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Shorted apple (way back in May)

By iwog (221/221 = 100% civil)   2011 May 12, 4:42am   ↑ like   ↓ dislike   1 link   18,357 views   132 comments   watch (0)   share   quote  

I'm buying up July puts today. So far I've got 20 x $280, 20 x $285, and 20 x $300. I'm also selling May $350 calls

- ipad clones getting very good
- Google is entering the market
- iphone and droid sales currently about even
- product shortages for apple coming
- chart looks identical to Google in late 2007

I haven't been to Vegas for awhile so this is my gambling for the month.

« First     « Previous     Comments 93-132 of 132     Last »

93   terriDeaner   2011 Aug 24, 9:01am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

Yep. The title of this post needs to be changed to "Too late to short Apple (aapl)".

But don't worry, the next shorting opportunity will be here soon enough. Sometime shortly before Apple unveils their new line of "Performa" tablets...

94   terriDeaner   2011 Aug 24, 10:51am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

Haw!

95   Vicente   2011 Aug 24, 11:50am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

Meh, he's moving from CEO to Chairman. Nothingburger.

96   ¥   2011 Aug 24, 12:24pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

nah, SJ was moved to Chairman to put him out to pasture in 1985, too.

>This puppy is gonna drop, recover a bit, and then slide slowly downwards for quite a while.

AAPL should be doing well this decade and next. People don't understand what they're building now, but as a developer I do -- it's a P L A T F O R M.

Back in '07, WinMo was a joke, Symbian sucked, Android was a startup, Palm was dead, RIM was app-hostile, and Apple was able to come in and school everyone, including me.

Generally I am hypercritical of technology, but the iPhone evolution has impressed me with how well put-together everything has been, considering the starting point.

Not that it was or is perfect, but they're evolving this thing really fast and really well, and their foundational decisions were well thought-out. (FWIW, I am equally impressed with xbox 360 & XNA stuff from MS)

As iPhone 4-level hw becomes more affordable, Apple is going to own more & more of the market. They've got critical mass now, I think.

97   American in Japan   2011 Aug 24, 3:00pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

@Vicente

>I picked a bad day to stop sniffing glue.

Lloyd Bridges in "Airplane"?

98   Vicente   2011 Aug 24, 3:02pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

American in Japan says

Lloyd Bridges in "Airplane"?

Bingo!

If the stock gets smashed tomorrow, I'm doubling down.

99   iwog (221/221 = 100% civil)   2011 Aug 24, 4:25pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

Vicente says

If the stock gets smashed tomorrow, I'm doubling down.

I'm going to refinance another mortgage.

It doesn't look like we're going to see a big flop tomorrow however. Futures just aren't buying it.

100   FortWayne (43/44 = 97% civil)   2011 Aug 25, 12:57am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

so far it's a pretty large drop.

101   Vicente   2011 Aug 25, 1:07am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

Large? Less than 2% is not big enough to entice me to buy more. Well I suppose there's still the prospect of a drop due to Fed announcement today.

102   Vicente   2011 Aug 26, 5:27am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

Damn you QE3 & iQuit, damp squibs the both of you! I was counting on a big stock market drop to load up the truck. Well I'll have to content myself with the block I did buy at 360.

103   Done!   2011 Aug 26, 6:07am  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

clambo says

I know Chinese people who are extremely proud of their name-engraved iPods that cost them 1/4 month's wages.

Are you saying there's no people that make 300 or less in this country that have iPods.

104   ¥   2011 Sep 15, 7:29am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

SF ace says

It took awhile but Ka-Ching.

wow. May 11 was at $240, so that's a nice drop.

'course if you could hold your short through its move to 300 that came later you're a better a trader than I.

Stupid LEH moves pushed me out of my puts in Sept 2008. Took a $1000 loss when I could have banked $30,000 had I held a week.

105   Katy Perry   2011 Sep 15, 3:02pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

I don't gamble with my money. tuck your ego and get a life.

106   Katy Perry   2011 Sep 15, 3:20pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

remember folks there is always someone makeing more and spending more. that ego's a bitch isn't it.

107   surfingerman   2011 Sep 18, 11:48pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

guys im really starting to worry about iwog and his puts and options.. im not even joking here, if anyone knows him irl could you try to get him some gambling addiction help,if you cant afford it or something contact me thanks

108   Vicente   2011 Sep 19, 2:47am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

Cracked a new high of 411.50

109   iwog (221/221 = 100% civil)   2011 Sep 19, 1:40pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

May be time to short again. =)

110   Vicente   2011 Sep 19, 2:03pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

How's the insider selling action?

111   Dan8267 (306/309 = 99% civil)   2011 Sep 19, 3:35pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

thunderlips11 says

Typical Chinese Family makes less than $9,000 a year. Rent alone runs $300-500 for shacks in the slums with a shared outhouse and one cold water pump for 8 families. Education is not free beyond the 8th-9th grade level.

There is absolutely no assistance, food stamps, ER visits or anything covered by the government. How many will splurge $200 on an iPhone?

Homo Economicus. Like Bigfoot, reported to exist in fantasy books, but never seen in the wild.

And yet, corporate America will tell you that this is where all the talented engineers live. 'Nuff said.

112   Vicente   2011 Sep 20, 12:11am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

iwog says

May be time to short again. =)

By all means, love to hear when you're going in for the kill.

This abrupt runup does put me off. Reaction to imminent new product releases I think.

Going to set some trailing stops.

113   iwog (221/221 = 100% civil)   2011 Sep 20, 6:26am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

I'd consider it, however I'm going whole hog on the silver and gold short positions right now.

114   EBGuy   2011 Sep 28, 4:41am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

What do people think about Bezo's latest move? I imagine he's taking a big hit on hardware margins to sell content (the old give away the razor, sell the blades approach). My only disappoint with the Kindle Fire is the 576p screen (1024x600) screen; would it have killed them to go to 720p (1280x800). Well, probably, as it might turn into a loss leader at that point. At any rate, it matches the current iPad for widescreen playback. It is interesting to see how tightly they tied it to their cloud (with browser support and storage), which is one reason they skimped on the local flash memory (8Mb). All in all though, very impressive. It may even draw out a techno-luddite like me to do an impulse buy. Anybody know if this has an HDMI port?

115   Vicente   2011 Sep 28, 4:58am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

Meh.

Sooner or later there will be an iPad killer.

However this ain't it. The app catalog is miniscule.

It'll be an impulse buy sure for some. Others are more like a schoolteacher who asked me questions, who has an iPhone and now that it's time to replace a 6-year old Windows laptop was thinking to buy a Macbook. Once people get hooked by one piece of the technology, buying into the ecosystem for simplicity is a more attractive thing than a price point. We all want to spend less time learning to use gadgets.

Personally I'm still ticked off we don't have a unified "Microwave Oven" standard by now. Every blasted time I encounter a new one in a break room or hotel or something, I have to waste a minute or two pushing buttons until I figure out how it works.

116   EBGuy   2011 Sep 28, 5:36am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

Meh.
However this ain't it. The app catalog is miniscule.

Good point. Looks like they said "No thank you" to Google(!) and customized the interface. Very interesting play. A customized ROM could open the tablet up (but that is not exactly mass market).

117   corntrollio   2011 Sep 29, 9:04am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

Vicente says

The app catalog is miniscule.

I don't think it will be forever. Most app developers want to display their wares on as many platforms as possible, and Amazon has been aggressive with their terms in order to try to make sure their app store is as good as Google's. Their alleged value-adds aren't that great though.

118   bigbubblemama   2011 Sep 29, 10:09am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

Tech is a different animal, when you own all the patents, others have to do it the harder different way, the first railroad in is sometime the only railroad in. I see apple momentum kicking up, I don't own a iphone, but these customers are loyal and some public schools are buying ipads for every child, they are getting their customers younger and younger, honestly though best of luck hope I am wrong for your sake

119   Vicente   2011 Sep 29, 12:54pm  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

So Amazon is going the "walled garden" approach of iPad. Interface doesn't apparently look very Android-like. We'll see but I'm skeptical they could have gone more open and instead decided to try and beat Apple at their own game.

120   ¥   2011 Sep 29, 1:04pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

^ nobody gives a shit about "open". Or "Android-like" for that matter.

121   Kevin   2011 Sep 30, 3:26pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

Amazon made the Kindle Fire because nobody is buying CDs, DVDs, or paperbacks anymore. It's that simple.

They couldn't care less about other people's products -- they just need to make sure that their bread and butter doesn't dry up so that they can remain profitable.

Amazon is a retailer. It is not the same type of company as Apple, Google, HP, or Microsoft. They have more in common with wal mart than they do with Apple.

If Wal Mart released an identical tablet, nobody would care.

122   immigrant   2011 Oct 5, 9:55am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

123   CL (1/1 = 100% civil)   2011 Oct 5, 9:55am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

RIP indeed.

124   Vicente   2011 Oct 5, 10:28am  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

Oh my aching AAPL shares. Picked up some in the dip the other day thinking it was a good entry point. Once again.....

125   CL (1/1 = 100% civil)   2011 Oct 5, 10:39am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

Vicente says

Oh my aching AAPL shares. Picked up some in the dip the other day thinking it was a good entry point. Once again.....

“Eagles are dandified vultures” - Teddy Roosevelt

Even if there's a sell-off, you could buy more tomorrow. But do you think it will rally by x-mas?

126   Vicente   2011 Oct 5, 12:58pm  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

CL says

Even if there's a sell-off, you could buy more tomorrow. But do you think it will rally by x-mas?

Not willing to double down on it at this point. Well not unless it drops a LOT. I'll stand pat for a bit and see.

127   zzyzzx (94/94 = 100% civil)   2011 Oct 6, 4:15am  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

He isn't dead, you were just holding him wrong.

Is my ipod going to be worth more now?

His casket cost $499 million dollars because Apple made it

128   corntrollio   2011 Oct 6, 5:17am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

You forgot to add the "too soon?".

129   B.A.C.A.H.   2011 Oct 6, 7:37am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

Those of us who were around back in the day may recall reading some of this stuff when it was in the headlines, about Apple's Near Death experience.

Gil Amelio was like all humans, with flaws. But also, like Bush creating a some favorable conditions for his successor, then pushed aside by his successor who'd get all the credit.

http://lowendmac.com/orchard/05/gil-amelio-apple.html

So after Jobs was dismissed and the Army of Sycophants had nearly driven the company to its death, Amelio may still have turned it around without Jobs' return. In that case perhaps maybe it'd be just another company, kind of like the chip company that Amelio had turned around. Of course we know how it turned out with Jobs in creative controlling force.

But without Jobs' Return, an Amelio-kinda turnaround into a bland middling company, with all kudos to Amelio for saving companies, would've been the best that could've been hoped for.

Like Cupertino Fortress housing, will it be DIfferent This Time?

130   zzyzzx (94/94 = 100% civil)   2011 Oct 7, 2:47am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

corntrollio says

You forgot to add the "too soon?".

Not really!

131   Vicente   2011 Oct 14, 2:45am  ↑ like   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

Well, things seem going swimmingly for the AAPL today during 4S launch.

I put a stop sell in for 415 after it passed 417. If it keeps rising I'll switch to a trailing stop percentage late today or tomorrow. Earnings in a couple of weeks so barring some general stock market drop my guess is it'll keep rising for a while.

Also my 4S is supposed to arrive by UPS today, so an all-around great day.

132   sf.irony   2011 Oct 17, 1:29am  ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike   quote   top   bottom   home   share  

Ouch. Why do people short companies that are on a roll? Why do people short companies because they think "this price is too high"?

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