patrick.net

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But they don't know how accurate their antibodies test is.

2 to 8 times as deadly as the flu? this is still a very deadly virus

CBOEtrader says

2 to 8 times as deadly as the flu? this is still a very deadly virus

They'll be able to get those numbers down once they develop proper treatments and protocols beyond what they are doing now. What I have to say is that the sheer transmission speed that this thing passes is ridiculous. Kinda makes that whole statement of "no evidence of human to human" transmission put out in mid January make them look like the biggest assholes on planet earth.

CBOEtrader says

2 to 8 times as deadly as the flu? this is still a very deadly virus

No, using the NY state data, around three times.

2017-2018 flu: 79,400 deaths/48.8 million infected = .163%. (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018/archive.htm)

NY state: 20,861 deaths/4.23 million infected (21.1% x 20.06 million) = .493%

.493/.163 = 3.02 times as fatal. Less if you use the Santa Clara, CA antibody data.

COVID-19 fatalities 65 and older: 78.9%. Flu fatalities 65 and older: 65%

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Certainly not worth shutting down the economy over. Nor taking steps to prevent the development of immunity.

CBOEtrader says

2 to 8 times as deadly as the flu? this is still a very deadly virus

The "2 - 8 times" is not real, but likey due to:

1. People dying of any reason while testing positive for any type of CV nowadays is being classified as CV deaths

2. Flu death rate varies dramatically from year to year, due to break-throughs in virus mutations every decade or so. The 1918-1919 Flu killed 50-70million people, in a world of 1.8 billion people, so even if every single person in the world was infected, the death rate was still 0.3-0.4%. Obviously, not every single person in the world was infected; given the technology at the time, the infection rate may well be less than 30% of the world population, so the death rate would translate to 1-1.2% in that particular flu episode.

BTW, the medical term "Flu" only came into being after the 1918-1919 Asprin Flu (the extremely high death rate and extremely unusual pattern of the young and healthy dying more than the older or young was due to Doctors and Pharmacists handing out Asprin like candies, after the German firm Bayer just lost their patent right over Asprin in most of the world due to WWI), in order to distinguish particular severe Cold from Common Cold (the term "Common Cold" also didn't exist before "Flu" became a medical term). Before then, everything giving you the coughs etc. was called the Cold. Corona-virus infection is usually called the Cold, accounting for about 20-30% of Common Cold; some more severe cases get written up as Flu even when Flu virus tests show negative results.

At some point, this Covid-19 thing may well be called the Ventilator-Flu (as it is the leading cause/pre-cursor of deaths), the Lock-down-Flu (another major contributing factor), or the Bureaucracy-Flu, as government bureaucrats all over the world have contributed mightily to the deadliness of the outbreak.

Combined with those that tested positive that's about 34% rate of folks already out of the soup.

ThreeBays says

Total mortality indicates over 30% of COVID-19 deaths aren't yet counted.

You gotta hold on for all those millions that got a sneeze, never got tested, went back to work or watching Netflix.

It's still the case that most of the people being tested are also the worst cases, requiring hospitalization.

ALL, repeat ALL new strains and outbreaks look bad with high death rates. Then, after about a year, they go back and realize it was far less severe than anticipated.

ThreeBays says

People dying of any reason while testing positive for any type of CV nowadays is being classified as CV deaths

Repeating lies.

Total mortality indicates over 30% of COVID-19 deaths aren't yet counted.

You are the one lying. CDC is literally publishing new death certification guidelines to have much lower standards for attributing deaths to Covid-19.

Bear in mind some NYC hospitals were resource constrained (ICU beds), so that may have lead to additional deaths. I don't know how that could have been prevented...
Mayor de Blasio took a short, rare subway ride to demonstrate to New Yorkers the coronavirus shouldn’t alter their habits.
"I’m here on the subway to say to people nothing to fear, go about your lives and we will tell you if you have to change your habits but that's not now,” Hizzoner said on a packed C train he caught at the Fulton St. stop Downtown.
“We have the best public health professionals protecting us,” he added. “All over the city there are doctors, nurses and disease detectives trying to keep everyone safe and so far we have had really good results.
The trip, which lasted just one stop, came at the end of a day that saw two more coronavirus cases confirmed in the city, bringing the total in the Big Apple to four.

Germany is doing it right by not counting those who died of pre-existing conditions.

We should not count as COVID19:

Nobody with more than 2 Chronic Conditions.

Really nobody over 70 with any Chronic Conditions (Heart Disease, Diabetes, COPD, etc.)

Certainly not cancer patients or HIV positive individuals, either

Apparently, they have gone so far as to count murder victims and automobile accident victims as Covid-19 deaths.

ThreeBays says

Boom. The first test on a population with enough infections to be statistically relevant. Fake investor shill Santa Clara study busted.

0.6% fatality rate using official death figures.
0.8% fatality rate when counting missing deaths (excess deaths over seasonal mortality)

Once again the Leftist Big-government Slavery Worshiping Idiocrats are misunderstanding what the numbers mean. Human immune systems first produce short-term antibody proteins, then after a few weeks produce long-term antibody proteins (and short-term antibody proteins are re-absorbed). The anti-body tests test for long-term antibody proteins. The having-exposed population is much much larger than the long-term antibody positive results show, if as you said the infected population is doubling every week or two. The long-term antibody protein is several weeks behind the fore-front of infection.

ThreeBays says

This is an antibody test so it picks up people who already had the virus and recovered. It's going to capture people who got a sneeze, never tested, and got better.

Are they going door to door, or asking for volunteers?

The VA hospital study was grossly disproportionate in poorer, older, blacker minorities, than the general population, for example

ThreeBays says

Reality says

You are the one lying. CDC is literally publishing new death certification guidelines to have much more lower standards for attributing deaths to Covid-19.

We're talking about total filed death certificates. It has ZERO to do with how CDC is classifying anything - unless we're talking about how they certify someone as being dead or alive.

CDC publishes guidelines on who gets to certify causes of death, and how. As of April 3rd, 2020, CDC has published new guidelines on who get to certify death due to Covid-19 on death certificate and what qualifies. Both the who and how are much lower standards than what is normal for other causes of deaths. In other words, it was a deliberate attempt to hide the fact that the daily death count was already over the hump: by expanding the definition of Covid-19 deaths.

ThreeBays says

Reality says

The anti-body tests test for long-term antibody proteins. The having exposed population is much much larger than the long-term antibody positive results show, if as you said the infected population is doubling every week or two.

The human body also takes time to die.

The daily death numbers are already declining. The daily spread numbers (which is actually different from "officially confirmed" number) however would not decline until running into a wall of already-immune. Now you see why highly infectious diseases stop very quickly after they go over the hump. The most vulnerable are already dead, and the survivors acquire immunity at almost exponential speed.

Do you have any evidence to show this is only looking for only long-term antibody proteins? Most of the covid-19 tests look for both short and long term proteins.

Good grief, you don't understand the difference between protein vs. RNA fragments, and make up lies as you go. Covid-19 tests don't look for protein at all; they test for the presence of antigen (not antibody) RNA fragments through rapid replication (i.e. they are qualitative tests, not quantitative tests). The anti-body tests test for long-term antibody protein because short-term antibody proteins disappear in the person after a few weeks.

Long Island fatality rate using the antibody data

7.56 million population x 16.7% antibody positivity = 1.26 million.

COVID-19 fatalities = 1471 + 959 = 2,430 (https://www.newsday.com/news/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-live-updates-long-island-1.43149650)

Long Island COVID-19 fatality rate = 2,430/1.26 million = 0.19.

US flu fatality rate 2017-2018: 79,400 deaths/48.8 million infected = 0.163

For Long Island. COVID-19 is 0.19/0.163, or 1.16 as deadly as the flu.

Why the fuck are we shutting down the economy?

ThreeBays says

0.6% fatality rate using official death figures.

For NYC, meaningless unless you compare to flu mortality rate. Try running the NYC numbers for the 2017-2018 season.

ThreeBays says

Reality says

The death numbers are already declining. The spread numbers however would not decline until running into a wall of already-immune. Now you see why highly infectious diseases stop very quickly after they go over the hump. The most vulnerable are already dead.

Pure speculation, and we know your batting is about nil.

Not sure which part you are calling pure speculation. CDC already had to expand the definition (relaxing certification standards) of Covid-19 deaths on April 3rd, 2020, in order to pretend that daily death number hadn't peaked already. The spread number (the actual daily new exposure number, which is very different from the daily "official confirmed new infection number") hits a wall when virus runs into a wall of already-immune (i.e. herd immunity); that's just basic immunology/epidemiology.

ThreeBays says

Who said RNA fragments?

You just said antibody proteins - and I said antibody proteins. Tired of your trolling.

You are the one who is trolling by quoting sources that have near-zero knowledge in immunology then adding your own lies on top of those politically driven nonsense.

"Covid-19 tests" refer to the RNA fragment tests for finding antigen. They do not test for protein at all.

Antibody tests OTOH test for the long-term antibody protein.

So only old fat sickly people (90% of deaths & many are minorities) die from this so far. Whats the problem? Obama care goal was to eliminate these high costs drag on the medical and medicare system anyway. Remember the 'death squads? Blessing in disguise?

Reality says

You are the one who is trolling by quoting source that have near-zero knowledge in immunology then adding your own lies.

This is his job description. No point in trying to argue with an apparatchik disinformation bot.

ThreeBays says

Most of the covid-19 tests look for both short and long term proteins.

Here is what you said in post #18:

"Most of the covid-19 tests look for both short and long term proteins."

That is a complete utter lie. Covid-19 tests don't look for protein at all, but look for RNA fragments. Writing such a nonsense sentence goes to show that you are completely ignorant regarding:

antigen vs. antibody

protein vs. RNA

In other words, you don't know much of anything about immunology or epidemiology . . . or even basic middle-school biology in the latter case. Yet you make up lies as you go.

Reality says

hat is a complete utter lie. Covid-19 tests don't look for protein at all, but look for RNA fragments.

Yes, and if one mounts a successful immune response and clears out the virus, the infected person will show up as negative using tests that rely on the presence of viral nucleic acid, meaning viral nucleic acid based tests are likely vastly underreporting the true rate of infection, and thereby inflating the fatality rate.

Reality says

Covid-19 tests don't look for protein at all, but look for RNA fragments. Writing such a nonsense sentence goes to show that you are completely ignorant regarding:

antigen vs. antibody

protein vs. RNA

In other words, you don't know much of anything about immunology or epidemiology . . . or even basic middle-school biology in the latter case. Yet you make up lies as you go.

thanks, finally someone with knowledge of immunology! appreciate your explanation

ThreeBays says

Can you point me to where you got the deaths and infection numbers? Cheers.

Sure. It's a moving number, but for COVID-19 fatalities: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

The population of New York State is easily accessible. Keep in mind that NYC is comparatively densely populated, and so the number of infected people per capita may not be representative of less densely populated regions. Also, tests using viral nucleic acid will undercount infected folks who developed an immune response to the virus and cleared it out, and along with it, the viral nucleic acid. But antibody tests will pick this up.

ThreeBays says

0.6% fatality rate using official death figures.
over 0.9% fatality rate when counting missing deaths (excess deaths over seasonal mortality). Just like the doomsday models.

.9% is doomsday? For a virus that kills mostly old sick people that will likely die soon anyways?

You and I have very different definitions of doomsday.

ThreeBays says

Your population count isn't right here.

Yes, correct. Does not include Queens and Brooklyn. Queens fatalities: 4057, Brooklyn fatalities: 4148.

Recalculated fatality rate for Long Island:

7.56 million population x 16.7% antibody positivity = 1.26 million.

COVID-19 fatalities = 1471 + 959 + 4057 + 4148 = 10,635 (https://projects.thecity.nyc/2020_03_covid-19-tracker/)

Long Island COVID-19 fatality rate = 10,635/1.26 million = 0.84.

It would be interesting to compare the Long Island and NYC COVID-19 fatality rates to the respective 2017-2018 flu fatality rates.

marcus says

But they don't know how accurate their antibodies test is.

It's got to be as good as the testS they use to test if you have it. I think any company can make a test for a made up virus.
They can't prove all of those cancer victims had it, and we can't prove they didn't.
Doctors are capable of climbing up a flag pole and taking down a man's flag, out of spite. Is capable of embellishing deaths. Even the folks working in the hospitals, if the head nurse speaks up and says leave this one alone. She could tell right away, he was Covid prone. And then the bone collectors come and carry them away. Has any Doctor or Nurse in any hospital said.. Woah! Wait I want a sample of his/her blood, I wanna check that out.

ThreeBays says

This virus kills mostly in the aged with a 2:1 ratio of men to women. This virus kills the Trump voter demographic bigly.

AIDS, Abortion, Syphilis, Diabetes, Drug Addiction, Alcoholism and violent gun crime kills the Democrat voter demographic MOAR bigly.

Abortion alone keeps the Progs in check. Darwin in action.

ThreeBays says

This virus kills mostly in the aged with a 2:1 ratio of men to women. This virus kills the Trump voter demographic bigly.

Which may well explain why Governor Cuomo insisted on sending Covid-positive patients back into nursing homes! Essentially committing homicide against the other residents at the facilities. This policy is likely a major contributor to the unusually high fatality rate in NY.

My speculation about ICU beds leading to a higher fatality rate may be correct. According to this article:
Epidemic-related hospital use peaked in New York state on April 8, according to data from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). At that point, the IHME says, the number of available ICU beds fell about 5,500 short of what was needed.

socal2 says

Abortion alone keeps the Progs in check. Darwin in action.

When you know you aren’t the fittest and that crackhead who knocked you up is even worse...

ThreeBays says

Doubtful data. IHME shortfall is based on non surge capacity.

That is fair enough. I had second thoughts after posting.
Its pretty clear, though, from reading first person accounts from ICU and ER doctors, that patients were dying before being able to get proper care in New York City.
We still just don’t have the staffing or the space for everyone. We had a 12-bed ICU, we opened up a second 12-bed ICU, and yet we still have 15 to 20 patients in the hospital that we need to find a place for. It’s overwhelming because the list just goes on and on and on. We realize we’re not going to get to all of these patients in the right way. And then there are new patients coming in that we have to evaluate. Even if people die, the list does not get shorter. It’s an ongoing process, and it makes us feel horrible. It makes us feel helpless. Historically, for the most part, we can always get somebody an ICU bed in a reasonable time frame. Now people are waiting much longer.
Cosmological Physics wonks at Berkeley claim:
Extrapolating from the Italian data, University of California, Berkeley, and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory data scientists estimate that the fatality rate in New York City and Santa Clara County in California can be no less than 0.5%, or one of every 200 people infected...
Seljak says that getting COVID-19 doubles your chance of dying this year.

ThreeBays says

Reality says

The anti-body tests test for long-term antibody proteins. The having exposed population is much much larger than the long-term antibody positive results show, if as you said the infected population is doubling every week or two.

The human body also takes time to die from covid-19.

Do you have any evidence to show this is only looking for long-term antibody proteins? Most of the covid-19 tests look for both short and long term proteins.

Oh no, here's the new logic from the doomers. --- The human body takes time to die from Covid-19

Therefore, since everyone is going to die at some point, and if you had Covid-19 at some point then the death certificate should label it as a Covid-19 death whenever the death occurs. Therefore, Covid-19 at present has a 15% death rate.

I am just making fun of all the extra Covid-19 deaths that have erroneously been added to the rolls from people trying to inflate the numbers.

ThreeBays says

Can you name any wars or disasters that killed 2 million Americans?

This is a poor comparison. I forgot who posted it in another thread, but if you're taking it by life remaining without Covid, all we've likely done is accelerate the death of people that may have not lasted another year. While unfortunate, the reaction simply does not fit the risk of this virus. Once this is graphed out this will look like a quick peek in deaths and will be a tiny blip on the historical graph come 2050.

We're going to look back on this as the biggest waste of time and money maybe in our country's history. I'm not sure if you've been going out, but I'd guess based off of UE numbers, 50% of currently employed are considered essential. These people are going to gas stations, grocery stores, drive through windows, parks, etc. People are definitely sitting at home, but we're not locked down remotely like people think we are.

As each day goes by we keep learning new things. Like this was here before the Washington State guy. It could have been December and likely has been spreading for a while. While it may spread like a pandemic, it clearly is not remotely as dangerous as thought. Which puts into question all data and reaction to this point.