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  mbSFBay   ignore (0)   2012 Jul 27, 11:10am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

dunross,

I don't know why you have this axe to grind against OP ?

I have followed OP over zillow - and I think he has been pretty objective overall.

In his market (Phoenix area, AZ), he feels the bottom has been hit - and all signs point to that being true - only time can tell, if that is indeed true - but chances are, he is correct.

It is possible that the bottom has not been hit in other areas (I hope SF Bay area is one of those areas where the bottom is yet to be hit) - I have been sitting on the sidelines for last 4 year hoping for reasonable P/E ratios in the SF Bay area.

Anyways - I am keeping an open mind - not going to put blinders on - just because I desire the house prices to come down to reasonable levels. If there are greater fools in enough numbers, with sufficient purchasing power - there is not a goddam thing I can do about the inflated prices.

  mbSFBay   ignore (0)   2013 Jan 27, 4:59am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Waiting - I don't know if anyone can say that the price gains will stick.

With all the Fed/Helicopter Ben stimuli, interest rates 30 % lower as compared to last year, inventory 34 % of what it was last year (at least in the SF Bay), house prices have managed to eke out some impressive gains.

I am not sure if the gain is driven by demand, or rather by a combination of diminished supply (some of it may well be temporary) and Fed stimulus.

Waiting to see if the upturn is permanent, or just a head fake. Hope - there is more clarity in the next few months

  mbSFBay   ignore (0)   2013 Jan 27, 5:32am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Thedaytoday says

They will find a way to blow up a bubble. They always do.

I am appalled at the collective amnesia our societies seem to be prone to.

I guess - Govts. love a bubble - inflate the asset prices, and tax collections will follow - maybe that is the intention.

Nobody seems to be looking back and thinking about the excess leverage that got us into the crisis. Instead of pulling back on the leverage - which probably is bigger now then when we entered the crisis - they are congratulating themselves on a job done well - banks have been re-capitalized, given a gentle slap on the wrists (with a wink and a nod to go forth and leverage up the wazoo).

Don't know who will be left holding the bag in the end ? Not sure if Society's future productivity gains will be outsized enough to stave off disaster.

  mbSFBay   ignore (0)   2013 Jul 30, 1:59pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I have been following this guy's (Lakshman Achutan) utterances on Nightly Business Report for the last 5 years - I would say one thing, he ain't no Nostradamus (actually even Nostradamus was not Nostradamus, most of his predictions were vague, you probably could fit any event to match the prediction - after the event had already occurred), and he ain't no Herodotus - his analysis of the past is usually way off.

  mbSFBay   ignore (0)   2013 Aug 1, 11:27am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

curious2 says

robertoaribas says

pressure cookers are also vastly more energy efficient; everything cooks so much faster that you waste much less cooking energy.

Considering Boyle's Law, I wonder if someday it might be possible to cook using pressure alone, or maybe with solar heat or marinade. For example, if you want to go camping or live "off the grid", you might heat something with solar hot water, then increase the pressure with something like a bicycle pump. Heating and cooling use a lot of energy with current technology, but more efficient alternatives may become available. Humans can produce only modest heat (40C) directly, but we can exert considerable mechanical force.

LOL. The concept behind this is to seal it to allow the pressure to rise, which in turn raises the temperature - entropy of steam - (which in turn helps cook things faster). Solar hot water won't do it, but something that concentrates solar rays to a small focal point (say a large parabola or lens) might do it.

I have used a simple gasifier stove (constructed using 2 campbell soup cans - one large and one small) to cook a whole meal for a family of five using a fistful of wood chips - with a 20 liter pressure cooker.

  mbSFBay   ignore (0)   2013 Aug 1, 4:07pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Poor rats - must be suffering from diabetes and hypertension. They need some greens and exercise.

  mbSFBay   ignore (0)   2013 Aug 3, 2:51am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

robertoaribas says

so, last year, Shiller said "don't buy Phoenix..."

good freaking advice, phoenix went up 25% since he made those comments!!!!!!!

And, to dispute you bubble idiots, the median price just crossed $180K. Do your own math on the monthly expenses buying a $180K house with say even 5% FHA loan, $$2000 taxes, $700 insurance, and see how it compares to an $1100 - $1300 current rent. The owner pays less, still today.

No - I thought what he said was that he believes in momentum - and we could be off to the races - for a year or so. He is ambivalent about whether the gains would stick, or whether they would start coming down after interest rate rise and investors moving out. He expressed concern that the speculative nature of the markets could leave people who bought into the bubble high and dry later.

  mbSFBay   ignore (0)   2013 Aug 3, 2:53am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

robertoaribas says

so, last year, Shiller said "don't buy Phoenix..."

good freaking advice, phoenix went up 25% since he made those comments!!!!!!!

And, to dispute you bubble idiots, the median price just crossed $180K. Do your own math on the monthly expenses buying a $180K house with say even 5% FHA loan, $$2000 taxes, $700 insurance, and see how it compares to an $1100 - $1300 current rent. The owner pays less, still today.

I am also of the view that Phoenix market overshot on the downside, and probably there were great deals to be made.

However, I am not so sure if the same applies to the SF Bay area.

  mbSFBay   ignore (0)   2013 Aug 3, 3:28am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

CaptainShuddup says

It barley gopher-ed.

You know when have to Fart, and you feel this huge bulge of gas? Then you analyze the situation for the possibility of a silent controlled release, but then you realize in the present company you shouldn't risk the chance of an audible queue, so you hold. Then you feel that gas magically traverse and dissipate.

The economy was never even there.

Silent - but deadly !!!!

  mbSFBay   ignore (0)   2013 Aug 3, 8:57am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Quigley says

California has different concerns. Low inventory coupled with foreign cash buyers desperate to acquire property and take advantage of immigration loopholes will keep/drive prices higher irrespective of small interest rate fluctuations.

Famous last words -"This time it is different. This area is different. This is a fortress area (yup Cupertino/Saratoga might be fortresses, but bay are is much bigger than those 2 areas)."

  mbSFBay   ignore (0)   2013 Aug 5, 11:23am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I know a lot of additional housing stock (rentals as well as ownerships) will bestarting to come on stream - that is really going to speed up starting next year (Milpitas, Fremont Warm Springs - generally the whole Bart Extension corridor to San Jose), Pleasanton (close to 3.4K units), Ardenwood patterson ranch, Berryessa area.

I have also noticed that a lot of Properties (rental) that used to formerly accept month to month rent - are insisting on year long leases (or pay a huge month to month premium) - wonder if that is in anticipation of soon to be increasing choices for renters.

  mbSFBay   ignore (0)   2013 Aug 18, 2:44am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

BTW - the Tesla factory is in Fremont (the old NUMMI plant that made Toyota corolla and Pontiac Vibe)

  mbSFBay   ignore (0)   2013 Aug 19, 12:25am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I hope you are right. Asset prices have gotten way out of whack with reality.

  mbSFBay   ignore (0)   2013 Aug 19, 8:43am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

http://patrick.net/?p=1228334

This seems to contain snippets from the yahoo! finance and Reuters post I had linked in my previous post.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-higher-prices-sap-foreign-040338632.html

  mbSFBay   ignore (0)   2013 Aug 19, 1:42pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Bubbabear says

bmwman91 says

It went all-cash to Chinese nationals

It went all cash to Chinese bagholders! "Got it"...

The Chinese bag holder probably got rich in the real estate Ponzi scheme going on out there - but may be on the way to unravelling.

  mbSFBay   ignore (0)   2013 Aug 25, 1:42pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I - for one (I am a housing bear right now, at least for the SF Bay Area - and I think it is around 20 % over valued, at the most - and we are going to have proportional inflation soon - if FED does not do away with the taper in the near future ) always thought that Roberto was spot on in his earlier days and almost morphed into an NAR cheerleader (without owing allegiance to the NAR) in his later life.

This forum is divided in camps - bear or bull - and the constant screaming and shouting seems to drown any constructive discourse - so hopefully, we will see some signs of intelligent life on this forum.

I will miss Roberto.

  mbSFBay   ignore (0)   2013 Sep 11, 10:22am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Wow - uncle Ben sure knew what was coming next. :-)

  mbSFBay   ignore (0)   2013 Sep 11, 10:52am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Will you have some rice with that ?

  mbSFBay   ignore (0)   2013 Sep 13, 2:04am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

looks like no interest in thread ... so add a bump

... sure thing ... it can only go up and up and up... buy now or be priced out forever ...

  mbSFBay   ignore (0)   2013 Sep 14, 3:12am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Tim Aurora says

I predict a quiet Winter. Price increase holds but barely as booth sellers and buyer go back to trenches. Come spring , we may see another spurt and house prices increase another 10% nationwide.

Of course Fed is an X factor

It may not be quite quiet and sanguine. The Fed and free money has a lot to do with the surging prices. Incomes have not gone up - but prices are almost back to what was considered an unprecedented bubble. I think deflation and correction is probably more likely than another spurt.

http://www.mercurynews.com/business/ci_24089191/bay-area-housing-market-cooling

  mbSFBay   ignore (0)   2013 Sep 15, 2:10am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

You will be tried for treason if you don't buy a house at over inflated prices.

  mbSFBay   ignore (0)   2014 Jun 27, 3:13pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Turkana Boy - prolly very painful death.

  mbSFBay   ignore (0)   2019 Feb 22, 10:34am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Of course, I still don't get why this should be considered a crime in this day and age - the world's oldest profession is considered illegal in this modern era. That needs to change.
  mbSFBay   ignore (0)   2019 Feb 23, 5:20pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Hmm.. dunno how and when they go after the Johns. Is this a case of an overzealous cop/prosecutor gone wild ?
  mbSFBay   ignore (0)   2019 Mar 29, 1:41pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch says
Kakistocracy says
Since 2007, Asians have been buying more cars and trucks than people in any other region — by about 2030 they will be buying as many vehicles as the rest of the world combined, according to LMC Automotive.


Great! They'll all be dead by 2030, given how they drive!

VICTORY! FOR! WHITE! PEOPLE!


I find this hilarious, and I am Asian, kinda, the brown kinda.
  mbSFBay   ignore (0)   2019 Apr 7, 7:47am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

That stinks! It is fake news - probably op should have posted on 1st April.
  mbSFBay   ignore (0)   2019 Jun 28, 9:26am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Patrick says
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7184435/Vehicles-left-muddy-mess-field-Google-Maps-offered-short-cut-Denver-airport.html

Dozens of vehicles struggled through a 'muddy mess' of a road on Sunday after they followed directions from Google Maps that offered a short cut to the Denver International Airport.

Connie Monsees, a Highlands Ranch native, used her Google maps app to divert around a traffic jam on Pena Boulevard on Sunday. She soon wound up on the muddy off-road.

'It eventually took me to a road that...became dirt,' Monsees explained on an ABC News podcast. 'I was not the only one, there was probably a hundred cars out there.'




I drive in a vanpool from Redwood City to Fremont. We have learnt to ignore google directions. It wants us to take the Willlow Road (going east from 101 sount) for the evening commute for the last couple of years. That exit has been a nightmare forever - and any other driver that follows it probably adds 30 minutes to their commute.
  mbSFBay   ignore (0)   2019 Jul 25, 9:39am     ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

Just like any other Ethnic group or cohorts, there is average, below average, excellent and exceptional talent coming from India - following the normal distribution curve (Bell curve).

Now that some of the former H1-Bs are CEOs (the company stagnating with Ballmer is thriving with an Indian CEO) - folks with a racist bend will attribute that success to sheer luck and no talent - and feel that these folks are driving down CEO pay to depressing levels.

The progeny of these low level programmers have the Scripps spelling bee, National geography bee and Jeopardy Teen tournaments locked up pretty good (for those who follow such mindless activities that go on in the US of A).

The slum dwellers of India seem to now be locking on Talent contests out here (America's Got Talent, World of Dance).

Be dismissive of Indian talent at your own peril. American car companies were dismissive of Japanese Cars at some point.

Enjoy your beer, football, worship of sports stars and celebrities and keep denigrating other cultures as inferior to your own.
  mbSFBay   ignore (0)   2019 Sep 15, 3:15pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

My hope, the Iranians will someday remember their glorious part and overcome the hypocrisy that Islam has brought about in their minds and psyche. US of A should help them get out of the crap Islam has thrust on Iran/Afghanistan/Central Asia etc. Please analyze the X vs Y chromosome of the region and one will know the massacres Arabs have subjected the men folk to, and the subsequent enslavement of the womenfolk of the area, and the progeny that came about as a result. Hopefully, there will be some sense of retribution that will be awoken in their collective psyche at some point.

My hope is that Islam will eventually be rejected and snuffed out from the Middle East - there are the laws of physics and the increasing ability of absolute morons to inflict mass destruction that I fear - they will destroy the world before rationality can take effect on earth. My hope is that rationality will eventually prevail - before these atavistic idiots gain the capacity to destroy intelligent life as we know it.

My fervent hope is that Iran will be the first to throw out Islam - and the Syrians and the descendants of the Phoenicians and other Levantines will have the courage to follow.

It is sickening that billions of folks believe in the crap dished out by this guy who lusted after his own daughter in law (and then changed the rules of adoption as it suited the purpose of sleeping with her, even though it was previously forbidden by the rules he himself had laid out earlier) ? That sick guy convinced the illiterates of his ilk to believe that whatever came before Islam was ignorance (jahiliyat) - and unfortunately, this occurred at a time when established civilizations were constantly being uprooted by the un civilized - and this dude convinced his folks that this was willed by a divine power, and therefore had sanctity and was divinely ordained.

Unfortunately, 20th century and the choice of the preferred source of energy brought about a lot of wealth to these same mentally deranged societies - sudden wealth to realms that had hitherto subsisted on pillage and rape and had done absolutely nothing to progress the cause of mankind, societies that ill deserved the wealth that was suddenly thrust upon them. The world continues to pay the price for that aberration - and these societies continue to fuel the jihads - getting willing recruits from the poorest regions of this world, paid for by filling their bellies in this life, and the promise of constant orgiastic deliverance in the life hereafter.
  mbSFBay   ignore (0)   2019 Oct 4, 10:39am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Blue says
India will be a next rising Islamic country in few decades, that will add another 1.4 b Muslims. World really needs a serious and tough leaders to handle this kind of trash.


Well - Muslims constituted 7.8% of India at the time of independence (and creation of Pakistan) in 1947, and are close to 15% now - but demographics are predicting it will peak around 20%. Hopefully, they will join the mainstream of India and become the moderating force for all Muslims of the world.

A lot of the crap comes from the fact that Saudi Arabia became crazy stinking rich, thanks to the Worlds hunger for oil, and was able to sponsor it's crazy version (one amongst many crazy versions going around) in most of the poorer Islamic countries. My hope is that the world will come to rely on oil less and less, and shrinking Saudi wealth may help subdue some of the craziness.
  mbSFBay   ignore (0)   2019 Oct 19, 8:50pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Is this word - throuple - in the lexicon yet ? If it is, I added to my vocabulary today.
  mbSFBay   ignore (0)   2019 Oct 19, 8:57pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

The Lion air case has another twist - the Captain had succeeded in fighting off MCAS, and wanted to figure out what was going on, so handed controls to the first office, to free himself and look into the documentation in order to figure out the cause of this rogue behavior. The first officer chose to do nothing, simply murmuring prayers about the greatness of his Divine instead of countering the MCAS manually.
  mbSFBay   ignore (0)   2019 Nov 22, 3:26pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Rats are like us (physiologically speaking), so maybe they should get to vote. They couldn't do worse than people anyways.
  mbSFBay   ignore (0)   2019 Dec 14, 6:21pm     ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

Patrick says
OK, train them over there as long as there is a high probability they will die fighting Iran.

I don't dislike the Iranians. They are also deeply infected with Islam, true, but when was the last time any Shiite attacked anyone in the West? I cannot recall any such attacks.

All the Muslim murderers are Sunni Wahhabis, and they are all funded and motivated by Saudi Arabia and Qatar. I hope Iran blows them off the map.


There was this chance in modern history that Iranians would modernize in the Western sense, and would have culturally leaned back on their legacy before the arrival of Islam (Arabs took a few hundred years to suppress the Iranians). Unfortunately idiotic US policy interventions (with the help of the CIA) to prop up the despotic Shah sent Iranians scurrying towards Islamic fundamentalism.

However, if there is any country in the Middle East that could be in step with the modern world in the near future, I think it is Iran. They are much less dogmatic then the Sunni Arabs.

If Iran takes a turn for the better, it would have a salubrious effect on countries like Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. Saudis, Pakistan, Afghanistan are too far gone - would take a revolution of sorts with a lot of lost lives to wean them off Jihadist ideologies.
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