patrick.net

EastCoastBubbleBoy says

t used to be we had one dude, bearmarket, who was disconnected from reality. Now we have a half dozen or more. Jus as prices could not continue to rise above inflation ad infinitum, in most of our major urban areas (Bay area, so. Cal, NYC, Boston, Chicago, etc.) prices will not plummet from here on out.

Let me guess...you've take or are in the process of taking out a mortgage.

ECBB - I also miss the spirited discourse. The ability to have a conversation without being attacked on some level, such as
JodyChunder says

Let me guess...you've take or are in the process of taking out a mortgage.

It used to be alot more fun, and multidimensional. Now it's political and people are much more mean. I do miss the old days...

Yes, that was truly vicious of me - well south of the belt line. My sincere apologies Eastcoast. I shudder to think that my attack may have contributed in any way to you not getting every last one of your dimes worth out of the Pat.net experience.

Back in 2003-2004 we used to pride ourselves on begin “ahead of the curve”.
In trying to keep that mantra – and I point out that I called bottom a while back. Yes that coincides with me stepping up my house buying activities –but that’s not the point.

The one truth is you can’t time the market – but in any cycle there’s a peak and a valley – I’m trying to avoid being caught in either the upswing or the downswing. Call it timing if you want – so be it.

Yes I might end up being wrong. If I am, y’all can laugh and call me names. Heck you can even exclude me from your reindeer games…. Not to call anyone out, but TechGromit bought in early – and stuck around to talk of both the pros and the cons of his experience. I’ll do my best to stick around no matter how this plays out for me personally – but the daily drivel is getting old.

And that was the point of my post – despite the fact that we could be having well reasoned, spirited discussions on the forces influencing a particular market area – we don’t. Strangely, when most of us were on the same page regarding the fundamental reasons for this sites being – housing is (or was) overvalued - there was better debate – when prices will come down, how fast – people using previous economic cycles to prove or refute particular views. Even a newbie like myself felt like I was amongst smart, rational people.

The tenor of this forum has changed. It seems that too many good discussions devolve into name calling and senseless drivel faster than you can say Realtor.

EastCoastBubbleBoy says

Back in 2003-2004 we used to pride ourselves on begin “ahead of the curve”.

I think it was just more obvious during the bubble where many 'smart' people just intuitively knew it would crash.

This side of the bubble is different. As you stated: "the powers that be are doing their best to putt an artificial floor on prices creating conditions that generate low mortgage rates – so far they have succeed in this – far better than I would have expected." Are there plans available anywhere in the media to analyze? No. So, we are left with only conjecture to discuss.
The game can change at any minute, tomorrow, next month, or a few years from now.

EastCoastBubbleBoy says

The tenor of this forum has changed. It seems that too many good discussions devolve into name calling and senseless drivel faster than you can say Realtor.

I don't have a wife in this fight, I just think CASH is still very much king. Besides, I don't know where you are home shopping. If you were in Atlanta I might say, go for it. If you were in certain parts of Florida and Arizona, I would say you're probably okay; Dallas, yes; anywhere in Idaho, definitely; Victorville, CA ABSOLUTELY. However, one or two off the metros you pointed to in your OP are not at anything like a natural bottom. My feeling is, if you buy in one of those markets now, you will be suffering panic attacks in another seven or eight years.

Other than that, I just find it ludicrous whenever anyone hops on Patrick to make a show of saying Sayonara Forever, though not without the obligatory long-look-down-their-nose at how badly the site has crept from their own almighty notions of how it should be run. I say to this bunch -- don't let the door hit ya where the good lord split ya.

JodyChunder says

My feeling is, if you buy in one of those markets now, you will be suffering panic attacks in another seven or eight years.

LOL, that made me laugh, thanks. Couldn't agree more, time frame might be right on too.

Yep, if I wanted to buy another in Dallas, sure, been 6 years, the market value is the same, just checked recently. Pretty much all of Florida would work too if I wanted to move there.

JodyChunder says

I shudder to think that my attack may have contributed in any way to you not getting every last one of your dimes worth out of the Pat.net experience.

This forum used to be about discussion & debate. Now it's a race to see who can say something snide first. You won.

Congrats.

Its simple why things have changed: The market has changed. I started visiting bubble sites back when there were probably 100's of them. There were a TON for the Bay Area alone. Back then it was easy to see there was a bubble and the irrationality was plainly apparent. Thus it didn't take a mad genius to figure out that things definitely weren't right and that a correction was on its merry way. In the meantime bubble sites gave people a place to vent and converse with others who were equally frustrated. Its was quite a therapeutic thing.

Now things are a bit different. Depending on what you read there are some signs of the market improving. I don't think the term "bubble" is accurate to describe the market. That doesn't mean we're about to return to the crazy bubble days of the early 2000's. But Its not like were likely about to fall off a cliff either.

As far as guesstimating when is the "right" time to buy, well that's going to depend on innumerable personal factors such as the amount of savings, income, cushion, retirement situation, local housing market condition, and so on. But perhaps more importantly is how YOU feel about it.

We waited for well over 10+ years, biding our time, saving, preparing, and then bought in the Bay Area and we are happy with our decision. Sure- it was a lot of hard work. For others the Bay Area isn't ideal. Everyone has their own ideas and so its pointless to say people should buy here or there and frankly when to buy.

In the end its all up to you.

EastCoastBubbleBoy says

The tenor of this forum has changed. It seems that too many good discussions devolve into name calling and senseless drivel faster than you can say Realtor.

So true.

joshuatrio says

So true.

You - you - you - REALTOR!

(How's that for senseless drivel & name calling, in one word?)

elliemae says

This forum used to be about discussion & debate. Now it's a race to see who can say something snide first. You won.

Congrats.

At least you don't take yourself too seriously.

Above all, I find the sudden key change (and it is quite sudden) whenever someone has signed, or is in the process of signing on the dotted line to be a very interesting behavioral phenomenon. These folks become instantly credulous, to the point where, for certain buyers, it seems they see their name on a mortgage as an official act of apostasy. It's a trend I'm seeing with increasing frequency, - not just on this web forum - and I find it interesting is all.

elliemae says

joshuatrio says

So true.

You - you - you - REALTOR!

(How's that for senseless drivel & name calling, in one word?)

Eschew Obfuscation

Lol - except that I'm a renter.

joshuatrio says

Lol - except that I'm a renter.

Missed it by THAT much!

JodyChunder says

Above all, I find the sudden key change (and it is quite sudden) whenever someone has signed, or is in the process of signing on the dotted line to be a very interesting behavioral phenomenon. These folks become instantly credulous, to the point where, for certain buyers, it seems they see their name on a mortgage as an official act of apostasy. It's a trend I'm seeing with increasing frequency, - not just on this web forum - and I find it interesting is all.

So the assumption is that nobody ever wants to buy a house thus when they do buy they don't "really" want to own it? But moving on, seems to me that I've seen a number of "other" people on this forum who also seem very, very assured of themselves and like to project how the choices they've made are ingenious.

In truth, I found this place because it was "self-fulfilling" I felt that prices were overvalued, and this site reinforced that perception. Now that I am (almost) on the other side of the fence, of course I am trying to "defend" my decision.

ECBB - you have the right to make decisions and to post your opinion. The only problem is that you are going to be attacked here because people feel that they are superior to you.

the great Homer Simpson once said that sometimes you have to make someone else feel bad to make yourself feel really good.

Unfortunately, that seems to describe many of the posters on this forum.

ECBB, my honest opinion about my area of central cal is we are bouncing along the bottom. RE is not going up or down, it's just bobbing along.

Money is free. And still, no market.

I think the State budget will cause more trouble soon. The EBT program is finally getting a check-up. Section 8 should be broke soon. If the Fed does not pay for the jail rooms held by illegals we will be dumping large amounts of inmates in TJ soon too.

On the global scale, things seem pretty shakey. It is a scary time.

Bap33 says

things seem pretty shakey

Nationally and Globally, yet all we see and read are housing cheerleaders proclaiming nirvana.

Bap33 says

On the global scale, things seem pretty shakey. It is a scary time.

Scary times are when smart people make money. From a global perspective the advent of tremendous growth in emerging markets is going to be very lucrative.

The US housing market is going to stay flat in most markets. In the so-called fortress areas the prices will go up.

The doom and gloomers that over-populate this site remind me of the guys who built bomb-shelters in there backyards during the early days of the cold war. While their fears were not without merit, they wasted so much of their lives worrying about shit they couldn't control.

http://www.youtube.com/embed/lW4s7TETtJA

edvard2 says

So the assumption is that nobody ever wants to buy a house thus when they do buy they don't "really" want to own it? But moving on, seems to me that I've seen a number of "other" people on this forum who also seem very, very assured of themselves and like to project how the choices they've made are ingenious.

There is definitely A LOT of projection...just in this thread alone.

Anyway, I don't have an agenda. Just for starters, I own 14 properties in 2 different states. Consumer psychology has just always been a hobby-horse of mine. As such, I find the sudden turn-on-a-dime from caterwauling housing critic to housing advocate in as little as two or three posts, (or before the ink has dried on the mortgage app) to be very interesting food for thought. File under choice-supportive bias.

(I'm guilty, too -- but usually with piddly shit.)

EastCoastBubbleBoy says

Now that I am (almost) on the other side of the fence, of course I am trying to "defend" my decision.

Thanks -- that's exactly the bias I meant to illustrate with my first comment...the idea that anyone could read malice into such a tame and uncontentious comment is more a reflection of their own dark energies than anything else.

JodyChunder says

Anyway, I don't have an agenda. Just for starters, I own 14 properties in 2 different states.

Not sure what that really has to do with anything. Big deal. I can also poke out my chest and rattle off my physical possessions and the level of success I've obtained. But that's besides the point and unrelated to the subtopic at hand and not sure what that would really prove anyway.

EastCoastBubbleBoy says

In truth, I found this place because it was "self-fulfilling" I felt that prices were overvalued, and this site reinforced that perception. Now that I am (almost) on the other side of the fence, of course I am trying to "defend" my decision.

Looks like your house hunting saga is about to end. That's good. Keep us informed. Everybody has different opinions depends on the situataion where he/she is in at. Renters and owners, savers and spenders, they all have different perspectives. They all are free to express what they think. So you are. Do tell us what you feel as a home owner once you become one. It will be interesting to hear differences before and after. Will you tell me your zipcode by then?

Your comment reminds me of this good old phrase. "Every market is local". This waiting game hasn't got me anything yet. My local market (Fairfax county and Arlington county in VA) never really suffered from the recession. Now the price is almost fully recovered back to the peak level. I can't believe this shit... what do I do? After all, this is damn capital of the US, and I had to admit that people here are way richer than I originally thought. My search is on hold for now.

edvard2 says

JodyChunder says

Anyway, I don't have an agenda. Just for starters, I own 14 properties in 2 different states.

Not sure what that really has to do with anything. Big deal. I can also poke out my chest and rattle off my physical possessions and the level of success I've obtained. But that's besides the point and unrelated to the subtopic at hand and not sure what that would really prove anyway.

lol .. this is an on-line universe ... while on here I too can hold multiple properties, and have 4 current Playmates on my arm at all times, and drive a tank to and from work, where I give manicures to elves and unicorns, AND be tall - all at the same time. Perspective shared.

@EastCoastBubbleBoy

I appreciate your contributions here, too. I don't spend as much time on Patrick.net as I did last year, but there are still some good posts.

I guess my point is that the good posts (on either side of the argument) are getting fewer and furhter between.

Bap33 says

lol .. this is an on-line universe ... while on here I too can hold multiple properties, and have 4 current Playmates on my arm at all times, and drive a tank to and from work, where I give manicures to elves and unicorns, AND be tall - all at the same time. Perspective shared.

I slide on a rainbow into my maserati...

wow, that's erotic!... or did I invision it all wrong? Need details, what color Maserati?

Bap33 says

Need details, what color Maserati?

All of the colors of the rainbow... and it was filled with popcorn.

popped popcorn or unpopped popcorn?

case in point.. I post data in a different thread, and get called a liar no less than 10 minutes later.

Dispute my source, fine. Post your own data as part of a counter argument fine. I welcome the contrarian position - it helps me round out my thinking - but data - even anecdotal, helps give credence to an argument.

I agree with rooemoore Scary times are when smart people make money. I’m not a genius, but I’m not an idiot either.

Does that mean is should run out and by the first think I see… of course not. But you can’t win if your not in the game, and I’ve been very deliberate and selective. I’m not crowing that I’m right and the rest of you are wrong. I’m trying to bring data to back my belief that the worst is over, and looking for the balance that used to be here.

EastCoastBubbleBoy says

I’m trying to bring data to back my belief that the worst is over, and looking for the balance that used to be here.

IMHO people who belittle others have other things going on. If they were to simply state their opinion, that's one thing. But to follow up an accusation with a presentation of the stuff they own as if that makes them an expert... well, that certainly doesn't make them more endearing.

Seems like there's not alot of balance here. But take the comments in stride and make your own decision. There are still some people here who support you.

edvard2 says

Not sure what that really has to do with anything. Big deal. I can also poke out my chest and rattle off my physical possessions and the level of success I've obtained.

Errr...you don't usually need much of an invitation to pat yourself on the back there, eddie. Lettuce pray you don't get laid-off in the next downturn like my youngest did and lose most of it. But anyway, no; I pointed out the number of properties I own to illustrate how I have NO agenda against owning property, therefore, NO reason to "attack" anyone who does. If I did, I wouldn't own 14 of them...get it?

Bap33 says

lol .. this is an on-line universe ... while on here I too can hold multiple properties, and have 4 current Playmates

I guess that lobster I had for breakfast this morning is all part of "the on-line universe" too...whatever the hell that is...Does this also mean that the bitter self-haters on here are actually Up With People-types, full of love and light?

If I was going to fabricate a fabulous fictional lifestyle, I think, just for starters, I could do a little better than staging it in Victoriville. Hows this for counterbalance: I am old, I've got a boil on my ass, hip problems, scars, a fuckup son and a three ex wives who ding me every month for probably more than your annual net take home for the last five years.

(...but I'm still rich!)

JodyChunder says

Hows this for counterbalance: I am old, I've got a boil on my ass, hip problems, scars, a fuckup son and a three ex wives who ding me every month for probably more than your annual net take home for the last five years.
(...but I'm still rich!)

And yet you are such an engaging, self-deprecating individual with interesting posts with a refreshing point of view that we all look forward to reading.

JodyChunder says

At least you don't take yourself too seriously.

You might try some of the same.

elliemae says

And yet you are such an engaging, self-deprecating individual with interesting posts with a refreshing point of view that we all look forward to reading.

Thanky.

David9 says

I think it was just more obvious during the bubble where many 'smart' people just intuitively knew it would crash.

This side of the bubble is different. As you stated: "the powers that be are doing their best to putt an artificial floor on prices creating conditions that generate low mortgage rates – so far they have succeed in this – far better than I would have expected." Are there plans available anywhere in the media to analyze? No. So, we are left with only conjecture to discuss.

The game can change at any minute, tomorrow, next month, or a few years from now.

I'll throw out some conjecture. More than anything else low interest rates are putting a floor on prices. Many ask only "how much will it cost me a month?".

Lets look at two cases
$200,000 @ 6.5% with 5% down: $1,2000 / month
$277,141 @ 6.5% with 3.5% down: $1200 / month

So based on interest rates you can get spend almost 40% more with a similar amount down (in terms of dollars, not percentage) and have the same monthly payment.

Also, look at the Case Shiller index historically.

Both in 1898 and 1950 the index bottomed out, post bubble, at 100. With the exception of the great depression, it rarely dipped below 90. Fast forward to the most recent bubbles prior to this one. The index has more ore less been at 110 (rather than 100) from 1960 onward, with the 80's boom and 90's boom clearly shown. Why did after both bubbles it revert to 110 and not 100? My guess is the rise of two income households. Even if it is simply one full time + one part time worker, the rise of women as it pertains to the workplace led to on the average higher household incomes -which explains why recent trend is to revert to 110, not 100. Also interesting to note that in both prior bubbles, we did not "overshoot' much on the downside. That is to say there was no precipitous drop of the index due to an "overcorrection" on the downside.

Where am I going with this? Without government intervention (direct or indirect) I expected that the downward momentum seen immediately after the bust would have continued until we reached an index value of about 110. It stopped at about 140 and has now actually stated to rise. is it a new bubble forming - perhaps - but if low rates lead to almost 40% more purchasing power, than an index level of 140 is not an unrealistic floor for prices given current conditions. In truth I expect it to bounce along at or near the 140 mark (say 130 to 150) for the next few years.

Thus, if you have bought recently or may buy soon, you probably have caught the bottom.

Now when rates rise it will be interesting to see what happens. counterintuitive, but data suggest there will be a small uptick, as those on the sidelines rush in. Beyond that - my crystal l ball gets murky. But my guess (based on articles I have read) is that the so called smart money is already in the game. Just look at the number of rental units being snatched up by larger scale investors.

Could this be a dead cat bounce? Perhaps. Time (and data) will tell. In five years people such as myself are either going to look like a genius or an idiot - but for better or worse I intend to put my money where my mouth is. (that is, unless of course the Mayans were right)