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2   Oil Can   2012 Jul 23, 1:25am  

Only ultra low saved this season from a total decline. It decline in real terms.

3   dunnross   2012 Jul 23, 2:15am  

robertoaribas says

MANY buyers in Phoenix aren't buying, not because they don't want to, but rather because they can't find anything to buy.

If they can't find anything to buy, that means that price is still too high. That's exactly what a declining market looks like. Claiming that buyers may want or not want to buy houses is stupid, because there is always a demand for housing, but at the right price.

4   Goran_K   2012 Jul 23, 2:37am  

Prices could be up 200% but if sales are actually languishing lower than 2011 levels (which were already anemic), it's very hard to call this a recovering market.

I think "dysfunctional" fits.

5   bubblesitter   2012 Jul 23, 2:50am  

robertoaribas says

I personally know several frustrated regular home buyers, who have been actively trying to buy, but can't get a contract accepted.

or is it that they can't find a bank to loan em money to buy an overpriced wooden box?

6   Goran_K   2012 Jul 23, 2:57am  

bubblesitter says

or is that they can't find a bank to loan em money to buy an overpriced wooden box?

I explained this catch 22 in another thread.

Dysfunction.

7   Goran_K   2012 Jul 23, 3:46am  

I agree it's hard to claim that the current market we have right now (low sales, low inventory) doesn't exist. The stats are agnostic, they are what they are.

Why the current market exist, though, I feel is a valid debate/discussion.

8   bubblesitter   2012 Jul 23, 3:51am  

I have 2 properties that popped up on redfin about 90 days ago - both around 700K and were last sold in 2009 and 2010 respectively and both are struggling to get the price that was last paid for. I wouldn't care for golden properties of Phoenix,but there is downward pressure on prices here in north OC.

9   Randy H   2012 Jul 23, 7:28am  

Confirming that in the >$1.5mm range in Silicon Valley it's exceptionally difficult for "normal" buyers right now. We just bought back into the Valley and were surprised to find it much tougher than the "prime" Marin area we're leaving. Homes in the valley are going for all-cash, quick close deals and if you want to get in as an individual buyer you either have to be willing to competitively bid (which we refuse to do) or creatively structure yourself into a financing position where you can appear all-cash to the seller. For us, this meant levering other assets in order to bridge so we could offer all-cash on the purchase. Luckily, that still buys a discount purchase price and a longer, more reasonable close. But it doesn't discard the as-is or other annoying factors.

I can also tell you that buying REO or short sales in either Marin, Santa Clara or San Mateo counties is illusion unless you're really really really willing to buy crap in a crap neighborhood with bad schools and busy streets. Otherwise, you're not going to get a chance at that inventory because it all goes to insiders who are paying all-cash and are doing so through investment-group LLCs.

And just to inoculate the inevitable replies about me being a Realtwhore or shill: I created the Bubblizer model, contributed hundreds of bubble articles here and on other forms over the years, and have utilized a strategy which has produced consistent personal gains for the past 15 years, including through the bubble (which saw us sell in 2005 to rent until 2009 as a way to buy into Marin for ~30% less than the previous owner's 2002 purchase price). That said, bring it on so I can fill out my ignore list.

10   Its always someone elses fault   2012 Jul 23, 8:08am  

This photo encapsulates our culture of victimization perfectly.

No one put a gun to the home buyer's head and said they had to buy a home. But of course, in the myopic world inhabited by liberal victims, personal responsibility is a job for a government agency. Of course, I never heard these same people complaining when they smugly talked about how their home valuations were going up and they just got a new HELOC to afford them the ability to purchase a new (insert favorite depreciating asset)...but of course, it's this same ideology that makes them think they are entitled to wealth and success - everyone is a winner!

11   David9   2012 Jul 23, 8:15am  

bubblesitter says

I have 2 properties that popped up on redfin about 90 days ago - both around 700K and were last sold in 2009 and 2010 respectively and both are struggling to get the price that was last paid for. I wouldn't care for golden properties of Phoenix,but there is downward pressure on prices here in north OC.


DO YOUR MATH

I have seen this situation often in the San Fernando Valley and the Los Angeles / Hollywood / Mid Whilshire areas in the below 325K range. The sucker buyer rally of 2009 and around there are now trying to sell or already foreclosed, have also seen people trying to sell at 2003 prices or thereabouts, and people who bought at the peak willing to accept over 100K loss, doesn't excite me.

Also, one property recently came up for 199K that I liked, had most of the features I wanted, top floor, a view of some kind, 2 parking spaces, 2 bedrooms, and 2 bathrooms. But when I 'Did My Math', (And yes, checked Patricks' calculator which put the value at 217K) the payment of $907 + $380 HOA + $207 Property Tax = $1,494 a month outlay and the expected rent is $1,600 or a bit more, I'm like, big whoopdie Doo.

12   David9   2012 Jul 23, 8:47am  

robertoaribas says

20% down

I could but choose not too. 190K at 4% in a microsoft excel calculator.

13   HEY YOU   2012 Jul 23, 9:14am  

I think I'll go in debt like so many individuals & investors because there isn't any chance of global recession or depression.

14   Randy H   2012 Jul 23, 1:29pm  

robertoaribas says

Randy:
and since I am now considered the "buy now realtwhore" on here, perhaps you remember me from the 2005/2006 zillow days, when I posted all the bad news about housing, and took on all the Realtors with brainless buy now advice. The thing is, the market in Phoenix collapsed so hard, even further than I ever predicted, that the price/rent ratio literally screamed BUY BUY BUY... which I have done. I am closing on my 12th home tomorrow, most without mortgages, 3 with mortgages 50% of current rent...

I remember you well Rob. You and I were often the only rational people on Zillow in the early days too. People seem to think that some perfect buying opportunity will emerge at which point all the faithful will be awarded their gift from the gods themselves.

Well, it doesn't work that way boys and girls.

15   mell   2012 Jul 23, 2:35pm  

If you already own a lot of properties and have good cash flow and you can just sell a couple if you get into a crunch, then you might be able to close some deals, either all-cash or at least with a decent down payment. The problem is that it is still a shitty time to buy for first timers who cannot afford to miss a mortgage payment or depreciation, because their wages do not support the debt burden and if they lose their job they will lose their house. At some point the couple percent will be shuffling the properties around themselves but will face dwindling rental income as the eroding middle-class becomes too poor to pay the demanded rental prices. Doesn't mean that there isn't a steal here and there if you have the cash, but compared to wages home prices are still overpriced.

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