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Summer Patnet "poll"


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2020 Jul 12, 5:29pm   1,377 views  40 comments

by MisdemeanorRebel   ➕follow (12)   💰tip   ignore  

Likelihood of Trump winning re-election.

Likelihood of Republicans taking back the House.

Comments 1 - 40 of 40        Search these comments

1   Patrick   2020 Jul 12, 5:35pm  

I think Trump has about a 75% chance of winning again, just based on the fact of pervasive leftist violence which is obvious to everyone by now.

I don't know enough about the House to have an opinion. Kinda shocked that Ilhan Omar got elected at all when she has now overtly stated that she wants to dismantle our country.

Maybe now that Minnesota has tasted the rioting and violence that resulted from electing Omar, they will move back towards sanity. Or maybe not. The cult is not about sanity.

https://newdiscourses.com/2020/06/cult-dynamics-wokeness/
2   mell   2020 Jul 12, 5:37pm  

I think Trump has a 40% of winning right now but if he can capture a trend up in August with good economic numbers and continued reopening he can close that gap.
3   Onvacation   2020 Jul 12, 5:52pm  

My sister in law said she was voting against Trump because "The country can't take another four years of the chaos he caused". She never would have voted for Trump anyway. I keep quiet as I want to maintain marital harmony and I'm outnumbered 20 to 1.

We are on our annual pilgrimage to the family island in Maine and my wife made me promise not to talk about "the virus". We are actually planning on social distancing among the different "pods" that come together. I was asked to get tested ahead of time. When I balked and said, " If they think it's that dangerous I'm staying home." They "compromised" figuring if my wife was negative I probably was too.

As far as the election goes I suspect that they will be disrupted by aliens or murder hornets. We'll know more after the first debate.
4   mell   2020 Jul 12, 5:55pm  

Onvacation says
My sister in law said she was voting against Trump because "The country can't take another four years of the chaos he caused". She never would have voted for Trump anyway. I keep quiet as I want to maintain marital harmony and I'm outnumbered 20 to 1.

We are on our annual pilgrimage to the family island in Maine and my wife made me promise not to talk about "the virus". We are actually planning on social distancing among the different "pods" that come together. I was asked to get tested ahead of time. When I balked and said, " If they think it's that dangerous I'm staying home." They "compromised" figuring if my wife was negative I probably was too.

As far as the election goes I suspect that they will be disrupted by aliens or murder hornets. We'll know more after the first debate.


Where in Maine exactly?
5   just_passing_through   2020 Jul 12, 5:55pm  

My guess is 50:50 Trump wins. I think if he keeps looking bad in the polls that'll help him.

House and Senate I'm really not sure. I predicted losses for Republicans in the house last go round simply due to all the Republicans stepping down. If I recall many were NeverTrumpers.

I have nothing to go on right now.
6   Onvacation   2020 Jul 12, 5:57pm  

mell says

Where in Maine exactly?

Rangeley Lakes area.

You are supposed to go into Maine with a negative test or quarantine for 2 weeks when you get there.
7   stereotomy   2020 Jul 12, 5:59pm  

I flipped a coin, and based on my query prior to the flip, Trump will win.
8   MisdemeanorRebel   2020 Jul 12, 6:03pm  

I don't know what to think, but there's this if true:

Goya Facebook page gains 100,000 followers in 24 hours. Anecdotal evidence points to major increase in sales

— Stonewall Jackson (@1776Stonewall) July 12, 2020
9   mell   2020 Jul 12, 6:03pm  

Onvacation says
mell says

Where in Maine exactly?

Rangeley Lakes area.

You are supposed to go into Maine with a negative test or quarantine for 2 weeks when you get there.


Facing the same issue, we're summering in the New Harbor/Bristol area. I doubt anybody is enforcing anything in rural Maine but we need to take the test anyways. It's just that I don't trust it. We'll see..
10   just_passing_through   2020 Jul 12, 6:05pm  

They are enforcing this in Gestapo style in Hawaii. Lots and lots of tourists rounded up, put in jail and fined.
11   mell   2020 Jul 12, 6:08pm  

just_adhom_preaching says
They are enforcing this in Gestapo style in Hawaii. Lots and lots of tourists rounded up, put in jail and fined.


Quarantining in/around the cabin is not the worst thing. The whole state mandates are idiotic. It's pretty much evenly spread throughout the US now, of course rural areas have lesser case due to less crowding, but overall travelers within the US don't even make a dent.
12   Ceffer   2020 Jul 12, 6:10pm  

I think there are a lot of 'silent liberals' who are shocked by the monster they have birthed, for whom the blame to any casual observer not blinded by loyalties and dogma lies squarely on the left and the fake news.

I would give Trump a 75 percent chance of re-election. I think there is a 50 50 chance of the House getting a majority again, but I wouldn't hold my breath on that one, the reliability of the self defeating idiopolous is legend.

I would really like a viable third party of conservatives because both parties are whored out to the nth degree, it is just that the Dems are far more unscrupulous, corrupt, craven crazy, subversive and plain scary.
13   just_passing_through   2020 Jul 12, 6:10pm  

Nah, there you have to stay in a state approved hotel. The key cards only work once so if you leave you are locked out. The hotel workers rat you out to the cops too. The were talking about letting people avoid the quarantine starting Aug-1 but tomorrow they will renege on that.

They are a bunch of monkeys over there at a loss for what to do.
14   mell   2020 Jul 12, 6:14pm  

just_adhom_preaching says
Nah, there you have to stay in a state approved hotel. The key cards only work once so if you leave you are locked out. The hotel workers rat you out to the cops too. The were talking about letting people avoid the quarantine starting Aug-1 but tomorrow they will renege on that.

They are a bunch of monkeys over there at a loss for what to do.


Seriously? Are you making this up or that's fucking insane. It's totally unhealthy to be locked inside a room. Isn't that false imprisonment? I knew about the social media / IG spies but thought as long as you don't post your pics you're pretty safe. Makes me not want to go to Hawaii anymore though I like the big island.
15   Onvacation   2020 Jul 12, 6:21pm  

mell says
but we need to take the test anyways. It's just that I don't trust it

It's not like they're asking for documentation... Yet.
16   Blue   2020 Jul 12, 6:34pm  

He should do few (silly!) things like wearing facial mask etc. to pull from left who are on the fence, frastruated , confused, annoyed and undecided catogorie to make solid comeback. I suspect daca is part of it. He has high chance of winning. Also, just to be fair, the Dems don't come out with great plans so far.
17   Tenpoundbass   2020 Jul 12, 6:36pm  

If Barr and Durham are just rats and not going to do a damn thing, then Trump has already lost.

If they are timing their moves for the right time, then we all win.
18   just_passing_through   2020 Jul 12, 8:49pm  

mell says
Seriously? Are you making this up or that's fucking insane.


No, there were discussions about making tourists wear ankle bracelets and/or quarantining on barges as well.
19   just_passing_through   2020 Jul 12, 8:50pm  

Onvacation says
It's not like they're asking for documentation... Yet.


Only because they can't figure out how to make testing work.
20   WookieMan   2020 Jul 12, 9:37pm  

Yes Trump wins.

No on the house. That's where all the money is going. Biden, if he even gets to election day, is just raising money for house races. That's what we're witnessing. They're going to hope to cock block SCOTUS replacements for RBG at minimum. It's the only thing they can hope for.

just_adhom_preaching says
No, there were discussions about making tourists wear ankle bracelets and/or quarantining on barges as well.


I'm sure they can try this, but it's 100% illegal. I'd sue the fuck out of them in a heartbeat and win a fuck load of money. Might be going to Hawaii soon ;)
22   Malcolm   2020 Jul 13, 9:47am  

50-50 odds on both, imo. Seriously, it can change from day to day. If Biden keeps acting like a looney liberal, he will blow it.
23   rdm   2020 Jul 13, 9:57am  

A lot can change in 4 months. If held today it is a blood bath and a Dem sweep. The problem Trump has (the Republicans will follow his general popularity/fate up or down) is that he has little to no ability to affect in a positive way the course of events over the next 4 months. And the current course is not favorable to his reelection. But shit happens and I think it possible things turn around. So sitting 4 months out I think its a 30% chance he is reelected. 2% chance the Republicans regain house majority and a 40 % chance they maintain Republican control in Senate.

Just to remind some of my 2018 predictions, I said the Dems would retake the house with a 35-40 seat gain, and the Republicans would retain the Senate 49-51, I was off by two.
24   WookieMan   2020 Jul 13, 11:13am  

rdm says
Just to remind some of my 2018 predictions, I said the Dems would retake the house with a 35-40 seat gain, and the Republicans would retain the Senate 49-51, I was off by two.

Trump wins. It's basically a lock at this point outside of him raping a baby or something. I don't think the House shifts much at all. Dems probably keep it because there are a ton of bat shit crazy, populous enclaves of morons that think leftist policies are good for someone in rural Wisconsin, Iowa, TN, IL, etc. There's no way the vast majority of truly independent voters give Biden any love. He's toast.
25   socal2   2020 Jul 13, 11:26am  

WookieMan says
I don't think the House shifts much at all. Dems probably keep it because there are a ton of bat shit crazy, populous enclaves of morons that think leftist policies are good for someone in rural Wisconsin, Iowa, TN, IL, etc. There's no way the vast majority of truly independent voters give Biden any love. He's toast.


If Trump and the Republicans can't make a cogent case against China, Globalization and home-grown Commie/Racists of BLM in this election cycle - they deserve to lose and we are truly fucked as a people.

Republicans need to nationalize all of the local Governor, Mayor, City Council, Police Chief, and City Council elections this Fall.

It should be pretty easy to criticize all of the various Prog Loons running big cities into the ground like Seattle, LA, New York, Minneapolis, DC, Philly. Do we want our cities and towns turning into Democrat run shit holes with racist BLM rioters running the place?
26   WookieMan   2020 Jul 13, 11:29am  

socal2 says
It should be pretty easy to criticize all of the various Prog Loons running big cities into the ground like Seattle, LA, New York, Minneapolis, DC, Philly. Do we want our cities and towns turning into Democrat run shit holes with racist BLM rioters running the place?

They already are though. Pull the cops and let them have at it. You can't blame the federal government for that. Just like we saw with Chaz or whatever fucking name they couldn't agree on, they'll turn on each other the first chance they get. They're losers. Always have been. Losers keep losing because they don't learn from the mistakes they make. Just blame everyone else. It's a sickness.
27   Shaman   2020 Jul 13, 1:18pm  

Republicans are going to vote with a frequency and urgency that’s never been seen before. This election is absolutely existential for conservatives. If we lose, we will probably lose our way of life, our rights and freedoms, our property, and maybe even our lives. It’s that fucking dire!
The hate and the disruptions and the riots and th e lockdowns and the censorship and the cancelling of all dissenters and the race-baiting have been nothing short of open insurrection by the Left. They’ve shown that they will burn this motherfucker down if they don’t get to call the shots!
They’ve already laid waste to the economy and civil discourse, many large cities, and all sense of national cohesion. They’ve banned people (basically permanently) from going to church!
It’s the most fucked up governance we’ve ever seen from any party at anytime and it’s clear as ducking glass who is doing it.

Democrats are not nearly as fired up to vote as conservatives. They couldn’t possibly be.

If I am right, and conservatives come out in unheard of numbers and moderates join us, it will be the largest upset in modern political history. Democrats will lose states and positions thought safe for the rest of the century. They will be set back so far that they might cease to exist as a party.
28   WookieMan   2020 Jul 13, 1:40pm  

Shaman says
If I am right, and conservatives come out in unheard of numbers and moderates join us, it will be the largest upset in modern political history. Democrats will lose states and positions thought safe for the rest of the century. They will be set back so far that they might cease to exist as a party.

POTUS will be Trump. I don't see the House shifting much and that's their goal right now. If they lose the House this fall then SCOTUS is conservative for at least a decade maybe two with no resistance against Trump appointments. This is why we're seeing a wave of bull shit right now. 20 cops kill 20 black people, but 20 blacks kill other blacks in one weekend in Chicago and that's just fine. The hypocrisy in mind numbing and they keep coming up with bull shit narratives and you're racists if you question BLM. Blacks were doing the best they had been in ages. Until they realize they're a pawn in a chess game and their culture is toxic, nothing will change.
29   Onvacation   2020 Jul 13, 1:47pm  

just_adhom_preaching says
Onvacation says
It's not like they're asking for documentation... Yet.


Only because they can't figure out how to make testing work.

Does it NEED to work?

When I was a kid when people talked about authoritarian regimes the example always given was the Gestapo asking for, "Your papers please". It was celebrated that in America we had liberty. The slippery slope is tilting down.
30   Ceffer   2020 Jul 13, 1:53pm  

If Trump has a 75 percent chance of winning the vote, and a 50 percent chance of surviving assassination, then I suppose that gives him a 37.5 percent chance of being re-elected.
31   WookieMan   2020 Jul 13, 1:58pm  

Ceffer says
and a 50 percent chance of surviving assassination

They're too big of pussies to try that. They just shoot and kill people that say all lives matter because they're absolute cowards.
32   WookieMan   2020 Jul 13, 3:13pm  

TrumpingTits says
?????

House has nothing to do with SCOTUS appointments. Senate does.

They do though. It's a perceived mandate. Just because voters don't get an entire state to elect two dem Senators doesn't mean they won't leverage having more house seats in the same state. Senators want to stay Senators and the highly populous areas will remember if they fuck up a SCOTUS appointment. It's an indirect relationship, but still valid. Control of the house is important, not just through legislation but perception. You could easily have never Trumper's not approving a SCOTUS judge based on what happens in House races in their state for fear of not getting reelected.
33   WookieMan   2020 Jul 13, 3:44pm  

TrumpingTits says
Example is no way in hell California will EVER elect a GOP Senator no matter how much he/she promised to kiss liberal ass.

Ignore CA. The state is nothing like any other in the entire country. It's not reality.

A Republican Senator in a purple or blue state has to account for house races and the results. They'd be stupid not to. There are some Republican Senators that would feel they have to vote down a conservative judge under the auspices of losing their Senate seat. This is 100% true. Our last Republican Senator (Mark Kirk) lost his seat to Tammy fucking Duckworth because he wasn't left enough.

House races and any major shifts 100% matter to Senators. A very good friend of mine had their kid go through the Page program. I have no incentive to make shit up. I'm just taking information I know to be true from actual Senators. You don't have to believe me and I don't care if you do or don't. The House has major influence on Judicial selections across the board.
34   clambo   2020 Jul 13, 3:52pm  

Trump will win.
The Hillary vote was comprised of a lot of females who voted based on her sex.
This year the pervert demented Biden will not be so popular with them.

These women will either stay home, or vote for Trump.

Trump will wipe the floor with Biden in a debate. This can’t be spun by the media unless YouTube censors it after the fact. Anyone who sees Biden live will be disgusted by him.

The Trump voters I know are motivated to vote; you would have to kidnap or kill them to stop them from voting. I’m one of them.

I don’t know about the house, but I hope that voters are sick of the lawlessness and vote some bums out.
35   WookieMan   2020 Jul 13, 3:56pm  

clambo says
I don’t know about the house, but I hope that voters are sick of the lawlessness and vote some bums out.

The House is too easy. Both parties do it, but gerrymandering makes it difficult to shift seats from one party to another.

Here's Chuy Garcia's district. A Mexican born House Rep. It's drawn specifically to encompass majority hispanic populations.
36   Patrick   2020 Jul 13, 5:50pm  

Holy shit, that is the mother of all Gerrymanders!
37   SunnyvaleCA   2020 Jul 13, 5:52pm  

Trump winning: Decent chance, but there's going to be a concerted effort at cheating in states Trump barely won last time around. We'll see if vote-by-mail becomes mandatory.

House of representatives: Are the Republicans even going to gain seats? I doubt it. Also, a major problem is that house districts are apportioned by population in an area, not citizens. So, to the extent that voters living in high illegal-alien areas will vote for Democrats, the house many never go back Republican.

Senate: Not sure this time around, looks like Democrats, according to the gamblers (who had Trump losing last time around and this time around). This is way more important that the house. If Senate goes Democrat, Trump is likely to get 0 judges appointed and Trump will get removed from office with another fake-evidence impeachment.
38   WookieMan   2020 Jul 13, 6:51pm  

Patrick says
Holy shit, that is the mother of all Gerrymanders!

It's why the House won't really move that much. You know Chicago obviously and the fact it's the grid system or whatever it's called. There's absolutely no reason for a district to be drawn up this way except for egregious gerrymandering. You can literally see the squares on the map. Republicans do this as well, so not saying the right isn't fucking around either. District should all be based on latitude and longitude lines and then distribute the land mass by equal populations. This will never happen as it likely would benefit conservatives greatly.
39   just_passing_through   2020 Jul 13, 6:52pm  

SunnyvaleCA says
but there's going to be a concerted effort at cheating in states Trump barely won last time around.


This is why I only give 50:50. The demoncrats are cheaters. It's how they were founded.
40   HeadSet   2020 Jul 14, 7:06am  

Those bogus moderates are facing tough fights this election...many are toast because of how they voted on shampeachment, for example.

I hope you are correct, especially in VA.

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