patrick.net

Good article. It lines up with all the other news starting to leak out about the virus.

So what’s with the hysterical left? Do they just that badly want this to all be Trumps fault and be some crazy horrible thing that kills millions and tanks the US economy? What a bunch of sick disgusting people.

I asked Amy the lady at the Chinese Restaruant near my job, the place is dead ass empty now. Used to be line out the door.
She's from Hong Kong, and so are the 15 or so other employees that work there. They all have family all over China.
I asked her if She knows anyone, or know anyone who knows someone, that got the virus, forget died from it.
She told me no, but cited a well known Doctor in China that died last week.

There seems to be more celebs and doctors getting it than anyone else.

It's really strange, for a pandemic so deadly and dangerous, I still have not seen one person who knows someone that died from it, or got sick from it. Aside from second hand cases reported in the news.

That's not how any of this is supposed to work.
When the TV scares you, that's called Entertainment.

There was a child at my kids school who's parent got it. That's the only local story I know. Other than that, no one in my family/extended family has come in contact with anyone with the virus.

Hi TPB,

At my employer(several thousand employees), 12 had contracted it, 5 of whom I know on a working relationship basis.

One person out of 150 or so in my immediate workplace has come in contact with someone who had it, and was supposed to quarantine but like a moron showed up at work.

It’s no doubt way overblown by the media, but it’s a very real thing and your lack of empirical evidence doesn’t disprove it. Basically, you are barking up the wrong tree on this one.

joshuatrio says

There was a child at my kids school who's parent got it. That's the only local story I know. Other than that, no one in my family/extended family has come in contact with anyone with the virus.

Supposedly the aunt of the best man in my wedding got it. And a neighbor had a coworker die from it earlier this month in IL. I don't personally know one person that has it. I know some nurses pretty closely, at least 6-7, and they're taking it seriously, but said their hospitals have been nothing burgers.

WookieMan says

Supposedly the aunt of the best man in my wedding got it. And a neighbor had a coworker die from it earlier this month in IL. I don't personally know one person that has it. I know some nurses pretty closely, at least 6-7, and they're taking it seriously, but said their hospitals have been nothing burgers.

Yeah, my brother in law is an RN at a city hospital and said their covid unit is empty. Good friend is an RN supervisor for a large hospital in the Atlanta area and said it's been pretty normal overall.

CovfefeButDeadly says

So what’s with the hysterical left? Do they just that badly want this to all be Trumps fault and be some crazy horrible thing that kills millions and tanks the US economy?

Yes

CovfefeButDeadly says

It’s no doubt way overblown by the media, but it’s a very real thing and your lack of empirical evidence doesn’t disprove it.

I wasn't suggesting it's a hoax, but it's not the 7 degrees to Kevin Bacon that the media makes it out to be.
Just like all of the Pandemics in the past 20 years(they come every 2 years(election year).
I have never known anyone that caught any of the past global pandemics. This one should have not been treated any different than Zika, SARS, MERS, N1H1, Avian Flu, or any of the other ones.

Unless you're in a situation where the authorities are making a large group of people shelter in place/quarantine, most people's chances of getting this is the same as winning the lottery.

Doctors and medical professionals have a high contact rate because they are on the front lines, in closed quarters.
Political Staffers are getting it, because they are going on location to get firsthand reports on the status.
Most all of the cases in America in the first few months, were due to people still traveling, being in confined spaces with people who contacted it.

I think those in large urban areas are susceptible to getting it as well. Because so many people use the same common areas. Elevators, Stairwells, and Door entrances.
If I lived in an Apartment building, I would have taken my family and rented a farmhouse somewhere months ago.

If you live in a residential neighborhood, in detached housing, your chances of getting it, is damn near nill. Provided you're not going out and putting yourself out there.
I avoid all stores that has been ravaged. The grocery store I go to, has a wall of Toilet paper that has been untouched for two weeks.
The people run in and out just grabbing what they need. They all don't come at once, and there's normally less than 10 customers in the grocery store.

I avoid Publix and big box stores like the plague.

1% of 70% of the US population is 2.2 millions dead.
This is totally irrelevant, as long as Trump wins.

Heraclitusstudent says

1% of 70% of the US population is 2.2 millions dead.
This is totally irrelevant, as long as Trump wins.

It's not a flat percentage like that though. As more of the easily susceptible die from it, the less there are to kill.

There's no way this kills 2.2 million(s?) this year. Not a chance. Given the death rate, everyone here would have to personally know 3-4 people with it to hit those numbers.

I'm also astonished how much faith everyone puts in the medical field. Apparently some of you haven't been misdiagnosed on major health issues? I was misdiagnosed with a relatively severe issue for months when I was 20. It wouldn't have killed me, but multiple doctors misdiagnosed and it was mother fucking painful. Highly acclaimed clinics and hospitals. These people are humans and make mistakes. Some are even idiots and just had book smarts to get where they are and rely on others to cover their flaws. Like any other work or industry.

WookieMan says

There's no way this kills 2.2 million(s?) this year. Not a chance.

Thanks to measures that will shave 25% of US GDP.

Heraclitusstudent says

Thanks to measures that will shave 25% of US GDP.

I think it has more to do with the fact that the virus has already burned through much of the country (at least the West Coast) and we are already getting some herd immunity.

Check out how much higher the hospitalizations for flu like symptoms were this flu season going back to November/December of last year. I am betting alot of this was due to the Wuhan virus.

Heraclitusstudent says

WookieMan says

There's no way this kills 2.2 million(s?) this year. Not a chance.

Thanks to measures that will shave 25% of US GDP.

That will end up killing 2.2M, not from CV-19. Yeaaaaaa! Victory!

WookieMan says

There's no way this kills 2.2 million(s?) this year. Not a chance.

The anti-Trumpers are going to be disappointed.

The major effect of the virus: The scary headlines of "millions" of Americans dying are going to keep the country closed for months, not weeks, which will may finally lead to systemic economic problems. That, alone, could hasten the death of of the 2.8 MM people who die every year in the USA.

SunnyvaleCA says

WookieMan says

There's no way this kills 2.2 million(s?) this year. Not a chance.

The anti-Trumpers are going to be disappointed.

The major effect of the virus: The scary headlines of "millions" of Americans dying are going to keep the country closed for months, not weeks, which will may finally lead to systemic economic problems. That, alone, could hasten the death of of the 2.8 MM people who die every year in the USA.

I actually don't care about Trump in this. I actually think he's been too heavy handed. If you need a ventilator you're basically dead. Your body couldn't handle this virus. Not being able to breath generally leads to death. Still don't understand the point of overwhelming the hospitals with the already dead. Give them oxygen at home and if they make it, they would have anyway.

Still waiting to hear from my nurse friends of people walking up to the door not able to breath. They've had positive tests, but there's nothing remotely alarming about the situation here in rural IL. Maybe it gets worse, but I haven't hung out with friends or family now for 16 days and most others I know haven't as well. We've got no symptoms, so I'd guess we're in the clear. I really do think this starts going away by Easter.

joshuatrio says

There was a child at my kids school who's parent got it.

But was it a tested confirmed case, or just someone who thinks they have it?

The paranoia is off the charts. And it's attention-seeking behavior.

Patrick says

But was it a tested confirmed case, or just someone who thinks they have it?

Yeah, my BIL is convinced that he had it last December and his uncle also thinks that he and his wife had it in early January. No evidence either way, but reasoning is futile: people are gonna believe what they want to believe.

Tenpoundbass says

Zika, SARS, MERS, N1H1, Avian Flu, or any of the other ones.

I remember the first winter I lived in Dallas, 1967/1968, started working for Lone Star Gas Co. 11/29/67. After New Year's I came down with the flu (I don't know what it was called that year), I thought I was going to die I felt so bad, missed about three days of work as a new hire. Got over and have never had a flu again, but have taken the shot in the years it was considered to be so bad. I think it was in 1976 that they had special centers for the Swine flu. A few years ago they had a big set up for shots for one of the strains. When I got to the door of the room, every seat was taken. But they were super organized down to the last detail and I walked out 35 minutes later.

socal2 says

I am betting alot of this was due to the Wuhan virus.

That is interesting. They've been saying it's a bad flu year. We should know eventually, if you are right.

Btw, that graph goes through 3/11 I wonder how high it is now.

Patrick says

But was it a tested confirmed case, or just someone who thinks they have it?

Pretty sure the email said it was confirmed. But I wouldn't be surprised if it was an overreacting parent.

Covid-19 will be deadly until long after it isn't, because it is the ultimate totalitarian excuse!

True, there are whopping huge motives to exaggerate the threat.

Whelp,

Someone at my 150 person workplace got it. He got it from his wife we think, who works in a totally unrelated field and workplace. He may have passed it to one other co worker. Both are now quarantined in their homes.

People here are unnecessarily spazzing. We’ve had under 40 cases and only one hospitalization for around 15,000 employees. I keep telling everyone it doesn’t really matter if their kids get it. There’s still no confirmed US deaths under 10 years of age, but everyone’s got a “ iheard it from a cousin whose friends grandmothers grandson in law died” story. Everyone old or health compromised is already off work except a couple old unreasonably stubborn mules. Nearly everyone else is young and even if they get it nothing’s happening. But the emotional rumor mill is harsh and doesn’t seem to want to die.

www.youtube.com/embed/rcKFtyy1FPM

Ceffer says

Covid-19 will be deadly until long after it isn't, because it is the ultimate totalitarian excuse!

It really is the ultimate totalitarian excuse.

Who can argue with a pandemic?

"... it’s always a simple matter to drag the people along whether it’s a democracy, a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship. Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism, and exposing the country to greater danger.”

— Herman Goering at the Nuremberg trials

Patrick says

All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism, and exposing the country to greater danger.”

Heard on the radio the other day, "Stay inside! Not just for your safety but so you don't endanger those around you."

Anecdotal but nevertheless...

I know 2 people with corona. One is a doctor in early 60's, nothing other than a medium severity cold; second is a student on whose committee I was 2 weeks ago. He is in late 20's and went to mobile testing station and was diagnosed with corona as well. A light cold with fever after a few days of runny nose and light cough. He was hanging around university, so I last saw him 11 days ago when he should have been infectious. I guess I need to wait a few more days to see if I caught the bug. Another student of mine who is a nurse has to work yuuge overtime, but says that situation in hospitals is very controllable and there is no overcrowding, breakdowns, or panic, other than paranoids trying to get tested for sneezing.

Onvacation says

Heard on the radio the other day, "Stay inside! Not just for your safety but so you don't endanger those around you."

Guilt is also a great motivator.

"You're so selfish!"

For not wanting to be unemployed and poverty-stricken.

The key is that most of the people in power and most billionaires are 70+ years old. They are happy to fuck the world to try to save themselves. That is, to save their last couple of years.

Save the World and Social Security! Cough on OldFucks and Boomers!

rd6B says

other than paranoids trying to get tested for sneezing.

I don't care how well hospitals clean everything, it's these hypochondriacs that go get it at the hospital and bring it back to communities. If you're sick, don't leave the house unless it's in an ambulance because you feel that sick. Stop having panic attacks over what could be the common cold OR could actually be corona, but your body will fight it.

Don't go near old/weak people. Probably for a TBD amount of time. 3 months? Masks might help, but it's relatively mundane for those under 50. The flu statistically will end up killing more under the age of 50.

This is so weird.... 3. 2. 1....... bring on the experts that need 12-18 months to make a semi-effective vaccine...

WookieMan says

these hypochondriacs that go get it at the hospital

Now it seems that half of all medical revenues in the US were from exactly those hypochondriacs showing up all the time when they weren't really sick.

Man, the whole medical system is going to be in trouble without them.

Off the subject, I my older brother 69 has a little asthma and is overweight. He's a nurse practitioner and is paid to talk to people about things, like a dollar store shrink, his supervisor is a shrink. He's in the NYC area.

So his boss said he would be useful working in an ICU somewhere and he didn't want to.

His boss is an MD and must be aware a guy 69 with asthma and overweight is in a risk group, but they were gonna send him in there anyway.

To Patrick's point above, I see in older female widows I know in Florida the same level of panic and desire to control everyone's behavior because they are afraid.

Whether they are reasonable is very doubtful, but they have their pensions and social security and paid for houses and only had to stop eating in restaurants and can't take cruises any more, too bad.

Facebook is deadly if I look at it because they're always posting blessings, prayers, and etc. while complaining about the young spring breakers etc.

Patrick says

Now it seems that half of all medical revenues in the US were from exactly those hypochondriacs showing up all the time when they weren't really sick.

One of the reasons I oppose Medicare-for-all kinda bullshit: I don't want to be taxed up to eyeballs so some hypochondriac fucks with too much time on their hands can go hang out at the clinic.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The-evidence-on-Covid-19-is-not-as-clear-as-we-think

If a new infection is causing many extra people to die (as opposed to an infection present in people who would have died anyway) then it will cause an increase in the overall death rate. But we have yet to see any statistical evidence for excess deaths, in any part of the world.

Covid-19 can clearly cause serious respiratory tract compromise in some patients, especially those with chest issues, and in smokers. The elderly are probably more at risk, as they are for infections of any kind. The average age of those dying in Italy is 78.5 years, with almost nine in ten fatalities among the over-70s. The life expectancy in Italy — that is, the number of years you can expect to live to from birth, all things being equal — is 82.5 years. ...

Much of the response to Covid-19 seems explained by the fact that we are watching this virus in a way that no virus has been watched before. The scenes from the Italian hospitals have been shocking, and make for grim television. But television is not science. ...

Clearly, the various lockdowns will slow the spread of Covid-19 so there will be fewer cases. When we relax the measures, there will be more cases again. But this need not be a reason to keep the lockdown: the spread of cases is only something to fear if we are dealing with an unusually lethal virus. That’s why the way we record data will be hugely important. Unless we tighten criteria for recording death due only to the virus (as opposed to it being present in those who died from other conditions), the official figures may show a lot more deaths apparently caused by the virus than is actually the case.

Estimates are now up to 80% of cases could be asymptomatic. Many people who thought they never had test positive for antibodies. It's very infectious but not very deadly. Still a conundrum since it's new and nobody had built up immunity so it spreads quickly.

Patrick says

If a new infection is causing many extra people to die (as opposed to an infection present in people who would have died anyway) then it will cause an increase in the overall death rate

Bergamo, IT:

Deaths of residents only:


Deaths of residents and non-residents:


Deaths in the Nembro community (blue - average # of deaths 2015-19, red - all deaths in 2020, green - death officially recognized as caused by COVID-19 ):


Deaths per 1000 in various communities in Bergamo:



Deaths per day in Bergamo region: