7
0

yawn


 invite response                
2013 Mar 8, 10:58am   23,788 views  94 comments

by thankshousingbubble   ➕follow (7)   💰tip   ignore  


Comments 1 - 40 of 94       Last »     Search these comments

1   Raw   2013 Mar 8, 11:54am  

As of now the above post shows - 1 like vs 3 dislikes, perfectly reflecting the pessimistic culture of this board as of now.
Patrick, if you are planning to generate income from buyers and sellers of real estate, the first thing you must do is turn this negative culture into an optimistic one. Buyers are not interested in all the garbage about real estate crashing in the middle of a boom. Buyers want to know why they should be buying, not get discouraged.

2   waiting_for_the_fall   2013 Mar 8, 12:06pm  

Maybe they are hitting disllike because Roberto is a snob. Most people don't like snobs. I think people are tired of Roberto calling everyone idiots, nitwits, etc if they don't agree that he is the master of his domain (Phoenix).

Big deal: he bought a bunch of crappy homes in a desert at the bottom of the market. Big whoopee.
Oh, you are so smart!! Blah, blah, blah, whoopteedo, blah.

3   mike2   2013 Mar 8, 12:43pm  

This was an open board for different opinions about Owning homes vs not owning? Also an open forum for debating the
value of investing etc. There was so Much Anti RE info on here and negativity about Real Estate etc. WHy renting is better and do not put your $$ into RE..put in elsewhere and on and on and on. Roberto only expressed and debated his personal findings and experience and backed it up with facts not just words... he made a hell of a lot of money the last 3-5 years while others called him stupid, arrogant etc. Bottom line to this point he has been right and his investments have soared.

It makes no difference why it happened, if it was fake or not, if the numbers are incorrect etc. The truth is he was right and the facts prove it. If you want to invest in RE it is your choice if not that is your choice as well. I think most of the haters were jealous of his success? He had the balls to do it and take the chance. If he failed it would have been on him but he did not and more power to him. You guys should have listened instead of being so negative. The door is still open but not as wide as before. Congrats Roberto...SOme Nit wit on here would repeat his MAntra 1000 times that RE is ALWAYS a declining asset? Well haven't heard from him lateley.

The Bears have Lost. THe Bulls have won. Game over for now!!

4   mike2   2013 Mar 8, 12:53pm  

Nothing wrong with calling people names that describe their comments or actions. If a debate is about facts and turns into a name calling without facts. Your name calling was always in reaction to the verbal attacks on you or your ideas.

Bottom line the Patrick.net supporters are Big time wrong in their analysis of the situation. Let them continue to Rent. No harm done. We need renters to pay the mortgages for us!!

Let them Eat Cake!

5   mike2   2013 Mar 8, 12:58pm  

Good point. The prices may not remain this high for long. I plan to sell several properties in the next 18 months or so bc I want to play it safe and the equity increased rapidly enough that I am fine with leaving some $$ on the table for the next guy bc as we all know if you hold out for every dime you will get burned. When and if it tanks again I believe it will be worse than the one we just had. You never know where the top is until AFTER you have been there.

Now we know where the bottom was and we rose from the ashes but we did not know it until it had passed. Don't hold out for the last dollar.

6   MsBennet   2013 Mar 8, 1:14pm  

Roberto can be congratulated for his adept real estate buying knowledge in his area, but his self-righteous attitude makes us not like him all that much. I have met a more than a few really accomplished people in my life, and I am amazed at their humility. That's a sign of a really successful person to me.

Also Roberto's skills are not that easily reproduced in other areas of the country where foreclosure weren't "let out" so liberally as in Phoenix. Well, congratulations to Roberto anyway. You shouldn't have anything to prove to us

7   mike2   2013 Mar 8, 1:28pm  

Thnaks. Will ck it out.

8   mike2   2013 Mar 8, 1:36pm  

I agree I have met many humble self accomplished folks as well
but this forum was quite different as I followed it over a few years. It developed into a VERBAL debate over economics and especially RE. There was a continuall verbal debate going on and it got quite verbal at times and name calling all over the place. Roberto was in the minority opinion on this forum and took
much verbal abuse and Hate mongering in my opinion. He just gave it back to them as they dished it out. He wasn't the only one partaking in it.He stood his ground and did not back down. I actually feel the "bears" wanted to gang up and egg him on for various reasons and also enjoyed the banteering themselves.

Now enough time has passed and it is overwhelmingly clear he was on the right track and had the right ideas. To me it is clear and was always clear that he had the right ideas. It is not the end of the world it is just an economic theory that worked for him and many others who had the balls to take the risk. I don't think it is ever about Humility...I am sure in private life he is humble but in a debateful atmosphere few of us are.

9   swebb   2013 Mar 8, 1:57pm  

waiting_for_the_fall says

Maybe they are hitting disllike because Roberto is a snob. Most people don't like snobs. I think people are tired of Roberto calling everyone idiots, nitwits, etc if they don't agree that he is the master of his domain (Phoenix).

I don't really think he's a snob. He can be smug, and he definitely doesn't mince words...His responses can devolve into name calling at times, but he's usually right. There are a lot of nitwits and idiots around these parts. I can't speak for Roberto, but I can tell you that I don't mind a dissenting opinion, or a different interpretation of the facts...but it's tough to bite my tongue when some idiot is spouting shit based on wishes, hope and deluded reasoning. At the end of the day Roberto was right about his buy decisions...sure, you might think of them as crappy homes in the desert, but his read sure appears to be a good one. In my book that gives him more credibility than the guy who has been predicting a further 40% crash that hasn't (yet?) materialized...especially when they don't back it up with sound logic and data.

10   RentingForHalfTheCost   2013 Mar 8, 11:53pm  

robertoaribas says

Who was right? Who was wrong?

One thing I learned in life, is delivery is much more important than right verses wrong. I think most of that knowledge came from my very patient wife. ;) I can get to that engineer definite answer, but that skill does nothing in a human exchange if it is colored with emotion. If you goal is to persuade people, then being right is a very small part of your solution.

11   mike2   2013 Mar 9, 1:42am  

Your wife is going to like hearing that! You might get Lucky tonight!!

12   everything   2013 Mar 9, 2:30am  

Lol, Roberto not the only one who bought the dip.

13   StillLooking   2013 Mar 9, 5:27am  

Renting has clearly been better than owning. Look at the stock market.

If your money was somewhere other than housing, besides cash, one has done much better renting.

And if the government continues the nonsense, the gold house ratio will only continue to rise. How can it make sense to put all your eggs in an artificial market?

14   David Losh   2013 Mar 9, 5:47am  

robertoaribas says

Everyone on this site was warned that prices would climb.

Yes, of course prices would rise from a crash of the global Real Estate market place. No kidding! You're a genius!.

How did you figure that out? Man, what a mystery.

but the fact is we did have a Real Estate market crash, globally. As a life long Real Estate investor I find that a problem.

robertoaribas says

When they makeup the nonsense that they have on here in response to actual, thorough and factual analysis I have done,

You only have sales data, the same as all Real Estate sales people use to make commissions. That is based on the greater fool theory of Real Estate.

Today's buyer needs to be very wary of this kind of hype, buy as though this is an investment that will lose value, and figure out how to get this purchase paid for quickly, with as little interest going to the bank as possible.

The only equity you get will be what you create by paying principal.

Hey, I thought you were going to stick with your Real Facts about Phoenix Real Estate sales forum.

15   David Losh   2013 Mar 9, 5:48am  

robertoaribas says

I was the only one to buy the chips!

What a maroon.

16   mike2   2013 Mar 9, 5:49am  

Not really. I have a nice amount in the stock mkt and it has only come back to where it was

5 years ago. Plus with stocks you have to put up the entire amount in cash usually.

With RE you can by on 5-20% down. If you bought a few years ago for $200k with 10% down. Your house may be woirht $350k-$400k or more in certain areas. SO your $20k investmwnt made you $150k-$200k. Of course like any investment you have to buy and sell at the right time.

I bought a few cheap rentals for $85k-$10k in the last few years now they have doubled plus returned $13-$1600 per month every month since then. I did WAY better than my stocks. For me there is no comparison.

17   David Losh   2013 Mar 9, 6:02am  

robertoaribas says

If you weren't so incredibly stupid,

So, you've got nothing, once again. It's just insults, and bragging right.

There's nothing for me to be embarrassed about. You made your choices, I made mine, my case is based on broad economic data, and yours is based on sales charts.

There isn't much there to think about.

You have pointed out you are done. Your choices are to sell now, and ride out the next cycle. That indicates to me this is your first time to the show, because there is always another cycle.

So what are you going to do? Prices have risen to obscene levels across the country, so where will be the upside today?

You're done.

18   David Losh   2013 Mar 9, 6:04am  

mike2 says

I bought a few cheap rentals for $85k-$10k in the last few years now they have doubled plus returned $13-$1600 per month

BS.

$80K for $1300 rent. You're a schill.

19   StillLooking   2013 Mar 9, 7:54am  

mike2 says

Not really. I have a nice amount in the stock mkt and it has only come back to where it was

5 years ago. Plus with stocks you have to put up the entire amount in cash usually.

With RE you can by on 5-20% down. If you bought a few years ago for $200k with 10% down. Your house may be woirht $350k-$400k or more in certain areas. SO your $20k investmwnt made you $150k-$200k. Of course like any investment you have to buy and sell at the right time.

I bought a few cheap rentals for $85k-$10k in the last few years now they have doubled plus returned $13-$1600 per month every month since then. I did WAY better than my stocks. For me there is no comparison.

Housing has not come back to where it was. And in my neck of the woods, housing never got all that cheap due to the government shenanigans. And don't tell me that you did better in housing buying at the bottom than one would have done in the stock market buying at the bottom.

20   postbubblesucess   2013 Mar 9, 8:10am  

Feels so good to be so right. As I predicted, my property increased in value in almost 1 year since I been there. What I didn't see was that it would go up over 28%. Two of my neighbors have their units up for sale, same square footage as mine. They have em listed for 75k and 80k. I bought mine for 43.5k cash (REO). Never thought I'd be able to ask 80k for it today. Wonder what it'll be worth in June. What about in 3 more years? Should I sell, rent it out, stay there til the price goes up to 150k and then sell? Comments from other people who killed it would be greatly appreciated. Thanks

21   REpro   2013 Mar 9, 12:57pm  

As long as last bubble bust was easy to predict, current RE market situation is difficult to predict. I would not CRITIC anyone who did not purchase and would not PRIZE anyone who purchased. Every market and everyone’s personal and financial situation is different. For Las Vegas or Phoenix 10 houses can be same value as one or a few houses in BA, or 100 houses in Detroit. Combination of cash flow and appreciation can bring similar return on equity in every market if is purchased selectively and in right time. RE is great investment vehicle but only for people who fill comfortable with, others can success much better in other professional fields. Recent upturn in western states took everybody by surprise, including Roberto, who is now stressed-out b/s he doesn’t know if he should take chips from the table or keep renting-out.

22   thomaswong.1986   2013 Mar 9, 3:51pm  

robertoaribas says

Every possible conspiracy was used as a reason to ignore all of the data.

and yet the sales numbers per Robert Shiller prove.. prices over the long run only track inflation.

but why did people expect after 2000 appreciation of 20-30-40% year over year for the long term 20-30 years... not to mention home prices never go down, and certainly never went down from 1989 to 1995.

why did people ignore the existence of the housing bubble.. they still dont..

Robert Shiller - On Home Prices Always Going Up (7min)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d__GPqOVNbE

23   thomaswong.1986   2013 Mar 9, 3:56pm  

robertoaribas says

1. Multiple offers on homes ( they are all lies)

2. Disappearing inventory. ( bank manipulation will end soon)

3. Job numbers improving for two years.( all manipulation and fake)

4. Drops in foreclosures. ( banks sitting on them)

5. Rising asking prices. ( data can't be trusted)

6. Price to rent ratio at levels favorable to buying. ( prices should be at 1935 levels or whatever)

1. no "best practices, regulations or full disclosure" to prevent price manipulation.
2. no requirement to list all for sale property
3 questionable since labor participation pool is shrinking. and certainly in Silicon Valley.. we are down by half of public tech and start up companies we saw. majority of our workers are outside of SFBA and the state.
4. yes expected
5. as in SFBA.. foolish buyers.. given 1-3 above.
6. as in SFBA.. no shortage of housing, just irrational pricing. and certainly when SV enjoyed a booming economy in 1970-2000 such irrational pricing didnt exist to the extent we have seen post 2000. and yes.. as shiller has provided, prices are usually flat.

24   thomaswong.1986   2013 Mar 9, 4:11pm  

robertoaribas says

If the last bubble was so easy to predict,

we had something called a 'mortgage crisis" are you aware of anyone in govt talking about a Pricing Bubble ... where home prices should go down back to normal.

"mortgage reduction program" wow! the public back in 1989-1991 would have gone ape shit at such an idea...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=endscreen&NR=1&v=uZSlOifcEo4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=endscreen&NR=1&v=uZSlOifcEo4

25   David Losh   2013 Mar 10, 12:03am  

robertoaribas says

take over my threads

You're right, I apologize, this is your thread.

I got carried away, and gave you credibility by commenting here.

robertoaribas says

Yeah. Everybody did what I did: sell 4 investment homes before the crash, pocket 400k and wait till the bottom to invest it all... It was super common, sure thing.

I'll only respond to your nonsense on other people's posts.

BTW a lot of people sold in 2006, and 2007, and invested elsewhere for a more sure return.

26   StillLooking   2013 Mar 10, 1:30am  

robertoaribas says

"And don't tell me you did better in housing buying at the bottom, than you would have done in the stock market buying at the bottom."

Why shouldn't I tell you that? Because you prefer not to know? For example, I bought one home for 80k with 30% down... 24k. The mortgage with everything is 475 a month, it is rented for 925 a month.... The home would sell for 130k today...

So I make 400 a month on a 24k investment, and in just one year, I could net 60k if I sold....

So yeah, that is a f#%ing ton better than your stocks have done. Don't be a simpleton like David the lush...

I was busy buying WFM and Apple. Tell me you did better.

27   mike2   2013 Mar 10, 5:59am  

So thomas...What is your point? Accept the fact that right now in the current economy you are and have been wrong.All your
predictions for RE have been proven to be off base and incorrect.
It doesn't matter if jobs areless in SV or most jobs are out of state like you say. What matters is what RE is selling for and what buyers are willing to pay for it. Right now it is selling for a hell of a lot and buyers are jumping thru hoops to buy homes and overbidding almost everywhere.Move on with whatever you
want to invest in.

28   mike2   2013 Mar 10, 6:11am  

No, I was one of those saying to buy low- middle price properties and get a 15-20% return on your investment thru rent and/or fix the property hold and flip. I did both. Still doing it. I bought a property in Arough prt of Oakland 2 motnd ago for $86k. It was already rented for $1250.00 per month sec. 8. Renter wanted to stay so that is fine. That is about a 17% return on the cash investment. Never lost a days rent and have not had to do any repairs which if I did will be minor bc Sec 8 requires homes to be in decent condition before they allow them to be rented.
Home is currently worth app. $135k

29   mike2   2013 Mar 10, 6:18am  

Did you listen to Robert Schiller last week interview? I mean if he is an "expert" then we are all in trouble. After his rambling on about RE for 5 minutes at the end of his discussion he says ,"I really don't know" Real Esate could go up or it could go Down"? DUH.. Really. my 5 year old kid could have come to that conclusion. Schiller is wrong 1/2 the time just like Peter Schifft.
Even a closk is right twice a day.

Forget those "experts" just figure out where your market is locally and adjust to it. Don't over analyze.

30   StillLooking   2013 Mar 10, 6:29am  

robertoaribas says

He'll yes I did better... The rental income plus doubling of my investment beats apple like a dog over the past two years... How is apple doing these days?

Right, you ten times your investment. And apple will probably be doing better than the housing market going forward. But I sold apple at the high and bought google.

31   mike2   2013 Mar 10, 6:33am  

I Bought them for $80lk- $100k not $10k..my bad typo.
Yes, I do rent then for that an even more. Just bought one in Oakland for $86k rent it for $1250.00 The house came with the renter..did not lose 1 day rent. 17% return on my investment plus future appeciation. It is worth $135k right now. After 1-2 years I will sell it and take the gain before the next "crash".

If not I can still enjoy a 17% return on the cash investment.

32   mike2   2013 Mar 10, 6:38am  

Figures don't lie. Bit liars figure.

33   mike2   2013 Mar 10, 7:27am  

Who cares a damn about what the CAR or NAR says about starter homes etc.? WTF does that have to do with what we are talking about? We are talking about how good of an investment RE is currently and in the last 5 years since the crash VS all the Bears who were and are still living in denial and saying don't ever, ever ever buy RE! We are showing how wrong that is, was and currently is. If you are making tons of cash flow each month and your equity is increasing rapidly how can you argue the facts?

Quit being in denial and join the party. Parties don't last forever as we all know!

34   mike2   2013 Mar 10, 7:37am  

I have lived in the SFBA all my life 50 plus years. Sure there are ups and downs in any market and any economy but even in the worst of the Great Recession SF and the surrounding cities struggled but they did not implode or estruct. It created many opportunities for the wise folks that saw an opportunity and willing to take a risk. I did not expect it to rebound so quickly but it has and why not take advantage of it? Go back and look at rents and RE prices over th e last 40 years and what do you see? Especially in SF itself? An elderly family fiendof mine was given a 3 plex near the Filmore bc she was the housecleaner of a wealthy lady who had no family when she died so she left the property to her house cleaner in the early 1960's. It was worth around $30k back then. Today the lady is in her mid 90's and going to an old folks home and will be selling that property for around $1.3 M. At the very peak of the mkt in 2006 it was appraised at $.450m. SO it went down a little from the peak..what really matters is what it is currently worth and it went up over $1.1M since she received it.

Market is HOT!!

35   mike2   2013 Mar 10, 7:40am  

IF SFBA continues with job losses? Hell, that has been happening all my life but people keep coming here and buying and buying and buying!New jobs are created? Economies change! We adjust. More people in the Bay area than ever right now. If, If , IF! If a nuclear bomb is set to us from Korea we will all be damned! If my grandmother had balls she would be my Grandfather!

36   RentingForHalfTheCost   2013 Mar 10, 7:46am  

postbubblesucess says

What about in 3 more years? Should I sell, rent it out, stay there til the price goes up to 150k and then sell?

Why just 150K? Wait for 400 Billion for christs sake. Where is your good old American Greed? Did you not get the "Screw the next generation" hand-out in high school. You should ashamed for selling out at just a 4x multiple. The land/home owners are the chosen people. Everyone else must pay!

37   RentingForHalfTheCost   2013 Mar 10, 7:47am  

mike2 says

I have lived in the SFBA all my life 50 plus years.

Statistically, then, if you live another 50 you will experience a wallop of a city crash. Nothing destroys value faster than the ground shaking. ;) Be ready for it. We live on borrowed time in the SFBA.

38   RentingForHalfTheCost   2013 Mar 10, 7:51am  

mike2 says

It is worth $135k right now

It is worth what you can actually sell it for. Not what you think you can sell if for. In many ways these number are far different. Selling it is really the only way to know the number.

39   thomaswong.1986   2013 Mar 10, 7:54am  

mike2 says

Who cares a damn about what the CAR or NAR says about starter homes etc.? WTF does that have to do with what we are talking about?

pnet is about individual consumers.. not investors. but frankly there is some things an investor might teach a consumer when buying a home. long term matix like price trends and affordabilty does make a difference.

as far as CAR/NAR ... bad data does lead to bad decisions.. that is why the FED has dropped using NAR data and switched to S&P case shiller index.

40   mike2   2013 Mar 10, 7:55am  

You are right on that.I know the market extremely well and I own other properties that I have recently sold withn a few blocks. The same floor plan across the street just sold for $133k and was not as updated. That was 2 months ago and mkt has increased 5% since then. I am not worried either way... I keep collecting the rent since I do not owe anything on the house. For the next 18 months I will continue to rent it. No one knows where the mkt will be in 2 years buty my guess is more of the same or at least a leveling off. We bottomed 18 months ago.

Comments 1 - 40 of 94       Last »     Search these comments

Please register to comment:

api   best comments   contact   latest images   memes   one year ago   random   suggestions