patrick.net

Wow

I forget who does it now but there was a u-haul index which tracked this inbound/outbound price disparity.

Back when I lived in DC the nations capital was #1 on this index several years in a row, and I argued that it was a sign of big price declines to come as people were priced out and moved away.

Alas that never happened and I ended up being a small part of that index after I couldn't afford to buy so I rented a u-haul and headed to Richmond which was much more affordable.

anon_21d83 says

Back when I lived in DC the nations capital was #1 on this index several years in a row, and I argued that it was a sign of big price declines to come as people were priced out and moved away.

That's the thing with the way this stuff is tracked. Works pretty well for a city like Cleveland, OH or Peoria, IL. But when housing prices are that high, the people moving out are generally poorer or less rich to be nicer and use a moving van to get out. And the richer people moving in, just get new furniture and unpack suitcases. They don't need a moving van on the way in.

The the Bay Area and places like DC are probably harder to track in my opinion because of that factor. Especially with foreigners moving in to both these locations at a higher rate. They're probably doing shipping containers if they're bringing any big stuff. I doubt those could be part of that metric as it's probably a tiny fraction of a % of shipping containers being used for moving. But it is probably the main way foreigner would get stuff here.

If I were to ever move out of state, especially more than 500 miles, I'm selling most of my shit and will buy new or good used stuff with the cash from my old stuff. I'll obviously eat some of the money, but also don't have to pay a moving company and deal with the inevitable horror stories of moving and shit not showing up for 2 weeks or it being held hostage by a moving company.

WookieMan says

the people moving out are generally poorer or less rich to be nicer and use a moving van to get out. And the richer people moving in, just get new furniture and unpack suitcases. They don't need a moving van on the way in.

Sometimes, retirees leave to cheaper areas and bring all of their stuff. Young people drawn to urban areas may move without a uhaul, because they don't have much stuff.
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anon_61c8a says

Sometimes, retirees leave to cheaper areas and bring all of their stuff. Young people drawn to urban areas may move without a uhaul, because they don't have much stuff.

Good points. Obviously it's not an exact science. Some those young people could get a Uhaul as well when they're moving out of their parents place though, and the parents stay. So it look like an outbound move. This is probably pretty common in richer areas I would guess cause the kids can't afford rent or a buy a house. And some like you said would just move with an SUV or truck and trailer from a friend. I guess I just don't put much faith in these stats is mainly what I'm getting at.

WHAT!? People don't like living in a city full of sidewalk poop, intolerant assholes, and sky high housing!?!?

I thought the Uhaul shortage was from homeless stealing them and turning them into mobile campers.

Ceffer says

I thought the Uhaul shortage was from homeless stealing them and turning them into mobile campers.

I'm actually surprised I don't see more crafty, hipster guys/gals converting old Uhaul's into campers. I'm sure it's being done, but I don't see anything like that in the Chicagoland region. Although we do live next to Indiana, capital of some of the shittiest campers made on the planet. So we get some cheap prices on cheap campers.

NuttBoxer says

city full of sidewalk poop

I wonder if anyone has ever been distracted and didn't notice the sidewalk poop. And the sidewalk poop was of the creamy, non-solid variety. And then they slipped on it and landed in it.

I'd be packing my bags when I got home if that ever happened to me in case anyone cared.

WookieMan says

I guess I just don't put much faith in these stats is mainly what I'm getting at.

I basically agree with you on this and your other point. I was just adding to it. If people were really fleeing SF, you would see a decline in prices of rent and houses. That's just not what you are seeing.

anon_61c8a says

If people were really fleeing SF, you would see a decline in prices of rent and houses.

Bingo. We have a winner. Poorer people are moving out with u hauls, richer people are moving in with moving companies.

WookieMan says

I'm actually surprised I don't see more crafty, hipster guys/gals converting old Uhaul's into campers. I'm sure it's being done, but I don't see anything like that in the Chicagoland region. Although we do live next to Indiana, capital of some of the shittiest campers made on the planet. So we get some cheap prices on cheap campers.

In Santa Cruz, a homeless crazy/on probation/drug addict camped out in front of a library. He said it was public property and he was entitled. When he was told to get his crap camp out anyway, they were gratified to see him come back with a U-Haul to take his stuff away. That was, until they found out he stole the U-Haul.