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Plunging costs make solar, wind and battery storage cheaper than coal


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2018 Jan 29, 9:01am   12,348 views  66 comments

by Patrick   ➕follow (55)   💰tip   ignore  

http://reneweconomy.com.au/plunging-costs-make-solar-wind-and-battery-storage-cheaper-than-coal-83151/
The plunging cost of storage, along with that of wind and solar power, appears to have crossed a new threshold after a tender conducted by a major US energy utility suggests “firm and dispatchable” renewables are now cheaper than existing coal plants.


I wonder if this takes into account the artificially low cost of solar due to dumping of solar cells by China. Maybe solar is not so cheap in reality.

But still, it's very good news and going to solve many problems:

* terrorism is funded mainly by our dollars flowing to Saudi Arabia and Qatar
* coal causes pollution directly, especially in China (from which it blows over to California)
* global warming is likely exacerbated by our use of fossil fuels

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1   WookieMan   2018 Jan 29, 9:03am  

Hopefully the coal farmers don't get mad.
2   Malcolm   2018 Jan 29, 9:53am  

I am big on renewables, mainly because of air pollution, secondly importing oil is bad in general, and who we import it from is even worse. To give perspective, some companies advertise their solar leases and other programs by the generation, and that figure is 7 cents a kilowatt. Look at what you are paying on your electric bill and you should see that it is substantially more. For that reason, we get an extra incentive to the economy, because solar is still cheaper, even with tariffs. It is getting so noticeable that SDG&E is changing its pricing so that now night time usage will be billed at a higher rate than daytime. This is because people were really maximizing the solar benefit and doing the opposite time of use with a solar system, thereby generating very expensive energy during the day and then having minimal use and cost at night. The utilities don't like that.
3   Strategist   2018 Jan 29, 9:58am  

Patrick says
The plunging cost of storage, along with that of wind and solar power, appears to have crossed a new threshold after a tender conducted by a major US energy utility suggests “firm and dispatchable” renewables are now cheaper than existing coal plants.

In states where the cost of electricity is high, renewables have been cheaper for a couple of years. Every single electricity producing plant that was shut down lat year used fossil fuels. Almost all new plants generating electricity are based on renewable energy. What does that tell us about the future of electricity?

WookieMan says
Hopefully the coal farmers don't get mad.

They have to be really foolish to think coal has a future.
4   anonymous   2018 Jan 29, 10:00am  

Patrick says
I wonder if this takes into account the artificially low cost of solar due to dumping of solar cells by China. Maybe solar is not so cheap in reality.

But still, it's very good news and going to solve many problems:


Don't forget the 30% tax credit too!

That helps.
5   WookieMan   2018 Jan 29, 10:13am  

Malcolm says
The utilities don't like that.

I think utilities are a big factor in holding back solar and wind. At least from the perspective of an individual home owner. But most homeowners can't even figure out how to put in a circuit breaker either. Let alone attach an array of solar panels to their roof without some contractor gouging them 20-40% on the total install. It's an uphill battle to really crack open the homeowner market in my opinion.

On a side not I think oil companies and even coal companies should be promoting renewable's. When those businesses are unable to pull anymore of their product out of the earth, they likely don't exist anymore. So the longer their product stays around, the more likely it is for them to stay around as a business. Plus they can maybe branch out and be pioneers in the tech instead of fighting against it. For my son's great grandson, this is important. Along with the shareholders of that future time.

And I'm not talking about BP throwing some solar panels up on their roof. I'm talking investing and creating renewable tech and infrastructure.

@Malcolm - I'm not your English teacher, but a paragraph break would be appreciated. Genuinely not trying to be a prick, just makes it easier to read. I'm prone to make the same mistake. After almost a decade break at Patnet from your comment history, I hope you take my suggestion to heart and not negatively. We need more posters and content, but just make sure it's easier to read ;)
6   Strategist   2018 Jan 29, 10:36am  

Malcolm says
I am big on renewables, mainly because of air pollution, secondly importing oil is bad in general, and who we import it from is even worse. To give perspective, some companies advertise their solar leases and other programs by the generation, and that figure is 7 cents a kilowatt.


Ha....What does that do to Big Oil? It totally destroys them. An electric car goes 3 or 4 miles per KwH. At 7 cents that equates to 2 cents a mile. Imagine driving 1,000 miles per month for $20.00 compared to $100 to $200 for gas.
It's very sad. Exxon Mobil was such a nice company.
7   anonymous   2018 Jan 29, 10:37am  

Imagine what will happen to prices as more and more Hemp is brought on line? Maybe Henry Ford and Rudolf Diesel will finally have their dream of Hemp as a primary biofuel realized.

If only we could get the Conservative Right to end their jihadist alliance with Saudi Barbaria. Thanks a lot, Christian Republicans!
8   Strategist   2018 Jan 29, 10:43am  

Malcolm says
It is getting so noticeable that SDG&E is changing its pricing so that now night time usage will be billed at a higher rate than daytime. This is because people were really maximizing the solar benefit and doing the opposite time of use with a solar system, thereby generating very expensive energy during the day and then having minimal use and cost at night. The utilities don't like that.


43% of electricity generated by SDGE is renewable. Well above any other utility in California.
9   RWSGFY   2018 Jan 29, 10:53am  

errc says
Imagine what will happen to prices as more and more Hemp is brought on line?


Big fat nothing?



10   Strategist   2018 Jan 29, 11:03am  

Clean energy and it's benefits apply to all, so why the support or lack of, for clean energy is being based on political affiliations is beyond me.
11   anonymous   2018 Jan 29, 11:10am  

Hillary sure was was a witch for being honest to WV. What a WV man really needs is an orange oracle to promise a permanent job in coal... that, some opiates, and a cheap whore.
12   justme   2018 Jan 29, 1:45pm  

I wish it were true that solar is cheaper than coal, but if it is, why does China have so many coal-fired plants? I'm all for solar, but the claim that storage is cheap is just not true, yet.
13   FortWayne   2018 Jan 29, 1:50pm  

Where can someone buy panels so cheap that it works out that way?

Because every company out here that offers solar, charges an arm and a leg for them.
14   anonymous   2018 Jan 29, 1:57pm  

FortWayne says
Where can someone buy panels so cheap that it works out that way?

Because every company out here that offers solar, charges an arm and a leg for them.


Trump is working to make it more expensive
15   RWSGFY   2018 Jan 29, 2:13pm  

FortWayne says
Where can someone buy panels so cheap that it works out that way?

Because every company out here that offers solar, charges an arm and a leg for them.


Define "arm and leg". As it stands now the system covering 90-110% of residential power demand in CA pays for itself in about 6-7 years. At least this is the numbers I've got from multiple solar companies. Ten years ago the number would be 15+ years IIRC, so it does get cheaper. Which also acts as an incentive to wait a bit more before purchasing one.

PS. This for fully owned system, I don't care about somebody else's property sitting on my roof, so no "solar leases" or PPAs for me.
16   anonymous   2018 Jan 29, 2:20pm  

It will be interesting to see if the Vanadium Redox-⁠Flow Battery is ready for its closeup. It has fewer flanmability concerns than lithium-ion and can take more discharge cycles. It looks like a possible replacement for fossil based peaker plants as well as providing for grid stability.
17   anonymous   2018 Jan 29, 2:20pm  

justme says
but if it is, why does China have so many coal-fired plants?

I'd guess a variety of reasons. The biggest is that solar was not cheaper when those plants were built. Other reasons: China has a lot of coal. Prices there have been high lately, but I believe they were probably cheaper in China than the US when many coal plants were built.
According to Wikipedia, China was the first country to have over 100 GW of installed solar power. So, they are using it themselves. They are not just exporting panels. According to another source, their coal power capacity was 1400 GW, of which about 160 GW as added in one year. So, they are still building coal plants at the moment, but I've read that as much as 50% of capacity is idle in that sector.

Whether solar is actually cheaper or not with no subsidies right now isn't that important. It's going to be cheaper soon if you extrapolate current solar price trajectories. So, if one is talking about what's likely to be built in the near future, it's going to be a lot of solar. Solar's biggest enemy today is solar tomorrow in my opinion. Even if it makes sense to buy a system today when compared to current power prices over a 10 yr period, it might be better to keep using grid power for the next two years, and then buy solar at that point.
18   anonymous   2018 Jan 29, 3:00pm  

south solar makes great sense, is it worth putting such solar in North east Pennsylvania? and what companies are doing that so cheap to recover in 7 years
19   anonymous   2018 Jan 29, 3:46pm  

justme says
I wish it were true that solar is cheaper than coal, but if it is, why does China have so many coal-fired plants?


Because the sun doesn't shine on the panels at night and on cloudy days.
20   RWSGFY   2018 Jan 29, 4:04pm  

anon_b1267 says
south solar makes great sense, is it worth putting such solar in North east Pennsylvania? and what companies are doing that so cheap to recover in 7 years


https://www.energysage.com
21   Malcolm   2018 Jan 29, 5:08pm  

Strategist says
43% of electricity generated by SDGE is renewable. Well above any other utility in California.


True, that includes rooftop solar. Also, SDG&E doesn’t generate electricity, it distributes it. There are mandates for it to source renewables, which is good, because they sure didn’t on their own.
22   Malcolm   2018 Jan 29, 5:56pm  

Strategist says
An electric car goes 3 or 4 miles per KwH. At 7 cents that equates to 2 cents a mile. Imagine driving 1,000 miles per month for $20.00 compared to $100 to $200 for gas.
It's very sad. Exxon Mobil was such a nice company.


Your numbers are spot on, I know since I drive a Leaf. It is the most liberating move you could ever make. The Bolt might be my next car, as its range is insane. There is now NO reason to not go electric.
23   WookieMan   2018 Jan 29, 6:03pm  

Malcolm says
There is now NO reason to not go electric.

All for electric, don't get me wrong. One word: Towing

Car companies that are pushing electric, need to start stroking that vehicle owner if they really want to make changes in the industry. I don't believe I've seen any EV that can tow anything worth towing.
24   Shaman   2018 Jan 29, 6:25pm  

I’ve noticed that all the city buses around here have gone EV.
Better batteries make EVs a better option.
Saw a huge Tesla charging station in Death Valley next to a gas station... probably eight cars recharging there.
25   anonymous   2018 Jan 29, 6:29pm  

Tim Aurora says
Malcolm says
Your numbers are spot on, I know since I drive a Leaf. It is the most liberating move you could ever make. The Bolt might be my next car, as its range is insane. There is now NO reason to not go electric.


I am on my third EV. The first two were Leaf's and third is Chevy Volt


So, you're spending 30% more for the same sized vehicle to save a few dollars on gas?

and you have to replace them more frequently?

This saves you money, how?
26   Malcolm   2018 Jan 29, 7:01pm  

anon_34fca says
So, you're spending 30% more for the same sized vehicle to save a few dollars on gas?

and you have to replace them more frequently?

This saves you money, how?


Good question. Yes, if you went and bought a Leaf thinking the gas savings would justify the premium, you would be disappointed. Here is the deal:

You lease, don’t buy. You don’t want to own improving technology, bad resale value.

So here is how you do it. 2016 Leaf S MSRP of $30.000.

Down payment $2,000
Monthly payment of $215, including all taxes.
12,000 miles a year 15 cents overage per mile.

The State gives you $2,500, so you just got paid $500 to drive a brand new car. Nissan absorbs the federal incentive, so you are basically leasing a $22,500 car.

But wait, it gets better. Nissan then gives you a card for free charging. Even without it, there are places for free electricity.

So the savings is no gas, which I use 10 cents a mile for easy math. No oil changes or tune ups, almost no maintainence. So in reality you are driving a pretty cool car for $100 a month.

I tell people to not even sell what they have, as just a money saving tool, it makes sense to lease one in addition, but then people realize the car is more than enough and they find themselves driving their EV for more and more errands.

I have driven from San Diego, to Hearst Castle for $2.00. Round trip. We are on our 4th Leaf lease. It is a game changer.
27   WookieMan   2018 Jan 29, 7:17pm  

So the whole towing thing hasn't been addressed. And that's fine, I'm not sure it can be.

Again, I'm all for EV's. Malcolm your Leaf scenario makes sense and I'd push for people to do this.

Here's the problem: https://www.carmax.com/car/15506622
The same car essentially as a Leaf, with a gas engine is still going to be cheaper over time. And if you're not leasing, you eventually have a payment free vehicle if you can god forbid own a car for more than 3-4 years. 10 out of 10 times you'll come out ahead with the gas Versa over the Leaf. That's a direct apples to apples comparison.

I've yet to see any math to show it works out better over 5-7 years with the Leaf over the Versa. If you need a new car sooner than that, you have another problem that probably isn't all that environmentally friendly needing a new car every 3 years.
28   Strategist   2018 Jan 29, 7:21pm  

Malcolm says
Strategist says
An electric car goes 3 or 4 miles per KwH. At 7 cents that equates to 2 cents a mile. Imagine driving 1,000 miles per month for $20.00 compared to $100 to $200 for gas.
It's very sad. Exxon Mobil was such a nice company.


Your numbers are spot on, I know since I drive a Leaf. It is the most liberating move you could ever make. The Bolt might be my next car, as its range is insane. There is now NO reason to not go electric.


Yes, the general population is totally misinformed about the benefits of electric cars. It's changing very rapidly though. I have given facts for hybrid and electric cars to so many people I am acquainted with, who purchased these cars, and EVERY ONE OF THEM are so delighted they are completely switching to electric and plug ins only.
It's not just the savings in gas, but maintenance costs too. There is little or no maintenance on these cars.
You can lease these cars for less than the cost of gas for most cars. Here is the evidence for California. The federal rebates are built in, but the state rebates come in a separate check, tax free.

Look at the lease cost per mile, and deduct the state rebates from this. Makes it a lot lot better.
http://ev-vin.blogspot.com
29   🎂 Tenpoundbass   2018 Jan 29, 7:27pm  

WookieMan says
If you need a new car sooner than that, you have another problem that probably isn't all that environmentally friendly needing a new car every 3 years.

In the 80's there were so many cars left over from the 70's they were cheap hoopties kids bought for under $1000.
Those cars kept demand for new cars compared to the last 9 or 10 years considerably lower. Cash for clunkers cleared out tens of millions of otherwise cheap dependable transportation and created a walking, give me a ride, Uber class of young adults. For the first time in American History we have a generation of kids that have no mode of Transpiration depending on the kindness of strangers to give them a ride, or for the Uber driver not Mug and Stab them at least.
Cash for Clunkers got rid of most cars from the 70's, 80's and 90's that were still on the road when Bush left office. Even with soaring metal prices the carnage still continues as young kids were given cars more often than not, the insurance cost drove them junk the cars after a minor or major disrepair. People were getting $1200 for junk cars as scrap metal but as a used car they worth $700.

One thing I've noticed about the cars circa 2006 on is the amount of plastic in the bodies. They are holding up and not looking as beat up as used cars in the past.
More and more cars go and come off leases, and New cars get bought and worn in and enter the Used car market. There will start to be some pretty sweet 2006 used cars for a few hundred dollars.
Might put the brakes on the $35K starter car, green, hybrid, sports coup or otherwise.
30   Strategist   2018 Jan 29, 7:28pm  

anon_34fca says
So, you're spending 30% more for the same sized vehicle to save a few dollars on gas?

and you have to replace them more frequently?

This saves you money, how?


This is the misinformation I am talking about. I don't blame anyone. Please research carefully, you will be surprised.
31   RWSGFY   2018 Jan 29, 7:32pm  

Malcolm says
So in reality you are driving a pretty cool car


Sorry, but "Leaf" and "cool" do not belong in the same sentence. It's an econobox, dorkmobile or whatever the proper derogatory term is for Corollas and Versas of this world. Which is ok if you're into this kind of thing.
32   FortWayne   2018 Jan 29, 7:32pm  

Satoshi_Nakamoto says
FortWayne says
Where can someone buy panels so cheap that it works out that way?

Because every company out here that offers solar, charges an arm and a leg for them.


Define "arm and leg". As it stands now the system covering 90-110% of residential power demand in CA pays for itself in about 6-7 years. At least this is the numbers I've got from multiple solar companies. Ten years ago the number would be 15+ years IIRC, so it does get cheaper. Which also acts as an incentive to wait a bit more before purchasing one.

PS. This for fully owned system, I don't care about somebody else's property sitting on my roof, so no "solar leases" or PPAs for me.


I was told for me it would cost about 30k to get panels from Solar City by their rep who came out. Our electricity bill comes out to about $140/month. So
140 * 12 = $1680/year
30,000 / 1200 = 17.8 years (assuming money is not earning interest or dividents and just stays under the mattress). There is no benefit.
33   Strategist   2018 Jan 29, 7:37pm  

Satoshi_Nakamoto says
Malcolm says
So in reality you are driving a pretty cool car


Sorry, but "Leaf" and "cool" do not belong in the same sentence. It's an econobox, dorkmobile or whatever the proper derogatory term is for Corollas and Versas of this world. Which is ok if you're into this kind of thing.


You should check out the latest model of the Leaf.
34   Strategist   2018 Jan 29, 7:45pm  

Malcolm says
So the savings is no gas, which I use 10 cents a mile for easy math. No oil changes or tune ups, almost no maintainence. So in reality you are driving a pretty cool car for $100 a month.


Even the break pads went 115,000 miles on our 2011 Prius , and it's just a hybrid, not even a true electric.
It's just a matter of time before the truth comes out. Big Oil cannot fool all the people all the time.
35   WookieMan   2018 Jan 29, 7:47pm  

Strategist says
Satoshi_Nakamoto says
Malcolm says
So in reality you are driving a pretty cool car


Sorry, but "Leaf" and "cool" do not belong in the same sentence. It's an econobox, dorkmobile or whatever the proper derogatory term is for Corollas and Versas of this world. Which is ok if you're into this kind of thing.


You should check out the latest model of the Leaf.

I'm cool with the Leaf, some pun intended there. The question comes down to if you're a leasing dude or own the car and can do some of your own maintenance type guy. I like to own the car. You can have the equivalent of the lease payments for 3 years and then own the car with no payments for 2-6 years afterwards if you take care of it. Those car payment free years destroy any savings of an EV during the first 6-12 months without said payment.

You will do better paying for gas and maintenance 100% of the time versus leasing an EV (Versa vs Leaf). If you're arguing over a 3 year period then I could be wrong. I've never owned a car for only 3 years though, so my bias is showing.
36   Malcolm   2018 Jan 29, 7:56pm  

FortWayne says
I was told for me it would cost about 30k to get panels from Solar City by their rep who came out. Our electricity bill comes out to about $140/month. So
140 * 12 = $1680/year
30,000 / 1200 = 17.8 years (assuming money is not earning interest or dividents and just stays under the mattress). There is no benefit.


Ripoff. Go somewhere else, and if you are in S California, let me know. I could hook you up for much less. Those numbers are outrageous.
37   Malcolm   2018 Jan 29, 8:00pm  

Strategist says
Even the break pads went 115,000 miles on our 2011 Prius , and it's just a hybrid, not even a true electric.


You drive a Prius, but think the Leaf is a dorkmobile? Don't get me wrong, I leased two Priuses, as I knew they were a stepping stone, and I am into that sort of thing; definitely wasn't trying to impress, but I have to tell you, that I like the Leaf much better. For styling and for the all electric coolness factor, it blows the Prius away.
38   Strategist   2018 Jan 29, 8:00pm  

FortWayne says
I was told for me it would cost about 30k to get panels from Solar City by their rep who came out. Our electricity bill comes out to about $140/month. So
140 * 12 = $1680/year
30,000 / 1200 = 17.8 years (assuming money is not earning interest or dividents and just stays under the mattress). There is no benefit.


You need to provide the right figures for an analysis.
I assume your utility is SCE, and you must have got that quote a while ago. $140.00 per month tells me you have a benefit in going solar.
You need to know how many KwH of electricity you use on an average month.
What KW system you will need to offset your use from SCE.
And the cost per watt installed.
You can then derive the cost per KwH. These salesmen have told me the cost was 8 cents per KwH, but I calculated 10 cents simply by treating the total cost after rebates, over a 25 year period as a loan based on 4%.
39   WookieMan   2018 Jan 29, 8:07pm  

Strategist says
I assume your utility is SCE, and you must have got that quote a while ago. $140.00 per month tells me you have a benefit in going solar.

What the hell are your electric rates out there? Or do you have 3k plus square foot houses? That seems like a high average for the temperate climate you all have out there.

I've got muggy ass muggy fucking whether in the summer here in IL and I'd really be stretching to average $140/mo over the entire year. I'm closer to $110/mo. At $140/mo I could just unplug the fridges in the summer and keep my beers cool with the house A/C.
40   Strategist   2018 Jan 29, 8:29pm  

WookieMan says
Strategist says
I assume your utility is SCE, and you must have got that quote a while ago. $140.00 per month tells me you have a benefit in going solar.

What the hell are your electric rates out there? Or do you have 3k plus square foot houses? That seems like a high average for the temperate climate you all have out there.

I've got muggy ass muggy fucking whether in the summer here in IL and I'd really be stretching to average $140/mo over the entire year. I'm closer to $110/mo. At $140/mo I could just unplug the fridges in the summer and keep my beers cool with the house A/C.


My home is above 3K sq ft, but that does not mean I use more electricity than you do, simply because we have an ocean breeze. The problem we have is the cost of electricity per KwH used. It is horrendous and a rip off.
What matters is the electricity used in KwH. We use 1000 KwH in an average month, mostly due to charging the electric cars we have. Otherwise it would be 400KwH in an average month because we seldom use air conditioning. I believe the national average outside of California is 1,000 KwH per month.

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