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bmwman91
2012 Oct 3, 7:24am
I agree. However, holding your breath for that isn't a hot plan as far as I can tell. The various synthetic measures that are pushing housing prices up now are also integral to keeping our entire false economy afloat. I think that when housing next implodes, it will be along with the rest of the economy and debt-fueled way of life. At that point, "buying a house" will not even be on the priorities list. As far as I can tell, there is no "winning" at the game now. You may as well get in & enjoy what you can with ponzi money, because we are headed straight for a shit storm.
Debt is NOT wealth, but the lifestyle that Americans enjoy, and our seeming material wealth is based on nothing BUT debt. We have dug our own grave.
"When people act scared, I act greedy.
When people get greedy, I get scared."
- Warren Buffett
Time to get scared, because it sounds like the HELOC greed crowd is back.
freak80
2012 Oct 4, 3:42am
if only our belated grandparents where still around to give us sound financial advice
I think they'd take us out to the woodshed for a whoopin.'
Time to get scared, because it sounds like the HELOC greed crowd is back.
I agree ... but I don't think we're anywhere close to a 'top' in this market yet. In fact many here argue that there is more downside to come, I just don't see that in SF at the moment. In the last boom, 2006 or early 2007 would have been close enough to the top ... right now feels more like 2004 to me.
I was installing my rebuilt engine over the weekend and had the radio on. A month or so ago I was hearing lots of ads for refinancing products, from CASH CALL ("what'chu talkin bout Willis?!") even! Well, this weekend I got to hear an ad for house flipping seminars play repeatedly during peak listening hours. "If you are an investor and want to make a LOT of money for minimal effort, then you need to come and learn to flip houses!"
On my weekly flight back from Seattle, I once again overheard other passengers talking about RE. "It's going up, this is a great time to invest." That sort of thing.
Yup, I'd say that housing is BACK, baby! So, how long do people think this cycle will go on for? I assume that it'll be a good 5-year run-up or so, but given how heavily manipulate RE is, I suppose that there is no way to know. The banks won, I assume that there will be various FHA loan products that get easier and easier for people to acquire as prices go up since, "prices are going up and poor people can't afford houses, give them access to huge loans or DISCRIMINATION!!!!"
I still can't believe how fast we hit the inflection point. But, it is what it is. I also wonder how fragile the whole thing is and what it would take to implode things just as rapidly as they were turned upward this year? It would be nothing more than speculation to make a claim there, but we can all plainly see that the RE market is almost completely controlled by non-retail forces and that seems like a sure recipe for volatility in the near-to-mid term. It all looks like it will end up being a wild ride. If another asset class or investment vehicle pops out that manages superior returns to RE, I think that many investors will dump their holdings to chase yields elsewhere, and as of now that looks to me like the only way we will see falling house prices again. Since the stock market will remain a casino into the foreseeable future, and I doubt that we will see higher interest rates ever thanks to our insane national debt, I guess I don't see investors leaving RE any time soon.
#housing