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Why it’s too early to start giving out “immunity passports”

By ThreeBays follow ThreeBays   2020 Apr 11, 3:55pm 788 views   27 comments   watch   nsfw   quote   share    


https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/09/998974/immunity-passports-cornavirus-antibody-test-outside/

the truth is, a test that is 95% accurate isn’t much use at all. Even the smallest errors can blow up over a large population. Let’s say coronavirus has infected 5% of the population. If you test a million people at random, you ought to find 50,000 positive results and 950,000 negative results. But if the test is 95% sensitive and specific, it test will correctly identify only 47,500 positive results and 902,500 negative results. That leaves 50,000 people who have a false result.

...a whopping 47,500 people who are actually negative—not immune—could incorrectly test positive. Half of the 95,000 people who are told they are immune and free to go about their business might never have been infected yet.

Because we don’t know what the real infection rate is—1%, 3%, 5%, etc.—we don’t know how to truly predict what proportion of the immunity passports would be issued incorrectly.

Chris Murray from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation told NPR his group’s models predict that come June, “at least 95% of the US will still be susceptible to the virus,” leaving them vulnerable to infection by the time a possible second wave comes around in the winter. Granting immunity passports to less than 5% of the workforce may not be all that worthwhile.
1   Tenpoundbass   ignore (16)   2020 Apr 11, 4:02pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

I'm leading the Governor Recall elections in every State that demands them.

Don't you fuckers make me conjure up 50 more Trumps!
2   Al_Sharpton_for_President   ignore (6)   2020 Apr 11, 4:16pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

So fucking what? Hey, let's prevent folks from developing immunity and crash the economy. Brilliant!
3   Ceffer   ignore (6)   2020 Apr 11, 4:32pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

It's never too early to conjure any promotional arbitrary fear meme to impose the Will Of The State on the lumpenproletariat.
4   WookieMan   ignore (7)   2020 Apr 11, 4:38pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

willywonka says
So fucking what? Hey, let's prevent folks from developing immunity and crash the economy. Brilliant!

You're trying to fight stubbornness. Good luck. I've probably given up at this point with the OP. There hasn't been one logical argument for their position since they came out of the basement.

This is a virus. We cannot shut down for 12 months. You'll either live or die. Oh well.
5   WookieMan   ignore (7)   2020 Apr 11, 4:54pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

HEYYOU says
There's already a report that says those that are over TrumpVirus could have a relapse.
I posted it a few days ago. Ignore me & stay stupid.

And? What's our point?
6   ThreeBays   ignore (4)   2020 Apr 11, 4:57pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

WookieMan says
You're trying to fight stubbornness. Good luck. I've probably given up at this point with the OP. There hasn't been one logical argument for their position since they came out of the basement.


I keep on sharing logical arguments and data with you.

There's a pretty clear path out of this -- drop the curve, re-open the economy, keep high-risk at home, test and contact trace like South Korea.

https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2020/04/apple-and-google-partner-on-covid-19-contact-tracing-technology/
7   Tenpoundbass   ignore (16)   2020 Apr 11, 5:10pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Here's the problem I have with this concept, you're going to deny the healthy that has not been sick or might never be sick from their rights?

Anyone that doesn't see this is as gross draconian overreach, worthy of a bloody revolt if it is ever realized. Are the prefect Democrat Voter.
8   WookieMan   ignore (7)   2020 Apr 11, 5:14pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

ThreeBays says
There's a pretty clear path out of this -- drop the curve, re-open the economy, keep high-risk at home, test and contact trace like South Korea.

You don't have to answer, but are you Asian? Or are you old? You seem way too defensive on this subject.

The only curve dropping we need to do is make sure old/weak people don't go out. Re-"open" the economy tomorrow, not May 1st. We haven't been testing the healthy at all. No models or "scientists" have any idea how many people have had this. We're basing this all off of pure fiction. Pure bullshit.

We can trace active cases all day. Most are under the assumptions this came to the states in January. It's pure retardation to not understand that this has been around IN the US since November and December. The Chinese have actively been lying and they have simply given up on record keeping of their own virus. Hence why I ask my original question.

You're also very much blind to the fact that re-opening the economy will be too late by May 1st. The damage will be too severe. Maybe I'm better off than others, but what the fuck does $2,400 do for a couple that just got their first jobs and then just lost them? On the low end that's rent and a car payment. How the fuck you gonna eat?
9   ThreeBays   ignore (4)   2020 Apr 11, 5:21pm     ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag      

WookieMan says
You don't have to answer, but are you Asian? Or are you old?


Nope and nope. But there are people that I care about that are old.

The only curve dropping we need to do is make sure old/weak people don't go out. Re-"open" the economy tomorrow, not May 1st. We haven't been testing the healthy at all. No models or "scientists" have any idea how many people have had this. We're basing this all off of pure fiction. Pure bullshit.

We can trace active cases all day. Most are under the assumptions this came to the states in January. It's pure retardation to not understand that this has been around IN the US since November and December. The Chinese have actively been lying and they have simply given up on record keeping of their own virus. Hence why I ask my original question.


So which models or scientists tell you that we had this since November or December? Which ones tell you it's a good idea to open?

You say it's all based on bullshit, yet you sure seem to think you are right.

You're also very much blind to the fact that re-opening the economy will be too late by May 1st. The damage will be too severe. Maybe I'm better off than others, but what the fuck does $2,400 do for a coup...


That I know, it's already too severe. I'm lucky to not be affected except my brokerage accounts lost a bundle, but that'll come back before I need it. But it's a risk / reward thing. It's mighty arrogant to think you know better than the G7 leaders.
10   FuckTheMainstreamMedia   ignore (7)   2020 Apr 11, 5:29pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

WookieMan says
ThreeBays says
There's a pretty clear path out of this -- drop the curve, re-open the economy, keep high-risk at home, test and contact trace like South Korea.

You don't have to answer, but are you Asian? Or are you old? You seem way too defensive on this subject.

The only curve dropping we need to do is make sure old/weak people don't go out. Re-"open" the economy tomorrow, not May 1st. We haven't been testing the healthy at all. No models or "scientists" have any idea how many people have had this. We're basing this all off of pure fiction. Pure bullshit.

We can trace active cases all day. Most are under the assumptions this came to the states in January. It's pure retardation to not understand that this has been around IN the US since November and December. The Chinese have actively been lying and they have simply given up on record keeping of their own virus. Hence wh...


Eeesh there’s a lot wrong with your post starting with the fact this wasn’t here in Nov and Dec. It was just a. Bad strain of flu.

https://slate.com/technology/2020/04/coronavirus-circulating-california-2019-bunk.amp

Next, the $2400 is just a bonus. They’ll be eligible for UE even if they’ve only been working a. Short time. In CA UE is up to about $420 a week plus the feds $600.

Combined with landlord moratorium, no ones gonna starve in the short term...say the next 3 months.

That said, yes I agree I’d like thing to open sooner than May 1st.
11   WookieMan   ignore (7)   2020 Apr 11, 6:29pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

FuckTheMainstreamMedia says
Eeesh there’s a lot wrong with your post starting with the fact this wasn’t here in Nov and Dec. It was just a. Bad strain of flu.

Hey, not my place to judge, but if you want to trust Chinese data I won't stop you. I don't believe a damn thing coming out of that country. If we don't know there's a new virus that causes pneumonia, most doctors are going to assume it's pneumonia. There's zero reason to look for other causes. Likely would take 30-60 days to develop a trend and cause concern. The Chinese "supposedly" had an idea around Dec. 10th. My guess is it was substantially earlier. There were hundreds of thousands that traveled between the US and China/Asia during October-December.
https://www.axios.com/timeline-the-early-days-of-chinas-coronavirus-outbreak-and-cover-up-ee65211a-afb6-4641-97b8-353718a5faab.html

FuckTheMainstreamMedia says
Next, the $2400 is just a bonus. They’ll be eligible for UE even if they’ve only been working a. Short time. In CA UE is up to about $420 a week plus the feds $600.

You know anyone that filed for UE and is getting it yet? UE isn't a full paycheck either. Restaurant workers are reliant on tips they don't report, let's be honest. The $2,400 is a one time thing if you don't make any money and will likely get pissed away. The assumption that we just open up as normal, even assuming there won't be restrictions (there will be), businesses will go bust regardless of the stimulus. Fact remains that someone has to pay for this stimulus. We're likely entering a recession, best case.

I'm just being realistic. Not trying to make friends here. People need to understand that this crisis is level 10 out of 10 and it has nothing to do with the virus. It never had anything to do with the virus.
14   Booger   ignore (6)   2020 Apr 11, 7:20pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Shutting down the economy to slightly prolong the lives of a small number of people who are going to die soon anyway is insane.
15   Al_Sharpton_for_President   ignore (6)   2020 Apr 11, 8:04pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

ThreeBays says
But there are people that I care about that are old.
Do you lobby the government to shut down the economy over flu deaths? 80,000 oldsters died from the flu a few years back.
16   MisdemeanorRebel   ignore (3)   2020 Apr 11, 10:24pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

willywonka says
Do you lobby the government to shut down the economy over flu deaths? 80,000 oldsters died from the flu a few years back.


That's not counting pneumonia (50k/year) or the OTHER strains of common cold, either. Pneumonia even got mighty Jack Lalanne.

This Coronavirus is just another strain of it, itself another strain of the common cold viruses:

Many different respiratory viruses can cause the common cold, but rhinoviruses are the most common. Rhinoviruses can also trigger asthma attacks and have been linked to sinus and ear infections. Other viruses that can cause colds include respiratory syncytial virus, human parainfluenza viruses, adenovirus, human coronaviruses, and human metapneumovirus.
https://www.cdc.gov/features/rhinoviruses/index.html
18   FuckTheMainstreamMedia   ignore (7)   2020 Apr 11, 10:53pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

ThreeBays says


This is a terrible response.

#1 in many situations,indecisiveness can make a problem worse.

#2 it doesn’t apply here. All the action that can be taken is in fact currently being taken.

“Yeah, look, I mean … we’re involved in 68 lawsuits with the Trump administration. I’ve been on your show, I haven’t been timid. He certainly hasn’t been timid,” Newsom responded. “But I got to say this, it’s just the fact. I’d be lying to you. I’d be lying to the American people. Every single direct request that he was capable of meeting he has met. We have the U.S.N.S Mercy in California because of his direct intervention and support; 2,000 of these federal medical stations because of his direct support.”

“And so I can only speak for myself, but I have to be complimentary, otherwise I would be simply lying to you, misleading you,” Newsom continued. “And that is a wonderful thing to be able to say, and I hope that continues. But this has been a remarkable moment, or at least we’ve been able to rise above that partisanship.”


https://www.dailywire.com/news/democrat-gov-newsom-trump-has-met-every-single-direct-request-that-he-was-capable-of-meeting

#3 the overwhelming sentiment on Pat.net is that we need to consider the cost of having a near non existent economy. How long that goes on for...is still being debated here but understandably the natives are restless.
19   ThreeBays   ignore (4)   2020 Apr 11, 11:22pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

FuckTheMainstreamMedia says
This is a terrible response.


Some people are so sure it's only a bad flu. Just before, Wookie was pointing out how the scientists don't know anything. Yet somehow, Pat.net knows what others can not.

#3 the overwhelming sentiment on Pat.net is that we need to consider the cost of having a near non existent economy. How long that goes on for...is still being debated here but understandably the natives are restless.


Yeah, the cost is immense. But that ship has sailed. The restlessness is understandable, but it's not smart. Going on a global march would do what exactly? Probably give us extra time on the medicine we hate. And the alternative, we don't really have an idea of how letting the disease rip would affect the economy. How many people would go shopping, go to restaurants, do touristy stuff if there were bodies piling up? Would people social distance out of fear? Could we have a more disorderly and prolonged economy hit?
20   Reality   ignore (8)   2020 Apr 12, 4:43am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Where in the US Constitution does it say that you need an "Immunity Passport" to enjoy the Bill of Rights?

Corona Virus is an RNA virus, having only single-stranded RNA (not double-helix DNA for internal error-checking), which means it mutates frequently. Anyone selling "Immunity Passport" is a scientifically provable fraud. Just like all his historical predecessors who have worked on similar schemes for thousands of years, Bill Gates is in effect working on an ID/tracking/registration scheme that would one day make it impossible for himself, Melinda and any of their three kids to escape when politics turn against them and decide that killing them and taking their money would be in the interest of "public good."

It's utterly stupid to lock down the economy for what is essentially a new type of common cold (which initially can appear like flu due to its newness and the relative lack of immunity to the new strain among the human population). Locking down the general society while not locking down hospitals and nursing homes in effect gives the more deadly strains/sub-strains an evolutionary advantage over the competing strains/sub-strains that are less harmful and less likely to land people in hospitals (yet similar enough to the deadly strains so as to give people immunity against the more deadly strains if exposed to the less harmful ones first). The locking down of society (while not locking down hospitals) is in effect a Crime Against Humanity: causing more people to be dead than would have been the case without the lock-down.

People who are exposed to the less deadly strains/sub-strains/variants in social settings, especially outdoor under the Sun's UV light, tend to acquire immunity against similar strains/substrains/variants after exposure to a small dose of nearly dead virus. That's how human normally acquire immunity against virii that cause respiratory diseases and why Corona Virus has survived as an RNA virus through rapid mutation (a DNA respiratory disease virus with stable genetics and dependent on aerosol/airborne transmission would have been eliminated by UV light in summer and human immunal response built up after exposure to dead virus in the air). The business end of Bill Gates' lock-down scheme (and Fauci and Birx being paid to do his bidding) is literally an implementation of Federic Bastiat's allegory of the candle makers petitioning the government to mandate the blocking out of the Sun in order to make candle business more profitable.
21   WookieMan   ignore (7)   2020 Apr 12, 5:35am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

ThreeBays says
Some people are so sure it's only a bad flu. Just before, Wookie was pointing out how the scientists don't know anything. Yet somehow, Pat.net knows what others can not.

I have not claimed to be an expert. At some point your actual observations of what's happening around you matter though. Information from nurses and doctors that I know. Empty hospitals in one of the "hotspot" locations. Number of people you know tested. 3 and 2 died (1 suicide too). I'm talking a network of friends of friends that I would have heard something from about 5k people. This isn't some small sample size.

The virus is dangerous for those that can succumb to it. What little data we have on the virus is pretty accurate as to who this affects. This is something I think most can agree on. Math and data are important, but too many people are solely focused on positive tested by the number that have died. Deaths are the only thing that really matters because of emotions and feelings. We can't and won't test the entire populace to get an accurate death rate. When you call out people for calling it the common flu, you don't have any evidence to present that it's more dangerous. It's impossible. Hence my comments about scientists. Remember scientist told us that NYC and Florida would be under water by now?? These one's are different though, right?

So far the solution has been to run and hide and not one person here as given a legitimate reason why that makes sense. Countries that have shut down less than us show the same trends as ours and other shut down countries. I'll agree, it's likely safer to shut down. But we're now shutting down entire industries until JULY. You don't have to like cruising, but in places like Miami it's a massive part of their economy. CDC has shut it down until mid July effectively, but could rescind the decision early. Many of these jobs were low paying or cash tips in ports like Miami. A UE check isn't going to do much for these people.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/04/11/why-royal-caribbean-carnival-and-norwegian-cruise.aspx

You also have to start questioning things when you see these types of articles. Isn't that funny timing.... November?
https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-us-update-fauci-novemeber-1497393

Trump doesn't need to fire Fauci, but I'm sorry I need to hear a 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, etc. opinion when we do things this dramatically. November?? The capitol will be burned down by then if we're not back to normal. And most cities across the country.
22   Booger   ignore (6)   2020 Apr 12, 5:47am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostakovitch says
ThreeBays says
do touristy stuff if there were bodies piling up?


Apocalypse tourism!

Machine gun, rape and eat the survivors from close range!

INNOVATION!

MAGA!


I. could see this happening on a cruise ship.
23   Al_Sharpton_for_President   ignore (6)   2020 Apr 12, 6:12am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Mortality projections based upon deaths in a naive population may lead to incorrect and dangerous conclusions. Immunity develops over time and mortality naturally decreases over time. Any model that projects mortality must take the development of immunity in account in its projections of mortality in a population.
24   Shaman   ignore (2)   2020 Apr 12, 8:04am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Human beings have to make choices every day with incomplete facts or sometimes very few facts at all. We have mental algorithms which help us with these decisions, how to take just a few facts about a situation and plot a way forward. We use history to help us, we use instinct to know when to stop dithering and decide, and we use the example of others.
The art of making great decisions without many facts to go on is the epitome of wisdom. And to not decide is also a decision. You can’t sit back and wait for all the facts when you’re hiring an employee. Maybe a better person will apply tomorrow or next week! But at some point you have to decide to hire a person based on what you already know. You have to buy that house even though you haven’t looked at every house in the city. You have to choose a mate even though you’ve only dated forty-five people. You have to choose a restaurant for dinner even though you don’t know the area.
You have to choose.
Choose wisely!
25   ThreeBays   ignore (4)   2020 Apr 12, 12:47pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

WookieMan says
I have not claimed to be an expert. At some point your actual observations of what's happening around you matter though. Information from nurses and doctors that I know. Empty hospitals in one of the "hotspot" locations. Number of people you know tested. 3 and 2 died (1 suicide too). I'm talking a network of friends of friends that I would have heard something from about 5k people. This isn't some small sample size.


I think your numbers are consistent with the current state of progression in your area. What can it tell you other than, it's not that bad right now?

We can't separate that variable from the equation, the fact that these fairly draconian suppression methods are in place. Hospitals being empty in many places is not surprising given the level that covid-19 cases has been suppressed to. The number of trauma accidents are way down. The number of regular "flu" cases are also way down, influenza is practically going extinct (see https://healthweather.us/?regionId=17031&mode=Atypical for example).

Here's some data on Santa Clara county, a hotspot, https://www.sccgov.org/sites/phd/DiseaseInformation/novel-coronavirus/Pages/dashboard.aspx. 23.5% of ICU beds occupied by covid-19, 44.30% occupied by others, 32.25% empty.

Nurses and doctors would be able to tell you they have space, and other hospital use is down, but looking at the "now" does little to answer the "what if?". Somehow I keep mentioning facts we "do know" and you keep overlooking them and pointing back to your own anecdote. Fact 1 the virus was freely doubling around every 3 days, implying hospitals could quickly go from half full to full if that continued. That changed as soon as they locked-down. Fact 2, NYS has 30 times more deaths per-capita than CA, implying there's lots of room to go up.

Just trying to get the facts strait. The facts need to be separated from the policy decision. Me arguing about the facts doesn't mean I like shutting down the economy. It's a death / hospital capacity & resources / economy question. The strategy to go with suppression was already chosen though, thereby tanking the economy. We could have picked the one where more people die instead. Now, if you imagine we could have the worst of both worlds if they opened up too soon. Modulating that is likely what we're going to see. It might still be the case that we can't contain it after re-opening things, and we'll have Fauci on TV saying "welp, it didn't work... we can't keep the economy shut down for 12 months so now we're going to have both a lot of people dying and the economy busted to boot." SK has it under control, but if you listen - every day is a war to keep it that way.
26   ignoreme   ignore (3)   2020 Apr 12, 8:27pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

I think the thing that is overlooked in this whole discussion is how badly China screwed the whole world over. They lied about the death rates, human to human transmission, origin of the virus. Even allowing US researchers in to study was cut off. And then as an extra fuck you, they bought up the worlds supply of ppe.

So then this thing comes roaring out of Asia, hits Italy and the world has a shit their pants moment. Understandably, a lot of countries took very aggressive measures because we had 0 info we could rely on from China.

Now that we’ve dealt with it longer, we see there are better alternatives to dealing with this situation because this lockdown cannot continue past April.

We know that with testing, reasonable social distancing measures, ppe for medical personal, isolation of vulnerable population, and maybe a few Trump Pills, this virus can be controlled. It’s not even a debate, many countries have done it at this point.

Unfortunately, once Trump makes this call, all we’re going to see from that day until November is a running tally of every person that has died of corona laid at Trumps feet. It’s dumb and partisan and unfortunately, the reality of the Shit Sandwich we need to eat right now is to nuanced to explain to scared soccer moms.

Social distancing is not designed to save lives. It is designed so that hospitals do not get overrun. This is a global pandemic. Absent a vaccine, which is unlikely to ever be developed, this virus will continue until most people have had it and either lived or died. So the only question we should be asking ourselves about policy decisions we are considering is if hospitals will be overwhelmed if we don’t limit some activity. Outside of canceling concerts, theme parks, and cruises, I don’t see why we can’t all go back to work after taking some reasonable precautions like wearing a mask.
27   ThreeBays   ignore (4)   2020 Apr 12, 8:56pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

ignoreme says
We know that with testing, reasonable social distancing measures, ppe for medical personal, isolation of vulnerable population, and maybe a few Trump Pills, this virus can be controlled. It’s not even a debate, many countries have done it at this point.

Social distancing is not designed to save lives. It is designed so that hospitals do not get overrun.


Which countries are you thinking of?

I think that if you watch what's happening, most countries that were caught with their pants down including US are all using a "suppression" level of social distancing. This is designed to not just keep hospitals from getting overrun, but to cut the wave short to a more manageable level of daily cases. That's why everyone is looking for the peak and the curve down. From a lower daily case count my money is they switch to what you say, reasonable social distancing, etc. plus contact tracing.

Many states that have low counts ought to open end of April. I don't see NY doing that, and L.A. already extended to May 15 so there's smoke there to indicate that they don't think we're ending lock-down everywhere by April.

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