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China: No Longer the Wave of the Future


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2019 Apr 9, 8:08am   3,994 views  53 comments

by cmdrda2leak   ➕follow (1)   💰tip   ignore  


Not too long ago the West was breezily talking of China as if the 1989 Tiananmen Square debacle and its aftermath that saw the Chinese government kill some 10,000 protesters and dissidents was a mere speed bump on the fated way to Chinese democracy and an open society. Beltway wisdom was that any year China could experience a moment akin to the collapse of the Berlin Wall.

Then status quo elite thinking in Washington was that even if the Chinese ran up huge deficits, treated their trading partners in ruthless fashion, jailed critics in a vast gulag archipelago, and mimicked the colonialism and imperialism of the former Japanese Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere of the late 1930s and 1940s, Beijing, nonetheless, would inevitably translate its new affluence and self-confidence into free elections and eventual liberal society — or at least become a benign world hegemon. After all, its high-speed rail, its solar-panel factories, and modern airports wowed American pundits — as if China offered a model of green modern authoritarianism that could supersede Neanderthal resistance to green central planners. A Chinese Carmel or Upper West Side was always proverbially right around the corner.

Just as it had been awed by Western money and technology, surely China would be even more wowed by Western magnanimity and so reciprocate by mimicking Western political and cultural institutions.

That fantasy has dissipated as Donald Trump shattered its glass veneer. The vision of China as always on the cusp of consensual government was always about as accurate as the old American dreams that the more powerful imperial Japan became in the early 20th century, the more apt Tokyo would be to assume a role as a sober and judicious Westernized protector of global norms. Again, ahistorical groupthink, fueled by globalist nonsense, simply ignored Chinese history and culture.

***

Groupthink explains radical transformations in conventional wisdom and received opinion. The status of China should always have been pretty clear: The Chinese government was a Communist autocracy with a long history of mass murder, racial and religious intolerance, and hatred of democracy — whether it lived hand to mouth in Maoist times or befooled naïve journalists and buccaneer corporatists who bragged about its shiny new infrastructure.

What changed was not the essence of China, but its superficial veneer, which tricked the gullible or conniving Westerners into assuming its fascist brand of capitalism led to riches and on to eventual freedom.

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2   Goran_K   2019 Apr 9, 8:29am  

When it was revealed that they had been over reporting their GDP growth for over a decade, the veneer was was removed.
3   Rin   2019 Apr 9, 8:50am  

The best way to highlight this opinion piece is to link to another 'Asian Century' one.

Kakistocracy says ...

http://patrick.net/post/1323498/2019-03-28-the-asian-century-is-set-to-begin

The Asian century is set to begin - The region was the envy of Europe in 17th century and the world is about to turn full circle.

Asian economies, as defined by Unctad, will be larger than the rest of the world combined in 2020, for the first time since the 19th century
Economists, political scientists and emerging market pundits have been talking for decades about the coming of the Asian Age, which will supposedly mark an inflection point when the continent becomes the new centre of the world.

Asia is already home to more than half the world’s population. Of the world’s 30 largest cities, 21 are in Asia, according to UN data.
By next year, Asia will also become home to half of the world’s middle class, defined as those living in households with daily per capita incomes of between $10 and $100 at 2005 purchasing power parity (PPP).

Since 2007, Asians have been buying more cars and trucks than people in any other region — by about 2030 they will be buying as many vehicles as the rest of the world combined, according to LMC Automotive.

Leaders in the region are beginning to talk more openly about the shift. “Now the continent finds itself at the centre of global economic activity,” Narendra Modi, prime minister of India, told the last annual meeting of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. “It has become the main growth engine of the world. In fact, we are now living through what many have termed the Asian Century,” he said.

So when will the Asian Age actually begin?

The Financial Times tallied the data, and found that Asian economies, as defined by the UN trade and development body Unctad, will be larger than the rest of the world combined in 2020, for the first time since the 19th century. The Asian century, the numbers show, begins next year.
To put this in perspective, Asia accounted for just over a third of world output in 2000.

To make its calculations, the FT examined IMF data based on gross domestic product after adjusting for price differences in different countries.

This method, which assesses economies by PPP, is widely considered the most relevant measure as it takes into account what people can actually buy in developing countries where prices are often cheaper.

Even at market exchange value, Asia still accounts for 38 per cent of global output, up from 26 per cent in the early 2000s.
4   Rin   2019 Apr 9, 8:53am  

Kakistocracy says
The Asian century is set to begin


First of all, Asia is what? ... People's Republic of China, India, Korea, Japan, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, Indonesia, Taiwan, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Nepal, Brunei, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, etc.

If anything, those are disparate nation-states with differing languages, races, and cultures.

So if you mean by Asian Century that yes, the regions of the world with the highest population density plus working centers will net a higher income than ever before then you're correct. On the other hand, why are so many mainland Chinese trying to move their money through private banks in Singapore? Is it because on some level, they don't trust their own nation-state to protect their assets?

If anything, Asia shares no common race or culture. Indians are a mix of Aryan/Dravidian races; Chinese are Chinese; Koreans are Koreans, etc.

=====



At this point in time, there are three first world nations in Asia, if you exclude Taiwan since it's not fully independent. Those nations are Singapore, South Korea, and Japan.

Still, despite their first world status, many Singaporeans, Koreans, and Japanese still opt for study or work in the US, UK, or Canada. In fact, the University of Chicago opened a 2nd business school in Singapore to take advantage of the demand. The problem is that U of C needs a better name, since its namesake is overly connected to the Windy City.

So until east Asia becomes the destination for world scholars, etc, and not just a place full of highly insular nation-states and ethnicities, the most the Asian century will be, is a period of economic prosperity where less ppl live in favelas than in prior times.

====
5   Rin   2019 Apr 9, 8:53am  

Rin says
Kakistocracy says


Judging by this pic, you would think that Asians were homogeneously Chinese or at best ... a blend of the ppl of the northeast.

Here are some of the other nationalities in the region ...

India



Thailand



So until all these nations are federalized under one govt, it's a multi-polar region and for the most part, a lot of ppl will resist the PRC's attempt at controlling 'em. At the end of the Vietnam conflict, with the Americans out, even Vietnam fought PRC at their border region circa 1979.
6   Rin   2019 Apr 9, 8:54am  

[ continuation on the photo ]

When you see the pic above, it's basically a pic of Chinese culture, not including the fact that Asia has many cultures.

Unless one is living under a rock, PRC and India are not exactly best of friends and neither are many of the other nations to the middle kingdom. With that in mind, sure, economically, a lot of work goes on in Asia which by nature, will raise standards of living and bring prosperity to those nations just as it did for South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan during the 70s and 80s.

Still, despite each nation getting a bigger slice of the pie, the Vietnamese, Thais, Filipinos, Indians, etc, will not take marching orders from Beijing. Why do you think that the US and Singapore are so close? It's because Singapore is flanked by two Islamic states, Malaysia & Indonesia, and needed all the protection that it can get from a possible invasion. These rivalries didn't just start a few years back. It's been an ongoing thing throughout the Cold War and the years after it.

In contrast, aside from hockey & soccer, the US and Canada are pretty much on the same page, along with the UK, Netherlands, Belgium, etc. And thus, it was possible for a long term post-WWII alliance to occur in the so-called west with both economic and military ties. If India and PRC start to perform jointed military ventures then the article is possibly correct and there could be an 'Asian' century. Otherwise, no, these are rival nations and so while the general populace will experience a higher standard of living, it will not be a true Pan Asian alliance.
7   Rin   2019 Apr 9, 8:54am  

Here's the thing ... it's not about China (PRC). This article has confused the economic rise of the Asia-Pacific rim (plus South Asia) to that of a culture or nationality called 'Asian'.

When ppl talk about the American Century, it's about the United States of America, its associated NATO allies, and the world in general, as a result of the power of the USA.

Yes, in the middle, is the USA, one nation, one flag.

In contrast, the nations of Asia-Pacific rim (plus South Asia) do not trust the PRC as some sort of spiritual leader for the entire region. And thus, as the entire region grows in wealth, there will be sabre rattling among its member nations, indicating that it's not one common bloc like the EEC a/o USA/NATO during that past half century. No one, esp if one's an independent nation, wants to be some vassal of the Beijing govt. In fact, it can even be argued that Singapore with its 75+% Chinese ethnic population is the independent (but displaced) China of Southeast Asia, unlike let's say Hong Kong/Macau or Taiwan.
8   FortWayneAsNancyPelosiHaircut   2019 Apr 9, 8:58am  

They are still fucking us
9   Heraclitusstudent   2019 Apr 9, 11:47am  

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-04-09/china-spying-the-internet-s-underwater-cables-are-next?srnd=premium

Another key element, one that’s far harder to discern, is Beijing’s increasing influence in constructing and repairing the undersea cables that move virtually all the information on the internet. To understand the totality of China’s “Great Game” at sea, you have to look down to ocean floor.

While people tend think of satellites and cell towers as the heart of the internet, the most vital component is the 380 submerged cables that carry more than 95 percent of all data and voice traffic between the continents. They were built largely by the U.S. and its allies, ensuring that (from a Western perspective, at least) they were “cleanly” installed without built-in espionage capability available to our opponents. U.S. internet giants including Google, Facebook and Amazon are leasing or buying vast stretches of cables from the mostly private consortia of telecom operators that constructed them.

But now the Chinese conglomerate Huawei Technologies, the leading firm working to deliver 5G telephony networks globally, has gone to sea. Under its Huawei Marine Networks component, it is constructing or improving nearly 100 submarine cables around the world. Last year it completed a cable stretching nearly 4,000 miles from Brazil to Cameroon. (The cable is partly owned by China Unicorn, a state-controlled telecom operator.) Rivals claim that Chinese firms are able to lowball the bidding because they receive subsidies from Beijing.
10   AD   2019 Apr 10, 9:55pm  

About 93% of China is ethnic Han. Talk about racial superiority like Nazi Germany.
11   Heraclitusstudent   2019 Apr 25, 12:52pm  

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-25/kyle-bass-steve-bannon
“Corporate America is the lobbying arm for the Chinese Communist Party, and Wall Street is the investor relations department,” Bannon said at a conference Thursday
12   MisdemeanorRebel   2019 Apr 25, 1:57pm  

AD says
About 93% of China is ethnic Han. Talk about racial superiority like Nazi Germany.


Yep, and they're Sinofying the Xiakiang region. Uighurs are being purged and/or re-educated, Han Chinese are encouraged to migrate there and Han Administrators have all the power.
13   kt1652   2019 Apr 25, 2:33pm  

Rin says
The best way to highlight this opinion piece is to link to another 'Asian Century' one.

Kakistocracy says ...

http://patrick.net/post/1323498/2019-03-28-the-asian-century-is-set-to-begin

The Asian century is set to begin - The region was the envy of Europe in 17th century and the world is about to turn full circle.

Asian economies, as defined by Unctad, will be larger than the rest of the world combined in 2020, for the first time since the 19th century
Economists, political scientists and emerging market pundits have been talking for decades about the coming of the Asian Age, which will supposedly mark an inflection point when the continent becomes the new centre of the world.

Asia is already home to more than half the world’s population. Of the world’s 30 largest cities, 21 are in Asia, according to UN data.
By next year, Asia will also become home to h...

The data does not agree with your assertion.
china GDP is bigger than the next 3 Asian biggies combined, Japan, india, S. Korea.
Technology wise China is the undisputed 800 lb gorilla of Asian, maybe the world if youth educational trend continue.
(Chinese parent spend 25% of their income on education, mostly one child family.)
The disturbing truth is, just about any C grade 4- 11th grade student from China will be math stars in USA schools.
This is the other inconvenient truth.
14   cmdrda2leak   2019 Apr 25, 2:40pm  


maybe the world if youth educational trend continue.
(Chinese parent spend 25% of their income on education, mostly one child family.)
The disturbing truth is, just about any C grade 4- 11th grade student from China will be math stars in USA schools.


Uh huhhh... maybe some math stars but not especially brilliant in the language and grammar skills department, apparently?

15   kt1652   2019 Apr 25, 2:44pm  

you are funny, maybe unintentional way.
Let's ask the average Murican restaurant worker to write in another language.
No, just ask them to write in English. lol
16   cmdrda2leak   2019 Apr 25, 2:47pm  

kt1652 says
you are funny, maybe unintentional way.
Let's ask the average Murican restaurant worker to write in another language.
No, just ask them to write in English. lol


In California, they all speak Spanish.
17   kt1652   2019 Apr 25, 2:51pm  

My current role is in education, CC level technology program.
I will tell you the average student think simple algebra is high level math.
Most cannot comprehend a low level technical paper.
Alarming proportions cannot write English for entry level professional work.
18   Rin   2019 Apr 25, 3:18pm  

kt1652 says
Technology wise China is the undisputed 800 lb gorilla of Asian, maybe the world if youth educational trend continue.


kt1652 says
The disturbing truth is, just about any C grade 4- 11th grade student from China will be math stars in USA schools.


Perhaps you need to travel to Asia-Pacific, and see how ppl really think. The ppl of Asia do not have this glowing opinion of mainland China.

As for STEM, there are countless math quizzes, even the USA, who're stuck doing postdocs and in adjunct prof positions. Remember, I have degree in Applied Chemistry/Chemical Engineering but I made my money in financial services, not STEM work.

The truth here is that no one else in Asia, including an ethnically majority Chinese in Singapore, wants to be a PRC national. Why do ppl from Singapore, Malaysia, Japan, Korea, India, etc, want a degree from England (Oxford, Cambridge, London) or USA (MIT, Stanford, Duke. Ivies), and not one from Beijing University? It's simple, no one trusts China (PRC) and sees it as some authoritarian regional dictatorship, stealing resources from everyone around it.

So unless China invades and subjugates all of Asia-Pacific under its thumb, places like the USA (& what's left of the west) will still exert its influence over the region.
19   Heraclitusstudent   2019 Apr 25, 3:24pm  

Rin says
So unless China invades and subjugates all of Asia-Pacific under its thumb, places like the USA (& what's left of the west) will still exert its influence over the region.

They sit next to China. China by its cheer size will dominate the region politically and economically. Their influence will range from monetary help, to economic collaborations, to military invasion.
The US "influence" will be likely be truncated quickly to just "cultural" influence, kind of like England whose Universities are so looked after. Though the US doesn't really have a culture, beyond shopping habits.
It's gonna be a sad story.
20   Heraclitusstudent   2019 Apr 25, 3:28pm  

kt1652 says
The disturbing truth is, just about any C grade 4- 11th grade student from China will be math stars in USA schools.

Even if they aren't... there will still be x4 more.
21   Rin   2019 Apr 25, 3:29pm  

Heraclitusstudent says
They sit next to China. China by its cheer size will dominate the region politically and economically. Their influence will range from monetary help, to economic collaborations, to military invasion.
The US "influence" will be likely be truncated quickly to just "cultural" influence, kind of like England whose Universities are so looked after. Except well... the US doesn't really have a culture beyond shopping habits.


Here's the difference, there are rich ppl in Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, and the list goes on, who don't want their capital and resources confiscated by PRC. Trust me, I'd lived through the early 2000s, where many Singaporean/Malay ventures got ripped off by PRC tactics on the mainland.

None of them want that albatross around their necks forever. And since it's obvious you haven't been to Asia-Pacific, shopping is a huge part of life from Singapore, through Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, and Japan.
22   Rin   2019 Apr 25, 3:30pm  

Heraclitusstudent says
Even if they aren't... there will still be x4 more.


Doesn't matter, ppl like us make our money in finance not STEM.
23   Heraclitusstudent   2019 Apr 25, 3:34pm  

Singapore is puny. What they like or not doesn't matter.
Singapore + Malaysia + Thailand + Korea + Japan is divided.
It's a bit like saying South American countries will not let the US control the American continent.
24   Heraclitusstudent   2019 Apr 25, 3:36pm  

zero hedge has more on Bannon and Bass:

"All the pressure on Trump to strike a trade deal is coming from Wall Street and corporate America," Bass argued. "Look who fought CFIUS reform...some of the biggest companies in the US and Wall Street came together to fight it. Steve is right about who's fighting...it's corporate America fighting to get Trump to do a deal...and China plays that card and they play it better than anyone else...they open a market to very specific people to court influence."

"Look at what they're doing...they have a geopolitical strategy to unite theEurasian land mass into one single market then to force the United States out of the Western Pacific then out of the Pacific overall. The radical cadre - this is not the Chinese people - this is about a radical cadre that is taking charge of the Communist Party led by President Xi...they've been running an economic war against the industrial democracies for 20 years."

And by the way, the funding -- the entire operation of the Chinese Communist Party and what they’re running in China is being funded by Wall Street, which Kyle can walk through, being funded by Wall Street. And corporate America – remember, PBS or NPR had this thing the other day about intrusions into stealing Intellectual Property in American companies. They talked to a Treasury official went around to 200 companies. Not one company would -- had been stolen from would press charges because they didn’t want to be blocked out of China. Corporate America today is the lobbying arm of the Chinese Communist Party and Wall Street is the investor relations department. You can see this on President Trump’s -- on President Trump’s trade negotiation, which I say is an armistice on the economic war. When Liu He comes to the United States, where does he go first?"

"Now we have a whole of government approach to really confront China on an economic war, this has never happened...the permanent political class and their paymasters on Wall Street have owned the political dialogue."

I think some people are starting to smell the coffee and wake up, but most are still focused on short term interests.
25   Rin   2019 Apr 25, 3:41pm  

Heraclitusstudent says
Singapore is puny. What they like or not doesn't matter.


Singapore is right now, one of the major private banking centers in the world. More and more Chinese money is flowing through there than anywhere else.

Heraclitusstudent says
Singapore + Malaysia + Thailand + Korea + Japan is divided.
It's a bit like saying South American countries will not let the US control the American continent.


Sorry but your Monroe Doctrine analogy, which is specific to the New World, where the USA was the first independent country, doesn't work. Many South Americans prefer to study and possibly re-locate to Uncle Sam. And yes, as a result, the US is struggling to incorporate Spanish as a 2nd language, In contrast, no one wants to live in PRC. And PRC does not accept any other group of ppl aside from Han Chinese.

PRC is seen as a regional oppressor, not an ally of any sorts.
26   Heraclitusstudent   2019 Apr 25, 3:45pm  

Rin says
Doesn't matter, ppl like us make our money in finance not STEM.


China left the US finance while the ate manufacturing. Manufacturing the key to industries, control of technologies and skills.
Once they are done they will move to finance.
Deriving monetary income from the work of others is a nice trick while they let you do it.
27   Heraclitusstudent   2019 Apr 25, 3:51pm  

Rin says
Singapore is right now, one of the major private banking centers in the world. More and more Chinese money is flowing through there than anywhere else.

That makes them an attractive target.
The Templars were financing Philip IV of France, he was heavily in their debt.
Until one day he wiped them out, and burnt their leaders at the stake.
28   Rin   2019 Apr 25, 3:54pm  

Heraclitusstudent says
Once they are done they will move to finance.


If PRC maintains its tight control over financial flows then this won't happen.

Ask yourself why ... 1 square mile in London's center city, for 5 centuries, have been able to make Britain as financial center? It's because it was a tax free/open money laundering zone for much of the world. Even today, this goes on.

If the City of London (separate from Metro/Greater London) stops this, the UK will be a 3rd world nation within a single generation. Instead, despite the great collapse of a massive overseas empire, since 1948, is still functioning as one of the world's G-5.

No one will launder their cash, through the PRC.
29   kt1652   2019 Apr 25, 3:55pm  

Rin says
Heraclitusstudent says
Even if they aren't... there will still be x4 more.


Doesn't matter, ppl like us make our money in finance not STEM.

About Rin again?
30   Heraclitusstudent   2019 Apr 25, 3:58pm  

Rin says
If the City of London (separate from Metro/Greater London) stops this, the UK will be a 3rd world nation within a single generation. Instead, despite the great collapse of a massive overseas empire, since 1948, is still functioning as one of the world's G-5.

The last refuge for people who have lost everything else that mattered.
31   kt1652   2019 Apr 25, 4:00pm  

Remind me again how money changers create innovative products print way out of deficits?
32   Rin   2019 Apr 25, 4:00pm  

Heraclitusstudent says
The last refuge for people who have lost everything else that mattered.


Yep, which is why rich Asians (all countries, not just PRC) won't park their cash with Beijing Inc.
33   Heraclitusstudent   2019 Apr 25, 4:05pm  

Rin says
Singapore is right now, one of the major private banking centers in the world.


Switzerland is probably the one country that has been able to stay durably in their banking position.
Their mountains are a fortress full of military purpose tunnels, every adult male has a gun at home and stands ready to use it.
Hitler didn't attack Switzerland for a reason.
I doubt Singapore can pull out the same.
34   Rin   2019 Apr 25, 4:11pm  

Heraclitusstudent says
I doubt Singapore can pull out the same.


Ok, so then I await the invasion, not only of Singapore (with its 75+% ethnic Chinese majority) but that entire region between Vietnam-Thailand and Indonesia by the PRC army to control the region. Remember, Vietnam also resisted PRC back in 1979.

If that occurs, and NATO (formerly SEATO) completely concedes defeat, then you're right, PRC is the new Emperor of the new millennia.

Until then, it sounds like a lot of sabre rattling by a regionally unpopular govt, trying to manipulate and brow beat their neighbors into shoddy business arrangements.
35   kt1652   2019 Apr 25, 4:17pm  

Singapore, I like Singapore a lot great food multi culture very interesting place, but really. I can bicycle across Singapore in one day
36   Rin   2019 Apr 25, 4:21pm  

kt1652 says
Singapore, I like Singapore a lot great food multi culture very interesting place, but really. I can bicycle across Singapore in one day


Think of it as Hong Kong 2, the actual independent Chinese country within Asia-Pacific but English speaking with Mandarin (not Cantonese) as a primary 2nd language.

Since Hong Kong fell to PRC in 1997, Singapore has become that unofficial independent Chinese city-state. One of my former colleague emigrated from HK to Singapore during the past decade.
37   kt1652   2019 Apr 25, 4:22pm  

Yeah and China can snuff out Hong Kong like a bug
38   Rin   2019 Apr 25, 4:25pm  

kt1652 says
Yeah and China can snuff out Hong Kong like a bug


For the most part, it already did. HK is no longer a free city-state and everyone there knows it.

If PRC invades Singapore, HK2, then it's an act of war, which will involve NATO/SEATO and anyone else who cares about SE Asia.
39   Heraclitusstudent   2019 Apr 25, 4:35pm  

They don't need to invade either HK or Singapore. They just need to set the rules to their advantage.

"To win one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the acme of skill. To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill."
40   Rin   2019 Apr 25, 4:56pm  

Heraclitusstudent says
They don't need to invade either HK or Singapore


HK was invaded, post 1997, if you haven't noticed.

Singapore is not a peninsular region of China. Instead, it's the peninsular island, at the tail end of Malaysia, and was granted independence back in the early 60s. And thus, it operated much like any other country like Luxembourg, Andorra, or Belize.

So if Singapore plays the City of London game long term then yes, China will have to invade to stop 'em.

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