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Flatten the Curve


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2020 Jul 15, 3:31am   25,701 views  720 comments

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As the numbers of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths surge to record levels in multiple epicenters, local and state officials are struggling with whether and how much to reverse the rollback of restrictions on individuals and businesses. For example, following a gradual reopening over about a month, on Monday, California Gov. Gavin Newsom announced the reintroduction of statewide restrictions that would again shut down bars, all indoor dining, family entertainment, zoos and museums following a surge in coronavirus cases. The governors of Florida, Texas, and Arizona, all now epicenters of infection, have also slowed or reversed reopening, but their actions have been tepid. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is even insisting on opening schools in the face of record-high numbers of infections.

These officials would do well to recall the observation of The Great One. No, not Dr. Tony Fauci of the National Institutes of Health—the other one, hockey legend Wayne Gretzky, who once explained, “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.”

Anticipating what’s coming is important in confronting an infectious disease, especially one whose dynamics are what many infectious disease experts consider their worst nightmare. COVID-19 is highly infectious, has a lengthy incubation period (during which asymptomatic infected persons can unwittingly shed virus and infect other people), and causes serious, sometimes fatal illness.

Those unusual characteristics of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which causes COVID-19, and the idiosyncrasies and spectrum of presentations of the illness—from pulmonary symptoms (including pneumonia and pulmonary fibrosis) to a range of non-respiratory manifestations, (including loss of sense of smell or taste, confusion and cognitive impairments, fainting, sudden muscle weakness or paralysis, seizures, ischemic strokes, kidney damage, and, rarely, a severe pediatric inflammatory syndrome) mean that we are on a steep learning curve.

The problem is: if we react too slowly to changing circumstances, we can fall off a metaphorical cliff.

There’s an old brain teaser that perfectly illustrates this point. Consider a pond of a certain size, on which there is a single lily pad. This particular species of lily pad reproduces and duplicates itself once a day, so that on day 2, you have two lily pads. On day 3, you have four; on day 4, you have eight; and so on. Here’s the teaser: if it takes the lily pads 48 days to cover the pond completely, how long will it take for the pond to be covered halfway?

The answer? 47 days. In just 24 hours, between day 47 and day 48, the lily pads would double in size and overtake the pond. Moreover, on day 40, the pond would still appear to be relatively clear; just eight days from the pond being completely covered, you’d hardly know the lily pads were there.

If the same thing happens with a virulent and highly contagious infectious agent, like the SARS-CoV-2 virus, you don’t know you’re in trouble until you wake up one morning to find that you’re overwhelmed. Like the lily pad example, the daily number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the U.S. was 18,577 on June 15th—just three weeks later, on July 10th, the number had shot up to 66,281.

Dr. Anthony Fauci
Dr. Anthony Fauci

FLATTENING THE CURVE TO BEAT THE IMPENDING CLIFF

From early in the pandemic, the public health mantra worldwide has been: “flatten the curve.” That important concept, which was in vogue several months ago, seems largely forgotten today.

In the above graphic from the University of Michigan, the blue curve is the viral equivalent of the lily pads, suddenly covering the pond. It represents a large number of people (shown on the vertical axis) becoming infected over a short time (horizontal axis), and, in turn, overwhelming our health care system with people who need hospitalization, or even an Intensive Care Unit (ICU).

People won’t shop for non-essentials, fly, go to restaurants, theaters, and athletic events, or send their kids to school, when numbers of new cases are soaring.

If, however, political officials, individuals, and communities take steps to slow the virus’s spread, the cases of COVID-19 will stretch out across a more extended period, as depicted by the flatter, yellow curve. As long as the number of cases at any given time doesn’t bleed past the dotted line marking the capacity of our nation’s health care system, we’ll be able to accommodate everyone who is very sick.

Curve-flattening has fallen out of focus in recent months, in part because some political leaders reopened too aggressively and prematurely, basing policy on their constituents’ “pandemic fatigue,” instead of on the advice of epidemiologists and infectious disease experts.

But it’s still critical to avoid the pattern of the blue curve, not only to spare hospitals and ICUs—which are especially under stress in parts of Arizona, Florida, and Texas—but also so that we can continue the gradual reopening of the nation’s businesses and schools. Reopening relies on curve-flattening. As the NIH’s Dr. Tony Fauci says frequently, public health and economic considerations are not in opposition but are opposite sides of the same coin; we can’t fully restart and resume commerce until the pandemic is under some measure of control. People won’t shop for non-essentials, fly, go to restaurants, theaters, and athletic events, or send their kids to school, when numbers of new cases are soaring.

That means we need to start anticipating and stop playing catch-up—as the governors of Florida, Arizona, and Texas have been doing, relying on a combination of magical thinking, Happy Talk, and too-little-too-late remedies, instead of aggressive, evidence-based public health policies.

Arizona Governor Doug Ducey, for instance, has offered no strategy for blunting the spike in COVID-19 cases other than to keep repeating that there were enough hospital beds to treat those who fall ill. And yet, ICU beds and ventilators in use by suspected and confirmed COVID-19 patients in Arizona both hit new records on July 12th and were under stress, according to data reported by hospitals to the state.

On July 10th, a physicians group gathered outside Florida Governor DeSantis’s mansion in Tallahassee to urge him to issue an order mandating the use of face masks statewide, which arguably should have been done months ago. Masks have long been considered essential to slowing the spread of COVID-19, but, inexplicably, the Governor resisted. And only on July 10th did Texas Governor Greg Abbott finally mandate the wearing of face masks, and demand the prohibition of large gatherings and the closing of bars across the state.

Elected officials must heed Wayne Gretzky’s admonition and stay ahead of the coronavirus, in order to lower its rate of transmission. That’s the only way to slow the rise of new cases.

Evidence-based policies, such as requiring masks in public, prohibiting large indoor gatherings, and indoor dining at restaurants, are important. But as we’ve seen with California, even aggressive imposition of those kinds of strictures has not been sufficient—in large part because many people, especially younger ones, have failed to comply. As California allowed businesses and public places to reopen, bars, boardwalks, and beaches became crowded with large numbers of maskless patrons. It’s no wonder, then, that as of July 13th, hospitals in the state reported a 27.8% increase in hospitalized patients over the previous 14 days and a 19.9% increase in ICU patients over that same period. In fact, as a result of noncompliance, many local governments in the Golden State have had to coordinate with law enforcement agencies to issue citations and explore civil alternatives through code enforcement, environmental health, or other local government personnel.

Of course, the need for heightened consequences for noncompliance is unfortunate, but it will help to re-flatten the curve. That will spread out the demands on hospitals, which must have sufficient space, supplies, and healthy staff to care for all those who need hospital-level care—whether for COVID-19, a stroke, trauma, emergency surgery, or childbirth. It’s strong, but necessary, medicine—which possibly could have been avoided with more intense efforts to get the public to comply with wearing masks, social distancing, and frequent hand-washing.

If politicians properly understood their role in flattening the curve, they wouldn’t have to resort to policing and ticketing. They would instead launch a tsunami of public service announcements from all manner of dignitaries and celebrities, including prominent politicians, actors, rock stars, and athletes—maybe even The Great One himself—demonstrating how we can anticipate instead of falling behind the curve.

That non-coercive strategy could be a winner.


In this article:Coronavirus, Featured, large
Don't Miss:
For Coronavirus, the Name of the Game Is Minimizing the Probability of Infection.

Written By
Henry I. Miller, M.S., M.D.
Henry I. Miller, a physician and molecular biologist, is a Senior Fellow at the Pacific Research Institute. He was the founding director of the FDA’s Office of Biotechnology.


https://humanevents.com/2020/07/14/flattening-the-curve-is-still-the-right-answer/

« First        Comments 683 - 720 of 720        Search these comments

683   PeopleUnited   2021 Mar 14, 6:42pm  

WookieMan says
You have one life, enjoy it.


Amen, and don’t waste your life running in fear of death, it will catch you eventually. 100% guaranteed. Better yet, prepare to die and live your life in power and peace. A life well lived is worth 1000 lifetimes lived in fear.
684   mell   2021 Mar 14, 8:48pm  

People in the bay area are out and about and mingling, most in CA don't give two shits anymore, and esp. since the recall efforts some counties suddenly can't open fast enough. SF will enter the bs orange tier within a few days which is pretty relaxed.
685   Patrick   2021 Mar 14, 9:47pm  

I'm going to Texas Thursday for a few days.

I'm really looking forward to seeing how they handle it.
686   Ceffer   2021 Mar 14, 10:08pm  

PeopleUnited says
A life well lived is worth 1000 lifetimes lived in fear.



Tell that to the Karen-Kovid-Fear-KommieKunts, who endeavor and succeed in ruining it for the rest of us.
687   Patrick   2021 Mar 14, 11:01pm  

We shall have fun in spite of them!

They hate that.
688   WookieMan   2021 Mar 15, 12:34am  

mell says
SF will enter the bs orange tier within a few days which is pretty relaxed.

Fucking 9/11 all over again except localized now. "Terrorist" threat meter has now become virus meter that tracks a cold. We'll see what sticks this time.

I flew a decent amount as a kid prior to 9/11 and I recall it as basically just walking through a metal detector. I don't have the best memory. I know there was a bag scanner, but the overall vibe was extremely chill. I mean remember when you could get airside (through security) to great people landing instead of at baggage? I also believe on one of my very first flights as a kid you could still smoke. lol that was one good change even as a former smoker.

I'd be worried as a small business owner in the big cities though. At a moments notice you could probably be shut down now for something as mundane as people standing too close to each other.
689   RC2006   2021 Mar 15, 8:23am  

Dems shut down for covid and then dump covid infected illegals across country fuck them.
690   mell   2021 Mar 15, 9:02am  

WookieMan says
mell says
SF will enter the bs orange tier within a few days which is pretty relaxed.

Fucking 9/11 all over again except localized now. "Terrorist" threat meter has now become virus meter that tracks a cold. We'll see what sticks this time.

I flew a decent amount as a kid prior to 9/11 and I recall it as basically just walking through a metal detector. I don't have the best memory. I know there was a bag scanner, but the overall vibe was extremely chill. I mean remember when you could get airside (through security) to great people landing instead of at baggage? I also believe on one of my very first flights as a kid you could still smoke. lol that was one good change even as a former smoker.

I'd be worried as a small business owner in the big cities though. At a moments notice you could probably be shut down now for something as mundane as people standing too close to each other.


Absolutely it's worse for small business owners than private citizens whose work does not depend on the city tyrants. That's why SF and other metros will suffer for a long time while the rural areas will do better. We activated plan "SFexit" and it's exciting being outta there soon.
691   RC2006   2021 Mar 15, 9:05am  

mell says
We activated plan "SFexit" and it's exciting being outta there soon.


Where are you heading?
692   Onvacation   2021 Mar 15, 9:09am  

SF used to be the "Nice place to visit, but you wouldn't want to live there" kind of place. Even the charm of visiting San Francisco has faded.
693   mell   2021 Mar 15, 9:15am  

RC2006 says
mell says
We activated plan "SFexit" and it's exciting being outta there soon.


Where are you heading?


Wine Country.
694   Onvacation   2021 Mar 15, 9:19am  

mell says

Wine Country.

I grew up in Napa County. It's the kind of place you don't appreciate until you leave.
695   mell   2021 Mar 15, 9:30am  

Onvacation says
mell says

Wine Country.

I grew up in Napa County. It's the kind of place you don't appreciate until you leave.


Agreed. And I'm also thinking we have the worst of wildfires behind us, a lot of brush that the corrupt and lazy govt left unchecked (likely for political reasons to promote the church of globull warming) finally burned off and the lessening solar activity should bring slightly cooler and less windy summers.
696   Onvacation   2021 Mar 15, 9:47am  

mell says
a lot of brush that the corrupt and lazy govt left unchecked (likely for political reasons to promote the church of globull warming) finally burned off and the lessening solar activity should bring slightly cooler and less windy summers.

It grows back, fast.

Do not think that the fires are new. When I was a kid we would regularly have big fires. The back county fire roads were much better maintained and I did not remember the vast amounts of smoke, but fires were, are, a regular occurrence in wine country.

I do agree that the fire problem is a result of bad government. the California Conservation Corps www.ccc.ca.gov used to clear brush and build fire breaks before the Sierra Club forced the state to let the land "go back to nature".



697   Onvacation   2021 Mar 18, 6:13pm  

We might need to keep wearing masks into 2022 to defeat COVID-19

Despite a sharp decline in coronavirus cases and continued success with COVID-19 vaccines, it's looking likely we will still be wearing masks for some time to come.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's coronavirus czar, said it's possible masks could be needed until 2022.

"I want it to keep going down to a baseline that's so low there is virtually no threat," Fauci said on CNN's "State of the Union" program. "If you combine getting most of the people in the country vaccinated with getting the level of virus in the community very, very low, then I believe you're going to be able to say, you know, for the most part, we don't necessarily have to wear masks."

https://www.uniondemocrat.com/lifestyle/article_1930a45e-764b-11eb-aae5-2f0460438c73.html
698   Onvacation   2021 Mar 18, 6:16pm  

I am so sick of this bullshit.

We are into year two of flattening the curve with no metric for ending, and no end in sight.
699   mell   2021 Mar 18, 8:37pm  

Who the fuck is this asshole. Go fuck yourself fauxci! One of the benefits of never tuning into lamestream media is that you never have to see his hackfresse.
701   Onvacation   2021 Apr 24, 10:47am  

It’s been exactly one year since Trump suggested injecting bleach. We’ve never been the same.

One year ago today, President Donald Trump took to the White House briefing room and encouraged his top health officials to study the injection of bleach into the human body as a means of fighting Covid. It was a watershed moment, soon to become iconic in the annals of presidential briefings. It arguably changed the course of political history.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/23/trump-bleach-one-year-484399

Never mind that he never said that.
702   Onvacation   2021 Apr 24, 10:48am  

Week 60 of two weeks to flatten the curve.
703   RWSGFY   2021 Apr 24, 11:13am  

Has it been flattened yet?
704   Bd6r   2021 Apr 24, 11:21am  

FuckCCP89 says
Has it been flattened yet?

NO! AND IT WILL NEVER BE! Everything must be shut down!
705   Onvacation   2021 Jun 10, 8:21pm  

The curve is getting flatter. A total of 586,659 have died from or presumptively with the CCP virus.

Of these 314 were under the age of 18, and they were not healthy kids.

The number of prime working age adults from the age of 18 to 49 that succumbed to the invisible enemy was approximately 27,000. Almost all had at least one comorbidity and many had many. Obese type two millennial diabetics did not die of the Wuhan no matter what their death certificate says.

92,107 boomers and X-ers from age 50 to 64 caught the Kung Flu and died; also not the fittest or healthiest of the pack.

The other460,000 plus victims were older than 65 when the reaper came to get them. 175,000 were older than 85.


The weekly death toll is down to 500.

They should have just protected the vulnerable and carried on life as normal.

The old normal.

The curve is flat.
706   Onvacation   2021 Jun 10, 8:22pm  

Day 454
707   Onvacation   2021 Jun 11, 8:58am  

Day 455 of 2 weeks to flatten the curve.

The psychological and physical damage is probably too bad to ever have normal back again.
708   Onvacation   2021 Jun 24, 11:59am  

Day 468 of 2 weeks to flatten the curve.
709   Onvacation   2021 Jun 24, 12:20pm  

Covid-19 has run out of old and sick people to kill.
710   Onvacation   2021 Jun 24, 2:11pm  

Look at the chart above. In spite of lockdowns, masking, and the experimental biologic agent there was a spike of deaths in sick and old people. Until the "vaccine" deaths kick in amongst young and healthy people we are running out of sick and old victims.
711   Onvacation   2021 Jul 8, 4:36pm  


Down to 336 dead from the Wuhan last week.

Notice that the total deaths are taking a dive as well. As somebody else has said, many deaths were moved forward by poor science, politics, or sheer evil.

So far there does not seem to be any jump in deaths that might correlate with increased vaccination deaths.

Will continue to monitor CDC numbers.
712   Patrick   2021 Jul 11, 3:46pm  

Onvacation says
So far there does not seem to be any jump in deaths that might correlate with increased vaccination deaths.


The 50,000 or so dead from the direct effects of the "vaccine" (like blood clots) would be hard to notice in whole US population.

But if the ADE (antibody dependent enhancement) fears come true, then we will see a massive surge in deaths only among the "vaccinated" as soon as the next coronavirus rolls around, natural or not.

Perhaps they are desperate to "vaccinate" everybody so that it does not become too obvious when only the "vaccinated" start dying of common colds.
713   Onvacation   2021 Jul 11, 11:49pm  

Patrick says
The 50,000 or so dead from the direct effects of the "vaccine" (like blood clots) would be hard to notice in whole US population.

The weekly Wuhan death count peaked in early January at almost 26,000 when the vaccination rollout picked up speed. The total deaths for that week were almost 87,000. Around 60,000 people die in the typical week. Vax deaths could easily be hidden in the statistics.



Deaths from the CCP virus and from total deaths are way down. It may be the calm before the cytokine storm.

Patrick says
Perhaps they are desperate to "vaccinate" everybody so that it does not become too obvious when only the "vaccinated" start dying of common colds.

That makes logical sense.

But it is really hard to wrap my head around the fact that they are doing this. Maliciousness? Or cluelessness?
714   Onvacation   2021 Jul 16, 8:40am  

Deaths are half of normal and going down.

the curve is flat
715   RWSGFY   2021 Jul 16, 9:01am  

Onvacation says
Deaths are half of normal and going down.

the curve is flat


Half? Looks like 1/3.
716   WookieMan   2021 Jul 16, 9:18am  

Onvacation says
Deaths are half of normal and going down.

How does this get spun though? Are you now a conspiracy theorist? There's literally no way anyone can spin this. Covid is a virus that does little to nothing in most the population. It was easy to detect via a shitty test. Those that died with a recent positive test were labeled as covid. Are they going to say the vaccine protects against other ailments? These graphs don't make statistical sense.

They moved the goal post for profit and likely getting Trump out. Would be too tricky with cameras and everything now to off him while in office. Just get him out of office via all means. 2 impeachments and a mundane cold bug that likely is more a marker to test the virus than being deadly. Then just label all positive test for people that died as covid. I really don't think there's much doubt now looking at your charts OV.
717   Onvacation   2021 Jul 16, 9:25am  

FuckCCP89 says
Onvacation says
Deaths are half of normal and going down.

the curve is flat


Half? Looks like 1/3.

718   RWSGFY   2021 Jul 16, 9:26am  



Oh, the horror!
719   Onvacation   2021 Jul 16, 9:35am  

The long term trends seem to be 4 to 6K deaths per week from all causes. With a regular spike during flu season. Through lack of proper treatment and political mismanagement (putting sick people in convalescent homes to infect the vulnerable, restricting drugs, etc.) the 2020 flu season covid deaths/ flu deaths were about 15% greater than a bad flu season. 2021 flu season was worse with 30% more deaths than a bad flu season. The virus created by the CCP/Deep State in Wuhan was a killer.

Now we wait to see what the vax does.
720   Onvacation   2022 Sep 7, 6:33pm  

Two weeks to flatten the curve is going on year three of the emergency.

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