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Interview: Why The American Recession Bears Failed


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2016 Jul 18, 12:22pm   18,276 views  137 comments

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https://loganmohtashami.com/2016/07/18/interview-why-the-american-recession-bears-failed/

#Economics

We want this war for the next 20 years against the Anti American demogoues. Make no mistake both conservative and liberal.. the days of lying about this great country is coming to an end.... the days of the data miners destroying the Anti American Troll is here

Let The War Begin

#USA

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1   🎂 Tenpoundbass   2016 Jul 18, 1:05pm  

We need higher interest rates and banks needs to pay savers again, regardless how that fits or doesn't fit into anyones prefered ecconomic model.

2   _   2016 Jul 18, 1:10pm  

Tenpoundbass says

We need higher interest rates and banks needs to pay savers again, regardless how that fits or doesn't fit into anyones prefered ecconomic model.

Probably the biggest concern I have going out is the massive shift in aging demographics in terms of a flush of older Americans without the proper savings for retirement

Not the interest income ....

That's not a economic push factor in term of consumption, its more of a different subject.

However, the Fed won't raise rates if inflation is low

Some people can make the case they're behind the curve historically, but then again we have over 14 trillion dollars of negative rates out there as well.

Entire new ball game with demographic deflationary factors

3   Blurtman   2016 Jul 18, 1:21pm  

Get to work, you old fucks! No rest util you are in the grave. Consume!!!!

4   _   2016 Jul 18, 1:34pm  

Blurtman says

Get to work, you old fucks! No rest util you are in the grave. Consume!!!!

Old people are working for sure, but naturally their spending habits are much different at that stage of life

5   Blurtman   2016 Jul 18, 1:41pm  

75 and older. Yikes!

6   BayArea   2016 Jul 18, 2:32pm  

I enjoy your posts but don't enjoy seeing your mug every other post.

7   Y   2016 Jul 18, 2:56pm  

the face of a 40 year old, but the eyes of an 80 year old.
WTFIUWT??
Chart-O-Holic!

BayArea says

I enjoy your posts but don't enjoy seeing your mug every other post.

8   _   2016 Jul 18, 3:17pm  

BayArea says

I enjoy your posts but don't enjoy seeing your mug every other post.

I do that on purposes for a reason

Speaking of which

I just got invited to a national economic conference closed to the public but all the players will be there and .....

I get to debate live!

Our invitation-only audience is comprised of senior-level executives from these types of firms:

NGOs (World Bank, International Monetary Fund, et al.)
Central banks
Government agencies
Regulatory institutions
Sovereign wealth funds
Institutional investors
Investment banks
Private equity and hedge funds
GSEs, banks, credit unions, insurers
Mortgage originators, servicers, issuers
Mortgage and Single-Family REITs
Single-Family operators
Research, data and technology providers
Think tanks
Rating agencies
Strategic service providers

The lady who runs it wants to pit me on everyone....

I promise I will document everything ;-)

9   freespeechforever   2016 Jul 18, 3:45pm  

Logan, you are one dumb motherfucker, and remind of a sleazy stockbroker parasite (the kind who I regularly represented back in 2009 to 2013 when they filed for personal bankruptcy en masse due to their ingrained, genetically-programmed imbecilism).

Look at global trade such as the BDI or Cass Shipping Index, you dumb fuck.

The only reason equity markets are making new highs is because central banks (especially BOJ, ECB, Fed Resrve PBOC, BOE) are directly buying equities and also credit/debt instruments in massive amounts, suppressing yields, forcing historically low interest rates, forcing yield-chasers (starved of any natural/historically normal money rate) go further and further out on the risk spectrum, etc.

This shit will end, and you'd better be the first out the emergency exit before the dumb fucking herd panics if you actually have your own money in these bullshit markets, because the bust that's about to happen is going to be worse the. 2008-2010.

For non-retards (Logan being a classic retard and/or lying fucking stock pimp) who want to understand true forces affecting equities, credit flows, debt levels, etc., in this upside down, diseased global economy, stick with credible sources of data, and not Logan's slimeball rantings.

10   _   2016 Jul 18, 3:50pm  

freespeechforever says

Logan, you are one dumb motherfucker,

freespeechforever says

Look at global trade such as the BDI or Cass Shipping Index, you dumb fuck.

freespeechforever says

The only reason equity markets are making new highs is because central banks (especially BOJ, ECB, Fed Resrve PBOC, BOE)

freespeechforever says

This shit will end, and you'd better be the first out the emergency exit before the dumb fucking herd panics

freespeechforever says

For non-retards (Logan being a classic retard and/or lying fucking stock pimp

but ... I will never be a Anti American Troll hiding behind a fake name like a coward...

Cry... Cry... Cry.. Cry... behind your little desk

The days of the Anti American Troll is coming to an end...

The new normal never happened, the Great American collapse never happened....

But you trolls still linger ...

By all means.. proceed.. I need you guys to keep crying for another 20 years.

Recession come and go... but this New Anti American Troll... You never had a chance

11   _   2016 Jul 18, 3:55pm  

freespeechforever says

(especially BOJ, ECB, Fed Resrve PBOC, BOE)

2014... I was promised the Great October Collapse because that's when #QE ended.. and yet when it did.. No collapse came

This gimmick works on rookies... have to try harder than that.. I don't read Zero Hedge

12   🎂 Tenpoundbass   2016 Jul 18, 3:56pm  

Blurtman says

75 and older. Yikes!

That's because more people 75 are alive working than there is retired people 75 years old.
There's jobs you have to retired when you reach a certain age.
There's jobs you should retire when you reach a certain age.
Then there are jobs that the older a person gets the more suited he is for it.

I've wached way too many people in my life deteriorate and die or their health physical and mental went down hill fast after retiring.
A Neighbor of mine retired the day I started my new job Janurary 12th of 2015. Perfect picture of health at 62, he barely looked in his early 50's. He was dead by Mid January this year.
After about the 8th month of his steady regiment of waking up at 8am and going to the bank and procuring enough beer to get him through until the next morning. He decided that he was bored with that. Then started drinking a Gallon of Vodka without eating a bite of food. He was dead with in 3 to 4 months after that. It got ugly, his ankles and feet were purple and were about 12 inches in circumference while the top of his legs and everything else was skinny as a concentration camp victim. Open sores on his arm. Refused to go see a Doctor refused an Ambulance, I told him I'm not going to watch him die. So that was that, he was dead a week or two later.

13   _   2016 Jul 18, 3:58pm  

freespeechforever says

Look at global trade such as the BDI or Cass Shipping Index, you dumb fuck.

Fully how global trade didn't impact home sales, car sales and retail sales...

I guess I must be stupid... we should have crashed when the dollar rose and commodities collapse

14   _   2016 Jul 18, 4:00pm  

Forgot to add this in the article

15   freespeechforever   2016 Jul 18, 4:28pm  

Keep citing idiotic RBS calls, Logan-AnalStain.

Will you be here and be MAN enough to admit this is a shit for brains equity & credit instrument (whether corporate or gov't bonds, whether straight-up distances or exotic synthethized ones - aka snakeoil) when the next massive deterioration sets in, which will be right around November to January (not that we couldn't see a 20% move lower as soon as by the end of August)?

You'll then say you already pulled your pretend play money out of the long side of the markets after the fact, right?

I represent major REITs and private equity on commercial real estate developments (hotels, retail development, etc.), and there's more money chasing lower quality assets now than there was in August of 2007, which is the last time I made a call similar to the one I'm broadcasting now.

The kicker is that effective interest rates are already at the 0 bound now, when they were at 5.5% in August of 2007, so good luck to central banks in their efforts to shock the (now structurally hollowed out, over-leveraged) economy back to life when it doubles over with Ebola.

16   _   2016 Jul 18, 4:30pm  

freespeechforever says

Keep citing idiotic RBS calls, Logan-AnalStain.

17   _   2016 Jul 18, 4:30pm  

3) Mike “Mish” Shedlock in 2011 says the US is currently in a recession
Monday, August 29, 2011 2:54 AM

US In Recession Right Here, Right Now
I am amused by those who think a US recession will come within a year. Even more amusing are those who think a recession will not come at all.
“The US is in a recession now. I am not the only one who thinks so.”

18   _   2016 Jul 18, 4:31pm  

freespeechforever says

You'll then say you already pulled your pretend play money out of the long side of the markets after the fact, right?

Always invest, each month regardless of what the economic cycle does, in 20 years that will change

19   _   2016 Jul 18, 4:34pm  

freespeechforever says

over-leveraged)

Seriously, only have 88.1 trillion dollars on top of all that massive debt..

Not 2007... no clear over investment thesis on exotic debt

The better thesis would be that commercial real estate looks too hot with the up coming supply coming in 2 years

20   AD   2016 Jul 18, 4:34pm  

Logan Mohtashami says

2014... I was promised the Great October Collapse because that's when #QE ended.. and yet when it did.. No collapse came

This gimmick works on rookies... have to try harder than that.. I don't read Zero Hedge

The collapse came later in January 2016, at least it was about a 17% collapse for the S&P 500.

Yes, after QE ended in late 2014, the market has essentially moved sideways.

Read Zero Hedge, and then read Seeking Alpha before reading Calculated Risk Blog.

21   _   2016 Jul 18, 4:37pm  

freespeechforever says

I represent major REITs and private equity on commercial real estate developments (hotels, retail development, etc.),

CoStar: Commercial Real Estate prices increased in May

22   _   2016 Jul 18, 4:39pm  

adarmiento says

The collapse came later in January 2016, at least it was about a 17% collapse for the S&P 500.

No...

It wasn't about the pull back... no no no

It was the worthless Anti Fed Crowd that said

The entire U.S. economy is based on #QE and once #QE ended everything would stop and crash

No cherry picking the statement

That was the promise...

Also the fact that inflation would be roaring..

Inflation is picking up but no hyper inflation thesis on Core CPI

23   Blurtman   2016 Jul 18, 4:53pm  

Tenpoundbass says

I've wached way too many people in my life deteriorate and die or their health physical and mental went down hill fast after retiring.

Yes, boredom can kill. Deplorable heath habits, too. They should have included an operator's manual with the body.

There is a difference between want to and have to. Accumulating enough to retire comfortably gives one options.

24   _   2016 Jul 18, 5:04pm  

25   freespeechforever   2016 Jul 18, 5:20pm  

Logan is such a stupid motherfucker that he can't even adjust for inflation, can't break out dividends from nominal appreciation, and if he's actually serious in believing what he posts (tripe), is probably a 16 year old e*trade day trader (or paper-fantasy trader)o who has been in the game since the 8th grade, using a pet account):

S&P 500: Total and Inflation-Adjusted Historical Returns

http://www.simplestockinvesting.com/SP500-historical-real-total-returns.htm

Annual Averages per Decade

The following table shows average annual results for each decade:

  Price
Change Dividend
Dist. Rate Total
Return Inflation Real
Price Change Real
Total Return
1950's 13.2 % 5.4 % 19.3 % 2.2 % 10.7 % 16.7 %
1960's 4.4 % 3.3 % 7.8 % 2.5 % 1.8 % 5.2 %
1970's 1.6 % 4.3 % 5.8 % 7.4 % -5.4 % -1.4 %
1980's 12.6 % 4.6 % 17.3 % 5.1 % 7.1 % 11.6 %
1990's 15.3 % 2.7 % 18.1 % 2.9 % 12.0 % 14.7 %
2000's -2.7 % 1.8 % -1.0 % 2.5 % -5.1 % -3.4 %
1950-2009 7.2 % 3.6 % 11.0 % 3.8 % 3.3 % 7.0 %

I and most other truly wealthy people that I know call the stock market for what it is; a pure, legal scam, where 90% of participants lose money over the short, medium and long-term duration.

If any of you are or know truly wealth individuals, there's a 98.4% chance they made their money in a closely held business, real estate, or even bonds, compared to getting raped in the casino that is the equity markets.

And then we have to suffer Stock Broker limps (scar salesman) who dress badly and smell worse, and their insufferable rantings, such as Logan's.

26   _   2016 Jul 18, 5:29pm  

freespeechforever says

Logan is such a stupid motherfucker that he can't even adjust for inflation

27   freespeechforever   2016 Jul 18, 5:33pm  

p.s. - Slimy, greasy, used car salesman such as Logan won't even go near the fact that if you extend that chart I posted above past 2009, anyone who invested in 1998 would have seen any and all "gains" (many of which for which they had incurred tax liabilities) wiped out by 2011, and if they were heavily invested in high-beta stocks (such as NASDAQ-heavy or other such momo stocks), could have realistically lost 90% of their net worth placed in equities during that same period.

28   _   2016 Jul 18, 5:35pm  

freespeechforever says

I and most other truly wealthy people that I know call the stock market for what it is; a pure, legal scam, where 90% of participants lose money over the short, medium and long-term duration.

Not if you invest every month, :-)

Small steps... lead to big thing over time, recession are a gift from the gods, the trick is to create a financial back drop that allows you to invest every month

10% bonds
5% reit
85% stocks
Mostly SP 500/600
Internal exposure
10% in ticker symbol MASI

:-)

29   _   2016 Jul 18, 5:36pm  

freespeechforever says

chart I posted above past 2009

Chart is up to July 2016

Anything else pumpkin

30   neplusultra57   2016 Jul 18, 5:55pm  

freespeechforever says

Fed Resrve......directly buying equities

LOL

31   freespeechforever   2016 Jul 18, 5:59pm  

God are you stupid. Stupid is so inadequate a word for stock broker chimps (you're more likely a commission-based stock limp).

Congratulations on seeing your $1 rise to approx $10 in purchasing power by "investing" in the equity "markets" over the last 100 years.

http://www.showrealhist.com/index.html

I earn that kind of wealth investing directly in property and businesses in a period of months to several years when the economy is truly rocking and rolling.

32   _   2016 Jul 18, 6:10pm  

freespeechforever says

the economy is truly rocking and rolling.

Ahh so you're a cycle timer and dis credit the Anti American bears

33   freespeechforever   2016 Jul 18, 6:29pm  

I made 8 figures from just 2002 to 2006 ALONE, buying and reselling acreage to Big Box retailers.

I also kept many of the outlots/pad sites in front of those parcels I sold off to this day.

I have clients who have closely held businesses that manufacturer parts for the auto, aviation, energy, etc. industries, with one such example being a recently deceased founder whose plastic injection molding business was purchased after his death (4 months ago) for 118 million USD, and he founded the biz in 1978 with a total investment of $18,000.

I have a client who bought industrial warehouses in bulk from banks in the 2009 to 2013 period, and those assets are worth 5x to 15x what he purchased them for.

Move to the genuine, real money, Logan.

And no, the economy sucks in real terms right now, with some narrow exceptions.

This is definitely the time to be a net seller, not a buyer.

Sell while the central banks allow the connected (and systemically "important" but insolvent banks) to re-capitalize themselves off of taxpayers' and consumers' backs as they flood the zone with trillions in new toilet paper confetti dollars, yen, yuan, euros, pesos, etc.

Logan, you're a different kind of stupid altogether.

34   _   2016 Jul 18, 6:47pm  

freespeechforever says

Logan, you're a different kind of stupid altogether.

So, their is a point in the economic cycle when the economy works

35   freespeechforever   2016 Jul 18, 6:59pm  

Yeah, and if you're still pimpin' the long side, you're way behind the curve.

The time to buy anything was 2009 to 2012.

The truly smart money is dumping right now, and the central banks with their galactically stupid monetary policy (now coordinated globally, for 10x the idiotic, devasting affect on the real, structural economy!) are providing the electronic printing press (turning keystrokes into currency with which to buy up all the milkshakes) cover to escape while the getting is good.

IOW - we never had a real recovery; we had a financial (FIRE) reflation of asset values which truly did benefit the top 0.1% (those who claim the 1% benefited are mistaken; the 1% mainly held still, with few exceptions; the 0.1% are those who received the central bank gifting).

Now, the the reflated (by central bank keystroke magic) financial assets can't begin to paper over the ever-increasing & obvious structural economic degradation (hence the rise of Trump, Marie Le Pen, Brexit, etc.).

Ciao!

36   AD   2016 Jul 18, 9:58pm  

Logan Mohtashami says

No...

It wasn't about the pull back... no no no

It was the worthless Anti Fed Crowd that said

The entire U.S. economy is based on #QE and once #QE ended everything would stop and crash

Well I remember watching CNBC during 2012-2015 and hearing a wide range of pundits saying that 1/2 of the growth in the S&P 500 was due to QE.

37   freespeechforever   2016 Jul 18, 10:10pm  

Logan, I say this was due respect:

Only a truly dumb, head-up-their-ass fuckwad would not concede the glaringly obvious FACT that equities have risen to the point that they have b/c of global, coordinated, super-aggressive monetary policy (QE1, QE2, QE3, QE4, etc.; ZIRP, now NIRP in Japan & parts of Europe) by fucking retarded central banks (the academics who never held real jobs in the real economy).

In fact, think about this:

Historically, equities move in the opposite direction of bonds and credit instruments.

The fuckwad central banks have the so structurally damaged the global economy that asset classes that throughout all of economic history have moved in an inverse relationship are now perversely moving in the same direction (e.g. Bonds, even junk bonds, are now moving higher in correlated fashion as equities).

It's going to all end in a spectacular bust sooner rather than later, and only the most obtuse can't see and won't concede this inevitability.

2008 was the forest fire that they should've let burn through the underbrush.

Now, there's 10x the amount of scrub, kindling and flammable detritus to create an enormous economic wildfire because central banks never let things rebalance.

38   _   2016 Jul 18, 10:18pm  

freespeechforever says

Only a truly dumb, head-up-their-ass fuckwad would not concede the glaringly obvious FACT that equities have risen to the point that they have b/c of global, coordinated, super-aggressive monetary policy (QE1, QE2, QE3, QE4, etc.; ZIRP, now NIRP in Japan & parts of Europe) by fucking retarded central banks (the academics who never held real jobs in the real economy).

Yes because excess reserves is the mother milk for consumption profits

39   _   2016 Jul 18, 10:23pm  

freespeechforever says

Historically, equities move in the opposite direction of bonds and credit instruments

Their is some validity to this thesis .... rising inflation and Fed rate hikes due come at the end of the cycle

40   _   2016 Jul 18, 10:24pm  

adarmiento says

Well I remember watching CNBC during 2012-2015 and hearing a wide range of pundits saying that 1/2 of the growth in the S&P 500 was due to QE.

Nah.... massive excessive reserves yes.. velocity no...

Then again you can read the Fed's recent White Paper agreeing that #QE didn't do much for the economy

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