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Statistics.


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2011 Dec 15, 5:43am   4,578 views  5 comments

by michaelsch   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/states-with-the-largest-changes-in-unemployment-aid-requests-and-some-reasons-at-a-glance/2011/12/15/gIQAqBf7vO_story.html

"Weekly applications for unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest level since May 2008, a sign that that job market may be strengthening."

Now look at details:

States with the biggest increases:

California: Up 27,780, due to layoffs in services

North Carolina: Up 15,427, due to layoffs in the textile, furniture and construction industries

New York: Up 14,048, due to layoffs in transportation, construction and services

Pennsylvania: Up 13,634, due to layoffs in construction, healthcare and services

Georgia: Up 11,144, due to layoffs in manufacturing, services, construction and healthcare

Texas: Up 10,481, due to layoffs in manufacturing, retail, and services

States with biggest drops:

Iowa: Down 1,785, no reason given

Wisconsin: Down 1,586, no reason given

OK, we got details for 8 states, the total for them is:

27780+15427+14048+13634+11144+10481-1785-1586=89,143

Would even the rest 42 states have the drop equal to Wisconsin's their total would be only 66,612, less than 89,143.

So, how have they got this drop in unemployment applications?
Could anyone explain this to me?

Comments 1 - 5 of 5        Search these comments

1   TPB   2011 Dec 15, 6:02am  

I find the most positive news always follows the worst possible days on the market...

Coincidence????

I THINK NOT!!!!

2   michaelsch   2011 Dec 15, 7:56am  

But still it looks to me like Russian Parlament election results.
What do I miss?
Why their editors don't see it's inconsistent?

3   TMAC54   2011 Dec 16, 1:48am  

What is the percentage of unemployed who have EXHAUSTED their benefits ?
How many people were hired for the Christmas season
***** oops sorry *****
HOLIDAY season ?

WHY DISSOLVE TRADITION ?

4   nope   2011 Dec 16, 5:19pm  

michaelsch says

So, how have they got this drop in unemployment applications?
Could anyone explain this to me?

This is the number of new unemployment applications for the week. If the number goes down, it means that fewer people are being laid off.

This is always going to be a positive number, and it's unlikely to ever be zero since even in the best economy companies go out of business.

This is not a net change in employment, because to calculate that you need to know how many hirings happen (and retirement and death, too). This is much harder to calculate.

5   AdamCarollaFan   2011 Dec 17, 3:20am  

there are only three kinds of lies:

1. lies
2. damned lies
3. statistics

m. twain

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