« prev   random   next »

1
0

COVID-19 in Sweden

By ThreeBays follow ThreeBays   2020 Apr 21, 10:43pm 515 views   15 comments   watch   nsfw   quote   share    


Unlike most countries, Sweden has taken a very liberal approach to flattening it's coronavirus curve. Rather than shuttering schools and non-essential businesses, Sweden stands alone, instead opting to only give guidance to citizens to be careful: keep distance from people who are ill, isolate if you have symptoms, wash hands, etc. More recently as of April 1st Sweden tightened it's guidelines further with restrictions on gatherings, and is drawing up new legislation to allow it to take “extraordinary steps”.



Sweden doesn't report all deaths on weekends and holidays. This often makes it look like the curve may be flattening, often prompting some outlets to declare that they've reached a top, when in fact the numbers keep increasing every week.

What we can tell is that Sweden's measures slowed down the rate of spread considerably, but not to a level that would halt the exponential spread. Under it's first guidelines, the "doubling rate" in Sweden was around 10 days. After tighter guidelines on April 1st, the "doubling rate" improved to around 14 days.

14 days is a very large improvement over the baseline of rate 3 days we have seen almost everywhere. To illustrate, the unmitigated disease has around a 1000x increase in cases in 1 month. Sweden's spread is only around 4x increase in the same period.
1   FuckTheMainstreamMedia   ignore (7)   2020 Apr 21, 11:11pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Curious that you chose not to go with daily new cases which is more reliable and more current (death lags).

Basically as disingenuous as I acuse the msm of being, esp considering nearly every chart posted here has been daily new cases.
2   ThreeBays   ignore (4)   2020 Apr 21, 11:51pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

FuckTheMainstreamMedia says
Curious that you chose not to go with daily new cases which is more reliable and more current (death lags).


No particular reason. The daily doubling figures I included are based on the new cases. Thanks for putting up the chart.

Btw cases are not more reliable since they depend on how testing is done. They can go up and down based on changes in the supply of tests.
3   Al_Sharpton_for_President   ignore (6)   2020 Apr 22, 5:26am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Nonsensical analysis. The virus is supposed to spread so that folks can develop herd immunity. We know that deaths in Sweden are primarily amongst the sick, elderly population. The virus is not going away, Shall we all shelter in place forever?
5   Al_Sharpton_for_President   ignore (6)   2020 Apr 22, 7:19am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Nonsense. COVID-19 primarily affects the sick elderly population. Protecting this population, but not by shutting down the entire economy, is sensible. Unlike with the flu, immunity to which was developed at an earlier age when a functional immune system existed in this population, as with everything else, the immune system turns to crap with age, and so a novel pathogen wreaks havoc in the elderly population. Subtract out these fatalities, and COVID-19 is as deadly as the flu, and even less so for children.

COVID-19 will always be with us. We cannot shut down the economy forever. We do not do this with the flu, which killed 80,000 primarily elderly Americans in 2017.
6   WookieMan   ignore (7)   2020 Apr 22, 7:21am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Thanks for the link.

elliemae says
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/swedish-coronavirus-no-lockdown-model-proves-lethal-by-hans-bergstrom-2020-04

Doesn't seem like such a good idea so far...

But it still doesn't negate this part of the article:

Now that COVID-19 is running rampant through nursing homes and other communities, the Swedish government has had to backpedal. Others who may be tempted by the “Swedish model” should understand that a defining feature of it is a higher death toll.

I don't like death. I may come across as an ass here from time to time. But this situation is known. We can try our best to prevent sickness to those most at risk, but our current model is devastating in other realms of life. Not just economically. It's nature, I'm not sure why humans think we can control it.
7   WookieMan   ignore (7)   2020 Apr 22, 7:23am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

willywonka says
We do not do this with the flu, which killed 80,000 primarily elderly Americans in 2017.

Many of whom were vaccinated.... This is a manufactured crisis at this point and I'm still trying to figure out the reason why.
8   Rb6d   ignore (0)   2020 Apr 22, 7:26am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

WookieMan says
Many of whom were vaccinated.... This is a manufactured crisis at this point and I'm still trying to figure out the reason why.

Follow the money. Large, incompetent companies were bailed out.
9   Al_Sharpton_for_President   ignore (6)   2020 Apr 22, 7:26am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

WookieMan says
Many of whom were vaccinated.... This is a manufactured crisis at this point and I'm still trying to figure out the reason why.
Yes, the flu vaccine is not very effective in the elderly, unfortunately. Pushing on a string.
10   WookieMan   ignore (7)   2020 Apr 22, 7:39am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

rd6B says
Follow the money. Large, incompetent companies were bailed out.

For sure they were bailed out. I'm still convinced this is bigger/higher than that though. The numbers don't add up. The reaction doesn't compute with the virus and what it's doing. This really is indisputable at this point. We're halfway to a deadly flu season without a vaccine. So what? Mathematically we have more unhealthy people that would die from these types of things. Who cares? It's a new virus, but it's 24/7 on the news. Commercials are now all Covid-19. It's fucked up.
11   rdm   ignore (3)   2020 Apr 22, 10:03am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

It seems as if this will need to be judged over the entire course of the the virus, months/years, pre-vaccine. Whether this method of dealing with the pandemic was the right or wrong decision remains to be seen. There are lots of factors that will need to be considered, not the least universal healthcare and a nanny state. So there may not be direct comparisons to many other countries. None the less "the Swedish method" may be of great value in determining the best way to cope with other future pandemics.
12   WookieMan   ignore (7)   2020 Apr 22, 10:55am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

rdm says
It seems as if this will need to be judged over the entire course of the the virus, months/years, pre-vaccine.

This will most certainly happen and you are correct. But (pun intended) the reaction almost certainly has been batshit crazy. The half dead people that avoid this round are getting it the next round and dying. And then they'll get vaccinated and more half dead people will die because flu style vaccines aren't that effective. We have a new flu strain now. We slowed the initial onslaught that "may" have overwhelmed hospitals. We know we can handle it. Time to get over the media hyped fear of something we cannot control.
13   EBGuy   ignore (1)   2020 Apr 22, 11:18am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

WookieMan says
We have a new flu strain now.

To be clear, we have a new "cold" (SARS) strain. This is a long game, for sure...
14   WookieMan   ignore (7)   2020 Apr 22, 11:29am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

EBGuy says
To be clear, we have a new "cold" (SARS) strain

Correct. I have been brainwashed by Trump to call it the flu. I'm his little puppet. Even though I think he's getting shit advice and maybe harmful advice on purpose and has kind of botched this in my opinion.

It is really hard to not compare it to the flu though. We've had less deaths than a bad flu year without a vaccine. What is the big deal? We've likely had less flu deaths now because of this as well. I still struggle to wrap my head around WTF is going on right now. Nothing adds up.
15   EBGuy   ignore (1)   2020 Apr 22, 11:55am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

WookieMan says
It is really hard to not compare it to the flu though. We've had less deaths than a bad flu year without a vaccine. What is the big deal? We've likely had less flu deaths now because of this as well. I still struggle to wrap my head around WTF is going on right now. Nothing adds up.

I hear ya. I'm going to start another thread on this issue.
But to be clear, the major points of entry on the Left Coast were shutdown pretty quickly and haven't reopened. We've been sheltering for over a month now.
NYC is dense (and expensive) so that may be the combination that sparked their catastrophic cascade. And also, the subways may have been a vector of transmission and distribution, though there have been criticisms of that paper (PDF).

about   best comments   contact   one year ago   suggestions