patrick.net

At these dow levels, nothing!

On Capital Account yesterday - http://www.youtube.com/user/capitalaccount?feature=results_main - they discussed the confidence crisis.

People just don' trust the Wall Street anymore.
Then you have people like Jon Corzines out there who just pocket customer's money, no explanations, no answers, no charges, nothing.

I don't understand how the S&P can be at 1400 today except that all the money out there has no other place to go. If interest rates rise so that people can just break even after taxes and inflation, I think the S&P 500 will drop by 30% or more.

All it would take is 4.5% money market rates and 6% CDs of 12 months maturity. But right now that seems impossible.

I bought TSLA recently. It's seemingly volatile but I made some money.

What about DIS? They report today after the close I think.

I'm waiting for the DJIA to get closer to 12500 before I buy back my trading shares.

I invested in my local coop. They needed money to move to a new location and they're paying me six percent. My money's safe and I'm happy to loan it to a good neighborhood resource.

Chipotle Mexican Grill after the crash.

CMG is like McDonald's, except I don't feel like sh*t after eating it. Unfortunately there's no CMG in the Corning-Elmira area just yet. We do have a Panera Bread though.

Restaurants are a very risky investment usually, they often become popular like a fad and go away quickly. It's easy to miss the selling point.

FortWayne says

Restaurants are a very risky investment usually, they often become popular like a fad and go away quickly. It's easy to miss the selling point.

Fair point, but Chipotle has "caught on." It's a popular lunch destination for white-collar folks: healthy food, fast, at a reasonable price. It's much better quality food than Taco Bell (which was no fad). Actually if I were Taco Bell I'd be worried about losing market share to Chipotle.

Only time will tell who is right.

freak80 says

Chipotle Mexican Grill after the crash.

CMG is like McDonald's, except I don't feel like sh*t after eating it. Unfortunately there's no CMG in the Corning-Elmira area just yet. We do have a Panera Bread though.

I prefer Baja Fresh.

I had a big chunk of change in DRR-which is a short euro fund. Working out nicely for me.

Am thinking of getting out and parking funds for a while. I think the market still looks like it could go lower, so maybe load up on some Ford when it gets down a bit more? Just looking for now. Nothing else seems that attractive in these prices.

I continue to do as I've always done: stick money into a 401k, a few mutual funds that are widely diversified, and so on. I don't try to "outsmart" the market.

Anyone like GE?

The issue is that there are a lot of solid companies out there, but all leading economic indicators look very bad if you look at genuine indicators of output, like train deliveries, port activity, factory orders, etc.

More people went on disability than got jobs this past month.

http://news.investors.com/article/617233/201207061636/disability-climbs-faster-than-jobs-under-obama.htm

There's no good way to fix the shitstorm Europe is in.

Current stock prices are unsustainable. I think caution is the order of the day.

zzyzzx says

I prefer Baja Fresh.

Never heard of it.

edvard2 says

I don't try to "outsmart" the market.

I wise strategy I learned the "hard way."

Chipotle doesn't make an eatable, in the hand burrito. It makes a ball shaped burrito. When you eat it it's tasty but your like eating from a trough. This is a meal only to be eaten in a dark room by yourself. Tastes good tho.

New renter says

Anyone like GE?

I do. I bought DIS yesterday, and then it was down ~ 2% after the bell. That changed today so now I'm up. I like them both okay, since with dividends and the way time progresses I'll turn around one day and find extra shares. Better than parking my dough in my checking.

I bought GE a while back and it hasn't done much really, but it feels like it's getting close. I thought the same with X and I've regretted not loading up on it.

New renter says

Anyone like GE?

I liked it better a few months ago when the stock price was cheaper.

freak80 says

zzyzzx says

I prefer Baja Fresh.

Never heard of it.

http://www.bajafresh.com/

I suspect that they might not be in upstate NY.

zzyzzx says

suspect that they might not be in upstate NY.

There isn't much of anything in upstate NY. Other than abandoned factories. The scenery sure is nice though.

zzyzzx says

freak80 says

zzyzzx says

I prefer Baja Fresh.

Never heard of it.

http://www.bajafresh.com/

I suspect that they might not be in upstate NY.

If the homeowner isn't insulted by your offer...you didn't bid low enough!!!

A lot of salt in those, though.

http://www.bajafresh.com/mexican-food-nutrition

New renter says

Anyone like GE?

Their business model doesn't work. Remove the various government subsidies keeping them affloat, and GE will collapse.

AlexS says

Their business model doesn't work. Remove the various government subsidies keeping them affloat, and GE will collapse

The world's largest conglomerate? I don't think so.

Actually I sold SDRL & CIM yesterday to raise some cash. Haven't bought anything lately. I'm hoping to buy these two stocks back at 10% lower. SDRL pays about 8% in dividend. CIM pays about 15%.

AlexS says

Their business model doesn't work. Remove the various government subsidies keeping them affloat, and GE will collapse.

I liked GE much better when it was closer to $18/share. I don't like buying stocks near their 52 week high.

wells fargo is at its 52 week high

in fact, WFC is up 50% from a year ago today.

that sounds reasonable, what with all the marked improvement in their business over the past twelve months

errc says

in fact, WFC is up 50% from a year ago today.
that sounds reasonable, what with all the marked improvement in their business over the past twelve months

It's very reasonable since they are "too big to fail" and you and I will be forced to bail them out the next time they f*ck up.

freak80 says

CMG is like McDonald's, except I don't feel like sh*t after eating it.

Chipotle IS owned by McDonalds.
Meet ,,,,,,,, RRRRaul McRRRRamirez

zzyzzx says

At these dow levels, nothing!

Gubmint is manipulating markets in hopes someone will invent another widget that will generate more money than the computer did. If not, markets will snap back like one big damn rubber band. Should we invest in pain killers ? I am triple bearish, The problem with that is cash will be worthless if I'm right.

FortWayne says

Anything that looks good?

SHORT GUBMINT !

FortWayne... Are you long on any sector ?

bought some GTU.

In times like these, look out for things that may have topped unless they are a good dividend company.

Found on
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/
PIIGS,France,England,etc
Nearly everywhere, I find a single, overarching emotion is paramount:

The fear that bungling governments are destroying — or about to destroy — what little is left of our peace and prosperity.

In Western Europe, as the entire continent sinks into a double-dip recession, the fear has spread from the PIIGS countries to France, England and even Germany.

In Japan, similar fears — long ridiculed by officials and ignored by the press — are once again bubbling to the surface.

And in the U.S., the fear of a fiscal cliff — less than five months away — has now pervaded corporate boardrooms, putting new investments on hold and prompting sharp cutbacks in hiring.

CL says

The world's largest conglomerate? I don't think so.

Last time I heard this was about GM, Fannie, Freddie...

Also, if it wasn't just for one TARP, but several, the list of bankrupted and liquidated names would also include, but not limited to:
AIG (biggest insurer)
Bank of America
Citibank
JP Morgan Chase
Goldman Sachs
...

just to name a few.

But CL, you go ahead and invest into enterprise that without subsidies would fail the next minute.

TMAC54 says

I am triple bearish, The problem with that is cash will be worthless if I'm right.

Say you're right in your assessment. What asset class would do well in this environment? The answer is hard assets, which are gold & real estate. Gold doesn't produce income while real estate does. Under your scenario, we would be paying back our debt with funny money. Having a small asset in gold is a good hedge & could be golden under this scenario. However, income-producing real estate would still come out as a big winner regardless of how you slice it.

AlexS says

But CL, you go ahead and invest into enterprise that without subsidies would fail the next minute.

I believe, but tell me if I'm wrong, that GE's business is still huge...making turbines, jet engines, telephones, appliances, security systems, healthcare, and so on.

Their vulnerability came from GE Capital. Then again, most of the big manufacturers got involved in finance. That doesn't mean that their industry is on life-support (and even if it were, GE makes that too!).

AS GE goes, goes the nation is still largely true.

CL says

AlexS says

But CL, you go ahead and invest into enterprise that without subsidies would fail the next minute.

I believe, but tell me if I'm wrong, that GE's business is still huge...making turbines, jet engines, telephones, appliances, security systems, healthcare, and so on.

Their vulnerability came from GE Capital. Then again, most of the big manufacturers got involved in finance. That doesn't mean that their industry is on life-support (and even if it were, GE makes that too!).

AS GE goes, goes the nation is still largely true.

Large corporate entities usually can't just sit on cash and have an investment unit in order to maximize return to their shareholders. So all that cash "on the sidelines" will likely flow into stock markets if it's not there already.

FortWayne says

Large corporate entities usually can't just sit on cash and have an investment unit in order to maximize return to their shareholders. So all that cash "on the sidelines" will likely flow into stock markets if it's not there already.

Hey FW,

What do you mean?

CL says

Hey FW,

What do you mean?

Large corporations don't typically allow cash to sit in the bank with no returns. So they invest a large portion of their revenue into the stock markets. Investment in the stock market generates return to shareholders (a lot more than cash in the bank). Plus they can avoid paying some taxes this way.

A quick example is that MSFT is a major shareholder of AAPL. There are millions of other examples.

Per the 10-K, MSFT has about 82B in cash and investment, about 8B is in common and preferred shares.

Most goes to fixed return instructment in government bonds and corporate bonds.

Having the benefit of reading 1000's of the 10-K, most public company stash their cash in fixed income (mostly a basket of short/medium/long government/corporate bonds), not equity. If they do stash it in equity, it is either strategic or represents a minor portion of the treasury.