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The curve is clearly peaking


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2020 Apr 7, 8:33am   3,113 views  74 comments

by Patrick   ➕follow (55)   💰tip   ignore  



from https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

It's kind of amazing how consistent these curves are.

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2   FuckTheMainstreamMedia   2020 Apr 7, 10:06am  

Spain, Germany, Italy already over the hump. US will be there this week or next.

It’s actually not the politicians this go round who are causing the problems. I have not one quibble with LA Mayor Garcetti, whom I despise, on his handling of this. Nor with Newsom save for the fact that I think he is intentionally playing over cautious in the misguided belief that people can’t be trusted and must be fed the worst case scenario so that they’ll comply.

The problem is the US msm. CNN, ABC, CBS, NBC.

MSNBC is an utter joke at this point. Anyone listening to anything spouted by liar Rachel Maddow is an imbecile.

That people don’t know that cases will start declining in a week or two, that revised projections have the last US case from this in June, that 5-15 minute testing will be available everywhere in a month or less demonstrates exactly how corrupt our msm is. That stufff should all be front page headline news, not the doom and gloom, not the notion that this will slog on for 18 months

GTFO here with all that bullshit. Watch the presidents press briefings every day, listen to Dr Fauci, Dr. Birx, and pay attention to the stats. You don’t need some lying spokeshole misleading you on any of this.
3   🎂 Tenpoundbass   2020 Apr 7, 11:11am  

Doctors and nurses everywhere marvel about how there are no longer heart attack, strokes, or cancer deaths and only coronavirus deaths.
4   Ceffer   2020 Apr 7, 11:17am  

It's the known arc for standard respiratory viral contagions when left alone to operate in populations. Known apparently for a long time to epidemiologists with no irons in the fire, but not Fauci, CNN, etc. etc.
5   georgeliberte   2020 Apr 7, 11:48am  

Nor with Newsom save for the fact that I think he is intentionally playing over cautious in the misguided belief that people can’t be trusted and must be fed the worst case scenario so that they’ll comply.
Yes, but using the worst case scenario too many times inoculates the population against belief.
ANd also yes, one problem is that many 'experts' hav irons in the fire in terms of funding, prestige, and access to promotion.
6   RWSGFY   2020 Apr 7, 12:08pm  

georgeliberte says
Nor with Newsom save for the fact that I think he is intentionally playing over cautious in the misguided belief that people can’t be trusted and must be fed the worst case scenario so that they’ll comply.


Some people (like several of my neighbors or my BIL) will not comply until a NG soldier hits them square in the face with the butt of a Garand. I swear some of them started to drive around more than before that whole SIP shit started. They hear the news about lockdown and feel a sudden urge to drive to fucking Utah and back to visit some friend they haven't even spoken to in years.
7   Patrick   2020 Apr 7, 12:24pm  

CovfefeButDeadly says
The problem is the US msm. CNN, ABC, CBS, NBC.


Yes, but don't forget NPR and the NY Times.

They are much more insidious because they have higher status, and so their propaganda is accepted without question by the entire academic class, which loves markers of status above all else

Tenpoundbass says
Doctors and nurses everywhere marvel about how there are no longer heart attack, strokes, or cancer deaths and only coronavirus deaths.


It will definitely be interesting to see if those other causes of death declined significantly during this. It would prove that the Wuhan virus stats were exaggerate by that amount.
8   mell   2020 Apr 7, 12:29pm  

Patrick says
CovfefeButDeadly says
The problem is the US msm. CNN, ABC, CBS, NBC.


Yes, but don't forget NPR and the NY Times.

They are much more insidious because they have higher status, and so their propaganda is accepted without question by the entire academic class, which loves markers of status above all else

Tenpoundbass says
Doctors and nurses everywhere marvel about how there are no longer heart attack, strokes, or cancer deaths and only coronavirus deaths.


It will definitely be interesting to see if those other causes of death declined significantly during this. It would prove that the Wuhan virus stats were exaggerate by that amount.


Note that they also constantly parrot and trumpet the re/new infection rise after opening up (partially) as an (orange! man!) bad! thing!. You actually want that as long as its controlled to bolster herd immunity. As long as the hospitals can cope that is the ideal strategy.
9   Y   2020 Apr 7, 12:40pm  

You'll know it's bolstered when you grow horns...

mell says
You actually want that as long as its controlled to bolster herd immunity.
10   rdm   2020 Apr 7, 12:48pm  

Patrick says
It's kind of amazing how consistent these curves are.

Yes they are, because they had national stay at home orders, The US is hodgepodge of state and local orders, of various strength, so it remains to be seen if we will follow that same trajectory. My guess and it's a just guess is we will plateau at a fairly high level more like Iran than China, as some states decline and others see more cases.
11   rdm   2020 Apr 7, 12:53pm  

mell says
You actually want that as long as its controlled to bolster herd immunity. As long as the hospitals can cope that is the ideal strategy.


I agree with this but it's really a tricky balance. And probably involves multiple on and off stay at home orders
12   socal2   2020 Apr 7, 1:02pm  

Tim Aurora says
Watch the Fox news on COVID-19 and then show the MSM. You cannot rewrite history anymore.


How about this?

13   marcus   2020 Apr 7, 1:05pm  

Tenpoundbass says
Doctors and nurses everywhere marvel about how there are no longer heart attack, strokes, or cancer deaths and only coronavirus deaths.


Source ? So juvenile. I have to assume you're pulling this out of your ass.

If you we're right you wouldn't have to constantly trumpet bs, you could use established facts instead. Of course you get strokes from all the cucks, so you're not going to stop. This has been the hallmark of right wing entertainment for decades, why change now ?
14   socal2   2020 Apr 7, 1:12pm  

marcus says
Source ? So juvenile. I have to assume you're pulling this out of your ass.


The NYtimes had an article about this yesterday.

Here is one from NBC.
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/coronavirus-surges-non-covid-medical-emergencies-take-back-seat-putting-n1175871
15   marcus   2020 Apr 7, 1:21pm  

socal2 says

The NYtimes had an article about this yesterday.

Here is one from NBC.


I didn't think this was what he's saying. Maybe I'm assuming too much based on the other made up stuff tpb says, but I'm pretty sure he's implying "There are no deaths" due to these other causes becasue all of them are going in to the Covid-19 death numbers.


Tenpoundbass says
Doctors and nurses everywhere marvel about how there are no longer heart attack, strokes, or cancer deaths and only coronavirus deaths.
16   marcus   2020 Apr 7, 1:27pm  

Patrick says
The curve is clearly peaking


Inflection point or so anyway. Peaking is 2 to three weeks out, looking at those other graphs.
17   Heraclitusstudent   2020 Apr 7, 1:34pm  

CovfefeButDeadly says
The problem is the US msm. CNN, ABC, CBS, NBC.

MSNBC is an utter joke at this point.

Many comments from right wingers here are far bigger jokes than anything on the MSM.

Layers upon layers of denial, paranoia, absurdly optimistic assessments... Together with the sheer incapacity to project an exponential 2 weeks out.

Yes, the curve is bending down thanks to dramatic measures that will shave a large chunk of the GDP.

That's just the first part of the problem.
The story moving forward is how you remove the lockdown measures.
18   FuckTheMainstreamMedia   2020 Apr 7, 1:40pm  

Heraclitusstudent says
CovfefeButDeadly says
The problem is the US msm. CNN, ABC, CBS, NBC.

MSNBC is an utter joke at this point.

Many comments from right wingers here are far bigger jokes than anything on the MSM.

Layers upon layers of denial and paranoia...

Yes, the curve is bending down thanks to dramatic measures that will shave a large chunk of the GDP.

That's just the first part of the problem.
The story moving forward is how you remove the lockdown measures.


I don’t disagree but when viewership of Pat.net is .00001 percent of the viewership of msm, I don’t understand what point you are trying to make.
19   socal2   2020 Apr 7, 1:48pm  

CovfefeButDeadly says
I don’t understand what point you are trying to make.


Rando posters on a tiny forum somehow excuses NBC and MSNBC from being total shills for Communist China?
20   Onvacation   2020 Apr 7, 2:17pm  

personal
21   Heraclitusstudent   2020 Apr 7, 2:17pm  

You don't think having an opinion that is far too optimistic will make you think the MSM is far too negative and dramatic?
22   WookieMan   2020 Apr 7, 2:20pm  

Heraclitusstudent says
The story moving forward is how you remove the lockdown measures.

Just remove them... The people that were going to die from it will or have died by the end of April. The next wave can't and won't be bigger. And we just move on.

I feel like a lot of our posters/commenters here might be 55+ and out of shape or something and are fearful. I'll do my part, but May 1st I'm going back to normal regardless of what the government says. Not gonna walk around wearing a mask because people decided to eat like shit and smoke their whole lives. And if it some how kills me in the process so be it. This isn't short term sacrifice. It's absolute bull shit.

We still have what.... another 23 days of this in most places? Good luck extending beyond that. Especially for the one's that started mid-March. The slobbering fat fucks are still stammering around in public, rolling around on electric carts with oxygen tanks in the back. I'm starting to believe this is all bull shit. Yes people are dying, but STILL the nurses in my suburban area are saying their hospitals are empty.

Given the "exponential" growth and "hockey stick" I still only know of 3 total cases and out of that 2 had died. They likely would have anyway in the coming months. I'm not into conspiracies, but I'm starting to think this is waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyy overhyped, more so than I thought before.
23   Onvacation   2020 Apr 7, 2:23pm  

Some people thrive on doom and gloom. There was this guy who made a movie in the early 2000's who predicted the north pole ice would be melted by 2013 and Florida and Manhattan would be beneath the ocean by now because of global warming. It's almost as if some people crave disaster and do not believe in the resilience of humans.
24   Heraclitusstudent   2020 Apr 7, 3:43pm  

WookieMan says

Just remove them... The people that were going to die from it will or have died by the end of April. The next wave can't and won't be bigger. And we just move on.


This is what I mean by absurdly optimistic assessments.

The assertion that those that would die will be already dead by end of April relies on nothing. Most people that would die have not been exposed to the virus so far.

If we remove the lockdown measures fully, 75% of the population will end-up getting the virus and maybe 2 millions will die.
25   FuckTheMainstreamMedia   2020 Apr 7, 4:00pm  

Heraclitusstudent says
You don't think having an opinion that is far too optimistic will make you think the MSM is far too negative and dramatic?


Maybe, but it’s Pat, Wookie, and I who have been doing most of the complaining. To the best of my knowledge none of us has said we’ll be out of this before the end of April. While that might seem overly optimistic, it’s optimistic by maybe 2-4 weeks over the President and Fauci. Meanwhile the msm has enjoyed creating a narrative of never ending quarantine.
26   georgeliberte   2020 Apr 7, 4:13pm  

California is not buying that and declaring social distancing a success.
https://www.sfgate.com/coronavirus/article/california-covid-19-peak-models-may-15185230.php
27   mell   2020 Apr 7, 4:15pm  

Heraclitusstudent says
WookieMan says

Just remove them... The people that were going to die from it will or have died by the end of April. The next wave can't and won't be bigger. And we just move on.


This is what I mean by absurdly optimistic assessments.

The assertion that those that would die will be already dead by end of April relies on nothing. Most people that would die have not been exposed to the virus so far.

If we remove the lockdown measures fully, 75% of the population will end-up getting the virus and maybe 2 millions will die.


That's very likely false. You have summer coming. Most hot countries and even states got away without country or state wide lockdown, also you don't know the true extent of people infected already. Data from Sweden shows a similar virus burn out curve without shutdown. Also you can reopen with restrictions and have those vulnerable wear masks at all times should they decide to mingle. The flu killed around 60k this year in the US, I'd be surprised if we reach 100k per season for Covid-19. Yet millions are deprived of their livelihood. If they by don't open up May 1st I expect unrest and defiance to mount. You can't keep people locked in cages for any longer period.
28   MisdemeanorRebel   2020 Apr 7, 4:52pm  

socal2 says
Tim Aurora says
Watch the Fox news on COVID-19 and then show the MSM. You cannot rewrite history anymore.


How about this?



It's breathtaking how they do 180s these days. At first it was a racist and economically damaging overreaction to close travel to China, then Europe, or to forgo large gatherings at a Festival in Chinatown.

Now 2 Million are gonna die, mostly minorities so it's racist, and they want the economy shut down as long as possible to be as damaging as possible.

And of course Hydrochloroquine is an OrangeManBad Placebo he's making money on because he owns a mutual fund with a 3.3% in Sanofil or whatever that company is called, about $1500 worth.
29   rdm   2020 Apr 7, 6:18pm  

NoCoupForYou says

It's breathtaking how they do 180s these days


And what about its going to disappear like a miracle in April, to this week is going to be really really bad (paraphrasing) And who has the bully pulpit every fucking day?
30   mell   2020 Apr 7, 6:31pm  

USA tested almost 2.1MM people, more than any other nation. Even per 1MM capita they're in the still somewhere in the middle. So much for the "botched testing" narrative.
31   WookieMan   2020 Apr 7, 6:48pm  

Heraclitusstudent says
This is what I mean by absurdly optimistic assessments.

Not sure how I was optimistic. I simply don't care. This is extremely binary. We have choice A or B. A we stay closed down and people are killing themselves and other diseases get pushed aside. B we open back up and realize that a certain segment of the population needs to get to work to do whatever to help save people by producing goods for the medical field. Many people may die. So? We're not even close to touching any major war or other outbreak from this shit on a per capita basis. The world needs to stop being pussies and understand you can die at any moment.

Anyone thinking locking this down after April 30th needs a lobotomy. You'll likely be the first shot in the face. Hell they're still shooting people on the South side of Chicago.
32   EBGuy   2020 Apr 7, 8:04pm  

Italy had to go into lockdown for a month to stem the body count.
33   socal2   2020 Apr 7, 8:40pm  

rdm says
And what about its going to disappear like a miracle in April, to this week is going to be really really bad (paraphrasing) And who has the bully pulpit every fucking day?


Trump's happy talk and misstatements trying to keep the nation and markets calm about the virus in the early days don't hold a candle to the staggering hypocrisy and dishonesty we are seeing today by the Democrats and Media trying to gaslight the country to believe that Trump somehow fucked up and caused thousands of people to die.

It is even more crazy considering America is doing better than virtually every modern western country on the planet in keeping deaths and hospitalizations down.
34   Heraclitusstudent   2020 Apr 7, 10:16pm  

WookieMan says
This is extremely binary. We have choice A or B. A we stay closed down and people are killing themselves and other diseases get pushed aside. B we open back up and realize that a certain segment of the population needs to get to work to do whatever to help save people by producing goods for the medical field.


No it's not binary.
Some people will stay locked down. Large groups will still remain prohibited. While other people will be asked to go back to work with a shit load of precautions.

By the way, to food and medical supply chains are obviously opened now.
35   WookieMan   2020 Apr 8, 5:46am  

Heraclitusstudent says
Some people will stay locked down. Large groups will still remain prohibited. While other people will be asked to go back to work with a shit load of precautions.

Yes, correct. Old, fat fucks, diabetics, smokers, etc. Basically the unproductive will and should stay locked down..... and then won't listen and die. I feel like our views are finally converging though, so that's a positive.

We don't fully understand this virus. But with the US data, it's pretty clear who it's killing. If we cannot trust our own data and act on it, then we are truly fucked. We all know the course of action but it's now going to be twisted into some KKK/racist bullshit by the media.

Open the damn thing and take precautions if you're lazy. Those that have a hereditary issues, I feel you having one myself. But I personally don't expect anyone to bend over backwards for me and not make a living. Modern humans are not designed to live like this.
36   theoakman   2020 Apr 8, 7:33am  

Long term, this can't continue. The subset of the population that is at risk is by and large, not at the workplace of near retirement. Ultimately, they need to ramp up production of the anti-virals and n95 masks. Eventually, the workplace needs to shift to everyone wearing N95 masks until we get this thing properly vaccinated. And seniors need to shelter in fucking place. I'm in the epicenter in New Jersey and nobody I know is able to convince their senior parents to stay in. They go out and about and to 5 different stores to pick up all the items on sale to save 50 cents. Many of them are incapable of making their own rational decisions anymore with respect to this issue.
37   WookieMan   2020 Apr 8, 8:02am  

theoakman says
Long term, this can't continue. The subset of the population that is at risk is by and large, not at the workplace of near retirement. Ultimately, they need to ramp up production of the anti-virals and n95 masks. Eventually, the workplace needs to shift to everyone wearing N95 masks until we get this thing properly vaccinated. And seniors need to shelter in fucking place. I'm in the epicenter in New Jersey and nobody I know is able to convince their senior parents to stay in. They go out and about and to 5 different stores to pick up all the items on sale to save 50 cents. Many of them are incapable of making their own rational decisions anymore with respect to this issue.

+💯

We should start our own religion.... call it something like... intelligence.
38   Shaman   2020 Apr 8, 9:52am  

Tucker nails it once again.
I’m really starting to like and respect this man.
www.youtube.com/embed/ZCyqcoC747o
39   WookieMan   2020 Apr 8, 10:17am  

Shaman says
Tucker nails it once again

As much as it will make some shart their pants here, I don't watch FOX. This guy is logical and makes sense. If someone can make a counter argument to what Tucker says please let us all know...
40   Shaman   2020 Apr 8, 10:43am  

WookieMan says
I don't watch FOX.


I don’t either but a clip from his show comes up on my Youtube feed now and then.

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