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1   futuresmc   2011 Dec 20, 8:19am  

I'm not so sure about a dollar and treasury collapse. If economics was a harder science, I'd say sure, it's doomed. However, much of our economy is based on confidence, no science. Fiat currencies, multiple accounting strategies designed to favor different parties over reality, and now digital, 'cashless' transactions have trained us not to look too deeply at underlying fundamentals. It could well be that the Euro goes, China's slowdown turns into political and social chaos, debt loads to China and their allies get canceled, and central banks paper over remaining debt with digital fixes through central banks and big institution collusion. In short, there would be too many big time loosers should the dollar go down, and since too much of the economy is based on 'belief' and 'confidence', true value might never be revealed.

Now, if real capitalism wins the day, yes, in a few years, maybe a decade or two, the dollar is toast, but when markets are based on digital data that can be manipulated, and crony capitalists have armies of techs working on it 24/7, fantasy capitalism might win the day.

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