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The IFR (Infection Fatality Rate) of Wuhan virus is not much different than seasonal flu


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2020 Dec 9, 6:16pm   555 views  17 comments

by Patrick   ➕follow (55)   💰tip   ignore  

https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/10/26/how-dangerous-is-covid19/

‘An estimated 750 million, or 10 per cent of the world’s population, have been infected by COVID-19, World Health Organisation (WHO) official Dr Mike Ryan has said.’

At the time of his statement, there had been just over one million deaths recorded worldwide (1,034,068 to be fully accurate). Using these two figures, the IFR can be easily calculated. It is 1,034,068/750,000,000 = 0.138%. How accurate is this figure? Well, who knows for certain? It is probably as accurate as most other current estimates.

Yet even using these WHO-endorsed figures is apparently verboten in the eyes of the Facebook ‘fact checkers’. Another site that reported these numbers also found its story flagged as “misinformation” by Facebook, and has subsequently accused the social media giant of “selling falsehoods and re-writing history”.

One wide-ranging piece of work, a review of 61 studies of COVID deaths covering 51 countries, was done recently by John Ioannidis, a professor of epidemiology at Stanford University, and a man described as “a lion of medical science”. The article, peer-reviewed and published by the WHO, concluded that the infection fatality rate currently stands at 0.23%, and suggested it would fall further, warning: “The inferred infection fatality rates tended to be much lower than estimates made earlier in the pandemic.”

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1   Karloff   2020 Dec 9, 7:12pm  

Any stat that causes one to no longer think that this virus is completely deadly to everyone who catches it, so terrible that you must assume everyone has it and they must therefore wear a rag and stay 6ft from you, must be flagged as "misinformation".

We can't have the fear factor diminish now, can we? How can we control people and convince them to give up rights if they aren't scared of something?
2   Patrick   2020 Dec 9, 9:52pm  

It is hard to find good scientific IFR numbers for this virus. Makes me wonder about censorship, or self-censorship to keep one's job.

BTW, I now make the "embed" links from rumble.com automatically embed the video.

So this: ht tps://rum ble.com/embed/v93hgf/?pub=4 (I added spaces so you can see the url without the embed automatically happening here)

Turns into this:

3   rocketjoe79   2020 Dec 9, 10:34pm  

Try to find flu deaths this year: there apparently aren't any! This leads to two possible explanations:

1. The Powers That Be have coded all virus-related deaths from any cause as Covid-19 deaths.
2. The flu decided not to show up this year. This must mean that I don't need a flu shot this year?

But masks and lockdowns work. I had a friend tell me "if you keep up this line of discussion we can't be friends anymore."

It hurts not to be able to challenge the bullshit. People I thought were rational are simply regurgitating the vomit they are being fed daily. Will they ever wake up and smell the coffee?
4   Patrick   2020 Dec 9, 10:39pm  

rocketjoe79 says
I had a friend tell me "if you keep up this line of discussion we can't be friends anymore."


This has happened to me three times now.
5   rocketjoe79   2020 Dec 11, 10:23am  

Patrick says
rocketjoe79 says
I had a friend tell me "if you keep up this line of discussion we can't be friends anymore."


This has happened to me three times now.


I'm coming to believe the folks who believe all the BS literally can't engage in these topics because, subconsciously, they know the bullshit is really bullshit. For folks to challenge their belief structures now, after 4 years of MSM pounding Trump, and all the other belief structures we have been fed, would be to challenge their sanity. Or at least their ability to discern the truth. So Folks don't want to engage, they only want to associate with those that hold their belief system. Forget discussion! You're a nutjob if you hold any opinion other than mine. BLAH BLAH BLAH NOT HEARING THIS!!!! Please let me go back to my safe bubble!

It's disturbing and sad.
6   MisdemeanorRebel   2020 Dec 11, 10:34am  

How come we all haven't died of AIDS yet?
7   PeopleUnited   2020 Dec 11, 10:42am  

Patrick says
rocketjoe79 says
I had a friend tell me "if you keep up this line of discussion we can't be friends anymore."


This has happened to me three times now.


One possible explanation is simple peer pressure: people are so pressed by corporate media and HR social justice types that they must tow the line or face exile.

Not many Patrick Henry’s these days.
8   richwicks   2020 Dec 11, 10:50am  

rocketjoe79 says
I'm coming to believe the folks who believe all the BS literally can't engage in these topics because, subconsciously, they know the bullshit is really bullshit. For folks to challenge their belief structures now, after 4 years of MSM pounding Trump, and all the other belief structures we have been fed, would be to challenge their sanity.


It's HARD to make that jump of "everything I hear in ALL news is bullshit and propaganda". I did that in 1995, and it leaves you ungrounded. I think I did it much earlier than most people. It's not that just Fox news is BS, but so is CNN, PBS, NPR, ABC, NY Times, etc etc etc you are "well, where the hell do I get any information?"

You are literally asking them to abandon all their information sources and a lot of entertainers as well. Late night TV pounded the Russia Collusion hoax for years too.
9   Karloff   2020 Dec 11, 11:04am  

The media is used to first plant the lie into people's heads. Frequent repetition gets this through.

They then plant the notion into people that anyone who says otherwise is dangerous, misinformed, lying, or a conspiracy theorist. Poison the mind to armor the message and prevent any attempt to break it down.

The legacy media outlets must be torn down before the public can come to their senses.
10   mell   2020 Dec 11, 11:42am  

Here are some real stats:

SF has 17628 total cases which is roughly 2% of its population (probably less since we don't know how many are re-tests), total deaths are 165 which is roughly 0.1% of cases and 0.01% of total population. San Mateo has very similar stats to SF. Santa Clara has 44039 total cases, roughly 2% as well with 519 deaths, just a bit over 0.1% and 0.02% of total population. This is all in line with CDC/WHO numbers that have the IFR anywhere between 0.1% and 0.4%, depending on whether fully include or exclude the nursing home outbreaks. If you assume that many more came in contact than have been tested, it very likely well below 0.1%. I assume the stats will be the same EVERYWHERE in the world with comparabale medical care, just with delayed cases and deaths. So if you wanted to wait for a vaccine you can lock down everyone as much as possible until it's available, of course the economic toll and its fallout are far worse than letting it play out naturally. Best strategy would have been to recommend self-isolation to the elderly and vulnerable (and keep nursing/retirement homes "closed" off and have everyone else go business as usual with a recommendation for increased hygiene, washing hands frequently and avoid touching the face and wear masks indoors if required by the office or business or private person hosting. It's clear now that the lockdowns so far have accomplished nothing but economic turmoil and psychological and physical hardship. The amount of business closed in the SF bay area is staggering and likely surpassing 40% closures by now. When this is over well over half of all businesses had to shutdown and/or went BK.
11   Patrick   2020 Dec 11, 12:16pm  

My wife objects asking "But how long are ill people in the hospital for and how does that compare to the normal flu?"
12   mell   2020 Dec 11, 12:26pm  

Patrick says
My wife objects asking "But how long are ill people in the hospital for and how does that compare to the normal flu?"


This is another lie peddled by the lamestream media and political pundits causing people to think Covid-19 is significantly different. Every flu-like viral disease with a severe enough immune reaction will leave a certain percentage of people with long term issues - the terms often used are CFS or post viral fatigue. Can happen with mono, q-fever, flu, and Covid. Now they call it "organ damage" which has a much more dire ring to it. I was ill for almost 5 years after an infection and it was brutal and all they could come up with is post viral fatigue. I know people who battled for 6 months, a year, sometimes 2 years or more following EBV (mono), CMV, q-fever infections. There is a huge need to improve our medical care around long term issues following a moderate/severe infection and a lot of research to do, but Covid-19 is no different than these other viruses that can wreak havoc on your body balance for a prolonged time. That being said, the amount of people experiencing that compared to the sheer amount of people who came in contact or got infected with sars cov 2 is tiny, like with most other viruses. The lamestream media us just feasting on others demise by highlighting every case and spreading FUD while they have never focused on CFS/PVF before.
13   Patrick   2020 Dec 11, 12:53pm  

Good point, I have heard this about the flu as well.

But do we have stats on how long people are in the hospital with Wuhan Flu?
14   mell   2020 Dec 11, 1:19pm  

Patrick says
Good point, I have heard this about the flu as well.

But do we have stats on how long people are in the hospital with Wuhan Flu?


I don't - anecdotal info from family and friends is some are in and out within a few days and some are hospitalized for a longer time or have recurring hospitalizations. I think the vast majority of cases are pneumonias which can linger can be difficult to treat. The hospitals in the bay are though are not even close to filling up, neither are the ICUs. Can't speak for other areas but whenever somebody did some serious research following FUD reports it turned out the hospitals had ample capacity.
15   WookieMan   2020 Dec 11, 1:22pm  

Patrick says
But do we have stats on how long people are in the hospital with Wuhan Flu?

There's more to it than that though. Most these people have high BP, lung issues, heart issues, diabetes, etc. We're focusing too much on a virus where the test isn't even close to accurate. It's not even close to a slam dunk these people even have Covid. The data and metrics aren't accurate if you're basing it off one positive test. Deaths are really the only metric that matters as that is easily identifiable and accurate. So time in hospital could be from pancreatic cancer and not Covid.

Length of stay in a hospital OR hospitalization in general isn't an accurate metric with poor tests and the vast majority of people having pretty severe health issues anyway. Remember if you go into the ER and test positive and have unknown lung cancer and never got scanned for it, it's Covid you died of. I've had family friends get diagnosed with liver cancer and die the next week. Bodies are different and if you only test for Covid and no other condition, who really knows?

The overall death rate for all issues is really the only way to tell if/how bad Covid is. There's a huge chunk of our population aging into the death zone. More people are going to die than normal. More were born in the late 40-60's than normal (boomers) and now more are going to die because of life expectancy.

Someone was honestly brilliant and figured out a way to politicize a naturally occurring event.
16   Patrick   2020 Dec 13, 4:59pm  

WookieMan says
Someone was honestly brilliant and figured out a way to politicize a naturally occurring event.





I agree. It was brilliant to play on the FEAR people have of disease to swing the election and destroy small businesses so that the hedge funds that own the majority of the big businesses could profit.

I’ve been preoccupied with BlackRock, this big asset management company. It controls seven trillion dollars. Between them, State Street, Vanguard and some of the other smaller ones, they vote the shares that control something like 95 percent of the S&P 500. But when I tried to find stories about BlackRock that really are revealing, the place I found them was on Bloomberg. Well, Bloomberg is privately owned, whereas The New York Times is owned by BlackRock, Vanguard, State Street, and the other institutional investors. I guess people know where their bread is buttered.


https://patrick.net/post/1337098/2020-12-13-hedge-funds-own-the-us-media-promote-war-and-outsourcing-us-jobs-for-profit

Maybe the real enemy is BlackRock.
17   mell   2020 Dec 13, 5:17pm  

Patrick says
WookieMan says
Someone was honestly brilliant and figured out a way to politicize a naturally occurring event.





I agree. It was brilliant to play on the FEAR people have of disease to swing the election and destroy small businesses so that the hedge funds that own the majority of the big businesses could profit.

I’ve been preoccupied with BlackRock, this big asset management company. It controls seven trillion dollars. Between them, State Street, Vanguard and some of the other smaller ones, they vote the shares that control something like 95 percent of the S&P 500. But when I tried to find stories about BlackRock that really are revealing, the place I found them was on Bloomberg. Well, Bloomberg is privately owned, whereas The New York Times is owned by BlackRock, Vanguard, State Street, and the other institutional investors. I guess p...


I think big investment firms just capitalize on everything, and as they grow in size they grow in power and influence. It's always about fear, 2008 it was the fear of assets/liquidity freezing up, even promoted by some on patnet back then. They got the bailout money funneled to the big guys who bought up all the cheap deserted real estate riding it into the next boom. This time people would not have been so willing to agree to financial enslavement into the future just because of a financial crisis, so they upped the fear ante with Covid. The real culprit are politicians, leftoid and rinos who will bail out all the failed states public salaries and give the rest to megacorps. People need to wake up and vote those assholes out of office.

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