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  ThreeBays   ignore (1)   2020 Mar 28, 10:36am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Tenpoundbass says

Nice selective quoting. Why not quote the rest if the sentence?

We have vaccines and immunity for influenza which keeps it from spreading to more than 5 to 10% of the population. We don't for COVID-19.
  ThreeBays   ignore (1)   2020 Mar 28, 10:39am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

WookieMan says
ThreeBays says
FL has a higher concentration than CA. 5 times more new cases today in FL than CA. Try again.

10-20% of FL is gonna die from this. Gonna be a blood bath that saves social security. Gotta find the positives in the moments of distress.

Nah, since they finally put out the shelter-in-plane order I don't think this will save social security.

Maybe if right-wing nuts convince everyone to return to the beaches, there's hope.
  ThreeBays   ignore (1)   2020 Mar 28, 10:45am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Patrick says

Sweden does not find the need for a national shutdown.

That's the viking spirit.

  ThreeBays   ignore (1)   2020 Mar 28, 10:55am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Tenpoundbass says
theoakman says
The people that left NYC for their summer homes have caused significant spread.

Florida went from just a few hundred cases to thousands over night, all in part because of the disastrous way those Commie Liberals handled the containment. Or lack there of.

I'm pretty sure Florida already has 1 million infected, or more than New York. It's just bubbling up now and will explode in a week to two.
  ThreeBays   ignore (1)   2020 Mar 28, 11:08am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Trump: "Chinese virus, the best thing that ever happened in my Presidency."
  ThreeBays   ignore (1)   2020 Mar 28, 11:28am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Shaman says
What’s changed over the last week is that people are starting to see that his leadership is actually getting us through this very weird crisis, and that he’s doing a decent job of it.

Recency bias. Trump is gradually suppressing himself and aligning with the scientists and experts behind him.

At the time to act and suppress the spread before getting to the point of having to shut down the economy, our CDC fumbled their testing and Trump downplayed it all as nothing.
  ThreeBays   ignore (1)   2020 Mar 28, 12:00pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Ceffer says
Trump isn't becoming a more competent speaker. People are just beginning to notice he always was a competent speaker, but the fake news blitz that he was crazy, stupid, or demented was so intense, they didn't see it.

No, it doesn't take media to tell you when he's waffling incoherently, or when he changed his style. Think for yourself.
  ThreeBays   ignore (1)   2020 Mar 28, 12:02pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

NuttBoxer says
I haven't, nor will I. My health is my responsibility, no one else's. If you're fat, ingest garbage, and take medication, you had this coming. And I have zero obligation to restrict my freedom to bail your fat, sick, lazy ass out.

This guy looks really unhealthy and irresponsible. I mean, does he even lift?

Hopefully weed + hydroxychloroquine will save your ass.
  ThreeBays   ignore (1)   2020 Mar 28, 12:37pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

rd6B says
The graphs show that flattening of the curve decreases the total # of infected persons by order or more of magnitude (area below curve), which can not be true.

I think it is true, but of course it's also temporary. Lifting the suppression measures would lead to a re-surgence without other measures following up like accurate testing in larger numbers, isolation, and contact tracing for people with symptoms.

You can see on the infection curves have been flattened already, and flattened sooner in states like California that took earlier action. Without the shelter-in-place orders these graphs would have kept going up exponentially. So yes, flattening the curve has an exponential effect.

There's a 2 to 3 week lag between folks contracting the illness and potentially requiring hospitalization, so we're going to see that wave hit.
  ThreeBays   ignore (1)   2020 Mar 28, 12:38pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Based on the sickness anomaly on I get these numbers.

940k infected in Florida
590k infected in New York
520k infected in Texas
370k infected in California
140k infected in Washington
90k infected in Arizona
  ThreeBays   ignore (1)   2020 Mar 28, 12:41pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

370k infected in California = 0.9% of the population.
18000 infected in Sata Clara County = 0.9% of the population.

Sounds like my estimate is pretty close to the county's.
  ThreeBays   ignore (1)   2020 Mar 28, 12:54pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Patrick says
By hyping the Wuhan virus far beyond the actual danger (literally "orders of magnitude", as those Stanford docs put it in the WSJ yesterday) the media both helped Trump and undermined their own credibility yet further.

Based on what, self referential right-wing bot media? You're orders of magnitude wrong Patrick.
  ThreeBays   ignore (1)   2020 Mar 28, 12:57pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

So is your point that being gay puts you at higher mortality risk of covid or what?
  ThreeBays   ignore (1)   2020 Mar 28, 1:21pm     ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

Ceffer says
There is absolutely no accountability in the fake news about this condition. Disinformation piled on disinformation.

Thanks for summing up the right-wing media's news coverage of it.
  ThreeBays   ignore (1)   2020 Mar 28, 1:46pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Err, is that meme for me or the one who went digging for news that the victim was a homosexual?
  ThreeBays   ignore (1)   2020 Mar 28, 1:48pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Patrick says
Based on Stanford doctors who analyzed the data.

And based on Fauci's own paper in the NEJM.

Based on selective quoting of Fauci's own paper.

  ThreeBays   ignore (1)   2020 Mar 28, 1:56pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Patrick says
It will all become pretty clear in the next few weeks.

Yes, it will continue to become clear how wrong you are.

The Stanford professor just made a premature analysis based on Diamond Princess data and is thoroughly debunked already. The Diamond Princes is great in that they were able to test everybody. The death numbers and serious infections now mounted to figures that are worse than governments are assuming:

Confirmed Cases: 712
Deaths: 10 (1.4%)
Serious/Critical Condition: 15 (2.1%)

Total dead + serious is 3.5%, which is what ICU capacity needs to be planning for.
  ThreeBays   ignore (1)   2020 Mar 28, 2:29pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Patrick says

Half of those are downright wrong or misleading. Half are concerned about the economic impact without offering a better solution.
  ThreeBays   ignore (1)   2020 Mar 28, 2:57pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

rocketjoe79 says
USA numbers of confirmed cases are going up - this is a good sign as it means we are testing a lot better now. Likewise, the % of deaths has already gone back to normal flu levels. But, for this Special Election Year Flu, we had to crater the economy because Orange Man Bad. Unfortunately, a recession or depression will kill a lot more people globally. The Globe depends on strong USA economy. Without the USA floating everyone's boat, a certain number of humans on the margin will die.

We can't estimate the % of deaths while case numbers are growing exponentially.

Average time from symptoms to death is 18.5 days. 18 days ago we had less than 1000 confirmed cases, lol.

So is Italy, Spain, UK, France, Germany, Iran, etc. in on the deal to destroy their economy just to de-seat the orange one?
  ThreeBays   ignore (1)   2020 Mar 28, 3:04pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Patrick says

Total US deaths from Wuhan virus will be lower than deaths from the 2018 flu epidemic in the US.

Yes, but your prediction assumes the implementation of social distancing which you oppose. Pretzel logic as usual.
  ThreeBays   ignore (1)   2020 Mar 28, 3:11pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

My Prediction:

1) Over 2 million Americans already have COVID-19 and around 1% of them are unfortunately going to die no matter what, so in 3 weeks we will be over 20,000 deaths. Possibly more since the contagion will be particularly acute in certain cities, thereby overloading certain hospitals.
2) The number of deaths after that fully depends on state actions. It's likely that any state that has an active outbreak will continue to be on lock-down, which should have the case numbers flatten and hopefully decline as long as that continues.
  ThreeBays   ignore (1)   2020 Mar 28, 3:33pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

CovfefeButDeadly says
So you agree that this is no more deadly than the seasonal flu? Yes by rate, but no by sheer numbers?

Need to be much more specific. I agree the numbers in the next 3 week period will be no higher than annual flu deaths, if we keep the economy fucked. They will likely pass annual flu deaths in a 6 week period, and we won't be out of the woods yet.
  ThreeBays   ignore (1)   2020 Mar 28, 3:46pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

CovfefeButDeadly says
I do find it funny that you phrase it as “if we keep the economy fucked” like you’d somehow handle things differently. It’s so obvious you badly want to pin this on President Trump that you try to play both sides of the fence. Pretty ridiculous really.

Not at all, I think that keeping the economy fucked is the least bad option.

The reason I made a point to say "keep the economy fucked" is because the right wing propaganda is out in full force pretending that the virus was never a big deal by misquoting and misinterpreting any statement.

If Fauci went on the record saying "After we keep everybody locked in their homes for 3 months we will have only 40,000 deaths which will be no worse than seasonal flu" the right wing fake news machine and Patrick would report: We have been mislead to close our economy! Coronavirus is less deadly than seasonal flu! Fauci said so. "we will have only 40,000 deaths which will be less than seasonal flu".
  ThreeBays   ignore (1)   2020 Mar 28, 4:39pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

CBOEtrader says

Patients with severe complications from COVID-19 get ARDS which requires going into ICU and intubation. 40-to-50% of patients will die if they reach this point. He would strongly suggest not getting this disease...
  ThreeBays   ignore (1)   2020 Mar 28, 6:09pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

mell says
No. SC is the anomaly. There are many counties in CA with 0-100 infections. Those will all go to zero quickly. You won't get 1% of CA due to distancing. Maybe 0.2% at best. Of course over a long enough time line that may happen but that wouldn't be a problem for the hospitals to handle as long as they don't get all the cases at once. Herd immunity will eventually take over. Warm weather will help too. This is a serious illness but it's no apocalypse. Watch the CA numbers which have stalled and declined since hitting 1k new daily infections.

You're probably right, the southern counties have a lot less so around 1% in the Bay Area, but less throughout the state.

Herd immunity would require most of us getting it eventually.
  ThreeBays   ignore (1)   2020 Mar 28, 6:44pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Hircus says
We have about 2.8M deaths per yr in the USA. I think ~1.5M covid-19 deaths is quoted as a upper bound by many, so it's likely the realistic, actual # of deaths will be a lot less.

The Imperial College model for unmitigated epidemic was 2.2 Million, not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed. Up to 4.4 Million with collapsed health systems.

It's not going to be anywhere close to that with strict social distancing.
  ThreeBays   ignore (1)   2020 Mar 28, 6:45pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

How many billions do you think Trump's friends have made?
  ThreeBays   ignore (1)   2020 Mar 28, 9:30pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

CovfefeButDeadly says
Daily Wire, sometimes Breitbart and Fox, are the only reliable ones. Everything else is the same thing as the left such as mother jones, daily kos, now this, etc. it’s all bullshit, left and right. Can’t imagine why anyone would cite stuff like that as “news”.

They're the main sources cited on this site by it's owner and other morally compromised characters.
  ThreeBays   ignore (1)   2020 Mar 28, 9:33pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

CBOEtrader says
the deathrate is looking to be at .1%.

Where did he say that?
  ThreeBays   ignore (1)   2020 Mar 28, 9:38pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

mell says
marcus says

You have to look at cases per 1MM capita. The US is still far far from Italy.

Not for very long.

State of New York is already ahead of Italy.

NY has 2735 per million.
Italy has 1528 per million.
  ThreeBays   ignore (1)   2020 Mar 29, 12:52pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Patrick says
Days after beginning a large scale double blinded trial, the so called gold standard, France has now reached the conclusion chloroquine is recommended to treat corona.

That's great news.

One issue is there was no double blinded trial data here, and this article is just referencing Didier Raoult's badly fudged study.

Why are chloroquine studies only popping up from fairly shady sources?
  ThreeBays   ignore (1)   2020 Mar 29, 1:09pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

mell says
If the French and other European countries are using it now I doubt the studies aren't truthful.

The French have approved it for use for certain COVID-19 patients. Is there more information?

Fakemed, a group of scientists against fake news in health, lambasted the 68-year-old professor.

After Raoult released his latest findings on the internet over the weekend, Professor Francois Balloux of University College, London, tried to dampen talk that the drug could be a silver bullet.

"No, (this is) not 'huge' I'm afraid," he said on Twitter.

"This is an observational study (i.e. not controlled) following 80 patients with fairly mild symptoms. The majority of patients recover form #COVID19 infection, with or without #Hchloroquine and #Azithromycin treatment."

Statistician Tim Morris of the university's clinical trials unit was even more scathing.

"If hydroxychloroquine turns out to be useful," he tweeted, "it's a shame that this group will be praised as heroes and prophets instead of held to account for the misinformation and self-promotion they've been churning out at a critical time."

Dr Philippe Gautret, who was part of the team behind Raoult's latest findings, admitted that they only used the combination of drugs on "patients who had not been showing signs of being seriously ill after admission" to the hospital.
  ThreeBays   ignore (1)   2020 Mar 29, 1:19pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I'm hopeful this is real because that would save a lot of lives and get us back to normal, but I'm not finding any material that's very convincing that this is a silver bullet yet.

This French guy's study isn't controlled or large enough to really tell much.

Dr. Vladmir Zelenko's data is also pretty weird. It sounds like he did most of his protocol between Tuesday and Thursday last week, and by Monday he was already declaring victory and writing a letter to Trump. Weird A/F.
  ThreeBays   ignore (1)   2020 Mar 29, 2:07pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

socal2 says
This thread is VERY encouraging from one of the doctors treating hundreds of paitents with it with ZERO deaths so far..

That's just Dr. Vladimir Zelenko. Very fishy.
  ThreeBays   ignore (1)   2020 Mar 29, 6:11pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Fauci's current estimate is 100k to 200k.
  ThreeBays   ignore (1)   2020 Mar 29, 7:30pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag

The government's current estimate is apparently this.
81114 deaths. (40k to 160k range) through August.

They predicted 1.6 to 2.2 million fatalities if they didn't mitigate

I'm concerned that in Italy's numbers, they've peaked but haven't declined for a week. That's worrying in that it could mean the R value has been cut to around 1 but not significantly below 1 withe the current measures, and it may take even more draconian lockdowns and more time to decline.
  ThreeBays   ignore (1)   2020 Mar 30, 12:09am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Heraclitusstudent says

Why do you love to hate and attack by mentioning what he said? Only leftists are violent. Quoting the words Trump says and writes is, by definition, Fake News.
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