2020 Apr 11, 3:55pm
788 views 27 comments
the truth is, a test that is 95% accurate isn’t much use at all. Even the smallest errors can blow up over a large population. Let’s say coronavirus has infected 5% of the population. If you test a million people at random, you ought to find 50,000 positive results and 950,000 negative results. But if the test is 95% sensitive and specific, it test will correctly identify only 47,500 positive results and 902,500 negative results. That leaves 50,000 people who have a false result....a whopping 47,500 people who are actually negative—not immune—could incorrectly test positive. Half of the 95,000 people who are told they are immune and free to go about their business might never have been infected yet.Because we don’t know what the real infection rate is—1%, 3%, 5%, etc.—we don’t know how to truly predict what proportion of the immunity passports would be issued incorrectly.Chris Murray from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation told NPR his group’s models predict that come June, “at least 95% of the US will still be susceptible to the virus,” leaving them vulnerable to infection by the time a possible second wave comes around in the winter. Granting immunity passports to less than 5% of the workforce may not be all that worthwhile.
So fucking what? Hey, let's prevent folks from developing immunity and crash the economy. Brilliant!
There's already a report that says those that are over TrumpVirus could have a relapse.I posted it a few days ago. Ignore me & stay stupid.
You're trying to fight stubbornness. Good luck. I've probably given up at this point with the OP. There hasn't been one logical argument for their position since they came out of the basement.
There's a pretty clear path out of this -- drop the curve, re-open the economy, keep high-risk at home, test and contact trace like South Korea.
You don't have to answer, but are you Asian? Or are you old?
The only curve dropping we need to do is make sure old/weak people don't go out. Re-"open" the economy tomorrow, not May 1st. We haven't been testing the healthy at all. No models or "scientists" have any idea how many people have had this. We're basing this all off of pure fiction. Pure bullshit. We can trace active cases all day. Most are under the assumptions this came to the states in January. It's pure retardation to not understand that this has been around IN the US since November and December. The Chinese have actively been lying and they have simply given up on record keeping of their own virus. Hence why I ask my original question.
You're also very much blind to the fact that re-opening the economy will be too late by May 1st. The damage will be too severe. Maybe I'm better off than others, but what the fuck does $2,400 do for a coup...
ThreeBays saysThere's a pretty clear path out of this -- drop the curve, re-open the economy, keep high-risk at home, test and contact trace like South Korea.You don't have to answer, but are you Asian? Or are you old? You seem way too defensive on this subject. The only curve dropping we need to do is make sure old/weak people don't go out. Re-"open" the economy tomorrow, not May 1st. We haven't been testing the healthy at all. No models or "scientists" have any idea how many people have had this. We're basing this all off of pure fiction. Pure bullshit. We can trace active cases all day. Most are under the assumptions this came to the states in January. It's pure retardation to not understand that this has been around IN the US since November and December. The Chinese have actively been lying and they have simply given up on record keeping of their own virus. Hence wh...
Eeesh there’s a lot wrong with your post starting with the fact this wasn’t here in Nov and Dec. It was just a. Bad strain of flu.
Next, the $2400 is just a bonus. They’ll be eligible for UE even if they’ve only been working a. Short time. In CA UE is up to about $420 a week plus the feds $600.
But there are people that I care about that are old.
Do you lobby the government to shut down the economy over flu deaths? 80,000 oldsters died from the flu a few years back.
“Yeah, look, I mean … we’re involved in 68 lawsuits with the Trump administration. I’ve been on your show, I haven’t been timid. He certainly hasn’t been timid,” Newsom responded. “But I got to say this, it’s just the fact. I’d be lying to you. I’d be lying to the American people. Every single direct request that he was capable of meeting he has met. We have the U.S.N.S Mercy in California because of his direct intervention and support; 2,000 of these federal medical stations because of his direct support.”“And so I can only speak for myself, but I have to be complimentary, otherwise I would be simply lying to you, misleading you,” Newsom continued. “And that is a wonderful thing to be able to say, and I hope that continues. But this has been a remarkable moment, or at least we’ve been able to rise above that partisanship.”
This is a terrible response.
#3 the overwhelming sentiment on Pat.net is that we need to consider the cost of having a near non existent economy. How long that goes on for...is still being debated here but understandably the natives are restless.
Some people are so sure it's only a bad flu. Just before, Wookie was pointing out how the scientists don't know anything. Yet somehow, Pat.net knows what others can not.
ThreeBays saysdo touristy stuff if there were bodies piling up? Apocalypse tourism!Machine gun, rape and eat the survivors from close range!INNOVATION!MAGA!
do touristy stuff if there were bodies piling up?
I have not claimed to be an expert. At some point your actual observations of what's happening around you matter though. Information from nurses and doctors that I know. Empty hospitals in one of the "hotspot" locations. Number of people you know tested. 3 and 2 died (1 suicide too). I'm talking a network of friends of friends that I would have heard something from about 5k people. This isn't some small sample size.
We know that with testing, reasonable social distancing measures, ppe for medical personal, isolation of vulnerable population, and maybe a few Trump Pills, this virus can be controlled. It’s not even a debate, many countries have done it at this point.Social distancing is not designed to save lives. It is designed so that hospitals do not get overrun.