please check out the anti-mandate news »

« prev   random   next »

0
0

stocks nearer 1999/2000 valuation levels

By ad follow ad   2020 Nov 24, 9:46am 508 views   19 comments   watch   nsfw   quote   share      


.

Stocks are in extreme bubble territory close to 1999/2000 levels: https://www.longtermtrends.net/sp500-price-earnings-shiller-pe-ratio/

Mad Money's Cramer says this: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/24/cramer-calls-this-stock-market-the-most-speculative-hes-ever-seen.html

.
1   clambo   ignore (5)   2020 Nov 24, 9:57am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Bubble bubble toil and trouble.

Stocks are going up.

People who have money to invest are always deciding: do I buy bonds or stocks?

These days interest rates are low; they will buy stocks.

1/2 of Americans don’t invest, but they will go buy more shit at the Apple Store; resistance is futile.

Foreign guys who have extra money (i.e. rich) buy stocks here.

I’m going to have another million bucks before I am through the capital appreciation phase of my investment.
2   Ceffer   ignore (6)   2020 Nov 24, 10:00am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

More Hummers for the fleet!
3   HunterTits   ignore (4)   2020 Nov 24, 10:27am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Because they smell GRIDLOCK with Biden and the GOP Senate.
4   WookieMan   ignore (5)   2020 Nov 24, 10:36am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

TrumpingTits says
Because they smell GRIDLOCK with Biden and the GOP Senate.

Yup. I don't even think he can sway the House on a lot of things. Take Trump out of the picture and their unifying hatred of him and it's likely to be a shit show in the House. It's just going to be EO's and reversals of Trump EO's the next 2-4 years. Trump's tax reform will expire in waves and we'll likely end up with a lower stock market. If Biden/Harris can hold back and not start another conflict, I think we'll be okay.
5   mell   ignore (6)   2020 Nov 24, 10:42am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

It's not a bubble if rates stay near zero and consumption is pumped with one bailout after the other, it's called inflation. You have to be invested in assets as long as the Fed policy doesn't change. They have been doing this now for 20 years, not expecting it to change overnight amd without an event that would force their hand. Also keeping/reiterating my bullish stance on the biotech sector.
6   richwicks   ignore (2)   2020 Nov 24, 10:53am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

WookieMan says
If Biden/Harris can hold back and not start another conflict, I think we'll be okay.


A conflict - you mean a war? That's what Biden and Harris were HIRED to do. 1/2 of the animosity directed at Trump is that he properly pointed out all our foreign conflicts are stupid. They're stupid from the point of view of helping this nation, but it makes some very powerful people more money and gives them more power.

Trump went up against the military industrial complex - that is who primarily has been trying to remove him. With Biden and Harris installed, the US is certain to expand their conflicts. Hope I'm wrong but I doubt it. I thought Obama and Bush Jr. were puppets, and if they were, there's no way Biden couldn't be.
7   clambo   ignore (5)   2020 Nov 24, 10:53am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Wow, even the POS Wells Fargo is going up today.
Thank goodness, I inherited some WFC in 2017 ($54), and stupidly believed the Buffet hype and didn’t sell all of it.
I advised my brother to sell all his WFC and buy ROKU, and he made a bundle on his very first stock buy at age 69.
Now he’s hooked and keeps asking me for “hot tips”, he has extra cash every month.
8   ad   ignore (0)   2020 Nov 24, 11:01am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

WookieMan says
I don't even think he can sway the House on a lot of things.


Even if the Dems win both Senate seats in the Georgia runoff they have a 50-50 vote with VP Harris as the tie breaker. Don't tell me that Democrat senators from Ohio, West Virginia, and Montana will go along left wing legislation.

Let alone, they will likely have only about an 8 seat lead in the House of Representatives.

Maybe they'll be some compromise on tax increases if it helps to pay down the debt. The rest can go to some green new deal programs like helping to insulate homes.

.
9   ad   ignore (0)   2020 Nov 24, 11:10am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

clambo says
Wells Fargo is going up today.


Yeah, I wrote this covered call this Monday afternoon. Looks like it will get assigned on Friday at 1 pm (early close due to Thanksgiving weekend).
11   ad   ignore (0)   2020 Nov 24, 11:15am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

mell says
It's not a bubble if rates stay near zero and consumption is pumped with one bailout after the other, it's called inflation.


Very true, its called "asset inflation" due to Federal Reserve policies (i.e., ZIRP and quantitative easing, etc.). Yet, annual CPI has been about 2.5% since January 2000.

Working class stiffs getting squeezed to provide more productivity (as well as technology/automation disruptive effects), while getting 2% wage increases a year while housing goes up about 3.5% a year :-/

A lot of new housing construction priced on low interest rates for mortgages. Banks normally lend based on principal+interest+taxes+insurance+hoa fee as being no more than about 38% of take home pay.

.
12   WookieMan   ignore (5)   2020 Nov 24, 11:42am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

ad says
Montana will go along left wing legislation

Don't count on Montana. I've been visiting my IL buddy who moved out there 3-4 years ago once or twice a year. Leftist and liberals are moving out there with a passion. Tons from CA. Bozeman and Missoula specifically are gonna start running that state. That's a bad thing. Factor in limousine liberal Big Sky and the state can easily be blue.

Love the place, but it's going south politically in a bad way. If you watch the series Yellowstone, it's pretty accurate of all the scum coming in, minus the violence. But if you like fly fishing, skiing and camping, there's really no other place I've been that can beat it for the price (for now).
13   ad   ignore (0)   2020 Nov 24, 11:48am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

WookieMan says
Leftist and liberals are moving out there with a passion.


California's chief export is Democrat voters to states like Nevada, Arizona, etc. As a sanctuary state, they just replace them with illegal immigrants.

.
14   HunterTits   ignore (4)   2020 Nov 24, 3:02pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

WookieMan says
Trump's tax reform will expire in waves and we'll likely end up with a lower stock market. If Biden/Harris can hold back and not start another conflict, I think we'll be okay.


Nah. They will go nuclear on the Senate. The House and WH. Keep pushing budget bills that aren't really budget bills in order to try to get around the filibuster. The first thing they will want is to reinstate the full SALT deduction. They just have to peel off 2-3 RINOs in the Senate in a 'budget bill' regarding that. Or cut some sell out deal with the GOP Senate as a whole that they could not refuse.

With Trump gone, those Never-Trumpers in the Senate will show their true Romney-esque colors. Trust me.

Biden will reverse the EOs on imposing critical race theory training and expand the types of firms required to inflict it upon their employees. Ditto with the moratorium on H1-B VISA issuances. Then he'll expand on the H1-Bs...with full FUCK YOU AMERICAN TECH WORKERS bi-partisan backing in the Senate.

It's going to be worse than it was under Obama.

But the real damage is that they will be going full throttle on Total Voter Fraud. As in, what we just witnessed will be amateur hour compared to what they will be doing in 2022 and beyond. GOP will back it tacitly to keep Trump from pulling a Grover Cleveland. Remember, they gave Obama full backing on using the IRS to smash the Tea Party groups.
15   mich   ignore (0)   2020 Nov 24, 3:08pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Many TA and macroeconomist saying this is the top of the bubble phase and they get bigger. Prob by SPring 2021 it will pop.
16   ad   ignore (0)   2020 Nov 24, 8:28pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

mich says
Many TA and macroeconomist saying this is the top of the bubble phase and they get bigger. Prob by SPring 2021 it will pop.


Spring 2021 the stock market will pop ? Where it is now as far as valuation, it looks like it will pop in 2020.
17   Cash   ignore (2)   2020 Nov 25, 6:47am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

All the money pump equals inflation and a weak dollar plain and simple, and likely staying the coarse in this environment. FOMC Meeting Minutes at 2est. they live to make things cost more and they are doing a great job and will continue doing the same... By definition it's risk-on until the USD hits bottom (DX 88+/-?) until then buy buy buy top stocks and top crypto (risk manage) and by all means think 2x before you buy xau or xag, they are as weak as the USD.... https://www.forexfactory.com/calendar?day=nov25.2020#detail=116522
18   zzyzzx   ignore (1)   2020 Nov 25, 7:05am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

ad says
while getting 2% wage increases a year


Clearly you have never worked at AT&T! A 2% raise would be quite generous by their standards.
19   ad   ignore (0)   2020 Nov 25, 7:06am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Cash says
All the money pump equals inflation and a weak dollar plain and simple, and likely staying the coarse in this environment. FOMC Meeting Minutes at 2est. they live to make things cost more and they are doing a great job and will continue doing the same...


Yes as far as "asset inflation" like stocks and housing. That is what the Fed wants.

And they want 2% annual inflation. A deflation environment will just lead to everyone hording cash and not wanting to invest in real estate and stocks.

I suspect many categories like food would be cheaper due to productivity gains, if not for the FOMC inflationary policies.

.

about   best comments   contact   one year ago   suggestions