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Stocks - I’m out!


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2020 Jun 18, 9:57am   9,463 views  165 comments

by Shaman   ➕follow (4)   💰tip   ignore  

Bad shit coming down the pipe. Get ready for Great Depression Part II.
Those of you who know me a bit from my history know that I don’t pull this trigger lightly. I didn’t fall for all the bear schemes in the last five years. I’ve been a bullish investor for the past 10 years.

The last time I did this (everything to bonds) was in December of 2007.

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1   rocketjoe79   2020 Jun 18, 10:42am  

My son the financial wiz would ask: how do you know when to get back in?
2   FortWayneAsNancyPelosiHaircut   2020 Jun 18, 10:56am  

Are you moving everything to bonds, if yes which bonds? I like all advice I can get please.
4   GNL   2020 Jun 18, 11:01am  

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

So, there's never going to be any more crashes?
5   Shaman   2020 Jun 18, 11:10am  

FortWayneIndiana says
Are you moving everything to bonds, if yes which bonds? I like all advice I can get please.


Just basic federal bonds. And yes I did.
When i get back in the DOW will be around 15k, maybe lower.

The elites are dead set on tanking our economy to get Trump out and other reasons having to do with power and control and money.
Only 62% of businesses are paying rent right now. Starting to see lots of preforeclosures on the market. We will see a repeat of the bank insolvency of 2008 if this trend continues. Try e service sector isn’t coming back anytime soon.
Unemployment benefits will stop being paid out for lack of state funds, and the federal subsidy runs out by August. People are going to be broke as well as jobless.
Riots and unrest will intensify.
White collar workers and teachers will be getting pink slips by the millions starting this Fall.
We aren’t looking at Great Depression possibilities here. It’s going to be that and worse, with food riots and race riots and looting and arson. Vigilantes will eventually stop it at significant loss of life.
And that will be the justification the elites need to send in the military.
Our country will be under martial law by next year.

Unless some drastic steps happen to change this, that’s where we are heading.
I don’t think that we will deviate course because the elites are determined to keep this train on the rails until we go over the washed out bridge.
6   Al_Sharpton_for_President   2020 Jun 18, 12:21pm  

WineHorror1 says
So, there's never going to be any more crashes?


7   MisdemeanorRebel   2020 Jun 18, 12:23pm  

Not all rich and influential people are part of the Globalist agenda.

Some are downright pissed off and even terrified of the current situation.

Many make their fortune in commercial real estate, restaurant chains, hotel building and hotel chains, etc.

We'll see. I'm surprisingly optimistic.

The big danger is Michelle Obama.
8   clambo   2020 Jun 18, 12:35pm  

As others have said, don’t fight the Fed.

If you are planning on being around in 10 years, I would stay in stocks.

I don’t have a crystal ball, but I think interest rates are more important than other economic issues when it comes to stocks.

There is new money all the time seeking a place to invest; interest rates are lower than stock dividends in some cases, so money will go to stocks.

I have a bias for stocks since my first mutual fund was a bond fund which paid a lot of interest, later I got out and bought a stock fund. I’m very happy with my decision decades ago.

Recently the economy with Obama sucked and stocks did okay.

I’m going to try to make a few bucks soon to put in some new money, Roth IRA can take new cash.
9   ignoreme   2020 Jun 18, 12:41pm  

Why not buy some shorts if you’re so sure? All the info you mentioned is publicly available so has been priced in.

If you’re worried about the elites crashing the economy on purpose to stop Trump, the odds of that conspiracy theory being true has been priced in as well.
10   mell   2020 Jun 18, 2:57pm  

The Fed has been pumping liquidity into the market like no tomorrow, people may cash out of trannies that appreciated beyond their wildest dreams like NKLA with 20 billion market cap without a product on the market, TSLA (hey maybe it will continue to climb higher) and more, but they will likely seek value stocks when the Fed bazooka starts slowing down. I don't see a crash in the near future, but I'm not a cyclical trader anyways and biotech will stay hotter for a while than the rest fo the market. If Trump loses - even though Biden is considered moderate - or if it will become clearer that he will lose then I can see some decline as Trump is a low interest man, and those cheap rates would disappear under sleepy joe..
12   Shaman   2020 Jun 18, 3:06pm  

Look, our economy was heavily based on service jobs already which is where we stashed the underclass, there to be our servants when we wished luxury and convenience. Now we have abandoned them and withdrawn to our castles to await the coming of the great vaccine and these people are left in the cold without a job and with the businesses that employed them folding by the thousand every day.
Now big corporations are frothing at the mouth to raise shareholder value by laying off white collar workers who survived the past three months working from home. Come September, they’ll have the green light. Come September, a whole fuck ton of teachers are also going to get the pink slip. And we will still be in a pandemic with media hyping the fear to the moon.
Think that will be good for the economy?
The stock market bounced back based on ONE CALCULATION! That we were going to have a V shaped recovery, and everything would be back to normal by summer or at least by Fall. As that fails to happen, markets will decline, slowly at first and then faster as the panic sets in. By September it will be in crash zone.

Don’t say I didn’t warn you.
13   WookieMan   2020 Jun 18, 3:24pm  

Shaman says
That we were going to have a V shaped recovery, and everything would be back to normal by summer or at least by Fall. As that fails to happen, markets will decline, slowly at first and then faster as the panic sets in. By September it will be in crash zone.

Don’t say I didn’t warn you

You don't have to say, but I believe you're out in CA? IL has draconian lock down rules, but no one gives a fuck. Things opened up pretty much the last week or two. I've been to WI, IN, TN and KY since the major lock downs started. Most places aren't as bad as the deep blue states. Even IL now is kind of normal, just with stupid restrictions.

Also a massive chunk of the service jobs on UE are making more than they would working. I'm not saying you're wrong, but July will be interesting. People are going to have to get up off their ass and work. The problem is we won't know about it until September to see if people did because the data lags. Age matters obviously so I'm a bit more careless about stocks as I have plenty of time before retirement.

I'm personally sinking more money in with every check. It could drop 50% tomorrow and I'd be okay by the time I reach 50. Unless every dividend fund/stock dries up and I'm not getting income from the investments. I don't see that happening.

Local and state governments are getting destroyed though. That's where the blood bath is. I don't know how that plays out in the stock market, but I do think the businesses that survive will do just fine, if not better since some of the competition will have gone out of business.
14   ignoreme   2020 Jun 18, 4:01pm  

Shaman says
Don’t say I didn’t warn you.


You could be right. But the odds of you being right is already priced into the current asset prices. Studies have shown again and again that market timing lowers your returns.

But hey, it takes a lot of guts to post that you made a move like this. In 6 months you’ll either look like a genius or a moron.
15   joshuatrio   2020 Jun 18, 4:24pm  

WookieMan says
Things opened up pretty much the last week or two. I've been to WI, IN, TN and KY since the major lock downs started. Most places aren't as bad as the deep blue states. Even IL now is kind of normal, just with stupid restrictions.

Also a massive chunk of the service jobs on UE are making more than they would working. I'm not saying you're wrong, but July will be interesting. People are going to have to get up off their ass and work. The problem is we won't know about it until September to see if people did because the data lags. Age matters obviously so I'm a bit more careless about stocks as I have plenty of time before retirement.

I'm personally sinking more money in with every check. It could drop 50% tomorrow and I'd be okay by the time I reach 50. Unless every dividend fund/stock dries up and I'm not getting income from the investments. I don't see that happening


I agree. I've been to SC, NC, GA and FL and operations are beginning to resume as normal. Traffic is coming back down here as well. In fact when I was vacationing last week in NC, the vacation company was having a hard time hiring people due to the temporary bump in unemployment benefits.

I don't think the fear mongering is going to work. Yes I believe there will be more pain, but I think things will come back quickly after the election.

I'm with wookie in that I'm investing more and more every check into the market. It may take a year or so, but I think my return will be 2-3xnmy initial investment.
16   Rin   2020 Jun 18, 4:34pm  

Ppl. I'd posted this chart, quite some time ago, it's the S&P500 with the 1 business quarter Bollinger bands around the index using weekly candlesticks.



So far, the current rally has easily closed above that median of some ~2959 and has none of the features (price bars not able to have a weekly close above the pre-crash median) which tells one that this is the bear market rally preceding the next wave down.

I think the future crash, via QE, etc, has dodged the bullet again for another season. So yes, someday, the markets will in fact enter a bear market, but that time isn't now.
17   Patrick   2020 Jun 18, 6:00pm  

I bought CDs and bonds in 2008 and while I didn't lose, I also missed out on one of the biggest bull markets ever.

Yes, the market is being irrational, but I'm going to roll with it for now.

Not investment advice. I could totally be wrong, I just want to be wrong differently this time.
18   B.A.C.A.H.   2020 Jun 18, 6:34pm  

Shaman says
The stock market bounced back based on ONE CALCULATION!


Agreed. But how are you gonna get a return from bonds? Just asking.
19   Booger   2020 Jun 18, 6:48pm  

mell says
people may cash out of trannies that appreciated beyond their wildest dreams


Since when have trannies appreciated in value???
20   Shaman   2020 Jun 18, 6:49pm  

B.A.C.A.H. says
Shaman says
The stock market bounced back based on ONE CALCULATION!


Agreed. But how are you gonna get a return from bonds? Just asking.


Just like I did last time (2009). Sell them and buy stocks on the upswing. Finding a bottom is always hard, but at some point the math will work out beautifully for a very very large return on the way back up. Because it will go back up. The people who’ve said they’re going to hold for now won’t lose in the long run. They’ll just have missed a grand opportunity to buy stocks at a fire sale.
21   Booger   2020 Jun 18, 6:51pm  

WookieMan says
It could drop 50% tomorrow and I'd be okay by the time I reach 50.


There are people here under 50?
22   Shaman   2020 Jun 18, 6:57pm  

Newbie123 says
Red days are buying opportunities,


And red YEARS are massive buying opportunities... if your cash isn’t all tied up in bottomed out stocks.
23   just_passing_through   2020 Jun 18, 6:57pm  

Booger says
There are people here under 50?


Oh me me me!!
24   B.A.C.A.H.   2020 Jun 18, 6:58pm  

Shaman says

Just like I did last time (2009). Sell them and buy stocks on the upswing

If you're going to use bonds for dry powder to get back into stocks, have you considered cash instead? Especially since bond yields are so low.

There are risks with bonds that their market value could drop.
25   just_passing_through   2020 Jun 18, 7:02pm  

B.A.C.A.H. says
have you considered cash instead?


That's me too! I'm aligned with Shaman but I got out way too soon and there is an opportunity cost. I believe Rin as well but I think once the free money runs out the technicals are going to change.

But I'm just some amateur who made a lot of money over the last 15 years and who's skared to lose it.

Considering going some swing trading with a small position again though. Just using RSI, candles and maybe a dow etf for some quick ins and outs.
26   MAGA   2020 Jun 18, 7:09pm  

I've been out of the market for five years. Everything is in CDs with my credit union. I am 67-years-old, retired, debt-free, and have a positive cash flow. Most of my estate is going to charity after I pass away.
27   GNL   2020 Jun 18, 7:19pm  

MAGA says
I've been out of the market for five years. Everything is in CDs with my credit union. I am 67-years-old, retired, debt-free, and have a positive cash flow. Most of my estate is going to charity after I pass away.

Job well done.
28   Al_Sharpton_for_President   2020 Jun 18, 7:37pm  

The potential to accumulate wealth is the carrot on the stick that many people chase. And if they are engaged in productive pursuits, society benefits. What happens if you take away the ability to build and retain wealth? Look at communist countries. And so when events happen that derail the economy, like Covid-19, the Fed steps in to support the price of assets, which are stores of wealth. And the gov steps in to bail out the banks, in which people stash money. And folks who have accumulated wealth are grateful, and believe that the right actions were taken.
29   BayArea   2020 Jun 18, 8:33pm  

The Fed has been and will be propping.

Invest and don’t miss the boat bears.

In the famous words of Warren Buffet, “buy the dip, faggot”
30   komputodo   2020 Jun 18, 8:39pm  

WineHorror1 says
So, there's never going to be any more crashes?

Of course there will be...major volatility makes for major profits for the insiders. Like the oil prices a couple of months ago....$-100 a barrel to $+30 a barrel in a few weeks...How many insiders made a fortune from that?...lolol...and how many ousiders got their faces ripped off? lol
31   komputodo   2020 Jun 18, 8:41pm  

MAGA says
I've been out of the market for five years. Everything is in CDs with my credit union. I am 67-years-old, retired, debt-free, and have a positive cash flow. Most of my estate is going to charity after I pass away.

Have you considered BLM or the george floyd family?
32   AD   2020 Jun 18, 9:06pm  

.
I like writing covered calls as I did that back in 2009 to 2013. I bought 1000 share of Carnival Cruise Line at $10 a share a couple of months ago.

I have been writing covered calls each week and making at least $250 a week with the contracts expiring (ie.., out of the money) for last 10 weeks just on the underlying stock or asset Carnival Cruise Line.

I am also writing covered calls for other stocks and ETFs I bought in April like JETS, UNG, Bloomin Brands, IMAX, Royal Caribbean, MGM, Exxon, Chevron, Phillips 66, and Twitter.

.
33   Patrick   2020 Jun 18, 9:16pm  

I read "One Up On Wall Street" by Peter Lynch when I started investing, and I always remembered Lynch saying "Options are a fast game played by some of the smartest people in the world."

That was enough to keep me out of options. I don't short stock either. Or buy mutual funds (except for Vanguard index funds). I just straight out own shares.
34   just_passing_through   2020 Jun 18, 9:17pm  

komputodo says
Have you considered BLM or the george floyd family?


hhahahahahahaaha!
35   B.A.C.A.H.   2020 Jun 18, 9:39pm  

The risk-reward for parking "capital" in treasury debt that pays no interest, (or nearly no interest), especially for small depositors like most of us, is not worth it. Since there's no interest income, the only upside will be for a capital gain if the rates go negative.

The downside though, is that the market value of those bonds could go down. A lot. In recent months UST bond yields (and therefore bond market values) have been more volatile than stocks.

When, or if, a stock price crash comes and it's time to "jump back in", we must buy with cash (or credit I suppose for fancy-pants margin folks). We cannot buy with bonds. Those bonds must be sold to convert to cash to make the stock purchase. If the market value of those near zero yielding bonds has dropped, you won't get your money back in the sale. If you're in cash, you'll still have your cash. It won't be like you missed out on much income compared to those low yielding bonds.

I dunno, dude. With government bond yields where they are now, I'd use FDIC insured bank deposits for dry powder. (Maybe that's what I'm doing). I would not be buying bonds for dry powder.

If you wanna have bonds or bond funds for the income then those might be the "high yield" corporate types. But you said as dry powder to jump into equities. I like cash for that. Cash is King.
36   AD   2020 Jun 18, 10:10pm  

.

Writing covered calls presents the least risk.

Never trade on margin and never short a stock. Always trade with a cash account (ie.., covered calls), and your option level is 0 (covered calls and cash secured puts).

If you want extra risk by shorting the market than get a Proshares ETF like Proshares Short S&P 500 (SH) or even the more leveraged short ETFs like Proshares Ultrashort S&P 500 (SPXU).

I did the covered call strategy back in 2009-2013 and am doing it now with the repeat in volatility.

Its not difficult and it does not require any significant analysis. Just sell or write contracts (i.e., "sell to open" or "write to open") that expire within 5 business days and with strike prices that are at least 20% greater than the current share price for the most volatile stocks and ETFs like Carnival Cruise Line and JETS.

I expect perhaps silver etf (SLV) will rise and show volatility as well, but bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are competition to precious metals more now than in 2009-2012.

Even with non volatile or stable underlying stocks and ETFs you can make an extra 7% a year with covered calls.

This is one of the better sites out there: https://www.borntosell.com/covered-call-tutorial/covered-call-example

.
37   WookieMan   2020 Jun 19, 5:48am  

Booger says
WookieMan says
It could drop 50% tomorrow and I'd be okay by the time I reach 50.


There are people here under 50?

I don't think there are many. 37 this month for me. I for some reason got into real estate as a career during college and stumbled across this site I think about 2007ish. I can't remember the exact year, but I lurked forever before getting active and commenting. I was a fucking baby when I found this place basically.
38   BayArea   2020 Jun 19, 6:03am  

Patrick says
I read "One Up On Wall Street" by Peter Lynch when I started investing, and I always remembered Lynch saying "Options are a fast game played by some of the smartest people in the world."

That was enough to keep me out of options. I don't short stock either. Or buy mutual funds (except for Vanguard index funds). I just straight out own shares.


Vanguard has a low etf equivalent for nearly every MF they offer...
39   Shaman   2020 Jul 9, 8:56am  

I gave you all plenty of warning.
Now, here comes the Depression.
40   GNL   2020 Jul 9, 9:09am  

Shaman says
I gave you all plenty of warning.
Now, here comes the Depression.

What happened?

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