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  ThreeBays   ignore (3)   2020 Apr 30, 11:33am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

willywonka says
Who should be locked down?


If the goal is herd immunity, then the vulnerable should be locked down.

But this hasn't been the goal - the goal is suppression and containment.
  ThreeBays   ignore (3)   2020 Apr 30, 12:14pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

NoCoupForYou says
The projection was 1M+ deaths in the USA and to hold the line so hospitals wouldn't be overwhelmed. Condition #1 never happened and definitely won't at this point. Condition #2 clearly isn't met - half of Cali hospital beds are empty.


The lockdown achieved the goals, therefore the lockdown isn't needed? Pretzel logic. The risk is not gone - the fatality rates confirm the original fears if not somewhat worse due to all the unaccounted deaths.

The right step now is to open carefully and not lose what we sacrificed so much for. C-19 is going to be with us for a a while.
  ThreeBays   ignore (3)   2020 Apr 30, 12:17pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Let me guess Trump ranked the as the worst president.
  ThreeBays   ignore (3)   2020 Apr 30, 12:35pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

willywonka says
The goal is illogical. You want folks who won't die to have immunity. You want folks who are at high risk of dying to be locked down. You are killing the future elderly by preventing them from developing immunity to the virus when they have an effective immune system to do so.


We don't know yet if long term immunity can be developed for covid-19. We don't have immunity for all the common cold coronaviruses and yearly influenza.
  ThreeBays   ignore (3)   2020 Apr 30, 2:09pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Onvacation says
You can't suppress or contain Covid-19. It's too late; it's already out there.


Not true, look at South Korea. They suppressed it to nearly 0 and that's in dense cities.
  ThreeBays   ignore (3)   2020 Apr 30, 4:04pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

NoCoupForYou says
Why is the US so much lower than Europe


Mainly timing in the curve. We were able to see Italy's outbreak first and then react much earlier in our own states curves.

There's a strong correlation between how early in the curve we locked and total deaths. Also a clear pattern of 18 days from shutdown to peak deaths.

  ThreeBays   ignore (3)   2020 Apr 30, 5:17pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

If Trump was doing well he wouldn't be so mad at ratings/media/who/anyone else he could blame.
  ThreeBays   ignore (3)   2020 May 1, 10:41am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Onvacation says
From your articles hockey stick graph:

"Figure 2: weekly deaths by year, all influenza deaths removed, 2020 corrected for delays in reporting."

What does it look like without the flu deaths removed?


"For completion, the same cumulative approach was used with a MAX of historical weekly deaths by all causes and a MIN of historical Influenza-related deaths. This resulted in a projected excess number of deaths of 102,733. This can be considered the most optimistic scenario, compared to the 125,512 of the most realistic scenario. Even then, the most optimistic scenario indicates official reporting of deaths is a factor 5.5 too low."
  ThreeBays   ignore (3)   2020 May 1, 10:48am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Patrick says
Maybe some of the excess deaths are being caused by the shutdown


There's also a large decrease in accidental deaths because of the shutdown.
  ThreeBays   ignore (3)   2020 May 1, 11:20am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

@Ceffer very lame fake news.
@Patrick these hypotheses can be checked by looking at facts across states that locked down and don't have a lot of C19 deaths like Texas and others.
  ThreeBays   ignore (3)   2020 May 1, 9:03pm     ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag      

The corrupt Trump cultists wrongly project their own defects onto others. They reject facts. They accept lies from their chosen news and their chosen president, and have come to think this is normal. In turn they assume that real facts, real science, and real debate must also be fake, since that is what they know and that's the only way they can play.

It's amazing that the only thing Trump can say he did well was close (partially) travel from China early, and the only thing to hurl at Democrats is that they called out the president for Xenophobia. The latter never seems to include mention that Trump's approach really did provoke hate crimes against Asian Americans.

Regarding whether or not EU bans were worth it, that is a fact since covid-19 already had massive community spread in the States with what we've seen develop into 1 million confirmed cases and probably 10 to 20 million cases total. Importation of the virus was/is no longer a substantial contributor to the spread.
  ThreeBays   ignore (3)   2020 May 1, 9:18pm     ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag      

NoCoupForYou says
Or the models that powered the lockdowns, claiming 1M deaths, and overcrowded hospitals - the latter even if we did lockdown.


They were accurate. Our actions prevented that for now.
  ThreeBays   ignore (3)   2020 May 1, 9:31pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

richwicks says
The whole thing seems to be a hoax. You know anybody that's died from it? Supposedly more people have died from this virus than were killed in Vietnam.


I know of people in NY that did. About 1 in 5000 Americans died so it's not statistically unusual to not know someone unless you are in NY.
  ThreeBays   ignore (3)   2020 May 1, 9:42pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

richwicks says
"this is MAGA country" (you know, Chicago - THAT'S Trump territory)?


There are scumbags everywhere. They're just in different ratios in blue states.
  ThreeBays   ignore (3)   2020 May 1, 10:36pm     ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag      

You can have your own chance of death but you can't choose it for someone else.
  ThreeBays   ignore (3)   2020 May 2, 1:20am     ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag      

HeadSet says
If that is the case, you must credit Trump.


Yeah, I credit Trump to the degree he's listened to the scientists. He's tried to mix in relating solid guidance with defending himself too much and pandering to his idiot supporters in his public messaging, so I give him 1 out of 3.
  ThreeBays   ignore (3)   2020 May 2, 11:51am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

richwicks says
Don't you realize how much he's been correct about?


Get out of your echo chamber. The ratio of him being correct to incorrect is not even close. A broken clock is right twice a day.
  ThreeBays   ignore (3)   2020 May 2, 12:05pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

richwicks says
He called the Covid-19 threat "a hoax". I'm sure the disease exists. It seems to be about as dangerous as the flu. Was he right?


He was not right. Where are you getting that it's as dangerous as the flu?
  ThreeBays   ignore (3)   2020 May 2, 4:42pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

richwicks says
He was not right. Where are you getting that it's as dangerous as the flu?


According to the CDC 62,000 people died of the flu last year.


We're like 2-3% through this epidemic in the US. All indications are that excess deaths this period are larger than recorded COVID-19 deaths. Are you just trolling?

New York City might be 25% through, but they make up just 2.5% of the US population.
  ThreeBays   ignore (3)   2020 May 5, 11:01pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

It's been a couple of weeks. US graphs have been moving sideways as predicted. Some states like NY have peaked and come down, while some like Florida are moving sideways. California seemed to dip and then move sideways. Illinois and Texas and and many states are still moving up. This means that infection is still highly prevalent as states try to open up their economy.

We crossed the 60K predictions, pushing on 70K. The White House's favored IHME model has completely revamped their models, now projecting 134K fatalities by end of August. Seems optimistic. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

I've been using this model https://covid19-projections.com/about/ more since it seems to have had the closest predictions so far. It's currently forecasting 156K fatalities by end of July.


  ThreeBays   ignore (3)   2020 May 5, 11:17pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

mell says
It's normal to see a rise in states that have not been affected much prior, doesn't necessarily mean the lockdown or lack thereof is responsible for it.


The states that are coming down are due to a combination of the shutdowns plus building a % of immunity. Most states haven't built a significant % of immunity so that's why they're still going up. Loosening shutdowns will make infections rise, but it'll be about 2 weeks before this is visible in cases and almost 3 weeks until a change in fatalities.
  ThreeBays   ignore (3)   2020 May 10, 10:10pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

WookieMan says
No one flag this comment (unlike the other one that got flagged of mine for no reason). I want it to just sit here. The hypocrisy is astounding. I love it.


Just noticed this. The line was a jest, verbatim from the SNL video if that wasn't obvious.
  ThreeBays   ignore (3)   2020 May 10, 10:17pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Sweden's mobility data dropped almost as if they had locked down with people more and more observing their health agency's guidance. As opposed to rioting here.
  ThreeBays   ignore (3)   2020 May 10, 10:24pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Patrick says
Sticking by a max of 80,000, with more evidence:



From https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america


Sadly we passed your max estimate. Many serology studies around the country are showing low digit infection numbers, so there's still a long way to go.
  ThreeBays   ignore (3)   2020 May 11, 8:17am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

@Patrick

This data has documented lag.

"*Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction, age, and cause of death."

Here's the estimated excess deaths based on historical weighting until April 18: 66,081. Johns Hopkins was 39,331.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
  ThreeBays   ignore (3)   2020 May 11, 7:16pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

joshuatrio says



I wonder if you can read what it says at the bottom of your graph?
  ThreeBays   ignore (3)   2020 May 17, 1:51pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

NoCoupForYou says
logic says
What really sucks is that I was right about how much Trump would add to the deficit too.


@Patrick 's Model didn't take into account that Libtard Governors of NJ, PA, and NY would send COVID sufferers to nursing homes.

Nobody thought their PhDs in Social Warfare and Public Administration (aka "Public Health Experts") would be dumb enough to do such a thing.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-sent-recovering-coronavirus-patients-to-nursing-homes-it-was-a-fatal-error-11589470773


As if Patrick actually had a model and not a baseless theory that C19 is no worse than a bad flu.
  ThreeBays   ignore (3)   2020 May 22, 2:58pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Georgia defies science deniers, and is surging in cases since May 11. Just took a while to show up due to test reporting lag.

  ThreeBays   ignore (3)   2020 May 22, 6:54pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

joshuatrio says
Here we are just over a week later. And the results are fantastic.

Still waiting on that second wave....


And here it is.

  ThreeBays   ignore (3)   2020 May 23, 11:21am     ↓ dislike (2)   quote   flag      

The bravest people to ever walk the earth, plus a few cowardly Republicans unwilling to wear face coverings to protect our most vulnerable.
  ThreeBays   ignore (3)   2020 May 23, 11:35am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

joshuatrio says

I already addressed what you claim is an giant second wave. A rise of 100 per day for a week, then a sharp drop is not a second wave.


We can't confirm a "sharp drop" due to the reporting lag. The rise was concealed for quite a while.
  ThreeBays   ignore (3)   2020 May 23, 12:20pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

joshuatrio says
LOL! A bump of an extra 100 cases per day for a week then drops like a CLIFF is a second wave?


Data in the last couple of weeks is still being filled in. Simple weighting based on recent lag shows Georgia could already have more daily cases than it's prior peak.

If this is just due to more testing that would be good news.
  ThreeBays   ignore (3)   2020 May 23, 2:36pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

WookieMan says
Stop focusing on new cases as there's more testing! This isn't complicated. I just posted a graph from the same source for deaths. That IS the scary part of this virus and it's clearly going away.


Given the lag we should not expect the deaths graph to reflect a second wave for at least another week.
  ThreeBays   ignore (3)   2020 May 23, 4:50pm     ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag      

Tenpoundbass says
You only get about 60% of your required Oxygen intake wearing those masks.


Wherever you get your information from is literally abusing you.
  ThreeBays   ignore (3)   2020 May 23, 9:58pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Patrick says
The bigger danger to masks is probably the impediment to getting rid of CO2.


Where do you suppose the volume of your lungs is able to hide when you exhale through your mask?
  ThreeBays   ignore (3)   2020 May 24, 2:46pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

NoCoupForYou says
The people ponying up the graphs, facts, science in this thread and others are the Shutdown Skeptics.


The shutdown skeptics put up graphs of the case trend, and then when the same graphs surged up suddenly those graphs are no longer valid. I wonder when the death graph starts trending up what the new arguments will be?
  ThreeBays   ignore (3)   2020 May 24, 3:56pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

WookieMan says
Not true at all. Anyone needing or receiving critical care, close to death, has likely been tested days if not weeks ago. Basically there's a high probability that we know when someone passes if they have COVID-19 or not. Those numbers cannot lag as much as fresh cases.


It takes an average of 5 days to become symptomatic, 18 days from symptoms to death, and some number of days lag in reporting of the death. This lag can be easily seen if you watch numbers being filled in.
  ThreeBays   ignore (3)   2020 May 24, 10:04pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

mell says
The narrative instilled in people's minds by the lamestream media and certain leftoids is now that Sweden is a failure because they have a moderate to high infection/death rate compared to other countries, however they are somewhere around 5-10 in the top 10 with many countries with strict lockdowns with higher rates in front of them. Nonetheless I have heard that argument now at least 5 times and always had to correct them that there's zero statistical significance in those varations.


Sweden should be compared to other Nordic countries, not to countries that were hit by an earlier wave with higher traffic. Sweden already has 5 to 10 times more deaths per capita than its bordering neighbors (Denmark, Norway, Finland).
  ThreeBays   ignore (3)   2020 May 25, 9:14pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

mell says
Sweden has 1.5 x cases per capita than Denmark and twice those of Norway and Finland, nothing to see here.


You're countering deaths per capita with cases per capita? You can't be serious.
  ThreeBays   ignore (3)   2020 May 25, 10:29pm     ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag      

mell says
Density. Pay attention. Infections and deaths of course are correlated as well but not as strongly as infections and deaths to density.


Sweden has 10 times more deaths per capita than Norway and Finland, and 4 times more than Denmark which has a higher population density than Sweden.

Not to mention these figures are continuing to increase faster than any other country.

Density wise Sweden is also much lower than France, and it's on track to pass it in total deaths per capita in a week or so.

Nothing to see here??????
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