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Chinese Paper Tiger: China found to be over reporting it's GDP for past decade


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2019 Mar 11, 2:13pm   2,012 views  6 comments

by Goran_K   ➕follow (4)   💰tip   ignore  

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/business/chinas-gdp-growth-pace-was-inflated-for-nine-years-study-finds/articleshow/68330636.cms


China over-reported its economic growth between 2008 and 2016 by an average of 1.7 percentage points, according to a recent study by researchers at the Chinese University of Hong Kong and the University of Chicago.

The discrepancy came from local governments who are rewarded for meeting growth and investment targets, the authors say in a draft paper published by the Brookings Institution. The Beijing-based National Bureau of Statistics, knowing such manipulation well, has been adjusting ..



No wonder they seem willing to deal with Trump, looks like they have a much weaker hand than previously thought.

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1   Goran_K   2019 Mar 11, 4:22pm  

Leftism is simply not that great for an economy.
2   Heraclitusstudent   2019 Mar 11, 4:47pm  

China's private sector is fiercely capitalistic and grows faster than the state controlled industries. They are developing large multinationals with a crazy work culture, and a base market much larger than whatever US companies can dream of. The top-down state dirigisme just helps to make sure their guys triumph over poor foreign competition.

Sooner or later, they will break US tech monopolies - if they are broken first by democrats in Washington.

I don't see how someone could look at the current situation and over-reported growth you mention and think "Oh so we're ok.".
No we're not ok.
We're not gonna be ok.
Even if they fail... it may be worse for the US.
3   MisdemeanorRebel   2019 Mar 11, 4:51pm  

60 days after the US Embargoes China, or simply reciprocates their tariffs, China collapses from hungry rioters.

No unemployment, No welfare, nothing to stop all the little knock-off shops from closing entirely until trade resumes.
4   Heraclitusstudent   2019 Mar 11, 5:14pm  

MisterLearnToCode says
60 days after the US Embargoes China, or simply reciprocates their tariffs, China collapses from hungry rioters.


... an ultra-nationalist general comes to power, crushes revolts with tanks, blames the US, and attacks Taiwan to shore up his popularity.

The US is forced to either do nothing and look like a bunch of cowards or be dragged into a war with an other nuclear-armed super-power.

Commerce collapses.
US forces discover they are unable to procure many of the parts they need in their equipment.
US satellites including GPS suddenly stops working, preventing use of a number of US weapons.
US navy groups are confronted to swarms of AI powered drones, both aerials and underwater. They run out of ammo shooting thousands of them. But they keep coming...
etc, etc...
5   Goran_K   2019 Mar 11, 5:35pm  

Heraclitusstudent says
MisterLearnToCode says
60 days after the US Embargoes China, or simply reciprocates their tariffs, China collapses from hungry rioters.


... an ultra-nationalist general comes to power, crushes revolts with tanks, blames the US, and attacks Taiwan to shore up his popularity.

The US is forced to either do nothing and look like a bunch of cowards or be dragged into a war with an other nuclear-armed super-power.

Commerce collapses.
US forces discover they are unable to procure many of the parts they need in their equipment.
US satellites including GPS suddenly stops working, preventing use of a number of US weapons.
US navy groups are confronted to swarms of AI powered drones, both aerials and underwater. They run out of ammo shooting thousands of them. But they keep coming...
etc, etc...


Video games are nice to think about but the reality is China’s armed forces are primarily made up of old Soviet tech that is older than most people on this forum. They have never fought against a modern army or navy and would struggle mightily against one because of the overwhelming tech disadvantage.
6   Heraclitusstudent   2019 Mar 11, 5:45pm  

It's like their tech disadvantage in 5G.
We'll see in 10 yrs where they are.

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