patrick.net

This is in the Miscellaneous forum. Should this be in the Real Estate forum?

oh noes! We are running out of houses and they are not making any more! Buy now and be priced out foreverz!

Greg-I note how you say you are a "longtime real estate agent who has pretty much seen it all..." on your link, but you have only been a licensed agent for a little over eight years-barely enough to get your feet wet. You have not been in the business long enough to experience other periods of market distortions that have previously existed - i.e., interest rates that would be considered remotely high.
I would argue that demand IS very high right now and does rival 2004 - why wouldn't it be? We have a combination of soaring rents (yet the govt says there is no inflation) and interest rates so unbelievably low as to be unthinkable back in the 80s and even 90s. The question is how low can they go? 3%, 2%, 1% - then what?

Thanks for sharing Greg.

Anyone who has attempted to pick up real estate in 2012 would most likely have felt the inventory deficiency.

I can't speak for the high priced areas like Danville or Alamo, but the lower priced areas ($350K and below) within Contra Costa County have exhibited a price surge over the past few months. Time will tell whether this is a short term blip or a something longer term.

2004, just 8 short years ago, was almost the peak of an era of another form of market distortion - namely financing. All those crazy mortgages that were peddled then but you almost never hear about now - piggy back (1st & 2nd combo), interest only, no doc, subprime, alt-A, etc. Everybody then thought all of these crazy financing schemes would last forever and were the new way of financing a home. My point being is that NOTHING lasts forever - markets can, do and will change if you wait aroung long enough.