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A back of the envelope calculation of COVID-19 NYC fatality rates


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2020 Apr 30, 8:03am   1,397 views  24 comments

by Al_Sharpton_for_President   ➕follow (5)   💰tip   ignore  

NYC puts out some nice data on COVID-19 fatality rates by age AND comorbidity. I urge everyone to give it a gander. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

You can see that it is mostly older folks with comorbidities dying.

Using the recent NYC serum antibody data as a likely understated basis for determining total people infected, and the age demographic NYC data, I calculated the fatality rate for age group. I used total deaths, although by a very large precent, most deaths were in folks with comorbidities. Suprisingly, even in the 75 and up age group, fatalities without a comorbidity were very, very low.

I had to use averaging for the 18-44 age group, as the serum antibody data further breaks up these age categories more finely than does the fatality data, but here you go:

Fatality rates for those with and without comorbidities

18-44 - 0.07%
45-64 - 0.82%
65-74 - 3.4%
75+ - 7.7%

Fatality rates for those without known comorbidities (which also includes prediabetic, and folks on their way to having comorbidities)

18-44 - 0.006%
45-64 - 0.03%
65-74 - 0.05%
75+ - 0.06%

Who should be locked down?

Fauci is asshole!

Comments 1 - 24 of 24        Search these comments

1   Patrick   2020 Apr 30, 8:11am  

Thanks, we need more people to do independent research and calculations.

The press is utterly failing us, being simply a propaganda mouthpiece these days.
2   WookieMan   2020 Apr 30, 8:17am  

willywonka says
Who should be locked down?

It's bad. We have the data on who this kills. Protect them and open back up. Trip #2 cancelled because of this bull shit. I'm convinced of another motive at this point. 100%. Just don't know what it is.
3   Ceffer   2020 Apr 30, 8:24am  

They die of generalized fuck-uppedness with a coincidental positive (likely false positive or physician money-grabbing positive) Coronavirus test.

This is science in action.
4   Patrick   2020 Apr 30, 8:37am  

WookieMan says
I'm convinced of another motive at this point.


It sure seems that way.

The motive must be a desire to destroy the economy as a way to gain more power and wealth, and perhaps a misguided attempt to get more Democratic votes.

Clearly state governments have seized unconstitutional levels of power with zero scientific justification. Closing beaches? WTF for? There is ZERO chance of infection at the beach with its wind and sun.

And the rich effectively get richer when the half of the country that depends on small businesses gets bankrupted and impoverished. The relative position of those who still have assets shoots way up. They will own a much larger fraction of everything, and the newly impoverished become their servants.
5   Al_Sharpton_for_President   2020 Apr 30, 8:39am  

WookieMan says
I'm convinced of another motive at this point. 100%. Just don't know what it is.
China hates Trump. Dems hate Trump. MSM hates Trump. Industries that pump up profits by outsourcing to China don't like Trump. Folks on China's payroll don't like Trump. Not suggesting a conspiracy, just groups using the opportunity to discredit and get rid of him.

Remember, it's all about the economy. While a lot of us care about issues, most people vote their pocketbook when it comes down to it. And they don't care if Trump is blameless or not. Watch Biden seize on the rebuilding the economy issue soon. Just have to let it burn a little more.
6   Patrick   2020 Apr 30, 9:13am  

https://spectator.us/joe-bidens-america-loves-lockdown/

... the speed and conviction with which progressive professionals have called for harsh restrictions, and their vehemence in trying to shut up skeptics and dissenters, speaks louder than the world of Bush’s second inaugural. Power, security, and conformity — moral reassurance through the obliteration of dissent — is what they desire, and we see it as clearly now as we did in the weeks after 9/11.

Non-elite Americans are not expected to exercise any liberty here: to question authority or offer their own thoughts (thought crimes as far as Facebook is concerned); to assemble to petition their masters; to freely exercise their religion. Though the elite may say such rights are universal, for the sake of slapping a moral veneer on war, when these rights are put to the test under stressful conditions at home, Americans are supposed to surrender them without debate. If you really believe that Americans are or ought to be so obedient, you can’t also believe that freedom is a universal human desire. Not unless ‘freedom’ only means ‘doing exactly what people like me want you to do.’

For now, America is still enough of a federal republic that voters in different regions, where different classes and cultures predominate, still get a decisive say on the presidential election. At stake in the Trump vs. Biden contest is the question of whether the fearful, censorious, illiberal elite will consolidate power by claiming the White House, or whether it will be impeded and rebuked by the re-election of Donald Trump. COVID-19 has not tipped the election decisively toward Biden, as anti-Trump pundits had predicted. What it has done is make all the more stark the difference between the class that gave us globalism and that would now squelch any dissent from the lockdown, and the rest of the country that puts jobs, faith, and freedom above the demands of the elite consensus.
7   Shaman   2020 Apr 30, 9:31am  

I got word that Newsome has notified California police departments to close ALL beaches May 1st. That’s tomorrow, folks, the same day as a bunch of planned lockdown protests are scheduled for noon at various beaches across the state.
First Ammendment freedom of assembly?
Out the fucking window according to Newsome.

https://www.lamag.com/citythinkblog/reopen-protests-california/
8   mell   2020 Apr 30, 9:33am  

This is completely bullshit and I am tired of these conspiracy / hoax associations - we all are taking a severe flu seriously and this as well, as mature adults. I wear a mask in public settings inside and we try to do our best wrt distancing. This is fcked up, Newsom fcked up. The risk of transmission outside is extremely low as compared to inside so this makes zero sense.
9   FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden   2020 Apr 30, 9:45am  

There’s money and politics involved in fucking America over this much.
10   WookieMan   2020 Apr 30, 10:00am  

mell says
This is fcked up, Newsom fcked up. The risk of transmission outside is extremely low as compared to inside so this makes zero sense.

More benefits to being outside then in. But whatever. Something 97% of scientist can actually agree on is being banned. Oh how the times have changed in 45 days.
11   Ceffer   2020 Apr 30, 10:07am  

Some of the stuff Newsom says has been verging on the bizarre (like doctor should be able to write prescriptions for the homeless to get shelter). He didn't seem quite so out of it in the past. He has a history of drug abuse and alcoholism, wonder if he started hitting the snoot again.

He's the darling of the Getty's, so he is protected no matter what he does, but doesn't seem clued in to the fact that he is in a government on fire from pending funding disaster. The crumbling facades are gonna fall with a loud thud if he doesn't get the state economy back on track, screw the Globalist drek.
12   socal2   2020 Apr 30, 10:29am  

Shaman says
I got word that Newsome has notified California police departments to close ALL beaches May 1st. That’s tomorrow, folks, the same day as a bunch of planned lockdown protests are scheduled for noon at various beaches across the state.
First Ammendment freedom of assembly?
Out the fucking window according to Newsome.

https://www.lamag.com/citythinkblog/reopen-protests-california/


The San Diego Mayor and County Supervisors wrote letters yesterday telling Gavin to back off.

Will be interested in seeing what he says at noon today.

Gavin and the house arrest fanatics would be able to buy more time and keep the natives on the reservation extending the shutdown through May if they allow a little wiggle room for outdoor activity in our parks and beaches.

But these retarded authoritarians seem to be drunk on power.
13   Shaman   2020 Apr 30, 11:28am  

Some more significant figures from the data in OP.
Age percentage with comorbidities
45-64. 85%
65-74. 75%
75+. 70%

As expected, the percentage of deaths involving co-morbidities is higher among younger populations, indicating that this is the reason they didn’t survive.
15   MisdemeanorRebel   2020 Apr 30, 11:34am  

In other words, the fatality rate of COVID19 is less than the murder rate of Chicago or DC. By far.

We should lockdown those two cities permanently under the murder rate goes down.
16   Al_Sharpton_for_President   2020 Apr 30, 11:51am  

ThreeBays says
willywonka says
Who should be locked down?


If the goal is herd immunity, then the vulnerable should be locked down.

But this hasn't been the goal - the goal is suppression and containment.
The goal is illogical. You want folks who won't die to have immunity. You want folks who are at high risk of dying to be locked down. You are killing the future elderly by preventing them from developing immunity to the virus when they have an effective immune system to do so.
17   MisdemeanorRebel   2020 Apr 30, 11:54am  

The projection was 1M+ deaths in the USA and to hold the line so hospitals wouldn't be overwhelmed. Condition #1 never happened and definitely won't at this point. Condition #2 clearly isn't met - half of Cali hospital beds are empty.

Those were the conditions justifying a lockdown.

Time to open up.

The Enemedia and Democrats (but I repeat myself) are shifting the goal posts.
18   mell   2020 Apr 30, 11:58am  

We have over 2700 beds in SF county - just over 80 are hospitalized with CV-19. Ya think we could take in a few additional patients for their check-ups, tests, and surgeries?!
20   MisdemeanorRebel   2020 Apr 30, 12:45pm  

ThreeBays says
We don't know yet if long term immunity can be developed for covid-19. We don't have immunity for all the common cold coronaviruses and yearly influenza.


Of course not, viruses mutate. But they're never as deadly as they are in the initial outbreak.

Are you suggesting we shutdown the country until we make common viruses - and COVID19 is in a Virus family known for a long time - disappear?
21   Onvacation   2020 Apr 30, 12:52pm  

ThreeBays says

If the goal is herd immunity, then the vulnerable should be locked down.

But this hasn't been the goal - the goal is suppression and containment.

No. We were told that we would flatten the curve to save the hospitals and then get back to work.

You can't suppress or contain Covid-19. It's too late; it's already out there.

A virus that causes bad symptoms in a minority and kills a super minority that were already at risk is NOT a national emergency that requires the unprecedented step of shutting down commerce, infringing our rights, and putting us under house arrest.
22   zzyzzx   2020 Apr 30, 1:06pm  

Consider the government to be like HR.

HR really doesn't care about the employees... they just A) don't want to get sued, B) are always looking out for the corporation and C) try to spend as least as possible for higher profits.
23   MisdemeanorRebel   2020 Apr 30, 2:16pm  

ThreeBays says
Not true, look at South Korea. They suppressed it to nearly 0 and that's in dense cities.


How many illegals and immigrants does South Korea have?

Why is the US so much lower than Europe, even with Germany discounting those with chronic conditions as dying of Corona?

Keeping in Mind the total deaths in Western Europe alone is about double the US Death toll?

Also, do you think less than 5000 people died in all of China? Less than the city of Madrid, Spain?

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