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billionaire hedge fund manager says stock market may drop 50%

By ad follow ad   2020 May 5, 9:42pm 1,245 views   27 comments   watch   nsfw   quote   share      


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-may-get-cut-in-half-but-this-most-undervalued-asset-is-about-to-surge-billionaire-investor-says-2020-05-05?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

The billionaire Paul Singer the market may drop 50% from its all time highs. It dropped 35% in March. So we may have another downturn and a larger drop according to Singer. He also said to invest in gold.
1   clambo   ignore (5)   2020 May 5, 9:54pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I’m betting he’s wrong.
Edit: since I know that people who received their free virus money are spending it, I think I’m right.
I’m sure the Apple stores will sell a lot of stuff.
I’m not enthusiastic about airline stocks, cruise ship stocks, restaurant chains, movie theater stocks.

Gold is a joke, it’s not an investment.

I have a friend who has a bunch of silver and gold coins in a safe; some of the silver was bought at $50+/oz.
2   FortWayneAsNancyPelosiHaircut   ignore (4)   2020 May 5, 9:56pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

if he knew he was right, he'd not make that info public, but would capitalize on it.
he's just trying to create panic, so he can buy cheap.
3   Rin   ignore (9)   2020 May 5, 10:05pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

What he's saying is basically what any investor says, after a lengthy bull market.

The first sign of a bear market rally (a rally within a bigger bearish cycle) is that re-test of the prior moving average, before the 2nd crash. If the market can't sustain those re-test levels for more than a few weeks of price bars, then another wave downward follows.

Folks, this has happened before, 2000-2002 & 2007-2009. On longer term charts, the essentials of technical analysis hold up.

ad says
He also said to invest in gold.


No more than 10% of any portfolio. Gold is a hedge against the loss in confidence in central banking, since all currencies are fiat based.
4   ad   ignore (0)   2020 May 5, 10:09pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

FortWayneIndiana says
if he knew he was right, he'd not make that info public, but would capitalize on it.
he's just trying to create panic, so he can buy cheap.


Excellent point. This is like the scare tactic Goldman Sachs employed in March.
5   Onvacation   ignore (7)   2020 May 5, 11:01pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Rin says
What he's saying is basically what any investor says, after a lengthy bull market.

.

Nice to see you back from the honeymoon.
6   BayArea   ignore (1)   2020 May 6, 6:28am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Fake news, he doesn’t know. He has no fucking idea.
7   Ceffer   ignore (6)   2020 May 6, 10:49am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I think we can drop the billion part and just call him air.
8   FuckCCP89   ignore (5)   2020 May 6, 11:44am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

OccasionalCortex says
Of course this guy already bought gold and shorted major stocks prior to making this announcement.


Right. But for this to work people need to know who the fuck he is, and they simply don't.
9   Goran_K   ignore (3)   2020 May 6, 11:46am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Drop 50%.

lol what a clown

Of course, I'm still storing yams and bullets just in case.
10   ad   ignore (0)   2020 May 6, 11:53am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Goran_K says
Of course, I'm still storing yams and bullets just in case.


During extreme volatility, there is a lot of chatter like this from gold bugs and shorters.

I agree, as if the US dollar collapses, there are bigger problems to worry about. It is not as if someone will give you a box of canned food for a few Silver Eagle coins.

It will be more desperate economics by then, and gold, silver, bitcoin, etc. will not be the medium of exchange.

At that point, people will resort to the very basics of trade which means bartering like trading 12 eggs for someone to fix a broken toilet.

At that point, society will be at least 90% different than what it is today.
11   FuckCCP89   ignore (5)   2020 May 6, 11:59am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

ad says
Goran_K says
Of course, I'm still storing yams and bullets just in case.


During extreme volatility, there is a lot of chatter like this from gold bugs and shorters.

I agree, as if the US dollar collapses, there are bigger problems to worry about. It is not as if someone will give you a box of canned food for a few Silver Eagle coins.

It will be more desperate economics by then, and gold, silver, bitcoin, etc. will not be the medium of exchange.

At that point, people will resort to the very basics of trade which means bartering like trading 12 eggs for someone to fix a broken toilet.

At that point, society will be at least 90% different than what it is today.


Yep. If you want to stockpile something compact and valuable during TEOTWAWKI - start with antibiotics. Veterinary ones will do just fine.
12   joshuatrio   ignore (0)   2020 May 6, 12:50pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Considering things are getting back to normal in China, Europe and parts of the US, the market should start rising in the next few weeks.
13   Rin   ignore (9)   2020 May 6, 3:27pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Disclaimer: The following is my opinion, not financial advice.

Ppl, if someone is worried that we're in the middle of a bear market rally, buy a put option on the S&P500 ETF, as the S&P500 price action reaches the 2950 to 3050 levels. Not a wick, but the actual body of the candlestick, on a weekly chart (Read: Not daily price bar).

That's the "re-test level" prior to the 2020 spring crash.

You should be able to get a decent price, even if you extend the expiration period to October/November.

Then, you're all set if this is in fact, a bear market because you'll be in the money fast and then, you've offset your cap losses from your blue chips during the sell off.

And then, since you have blue chips, you'll still get your dividend checks every quarter.
14   FortWayneAsNancyPelosiHaircut   ignore (4)   2020 May 6, 3:44pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Rin says
What he's saying is basically what any investor says, after a lengthy bull market.

The first sign of a bear market rally (a rally within a bigger bearish cycle) is that re-test of the prior moving average, before the 2nd crash. If the market can't sustain those re-test levels for more than a few weeks of price bars, then another wave downward follows.

Folks, this has happened before, 2000-2002 & 2007-2009. On longer term charts, the essentials of technical analysis hold up.

ad says
He also said to invest in gold.


No more than 10% of any portfolio. Gold is a hedge against the loss in confidence in central banking, since all currencies are fiat based.


Rin in simpleton terms (for people like me).
Do you think that we'll have market drop in next few month (at least on some level)? And naturally followed by recovery?
Or do you just expect small dips here and there, usual fluctuation?

Do you recommend moving money out of the market, or just moving them all into divident stocks temporarily? (not all of my investments pay dividents).
15   Cash   ignore (2)   2020 May 6, 3:58pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

FortWayneIndiana says
Do you think that we'll have market drop in next few month


The markets are going to get tromped it is time to short almost anything in sight. The world has never seen this situation not even close, so besides a few items of comparison that may show some applicable possibilities I far from suggest jumping in long trying to front run some V shaped recovery, it simply is not going to happen.
16   Rin   ignore (9)   2020 May 6, 4:00pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

FortWayneIndiana says
Do you recommend moving money out of the market, or just moving them all into divident stocks temporarily? (not all of my investments pay dividents).


I've pretty much everything in dividend stocks since summer of 19. And yes, I use DRIPs to increase my quarterly holdings.

FortWayneIndiana says
Do you think that we'll have market drop in next few month (at least on some level)? And naturally followed by recovery?
Or do you just expect small dips here and there, usual fluctuation?


Since I use the technicals, more than let's say the fundamentals (which in this case is tricky since I believe the rally of 2019 took a lot of the Trump tax incentives into account), no one who isn't somewhat clairvoyant can see the future as to whether or not it's a simple blip, as in 2016 or 2018, perhaps a combo of the two, or a true bear market as in the dotcom or real estate/finance bubbles of yesteryear.

So as a technical type of thinker, I look at the middle of the "business quarter" Bollinger band before the spring crash and that is the level of 2950 to 3050.

From there, if one buys some put options on the S&P500, with a nearby strike price, one can get a decent price which can hedge the losses if the bear market resumes its course. And during that time, your dividend checks will still keep coming and adding shares at a discounted price.

Sure, this whole thing may fade and then, your options will expire worthless but still, you've hedged your losses and the rest of the portfolio made money for you.
17   Shaman   ignore (2)   2020 May 6, 4:14pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

ad says
I agree, as if the US dollar collapses, there are bigger problems to worry about. It is not as if someone will give you a box of canned food for a few Silver Eagle coins.


This is the fundamental truth that gold bugs forget. All money, all precious metals...EVERYTHING IN THE WORLD hold no value except what people agree on as it’s value. If you were the only person in the world, you’d have everything and nothing would be worth anything except whatever use you found for it to meet your needs. Gold is great for writing on, will retain scratched-on script for hundreds of millennia. It’s probably good fishing weight material. And it’s a fabulous conductor of electricity. Other than that, it’s kind of pointless. You can’t eat it, use it for shelter, and it’s too heavy to wear as clothing.
18   Rin   ignore (9)   2020 May 6, 4:21pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Shaman says

This is the fundamental truth that gold bugs forget.


Gold bugs are also focused on the Fed and the 'Creature of Jekyll Island' type of theories which more of less says that the entire global monetary system is rigged.

With that in mind, yes, if one lived in a country overrun by communists, see Laos/Cambodia/Vietnam during the 70s, and one has a gold account in let's say Australia, then yes, after one escapes from the war/re-education zone, via the 'boat people' passage, then that person can start over in Australia, Canada, or the US with money in the bank and not have to sleep on the streets.

Unfortunately, for us, if the US were to become like Laos/Cambodia/Vietnam, then chances are, so will Canada, UK, Australia, and New Zealand and then, there will be no place to run to, to re-claim that gold account.
19   Fortwaynemobile   ignore (3)   2020 May 6, 4:32pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Thanks Rin
20   Rin   ignore (9)   2020 May 6, 6:57pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Rin says
if one lived in a country overrun by communists, see Laos/Cambodia/Vietnam during the 70s, and one has a gold account in let's say Australia


BTW, I just got off the phone with a Cambodian friend.

He told me that one of the survivors of the Khmer Rouge, a friend of the family, actually did this before the infamous coup. During the Vietnam war, he had a chance to go to Thailand and purchase into an Australian gold certificate program, buying a mere 25 oz, trading at $60USD/oz, which was some 60 Thai Baht to 1 USD ratio back then, since the west doesn't deal with Cambodian currency.

Well, after escaping hell, by the end of the 1970s, as a refugee on the Thai border, he was able to start over in Canada with some $5000USD ($20000 USD in today's value).

That's an insurance policy against both political and currency instability.
21   Rin   ignore (9)   2020 Jun 4, 1:13pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Rin says
So as a technical type of thinker, I look at the middle of the "business quarter" Bollinger band before the spring crash and that is the level of 2950 to 3050.


I don't know but this rally is looking strong as it's easily finding support in my range above w/o those weird looking inverted hammers for the weekly price bar.

If it can sustain this for another week or two, then in effect, the Bear Market was postponed. And given the sad state of affairs, I'd rather wait than to have another market crash so early after re-opening the economy.
22   KgK one   ignore (0)   2020 Jun 4, 1:26pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

We had minor crash 2002-3 then low rates to prop up housing, then actual crash n recession in 2008. All during republican govt.

Current crash is 2002-3 version. Since trump wants 2nd term it won't crash till he is elected.

Thanks run for technical analysis also.
23   Ceffer   ignore (6)   2020 Jun 4, 1:28pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

The stock market has recovered all of my lost filthy lucre. I can roll around in my money bins again. DEEP STATE FAIL!
24   FortWayneAsNancyPelosiHaircut   ignore (4)   2020 Jun 4, 1:29pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Rin says
Rin says
So as a technical type of thinker, I look at the middle of the "business quarter" Bollinger band before the spring crash and that is the level of 2950 to 3050.


I don't know but this rally is looking strong as it's easily finding support in my range above w/o those weird looking inverted hammers for the weekly price bar.

If it can sustain this for another week or two, then in effect, the Bear Market was postponed. And given the sad state of affairs, I'd rather wait than to have another market crash so early after re-opening the economy.


I think there is a lot of artificial instability lately, it's hard to predict where anything will go, or how far this political climate will be pushed. I assume calm after November, really thinking of pulling everything out till November, and invest after elections where craziness should subside as it'll no longer have a chance to change elections.
25   Rin   ignore (9)   2020 Jun 4, 2:57pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

FortWayneIndiana says
it's hard to predict where anything will go


Here's the thing, since this is basically the consolidation period, a person can still use the S&P500 ETF put option, when the current rally hits its best week this June, with the idea of selling it near the end of July to keep 2/3 to 3/4 of one's costs, since options retain value until near expiration. Seriously, if the market doesn't re-crash by July, the bear case is over till the next cycle.
26   mell   ignore (6)   2020 Jun 4, 3:37pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I love the regained volatility for some good swing trading, but longer term the bet is still up that's why I bought in heavily around the leftoid induced Covid bottom. Demonrats are trying everything to keep small business and entrepreneurs down but you can't fight 'Merica. When Trump wins in December expect a continued moderate bull market. At least into 2021/2022.
27   joshuatrio   ignore (0)   2020 Jun 4, 4:47pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I'm up at 40% since I started dumping into stocks about a month ago. Coming back quick now that the cats outta the bag about Corona being a hoax.

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