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CDC numbers seem to show that Johns Hopkins is significantly over-reporting Wuhan virus deaths


 invite response                
2020 May 2, 10:25pm   1,087 views  13 comments

by Patrick   ➕follow (55)   💰tip   ignore  

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html

Scroll to the bottom, look at "View Data Table" which is a pdf link. Open the pdf file and see this:



Take this formula for each row in 2020: (% of Total - Baseline) * Total Deaths

That's excess over normal deaths for that week of the year. Add them up. It comes to 39,840 deaths above what was expected from pneumonia plus influenza in a normal year.

So we actually have about 40,000 excess deaths up to April 25th. Even if you add in 2,000 deaths per day for this week, it still does not match the the 67,444 deaths reported on worldometers.info or the 64,943 deaths as reported by Johns Hopkins as of today.

Here's the raw data from the pdf file if you want to try this at home:

Week Total_Deaths Number pct_of_total Baseline Threshold
1 59,146 4,441 7.5 6.7 7.0
2 59,194 4,471 7.6 6.7 7.1
3 57,668 4,365 7.6 6.8 7.2
4 57,065 4,238 7.4 6.9 7.2
5 57,263 4,156 7.3 6.9 7.3
6 57,613 4,165 7.2 7.0 7.3
7 56,871 4,208 7.4 7.0 7.3
8 56,795 4,092 7.2 7.0 7.3
9 56,831 4,241 7.5 7.0 7.3
10 56,190 4,312 7.7 7.0 7.3
11 53,940 4,275 7.9 6.9 7.3
12 53,924 4,890 9.1 6.9 7.2
13 57,299 7,397 12.9 6.8 7.1
14 63,955 12,978 20.3 6.7 7.1
15 65,676 16,272 24.8 6.7 7.0
16 52,642 12,434 23.6 6.6 6.9
17 24,387 3,553 14.6 6.5 6.8

Comments 1 - 13 of 13        Search these comments

2   Patrick   2020 May 2, 11:03pm  

I think the policy of herd immunity is the right policy. I think Britain was on exactly the right track before they were fed wrong numbers. And they made a huge mistake. I see the standout winners as Germany and Sweden. They didn’t practise too much lockdown and they got enough people sick to get some herd immunity. I see the standout losers as countries like Austria, Australia and Israel that had very strict lockdown but didn’t have many cases. They have damaged their economies, caused massive social damage, damaged the educational year of their children, but not obtained any herd immunity.

“There is no doubt in my mind, that when we come to look back on this, the damage done by lockdown will exceed any saving of lives by a huge factor.
- Professor Michael Levitt
3   HeadSet   2020 May 3, 6:20am  

I see the standout winners as Germany and Sweden.

And maybe California. It appears "herd immunity" occurred in CA in the months that Covid-19 was present and spreading in CA, but not yet identified so no lock down. Antibody testing may bear this out.
4   mell   2020 May 3, 9:03am  

Blue says
https://unherd.com/thepost/nobel-prize-winning-scientist-the-covid-19-epidemic-was-never-exponential/


Thats what I said all the time! Even without a nobel prize. It was a very steep linear curve that had short exponential episodes but never reached real sustained exponential growth. You just look at the math, it just is. No spin
5   Ceffer   2020 May 3, 11:03am  

Unfortunately, I would count Johns Hopkins (Bloomberg donations), CDC as well as WHO all captive to the agenda, until proven otherwise. The only reasonably objective information and analysis seems to be coming out of Stanford at university level, as well as analysis in some of the European countries post ipso facto.

I think a lot of academic types are staying silent because they have learned that bucking the dragons of political trends only hurts them.
6   Patrick   2020 May 3, 11:36am  

Ceffer says
I think a lot of academic types are staying silent because they have learned that bucking the dragons of political trends only hurts them.


That's true of most academics, but there still are some with integrity and guts:

https://heterodoxacademy.org/the-problem/

Our commitment to heterodoxy within the academy has taken shape as a response to the rise of orthodoxy within scholarly culture — when people fear shame, ostracism, or any other form of social or professional retaliation for questioning or challenging a commonly held idea. We believe that the best way to prevent orthodoxy from taking root within the academy is by fostering three key principles: open inquiry, viewpoint diversity, and constructive disagreement.
7   Shaman   2020 May 11, 10:22am  

Pussy.
Scared of a little virus that almost everyone survives.
How do you keep your flaccid vagina from dripping all over your girl shoes?
8   rdm   2020 May 11, 1:25pm  

Patrick says
I see the standout winners as Germany and Sweden.


I understand that Germany doesn't report deaths in nursing homes as Covid-19, regardless of the cause. So their death numbers are not directly comparable. The Krauts have always had a certain view toward, shall we say, so called non productive people. All data is suspect. it is in the self-interests of all governments to minimize the death rate, not exaggerate it.

Swedish death rate is quite high compared to neighboring countries, it remains to be seen if they have the correct approach. They also have a much more inclusive health care system than US. Apparently their economy is not faring better than other similar Eurozone counties due to the fact it's export driven and I guess nobody is buying Volvos. I hear they are having second thoughts as to their approach.
9   mell   2020 May 11, 3:32pm  

rdm says
Patrick says
I see the standout winners as Germany and Sweden.


I understand that Germany doesn't report deaths in nursing homes as Covid-19, regardless of the cause. So their death numbers are not directly comparable. The Krauts have always had a certain view toward, shall we say, so called non productive people. All data is suspect. it is in the self-interests of all governments to minimize the death rate, not exaggerate it.

Swedish death rate is quite high compared to neighboring countries, it remains to be seen if they have the correct approach. They also have a much more inclusive health care system than US. Apparently their economy is not faring better than other similar Eurozone counties due to the fact it's export driven and I guess nobody is buying Volvos. I hear they are having second thoughts as to their approach.


Most of this is false. Germany has a different approach to generally non-deadly infectious diseases, similarly you won't find much about measles or other childhood disease outbreaks in the news as you would find in the US media. Also Germany has a very good healthcare system, probably one of the best. Lastly the infection rate in Sweden is roughly comparable to that of the US - without any lockdowns! And the death rate is also comparable considering the average age to be higher than in the US. There's nothing to see here except for the relatively low impact of the lockdowns on infection and death rates.
10   rdm   2020 May 11, 3:53pm  

mell says
Most of this is false.


So what is false? If there are wrong statements I have no problem in acknowledging/changing them, give me proof. No examples are given but the post goes off in another direction
apparently because the statements that were made don't match the party line.

The comparison was made of the US to Sweden, I compare Sweden to other similar counties in Europe that are having lockdowns. I don't know but pretty sure my comparisons are much more relevant. Don't we want to test the Swedish system of remaining mostly open against similar countries that have lockdowns? To have as much be equal as possible? The US has a drastically different and inferior health care delivery system compared Sweden, neighboring countries are similar thus the more to the point, and their standard of livings are similar. Its a nanny state.
11   WookieMan   2020 May 11, 4:07pm  

rdm says
The US has a drastically different and inferior health care delivery system compared Sweden, neighboring countries are similar thus the more to the point, and their standard of livings are similar. Its a nanny state.

It's not about medical care or standards for the most part. It's about density and demographics. 0.001% of my county has died from this in semi rural IL. Can anyone explain why my county is shut down logically? We lose more than 2 a month to auto accidents across the county.

I think three bays posted a graphic in another thread that clearly shows density matters when showing neighboring countries to Sweden. Look at where the deaths are occurring everywhere. Your housing and age matter with this virus. It's abundantly clear now and was about 2 months ago as it started spreading. And don't show me an entire countries population density without pointing out where the main deaths are occurring.
12   Ceffer   2020 May 11, 4:10pm  

WookieMan says
Can anyone explain why my county is shut down logically? We lose more than 2 a month to auto accidents across the county.


Because the State needs to crush you IRREVOCABLY! From this day forward, nothing will be the same, potentially diseased peasant.

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