raw numbers and an interpretation of those numbers when you very well know there’s much more to it.

It’s actually one of the most disingenuous presentations the NYT, WaPo, CNN et al provide to the public.
15   BoomAndBustCycle   ignore (2)   2020 Dec 31, 11:23am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

FuckTheMainstreamMedia says
It’s actually one of the most disingenuous presentations the NYT, WaPo, CNN et al provide to the public.


I have Trump supporter family who are nurses who are still insisting people wear masks, social distance and working insane hours head to toe in PPE. In one post they are talking about how Biden stole the election... in another they are yelling at someone for downplaying Covid, citing their in person horrible experiences with patients in ventilators dying alone daily. It’s an odd cognitive dissonance. I don’t question them because they are extended family... but it’s odd nonetheless.
16   stfu   ignore (0)   2020 Dec 31, 4:00pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I'll just leave this here. Earlier study done by a loose cannon at John Hopkins mining the same CDC data. JH pulled the publication but although they attacked the paper because it could be used to 'support dangerous inaccuracies that minimize the impact of the pandemic' they didn't actually refute it.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Tnb1a8TXHj_jJCM2BDfGSriUgdn-2gec/view

If you want to be terrified of COVID it is your right. Do you own research. I recommend downloading the CDC weekly death spreadsheet and charting it yourself. It shows a spike in the spring of every year that the data covers.

A colleague of mine is trying to make the case that Vitamin D is the biggest factor in discrepancies between states deaths and he's a data nerd so it's possible. What's absolutely clear is that Masks and Lockdowns are not having any impact.
17   stfu   ignore (0)   2020 Dec 31, 4:05pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

A cleaner PDF of the paper without the annoying 'we done retracted this shit' watermarking :

https://behindtheblack.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/A-closer-look-at-U.S.-deaths-due-to-COVID-19.pdf

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