patrick.net

Bap33 says

I voted for Ross Perot and I would have voted for Ron Paul but he was GOPed out.
I want the right person doing the right job. Obama is a joke that has went so
much better than the leftists ever imagined that they are having trouble coming
up with a "next thing" to use to remove your freedoms.

What are the main differences between a conservative and a Republican?

SiO2 says

moved here from the midwest in the early 90s. Not dirt poor but not rich either. I was shocked at house prices. In my midwest city, a reasonable 4br at that time was 90k. A reasonable 4br in Santa Clara city was about 250k. Since at least the 90s at least it has been more expensive here.

sounds very reasonable mid 90s with over 2000 sq ft. to find a home for 189-225K....
adjusted for inflation its rather same to 1975..

edvard2 says

There was another housing bubble in the 70's. Another in the mid-late 80's, another during the first tech boom in and around the late 90's-2000,

there was only one tech boom it lasted from 1970 to year 2000. You wont see anything like it again. The public discovered tech in post 1995 era and still wrongly believe it still exists..
This propped the housing market since 1998.. but eventually that too will correct back to normal years...

thomaswong.1986 says

edvard2 says

There was another housing bubble in the 70's. Another in the mid-late 80's, another during the first tech boom in and around the late 90's-2000,

there was only one tech boom it lasted from 1970 to year 2000. You wont see anything like it again. The public discovered tech in post 1995 era and still wrongly believe it still exists..
This propped the housing market since 1998.. but eventually that too will correct back to normal years...

Hi Thomas - long time no see. For reference, I left you another response on the pledge of allegiance thread. Overall I think I have proven my point on who you are and what you are all about. So I am willing to let you go here. But (as I note in detail over there) if you want to go back and start build back an element of credibility, a very simple yes or no question is waiting for you.

But I digress. Seeing you here, telling people to wait for "eventually" before they buy, can I ask, in all sincerity, how long is "eventually" in your book?

Incidentally, I have found an updated version of your prescious FHFA chart for the SFBA, and lets just say, its not looking good for you and your "reversion to the mean" occurring anytime soon. Right now, its basically a major major asskicking (up 31% in the last 2 years - and another 2 years of peoples lives flushed down the toilet "waiting")

http://www.fhfa.gov/default.aspx?Page=86&Area=MSA&AreaID=41884&PurchaseQtr=1991Q4&ValuationQtr=2013Q2&Price=$100

Plug in San Jose and basically you will see about the same thing there.

So anyway, that's the new question for you here. How much longer are you going to advise random people on patnet to "wait" for a reversion to the mean that hasn't happened in 24 years straight (IMO) may not happen for another 50+?

It will be interesting to see how you respond here. My guess is you wont actually answer.. in the past ive asked you this and you've simply run away... so my guess is that is what you will do, or give me an irrelevant response based on your patented Chewbacca Defense

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=chewbacca%20defense

I guess we will see.

CDon says

Incidentally, I have found an updated version of your prescious FHFA chart for the SFBA, and lets just say, its not looking good for you and your "reversion to the mean" occurring anytime soon. Right now, its basically a major major asskicking (up 31% in the last 2 years - and another 2 years of your life flushed down the toilet "waiting")

http://www.fhfa.gov/default.aspx?Page=86&Area=MSA&AreaID=41884&PurchaseQtr=1991Q4&ValuationQtr=2013Q2&Price=$100

So you refute Shiller studies and pricing history? But to answer your question, no SFBA has not yet corrected.. its still very much irrational priced. There is no Chewbacca Defense needed here.. other regions like Miami and Vegas are indeed back to their long term trend. So as i states after their correction.. go buy and be sure not to trip over the bodies.

http://www.fhfa.gov/default.aspx?Page=86&Area=MSA&AreaID=29820&PurchaseQtr=1992Q1&ValuationQtr=2013Q2&Price=$100

If I am the fool you paint me to be why try to discredit me.. or is it i made too many good points and now fear

on your side has taken hold... I have no direct or indirect interest in seeing higher home prices.. I am not

tied to any RE transactions perhaps like you.. I do believe like Carl Guardino above has stated higher RE prices in SV

plaque and impair our local business/economy.. On whose side would you rather be with ....

thomaswong.1986 says

So you refute Shiller studies and pricing history?

For starters I appreciate an on point response. In re: refuting shiller, no I don't think its necessary to correct him as I think he is correct, but that said, do you recall what I told you earlier about how long that may take and the mechanism by which "reversion to the mean" will occur?

In summary he noted certain areas like SF have had a premium attached to them for a long time -- but that wont always be the case because (and I shit you not on this) he said they will build new cities thereby alleviating the premium on areas like SF.

http://www.ryanavent.com/blog/?p=403

Now sit back for a moment, and think about what I just told you. He basically said you have to wait til they build ENTIRE FREAKING NEW CITIES before you will see true "reversion to the mean.

So basically that is what you are waiting for her Thomas. According to Shiller, eventually they will fill up the actual bay, build a new city called "Pelosi, CA" in the landfill, and then suddenly, the area will be no longer overpriced.

No of course when that happens, you and I and all our kids and grandkids, and their grandkids will be wormfood. Still, in the year 2236 some graduate lackey from the Shiller Institute will pull out his now 300 year old chart...match up the nominal price has now intersected with the inflation price at the 3million dollar mark (its in the 300K range today btw) and he will say, "well what do you know, T Wong was right after all"!

Oh and for the record, in terms of "eventually" I am looking for a number here. If you wish to be direct and to the point, how many years before you capitulate on your eventually thesis? 2 years? 5 Years?

CDon says

In summary he noted certain areas like SF have had a premium attached to them for a long time -- but that wont always be the case because (and I shit you not on this) he said they will build new cities thereby alleviating the premium on areas like SF.

SF prime has always been around for decades.. so where was this fictitious premium in decades past.. why wait until after 1998 ? even in mid 90s when home prices were 150-200 that was near 4x med incomes... which was typical for many cities.

For the Tech heavy south bay, that is only a temporary perception, when you realize that many jobs have been moved to other less costly states.. and that has already been happening during the housing boom.

its no secret many SouthBay employer hire far less locally vs other states.. Yes Intel will employ far more workers in Washington, NY, and Arizona.. that is where facilities upgrades and investments are going to.. and the State Governments are encouraging it.

So you see.. its not a Realtor monopoly out here.. there are other factors to consider... and they mean business...

BTW the landfill idea was cancelled back in the 60s.. so its a no go !

Dan8267 says

Government itself and laws should be completely independent of culture.

That would be dictatorship, not Democracy. Laws should be completely based on our culture and what the people actually want.

FortWayne says

That would be dictatorship, not Democracy. Laws should be completely based on our culture and what the people actually want.

you will have to excuse Dan,, he didnt learn anything about the Western Cultural and Tradition.. and has no clue to the origins of Democracy..

thomaswong.1986 says

SF prime has always been around for decades.. so where was this fictitious
premium in decades past.. why wait until after 1998 ? even in mid 90s when home
prices were 150-200 that was near 4x med incomes... which was typical for many
cities.

So why did it not happen before? Good question, but the ultimate answer is who knows. In NY, the hamptons were a haven for middle income people til the 1950s but after that it was finance types only. Still, im sure there were bitter types holding out hope well into the 70s or 80s waiting for the "good ol days" to return. It never happened, and now the hamptons is a rich people's haven, and the bitter holdouts are wormfood.

So as far as I (and apparently shiller) are concerned, it sucks for you, but it just so happened on your watch. Your old SFBA is gone Thomas. And it will continue to hemmorage away what you consider good jobs, yet confoudingly maintain prices you cannot possibly fathom til you too are worm food. Just be thankful you "got yours" and bought while it was still somewhat affordable

But that's at least that's my thoughts on where I see you ending up -- mostly because very few people can confidently say that an overperformance trend of 24 years in a row...and with absolutely no sign of "reverting" anytime soon...is worth waiting out.

But again, it goes back to my original question for tonight. Thusfar, anyone taking your advice to heart and wait for "reversion to the mean" is several years older and absolutely no closer to seeing it than when you first told them to wait. How much longer are you going to continue to irresponsibly tell them to "wait" before you conclude, "gee this isn't going to happen anytime soon"

Oh, and that's a serious question BTW. How many more years Thomas? 2014? 2016? 2020? I think you will run away or give me a Chewbacca answer (i.e. no dates to speak of) but we will see.

So til tomorrow, good night and good luck!

CDon says

So why did it not happen before? Good question, but the ultimate answer is who knows.

If you can justify inflated prices today, you should be able justify why they werent inflated back then.

CDon says

But again, it goes back to my original question for tonight. Thusfar, anyone taking your advice to heart and wait for "reversion to the mean" is several years older and absolutely no closer to seeing it than when you first told them to wait. How much longer are you going to continue to irresponsibly tell them to "wait" before you conclude, "gee this isn't going to happen anytime soon"

Oh, and that's a serious question BTW. How many more years Thomas? 2014? 2016? 2020? I think you will run away or give me a Chewbacca answer (i.e. no dates to speak of) but we will see.

For individuals its simple...

Its not a question of when ( what time ) to buy ... its about how much its actually you should pay for.. over the long run. Or in another words.. would those who overpaid ( and many who defaulted ) do so again or would they had offered far far less.

On the flip side.. once again.. Money does not fall out of the sky in SFBA.. Incomes are paid by employers.. so when prices are this high.. Employers will move operations elsewhere..and dont care if your a homeowner or renter. You can ask any 35+ year veteran CEO/CFO of SV company. And if you worked at Yahoo, Oracle, HP, and many others over similar years they already learned some of these hard lessons. Like I said many times.. you cant burn a candle at both ends, there has to be balance.

thomaswong.1986 says

For individuals its simple...

Its not a question of when ( what time ) to buy ...

Oh but it is Thomas. See, thing is you come here day after day, month after month, year after year, telling us that "reversion to the mean" is coming soon. And of course if that were true, then naturally no one would buy if massive deals were just around the corner.

And we thus, again are back at the quesiton which you continue to skirt around. How much longer before you conclude, "gee this isn't going to happen anytime soon" 2014? 2016? 2020? What year will it be when you start offering more realistic advice?

FortWayne says

Dan8267 says

Government itself and laws should be completely independent of culture.

That would be dictatorship, not Democracy. Laws should be completely based on our culture and what the people actually want.

Are you kidding? That would be terrible. What you describe is tyranny by the majority.

Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on dinner. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote.

If we let citizens vote on ways to violate other people's rights, we'd still have slavery in this country. Should the people be allowed to enact a law to bring about slavery, genocide, or rape through a ballet initiative? Democracy means voting on things that the state has the authority to do, not voting on things that would violate other people's rights.

By the way, America is not and has never been a democracy. There hasn't been a democracy on Earth in over two thousand years. Our system of government is a republic, which is an anti-thesis of democracy.

As for examples of governments heavily based on culture, just look towards the Middle East, particularly in regions dominated by Islamic control over the state. In such cultures, honor killing rape victims is common and would be completely legal.

Finally, the statement that a government independent of culture is dictatorship is simply false. Culture agnostic democracies are not only possible, but preferable. In such democracies the people vote on laws not based on culture. For example, tax policies, infrastructure spending, educational system, whether or not to go to war, penalties for crimes. And yes, none of these things should be even influenced by culture, and yes, that includes education. If the way you teach math, physics, history, economics, etc. is culture dependent, you teaching wrong.

thomaswong.1986 says

you will have to excuse Dan,, he didnt learn anything about the Western Cultural and Tradition.. and has no clue to the origins of Democracy..

Another attempt to Poison the Well by spreading outright lies. Tommy boy, I know you hate me, but it's getting old. If anything, your obsessive hatred of all things Dan just proves how awesome I am. Anyone who says something worth saying is going to piss off douche-bags who have no intelligent response but don't want others to hear the truth.

Getting a condensing remark from Tommy-boy is like getting a thumbs down from the Klu Klux Klan. It's just good publicity.

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Comptroller says

In ten years, the GOP will be holding its conventions permanently in zoos, with RNC leadership stuffed in cages between the honey badger and the Tasmanian devil.

Well, that's where all the Rinos are.

Dan8267 says

Should the people be allowed to enact a law to bring about slavery, genocide, or rape through a ballet initiative?

I'd say anyone willing to dress up in Ballet costumes on election day should be allowed to enact any law they want!

tatupu70 says

What are the main differences between a conservative and a Republican?

my post messed when I clicked it, I wrote a long one. I will get back in near the end of the day and give it another shot.

Dan8267 says

In such democracies the people vote on laws not based on culture. For example, tax policies, infrastructure spending, educational system, whether or not to go to war, penalties for crimes. And yes, none of these things should be even influenced by culture, and yes, that includes education.

That sounds great in theory. But how are you going to enforce that?

In reality, culture strongly affects beliefs about what is moral and what is immoral. And those beliefs will tend to influence how people vote. I'm not saying that's necessarily a good thing, but it happens.

Even our cherished belief in "rights" comes from Western culture. Am I wrong?

freak80 says

That sounds great in theory. But how are you going to enforce that?

Like many things, "enforcement" is not the answer. Encouragement is. One cannot enforce a principle like one can a law.

Any law that violates this principle should be challenged and overturned in court. There should be a Constitutional Amendment to affirm this principle, but it would be up to the court system to respect this principle.

The way to encourage that the law doesn't violate this principle is to encourage others to adopt this idea and recognize that culture agnostic government is inherently better than culture dependent government.

freak80 says

Even our cherished belief in "rights" comes from Western culture

I doubt the concept of rights existed only in Western culture. Certainly the concept of "property rights" existed going back to the Stone Age. Hey, that's my stone axe.

The invention of Democracy came from ancient Greece and was adopted by the Romans until their democracy deteriorated into a republic. You could call Athens the birthplace of democracy.

However, even though a culture of intellectualism and reasoning will contribute many ideas to government, those ideas are ones that don't force cultural preference onto others.

edvard2 says

Yeah- the blue state model. Seeing as how California has the largest economy
in the US, bigger than all 49 other states combined, with NY, and MA not far
behind tells me that the "Blue" states know something about doing things right.
Like making TONS of money.

How are most of those red states doing? Yeah.... thought so.

See you are confusing private and public sectors here.

The Blue State model refers to the big bloated, union and pension heavy municipal and state governments that are bankrupting city after city in Democrat run states/cities with their incompetence and greed.

California is uniquely blessed with beautiful land, climate, and the world's most productive agricultural land that will attract private money regardless of the mathematical illiterates that run our government. The Uber rich libs in Silicon Valley and Hollywood can afford dysfunctional and expensive government. The middle class can't.

California's government could afford to be this stupid for a long time based on the massive size of the private sector economy.

Now if you want to rank government services from education on down with Red States - have at it.

Next - try to find Red States that are having massive bankrupties like Stocton, San Bernardino, Vallejo and Detroit.

Dan8267 says

The way to encourage that the law doesn't violate this principle is to encourage others to adopt this idea and recognize that culture agnostic government is inherently better than culture dependent government.

I guess you've got your work cut out for you.

Are there examples of such culture-agnostic governments today? Are there examples of culture-agnostic governments which are democracies or republics?

socal2 says

Next - try to find Red States that are having massive bankrupties like
Stocton, San Bernardino, Vallejo and Detroit.

LOL, this has all the qualitites of a red state: cronyism, corruption, and shit.

Bankrupt Alabama county threatens to end workout plan

http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2013-10-17/news/sns-rt-us-usa-bankruptcy-jefferson-20131017_1_bankrupt-alabama-county-county-manager-tony-petelos-commission-president-david-carrington

socal2 says

Next - try to find Red States that are having massive bankrupties

Gould, AR
Detroit, MI
Prichard AL
Jefferson County, AL
Moffet, OK
Boise County, ID

Vicente says

Gould, AR
Detroit, MI
Prichard AL
Jefferson County, AL
Moffet,
OK
Boise County, ID

Ha ha! Including Detroit? Detroit hasn't had a republican mayor or city council in over 50 years! Oh, but you got me - it is technically a Red State with its current governor.

Same with Jefferson County.

Providing examples of tiny hick towns with populations less than 2,000 people is laughable. Same deal pointing to a couple unique cases that involve corruption.

I was talking about the failure of the Blue State model of defined benefit pension plans taking down HUGE cities with massive populations.

socal2 says

Next - try to find Red States that are having massive bankrupties like
Stocton, San Bernardino, Vallejo and Detroit.

Those are cities that YOU listed, not states. And then you want to try and compare those cities TO "red states".

socal2 says

I was talking about the failure of the Blue State model of defined benefit
pension plans taking down HUGE cities with massive populations.

Then, again you refer to those cities as a "blue state model".

How retarded. You really are a right winger, aren't you?

Middle class government employees with pension plans should immediately have all of their assets seized. The proceeds must then be given to the CEOs of the the five largest financial corporations in America, tax free.

In the name of God. Amen.

freak80 says

Are there examples of such culture-agnostic governments today? Are there examples of culture-agnostic governments which are democracies or republics?

It's a matter of degree, not a litmus test. Western nations are more culture agnostic than Eastern or Middle Eastern ones. The Soviet Union was quite culture agnostic, which goes to show you that a single good quality does not make up for a multitude of bad ones. Still the Soviet Union did stop a lot of ethnic violence, which flared up again at when the Soviet Union fell.

upisdown says

Then, again you refer to those cities as a "blue state model".

OK - lets look at just the states.

"Public pension costs swamp revenues of 10 U.S. states -Moody's"
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/27/usa-states-pensions-moodys-idUSL2N0F21RD20130627

Vast majority are Blue States. And these Blue States have by far and away the largest unfunded pension liabilities.......and highest taxes.

Even the Blue States that are blessed with big Private Sector economies (California, New York and Illinois) are getting crushed by incompetent government management.

freak80 says

Middle class government employees with pension plans should immediately have
all of their assets seized. The proceeds must then be given to the CEOs of the
the five largest financial corporations in America, tax free.

In the name of God. Amen.

Who is talking about CEO's?

What about the poor people (mostly minorities) who live in these cities like Stockton, Vallejo and San Bernardino who are watching their communities fall apart as these incompetent governments cut services and raise taxes so they can protect the pensions of a few thousand government workers?

Vallejo went through bankruptcy 5 years ago and did not reform pensions. They just cut services, raised taxes, letting the city fall apart - and lo and behold - they are going broke again.

Funny how that happens!
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/01/usa-municipality-vallejo-idUSL2N0HM05C20131001

Why do progs hate math and science and still believe in Ponzi schemes?

Why do progs put the wealth of a few thousand government union workers over the well-being of hundreds of thousands of tax payers who live in the cities like Stockton?

Dan8267 says

Should the people be allowed to enact a law to bring about slavery, genocide, or rape through a ballet initiative?

You are taking the extreme view. Slavery came and went because we all as society at some point changed our views on it. It's best government bases laws on what we want as people. Otherwise you get fascism/monarchy where government decided what we want and rest of us follow.

Best of course is small government, but that's not really an option anymore these days.

freak80 says

Middle class government employees with pension plans should immediately have all of their assets seized. The proceeds must then be given to the CEOs of the the five largest financial corporations in America, tax free.

In the name of God. Amen.

You say nothing about grinding these government employees up for fertilizer, or using them for medical experiments.

Are you a Marxist?

FortWayne says

Slavery came and went because we all as society at some point changed our views
on it.

Really? It just came and went? There wasn't a war involved?

tatupu70 says

FortWayne says

Slavery came and went because we all as society at some point changed our views

on it.

Really? It just came and went? There wasn't a war involved?

That was about States' Rights, silly!

(Specifically the right of states to allow their inhabitants to own people.)

tatupu70 says

FortWayne says

Slavery came and went because we all as society at some point changed our views

on it.

Really? It just came and went? There wasn't a war involved?

Yes and the majority won.

HydroCabron says

You say nothing about grinding these government employees up for fertilizer, or
using them for medical experiments.

Goodness no. That only happens to the poor minority citizens who are unfortunate enough to live in these bankrupt cities.

"Stockton's Poor Mired In Violence After Police Cuts"
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/03/18/stockton-poor-poverty-crime-california_n_1346096.html

socal2 says

Ha ha! Including Detroit?

You said Red State, and that's how it stands on current political maps. Don't quibble. Just because YOU base your judgement on whatever factoids float to the top instead of all of them.... well go ahead and try to rationalize this poor method, but you're not fooling the rest of us.

In any case, any of those easily destroys your thesis that bankruptcies are a uniquely Blue State phenomena.

thomaswong.1986 says

Liberals qouting Goldwater.. oh thats rich. You guys were
calling GW a nazi for decades.

As a political campaigner and strategist he was probably unmatched for his time period.

That doesn't mean we can't hate him or his political beliefs irregardless of his skill in his line of work.

Or enjoy a little schadenfreude at his expense since towards the end he started whining about all the people he had used politically started to exercise their vote according to the rhetoric he used to whip them up and organize them in the first place.

He was smart enough to see the writing on the wall: the political monster he had helped create would eventually destroy the Republican party and in so doing cause huge problems for the US.

Vicente says

You said Red State, and that's how it stands on current political maps. Don't quibble. Just because YOU base your judgement on whatever factoids float to the top instead of all of them.... well go ahead and try to rationalize this poor method, but you're not fooling the rest of us.

In any case, any of those easily destroys your thesis that bankruptcies are a uniquely Blue State phenomena.

the devil is always in the details...

Gould, AR -- All Democratic Party controlled City with no regard for US Constitution/Bill of Rights...
The least democratic town in the USA.. Bans Free Speech
http://gawker.com/5822031/is-arkansas-town-now-the-least-democratic-in-the-usa

Detroit, MI -- needless to say ! Democratic Party

Prichard AL -- another heavy democratic district/city

New Mayor taking more conservative approach to the problem...

Those are bold promises, some of which previous mayors have made but failed to live up to. The difference this time, Ephriam said, is leadership. He said he will work to systematically reform Prichard. He called for moving the pension system to a defined-contribution plan, similar to a 401(k).

Ephriam also said he would like to give police and firemen a raise, preferably through budget cuts elsewhere. He suggested selling the city’s money-losing golf course and public safety building. He suggested upgrading the city’s stadium to generate more revenue.

http://blog.al.com/live/2012/10/troy_ephriam_defeats_incumbent.html

Jefferson County, AL all democratic party running county
http://blog.al.com/spotnews/2012/11/presidential_politics_lifts_je.html

Moffet, OK -- Republican base with a odd case for BK

In 2007 the town filed for Chapter 9 bankruptcy after Oklahoma's attorney general declared it was operating a speed trap, and barred local police from issuing speeding citations. Without the steady stream of citation revenue generated from motorists passing through on U.S. Highway 64, the town is unable to manage the $200,000 in debts incurred by the former mayor.

Boise County, ID -- Another odd case for BK... lawsuit judgement infavor of developer.

Boise County, Idaho, has filed for municipal bankruptcy protection, but not because of falling tax revenue, rising spending, unfunded pension obligations or any of the other problems that have raised concern about city and county finances nationwide.

The small, rural county—which, despite its name, isn't home to the capital city of Boise—sought protection from its creditors this week because of an inability to pay a multimillion-dollar judgment against it, County Commissioner Robert A. Fry said.

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052748704005404576176841523443046

FortWayne says

Dan8267 says

Should the people be allowed to enact a law to bring about slavery, genocide, or rape through a ballet initiative?

You are taking the extreme view. Slavery came and went because we all as society at some point changed our views on it. It's best government bases laws on what we want as people. Otherwise you get fascism/monarchy where government decided what we want and rest of us follow.

If so, then the extreme view reflects our history. Throughout our history, the majority has suppressed minority through popular vote:
- the genocide of Native Americans and the taking of their lands
- the use of slavery
- the inability of blacks to vote
- the inability of women to vote (who couldn't vote to get the vote, either)
- segregation
- prohibition on interracial marriages
- prohibition on same-sex marriages
- prohibition on polygamous marriages
- blue laws
- arrests of women for wearing too little clothing on the beach (going back to the early 20th century!)
- poll taxes and Jim Crow Laws

Slavery wasn't voted out of existence. The north had to force the south at gunpoint to end it.

The Federal government had to send in the military to enforce desegregation against the will of the local voters.

Our history is ripe with examples of letting people vote their cultural preferences without restriction to not violating other people's rights, and the results are always disastrous.

thomaswong.1986 says

the devil is always in the details...

No, the original statement is flatly disproven. If original poster wishes to modify their claim that is fine by me, but the facts disprove original claim.