patrick.net

Thanks for the data Greg. I think the recent bull run lost its legs in September as well.

Probably downward from here until the FED and Obama find a new crutch. I'm guessing another tax credit may be in the works.

Are those charts seasonally adjusted? If not it could be showing normal spring and summer price increases and fall and winter declines.

yup1 says

Are those charts seasonally adjusted? If not it could be showing normal spring and summer price increases and fall and winter declines.

Nope. Raw numbers. Certainly there is some seasonality at play, but not enough to matter. And that wouldn't account for the divergence between the top and lower tiers lately.

Here is a spreadsheet with the raw data:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AkHCZUgzOOdldENVYi13bHdmb1JXUEs5NFJkWEk3OHc&output=html

Call it Crazy says

Bidding wars from low inventory maybe???

Inventory has been ridiculously low. Right now there are only 42 active single family homes in Danville. Historically there would be 120-150 this time of the year.

gregpfielding says

Historically there would be 120-150 this time of the year.

Is that last years number or an actual historical average?

yup1 says

Is that last years number or an actual historical average?

It's tough to go back and pull snapshots of what was actively for sale in the past. I can tell you that I've been in the business for a decade and Danville usually has 200-250 or so listings in the Spring and Summer and about half of that in the lows of Winter.

Interesting.

Who really knows what is healthy when the market has been totally distorted for at least the last 10 years.

Interest rates were higher last year. Realtors and brokers are trying to get people to lock into a monthly payment instead of looking at the total price. I think this is also running up prices. I see homes in Danville that would be in the 400 to 500K range normally, but are priced in the 600 to 700K range. It seems that sellers are still all over the map in their pricing, not even looking at comparables. I see one awesome 700K home and total rehab priced the same.

Gap between poor and rich is growing. The way I see it is,housing in Danville is less affordable to poor then the rich!

gregpfielding says

I still haven’t come to grips with what exactly happened to trigger such a change… what factors existed in February of 2012 that didn’t in September of 2011?

Been wondering the same for a while myself. This is much more pronounded in the mid to lower tier of real estate in the Bay Area than what you are showing in Danville.

gregpfielding says

Even though the most expensive Tier is continuing to see prices run up, the Mid and Bottom Tiers have seen declines in the second half of the year.

Interesting. Why would this be? It makes me wonder what the volume is in each of this three tiers... Also, just curious Greg, what's your source for this data?

Danville is overpriced, but still a better value than san mateo and various other locations in peninsula. Peninsula is the most overpriced region in bay area not including S.F.

dublin hillz says

Danville is overpriced, but still a better value than san mateo and various other locations in peninsula. Peninsula is the most overpriced region in bay area not including S.F.

Right, SF, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Marin and some parts of Alameda counties are beyond hope. That leaves Contra Costa County unless you are willing to venture north (borderline out of the Bay Area)