patrick.net

Holy cantilever Batman! For 124 Ascot Court Unit B
see:
http://goo.gl/maps/MgE3B

Why are you not buying them for yourself?

The one with the bridge was listed in the 300's a few years back as I recall.

leo707 says

Why are you not buying them for yourself?

I'm a single father of three kids. No extra cash for investing unfortunately.

gregpfielding says

leo707 says

Why are you not buying them for yourself?

I'm a single father of three kids. No extra cash for investing unfortunately.

Thanks for the reply. I am not trying to be an asshole and my intention is not to annoy, but these are questions that I have wondered when a real estate agent claims to have an "amazing" deal for the public.

So...another question...if these condos really are a great deal...Do you not have friends,family,close business associates, etc. that you would alert if a good deal pops up? Why broadcast it to the public?

leo707 said: Why broadcast it to the public?
Well, maybe he knows there are folks on Pat.net with small children on the OTHER side of the hills who would jump at the chance for Moraga schools for less than half a million. Hint, hint...

leo707 says

So...another question...if these condos really are a great deal...Do you not have friends,family,close business associates, etc. that you would alert if a good deal pops up? Why broadcast it to the public?

I do have one investor client who is very interested. However, they are out of town for the next few weeks and I don't expect that these will still be available.

I made it public with the hopes that someone else might be interested and call me.

EBGuy says

leo707 said: Why broadcast it to the public?

Well, maybe he knows there are folks on Pat.net with small children on the OTHER side of the hills who would jump at the chance for Moraga schools for less than half a million. Hint, hint...

Yeah, but then they would be stuck in Moraga. ;)

So, all this talk about amazing investments is a ruse? Hmmm...maybe...

A quick look at the rents on CL for the Ascot Drive area:
http://sfbay.craigslist.org/search/apa/eby?query=ascot&zoomToPosting=&minAsk=&maxAsk=&bedrooms=&housing_type=&nh=57

Not many data points, but it looks like a 1br goes for the $1500-1600 range, and a 2br would go for just under $2000.

A quick and dirty look at the Redfin listing for the strongly recommended 1br:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Moraga/2059-Ascot-Dr-94556/unit-108/home/1905092

The RF mortgage calculator estimates the payment at $1651/month, then there is also the HOA at $425/month. Using the 2011 taxes at $2595 (or $216/25/month) it brings the total expense to $2292.25. This is before any maintenance, additional HOA assessments, etc.

So, if in a dreamland this 1/br can rent for $2K an investor is still in the hole $300 bucks a month before they spend any money on maintenance or improvements.

I know these numbers are pretty rough, but this does not begin to smell like it should be viewed as a strong investment opportunity.

What makes this such an amazing find?

gregpfielding says

leo707 says

So...another question...if these condos really are a great deal...Do you not have friends,family,close business associates, etc. that you would alert if a good deal pops up? Why broadcast it to the public?

I do have one investor client who is very interested. However, they are out of town for the next few weeks and I don't expect that these will still be available.

I made it public with the hopes that someone else might be interested and call me.

OK, fair enough. Can you give a little more detail on why you think these properties are a good investment? It has been some decades sense I have bought an investment property, so I am open to the possibility that I am missing something here.

gregpfielding says

I don't expect that these will still be available.

Hmmm...the 1/br has just had a 10k price drop, but has been on the market for over a month already.

For the reasons EBGuy mentioned, I suspect that you may be correct about the 2 and 3/br being sold soon, but probably not to an investor.

leo707 says

What makes this such an amazing find?

HOA, taxes, and insurance would total right around $700/mo.

If it rented for $1500, you would net about $800/mo or just under 10K per year. For a cash buyer, that's about 4% annual returns.

4% is completely lousy for most investors. However, there is a crop of investors who would prefer to take a more conservative return in exchange for investing in the most desirable places, like Moraga. Plus, with the college, there will never be a problem finding renters.

I suppose it's partly a belief that the nicest areas will outperform middle-areas over time. And, partly that some very wealthy, conservative investors like to invest only in areas where they are comfortable. For them, it's not that they even really care about the return. They have to put their cash somewhere and investing some in Moraga real estate seems reasonable.

leo707 says

For the reasons EBGuy mentioned, I suspect that you may be correct about the 2 and 3/br being sold soon, but probably not to an investor.

Actually I would guess that they will go to investors. There are other 2 and 3 bedroom condos for sale at better prices that must be owner occupied.

The rentable ones are so few and far-between that they sell for a premium.

leo707 said: Yeah, but then they would be stuck in Moraga. ;)
Well, you can't have everything. And if you crave excitement, why buy a condo when you can own a home.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Oakland/1128-Willow-St-94607/home/1455018

gregpfielding says

HOA, taxes, and insurance would total right around $700/mo.

If it rented for $1500, you would net about $800/mo or just under 10K per year. For a cash buyer, that's about 4% annual returns.

Including maintenance, and the return would drop bellow 4% annual. Yeah, not that great.

gregpfielding says

However, there is a crop of investors who would prefer to take a more conservative return in exchange for investing in the most desirable places, like Moraga.

I can see the appeal, but for me the prices would have to be better.

gregpfielding says

Plus, with the college, there will never be a problem finding renters.

The last property I owned was in a college town. The renting cycle can be very cyclical and if it goes vacant at the wrong time you could be hit with several months of vacancy. Not to mention that college kids can wreak a place pretty quickly. I had a group of guys in one unit that never mentioned to me that the wax gasket on the bottom of their toilet had failed and that for a few months sewage was leaking out and under the linoleum. Yes, they lived with a bathroom that smelled like an outhouse, yes I had to tear almost the whole thing out. The best renters I had there were single mom's. Anyway, vacancy and damage will eat into that 4%.

Also, I have a friend who lives in (and owns) a condo near the Moraga Shopping Center. They got hit with an HOA assessment to fix the parking area/driveway for about $20k per unit. Yeah, I know that is pretty uncommon, but not outside the realm of possibility and ads risk that a year or two of profits will disappear. I have never been part of an HOA, so maybe my fears here are blown out of proportion.

EBGuy says

leo707 said: Yeah, but then they would be stuck in Moraga. ;)

Well, you can't have everything. And if you crave excitement, why buy a condo when you can own a home.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Oakland/1128-Willow-St-94607/home/1455018

Ah, haha, when I saw that link I thought it was going to be East Oakland. West Oakland is on its way UP!
http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Fear-white-influx-will-erase-West-Oakland-history-4874291.php

EBGuy says

leo707 said: Yeah, but then they would be stuck in Moraga. ;)

Well, you can't have everything. And if you crave excitement, why buy a condo when you can own a home.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Oakland/1128-Willow-St-94607/home/1455018

Why buy that overpriced little home in West Oakland, when you can buy a 5/br 2300+ sq/ft "Bright and stunning" home for just under $350K?
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Oakland/2855-62nd-Ave-94605/home/1862673

leo707 says

Also, I have a friend who lives in (and owns) a condo near the Moraga Shopping Center. They got hit with an HOA assessment to fix the parking area/driveway for about $20k per unit. Yeah, I know that is pretty uncommon, but not outside the realm of possibility and ads risk that a year or two of profits will disappear. I have never been part of an HOA, so maybe my fears here are blown out of proportion.

Stuff like that does happen. Not often, but it still does. Yet another reason why owning rental property isn't as much fun as people think.

leo707 said: West Oakland is on its way UP!
Seven minutes to Ess Eff via BART. You may even be able to bike into the City in our lifetime (I'm not holding my breath though). Mandela Parkway is a nice stretch of road. I've biked that with the kids on the way to the port parks and JLS.