Please log in to view images

« prev   random   next »

0
0

Democrats No Longer Dismiss Bernie Sanders’s Odds

By OccasionalCortex follow OccasionalCortex   2020 Jan 13, 3:29pm 229 views   10 comments   watch   nsfw   quote   share    


If he won Iowa, the party might unite behind an Anybody But Bernie candidate.

In 2019, Sanders raised an eye-popping $100 million. The grassroots he cultivated in Iowa and New Hampshire four years ago have vaulted him into first place in both states in the RealClearPolitics average of all polls.

A variation of the Sanders campaign was just tried in Britain, where Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn ran on an unabashedly left-wing manifesto that included government-funded middle-class benefits ranging from free broadband to subsidized commuter-train tickets. Corbyn, a 70-year-old whose scratchy personality resembles that of Sanders, did well with young voters, winning 55 percent of voters under age 30, compared with only 22 percent for the opposition Conservatives. But among older voters he bombed, winning only 35 percent of those between ages 40 and 50. Among voters over 70, his party won a ghastly 14 percent.

But what counts in becoming a party leader or nominee is not how you do with voters in general but with your party’s base. Corbyn had a fanatical following within the “loony Left” portions of his party, and that enabled him to become leader in a party-membership election in 2015.

Similarly, Sanders has a fan base with college students, public-sector union members, and aging hippies. In 2016, that coalition was enough to win him 50 percent of the Iowa-caucus vote against Hillary Clinton. He has retained about half of that running in Iowa’s current multi-candidate field.

Nate Silver, the political analyst at FiveThirtyEight, has developed a model of the Democratic race that forecasts that, should Joe Biden lose Iowa, he has only a 20 percent chance of a delegate majority, with Sanders’s odds of becoming the nominee going up to 40 percent.

That prospect sends shivers down the spine of establishment Democrats. “We all know the opposition research that Trump could throw against Bernie,” one Democratic pollster told me. “It runs from his rigid left-wing voting record to the fact that he was so delusional as to honeymoon in the Soviet Union in the year before the Berlin Wall fell and when it was obvious the system was evil.”

Establishment Democrats believe that they still have a good chance to stop Bernie even if he does win Iowa. They say the party might come together under an Anybody But Bernie candidate. They also point out that under Silver’s model scenario where Bernie wins Iowa, there would be a decent chance that no one would come to the convention with a majority of delegates. In that event, on the second ballot, a group of party elders, or superdelegates, would be allowed to vote, and Bernie would likely be their last choice.

“The GOP establishment couldn’t stop Trump from winning the nomination in 2016, but they have different rules,” a former aide to President Obama told me in an interview. “We would be able to stop Bernie, but then we might have a different problem: convincing his angry supporters not to stay home in the race against Trump.”


https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/01/democrats-no-longer-dismiss-bernie-sanderss-odds/

2   Onvacation   ignore (5)   2020 Jan 13, 4:53pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

The debate Trump would have with Bernie is the debate America has been having with "capitalism" vs socialism..

Our system is currently so corrupt the the term "Crony Capitalism" describes it. The interest of government is business and not the people they "represent". I would like to think that some of the people in government are genuine and sincerely want to MAGA but reality points to the continuation of the ponzi scheme we call an economy and the unprosecuted corruption in all levels of government.

I hope Trump is not just another actor on the stage of the political theatre. Ever notice how many actors end up politicians?

Capitalism or socialism? I vote for the one that let's me thrive from the sweat of my brow and the work of my hands not the one that stifles incentive with bureaucracy and impoverishes the masses.
3   NoCoupForYou   ignore (5)   2020 Jan 13, 5:22pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

If Bernie is the Nominee, then there's no doubt Trump wins Election.
4   Ceffer   ignore (4)   2020 Jan 13, 5:37pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I think I'll start manufacturing Blue Bernie caps that read: "Make America Venezuela Again!" Should be a sellout in NY and Cali.
5   willywonka   ignore (5)   2020 Jan 13, 6:29pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

White army or Red army, comrade?
6   Onvacation   ignore (5)   2020 Jan 13, 6:48pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

willywonka says
White army or Red army, comrade?


Don't you mean red or blue? Who ever decided that the dems get to be blue any way?

But I do like red, just not in my cars or motorcycles.
7   HeadSet   ignore (3)   2020 Jan 13, 7:32pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Onvacation says
willywonka says
White army or Red army, comrade?


Don't you mean red or blue? Who ever decided that the dems get to be blue any way?

But I do like red, just not in my cars or motorcycles.


I think willywonka was referring to the Russian 1917 situation, where "white" was the Republic. "red" was the commies.
8   HeadSet   ignore (3)   2020 Jan 13, 7:34pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

NoCoupForYou says
If Bernie is the Nominee, then there's no doubt Trump wins Election.


Let me fix that for you - If Any Current Dem Contender is the Nominee, then there's no doubt Trump wins Election.
9   NoCoupForYou   ignore (5)   2020 Jan 13, 7:51pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Bernie Sanders is literally the most deeply honest human being I've ever met.

He's honest when it costs him politically.

He did not and would not say a woman cannot be President.

He has said clearly today that he did not say it.

He has said the opposite since I was a child.

— Shaun King (@shaunking) January 14, 2020
10   Onvacation   ignore (5)   2020 Jan 14, 5:45am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

HeadSet says

I think willywonka was referring to the Russian 1917 situation, where "white" was the Republic. "red" was the commies.

Ya think?
I don't think there will be a shooting war in America. At least not until the blues (reds) take away some of the reds (whites) guns. See the confusion the dems have caused by claiming blue?

about   best comments   contact   one year ago   suggestions