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The Myth of Mainland China Buyers in Vancouver


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2011 Jul 7, 10:15am   5,650 views  35 comments

by corntrollio   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

This is more than a week old so I'm surprised no one wrote about it. The Globe and Mail called BS on the claim of mainland Chinese buyers in Vancouver, pointing out that most of the buyers were people of Chinese origin already in Canada:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/daily-mix/china-not-driving-vancouver-house-prices/article2072241/

The Colliers report believed to be at the heart of the article – Marketshare First Quarter 2011 – doesn't actually quantify the number of buyers and goes out of its way to play down the effect they may be having.

"There seems to be more myths than facts about Mainland Chinese investing," Colliers president Greg Ashley wrote in the intro.

"This trend is certainly impacting single family housing values in Vancouver-West and Richmond. However, it is not the driving force behind all sales. A number of recent launches reported large numbers of Asian buyers -- yet a significant portion of these buyers are actually local residents not foreigners."

In the last six months, said the China Daily, Chinese buyers spent $200-million through Colliers' international property department with most of the money going toward Canada, the U.K. and Australia.

But all three destinations feature some very expensive real estate. Even if you divide that by three – $66,666,666 per market – that seems like a small piece of the action. The resale market in Vancouver accounted for $2.1-billion of activity – in May alone.

And there's no logical reason to split it equally – London's population is 7.5 million compared to Vancouver's 580,000. Australia is a whole country.

BMO Nesbitt burns recently said Vancouver appears primed for a correction, with the average house now costing "an astounding" 11.2 times a family’s average income – more than double the national average.

The report also mentions the Chinese, but not investors. Instead, it points out that many immigrants have decided to live in the city to take advantage of business relationships and the school system – quite a different scenario than investors buying up expensive properties and leaving them vacant.

I will remain skeptical based on this data, as I have been in other threads about this issue (http://patrick.net/?p=697896). It's funny how news orgs will run with a few quotes without figuring out the gist of the article. The China Daily appears to have oversold the Colliers report.

#housing

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15   thomas.wong1986   2011 Jul 11, 2:00pm  

GoldenPimp says

The Mainland Chinese ARE buying properties. They buy by funding money to local resident relatives, buying under their names. Most likely their children.

Forward to IRS and see how that ends! Might have to reopen Alcatraz Island to handle the prison term/deportation...

IRS could have a bonanza $$$$ in Cupertino/PA...

16   kentm   2011 Jul 12, 12:42am  

Good thing for them canada is another country then.

And technically that would be "元元元元"...

Funny, I'm getting the impression from some of you that the idea of buyers coming in from another country is akin to a conspiracy theory on par with atilla the Hun shot JFK... Though the substance of the replies amounts about "snort, snort, giggle...". Are any of you from Vancouver?

17   American in Japan   2011 Jul 12, 1:49am  

yuan (*4)?

18   FuckTheMainstreamMedia   2011 Jul 12, 2:47am  

kentm says

Good thing for them canada is another country then.

And technically that would be "元元元元"...

Funny, I'm getting the impression from some of you that the idea of buyers coming in from another country is akin to a conspiracy theory on par with atilla the Hun shot JFK... Though the substance of the replies amounts about "snort, snort, giggle...". Are any of you from Vancouver?

You do understand what the word "proof" means, correct?

19   kentm   2011 Jul 12, 3:27am  

dodgerfanjohn says

You do understand what the word "proof" means, correct?

go on...

American in Japan says

yuan (*4)?

just being silly, responding to thomas...

thomas.wong1986 says

IRS could have a bonanza $$$$ in Cupertino/PA...

21   corntrollio   2011 Jul 12, 4:55am  

Yes, investor visas are available in plenty of countries, and the amount is dependent on the country.

Of course, the investor visa story that kentm gives doesn't square with GoldenPimp's story at all.

I'm not sure what the source is of those links that kentm provided with respect to the numbers, but it's worth noting that those numbers are given by organizations seeking to provide services to people looking to emigrate to Canada. Upon Googling, you can see there are plenty of non-registered/non-accredited "consultants" that purport to help people emigrate to Canada on investor visas, and how some of them are less than ethical.

22   kentm   2011 Jul 12, 5:27am  

Yes, thats good point, those are business sites. Here's a link to the CAN census info, though I don't know how much I want to bother wading through it at the moment or how specific it'll get...

My info comes from friends who live and send kids to school in the area, and others who are journalists in the area who have researched the issue...

But at this point I should probably just say that I don't really care WHERE the money comes from, whether its from China or Mars - though of course knowing that would help to understand the driving forces... What I am interested in learning more about is the mentality that drives buying a home in area where it costs 3000/mo to rent but 8000+/mo to buy.

23   corntrollio   2011 Jul 12, 5:51am  

kentm says

What I am interested in learning more about is the mentality that drives buying a home in area where it costs 3000/mo to rent but 8000+/mo to buy.

Well, to some extent that happened in parts of the Bay Area during the recent boom in the U.S. Bubble mentality can drive things like this. It's usually not sustainable because the long-term costs of housing in an area should be correlated to income in that area. Outside money upsets this curve, as did VC/dotcom money, but it can't do so forever.

24   thomas.wong1986   2011 Jul 12, 6:04am  

corntrollio says

It's usually not sustainable because the long-term costs of housing in an area should be correlated to income in that area. Outside money upsets this curve, as did VC/dotcom money, but it can't do so forever.

And creates higher than normal cost of maintaining industries in the region. Which leads to bleeding jobs. Not good in the long run.

25   kentm   2011 Jul 20, 4:22pm  

Alright guys, whatever the reasoning or wherever the burden of proof - I'm not going to go through a long process to support the statement - the fact is that the increase in property values in Vancouver canada is being fueled by buyers coming in from china. having been here visiting for over a month I can state that with certainty. This is after conversations with friends who are journalists, friends who live in the areas, a couple of realtors and what I can see myself.

If anyone has any info to the opposite then I'd love to hear it, but if the comment is only going to be "that's unlikely" or some such then there's no need...

26   MisdemeanorRebel   2011 Jul 21, 2:49am  

It's the same crap down here is South Florida.

Yes, there are a few South American Robber Barons who buy some of the condos, but they are still not even 1-2% of all buyers.

You'd never know that from the way Realwhores and the Media talk about it though, you'd think that half of all condos sold went to rich Criollos.

27   corntrollio   2011 Jul 21, 4:40am  

thunderlips11 says

Yes, there are a few South American Robber Barons who buy some of the condos, but they are still not even 1-2% of all buyers.

A small number of buyers can result in an increase in property values because the real estate market is so illiquid and transactions happen on the margins, but that also means the market can drop rapidly too.

"I can state that with certainty."

Yeah, everyone says that. I heard the same thing in San Francisco -- blah blah, Chinese and Europeans are buying these condos. Fast forward 4 years later, and it's mostly Americans being foreclosed on. All this has happened before. All this will happen again.

28   kentm   2011 Jul 22, 12:22am  

I live in SF and I never had the impression ever that the market there or in most evey other US area was driven by foreign input. I think it was an accepted fact that cheap and shoddy loans were the driving force behind mostly local buyers and investors. Vancouver is a very different thing.

Why are you so seemingly resistant to the idea? Do you own property in Vancouver?

And anyway, if rich foreigners did purchase property in SF they're not likely to show up in the foreclosure stats, can you find some other metric to base your 'gut feeling' on?

29   corntrollio   2011 Jul 22, 2:00am  

kentm says

I live in SF and I never had the impression ever that the market there or in most evey other US area was driven by foreign input.

The market is not *in fact* driven by foreign input, but people made the same claims about San Francisco with respect to foreign money during the boom here, as they are now making about Vancouver. I'm not saying foreigner buyers *did* purchase here, but rather that everyone and their mother claimed that foreign buyers purchased here. Search "foreign buyer" or "rich foreigner" on a site like SocketSite -- here is just a sample, and if you look closely at 2007 threads, you will probably find more:

Here's a whole thread about it:

Considering that SF was already much cheaper than London, Hong Kong, Singapore, Tokyo, Shanghai and Beijing, and now the dollar has taken a nosedive, executives in these places, especially from Asia, can buy prime condos in SF for less than half what they would pay at home.

Here's someone making a prediction about 2008 in 2007:

2008: Prices start to fall in January in some established neighborhoods. The dollar also continues its plunge. Developers start exclusively advertising their properties in Europe and Asia (as has happened with many developments in NYC). Europeans and Asians flood the market with cash because "we can buy seven times as much property here as we can in . Also, this is one of the few American cities that we love to visit, because of the beauty, weather, and political views."

Another prediction:

Sales will stagnate and prices in all areas begin to fall slightly. Condo developments, as well as realty firms dealing in desirable neighborhoods will begin heavily advertising in Europe and Asia. Europeans and Asians will see the prices, and in conjunction with the plummeting dollar, see places that are pennies on the dollar to vacation places in their areas. The market will begin to flood with euros (and other currencies) which will stop price declines in all but the least desirable areas.

In two years, prices in SF will be significantly higher than SM and SC counties (which are about the same as SF now) because those counties don't have the same international appeal that SF does. SF will become more and more a place for rich young dual incomers, retired seniors, and foreign tourists looking for a vacation home.

From the same thread:

Look at ORH/Infinity already - something like 25% foreigners with very little advertising in those places. Toss some adveritising in Sky Mall about places in SF going for less than a million euros and phones will begin to ring. Doesn't have to be that many - the market in SF is so small that even 300 Europeans looking to buy would make a huge impact.

Why? Because SF is a bargain -- it's all the same justifications:

Yes San Francisco is a bargain compared with many places in the world. And yes there are foreign investors who buy here because prices per square foot are cheap and the exchange rates make it even more desirable.

Throw in Warren Buffett and you have a thesis:

Buffet and Gates saw this coming and dumped dollars for Euros almost two years ago. I think with the dollar continuing to fall, it makes real estate an ever safer investment and I would imagine foreign investors will enter the California market like they did in the early 90's after the last downturn.

More predictions, including who's moving out:

What is interesting is who is moving in, and who is moving out. I believe many with real wealth are leaving the Bay Area while those coming in are foreign born moving here to create wealth.

It's affordable!:

There are also plenty of foreign buyers who can afford to have 2nd homes in cities like SF or NY given the weakness of the US dollar compared to most foreign currencies. I think the prices here are ridiculous, but also doubt they'll drop much, if at all, from where they are now. This is a lovely area to live in, and there is just too much demand for housing, and interest rates are still incredibly low.

What's hilarious is that people were still insisting this in 2009 as the market kept dropping and dropping:

One Rincon Hill is a "luxury" condo tower -- you can see it when approaching the Bay Bridge:

My colleague lives in One Rincon Hill. As a condo owner and a resident, he was invited to the grand opening cocktail party. He was so shocked to see most of the guests are Chinese. I asked him if they are Chinese living in US(Chinese American). He said that they are all from Taiwan, Hongkong, and China and spoke no English at all. (My colleague is Chinese American and speaks Chinese as well). According to my colleague, these Chinese people are renting out their units.

Also on the same thread:

I think the point is that its quite possible that whatever market currently exists for luxury condos in downtown SF, that its primarily a speculative one driven by foreign buyers with cash on hand, and not by any fundamental homeownership demand.

Infinity is also a "luxury" condo tower -- two, actually:

As for foreign buyers, On my floor there are residents from Shanghai, France, and Iran who never seem to be here. Three other neighbors, I've never seen at all.

Still churning about "decoupling":

Foreign buyers, particularly Chinese, will be unaffected by the economy in the United States and will continue to want to own property here.

Meanwhile, the foreclosures in these overpriced "luxury" condo buildings keep increasing... People still insist this now with respect to Peninsula housing markets, even though statistics show that a huge percentages of Asians were here before 1990 and certainly before 2000.

30   thomas.wong1986   2011 Jul 22, 6:22am  

They seemed to left out the Japanese buyers...
No wait, they got burned losing billions.. yes billions in RE.

31   bubblesitter   2011 Jul 22, 6:58am  

thomas.wong1986 says

losing billions..

So, after the Chinese and Indians are done loosing theirs who is next?

32   kentm   2011 Jul 24, 2:13am  

Contrillo, I agree the sf market wasn't foreign driven.

Vancouver on the other hand seems to be very much so. So now then my concern is kind of with 'where' the money comes from because then my question is "IS it indeed different this time?", is the investment going to stop and if so. When?

33   B.A.C.A.H.   2011 Jul 24, 3:21am  

Of course SF isn't. Wealthy foreigners covet the "public" school elite API scores in The Fortresses along the west coast. SF doesn't offer that.

34   thomas.wong1986   2011 Jul 24, 6:44pm  

kentm says

So now then my concern is kind of with 'where' the money comes from because then my question is "IS it indeed different this time?", is the investment going to stop and if so. When?

End of the day, many may well be just a bunch of common criminals. If someone is moving over $5,000 USD out of China, there is something funny going on.

Canada to extradite China's most wanted fugitive.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/asia/la-fg-china-red-mansion-20110723,0,5939595.story?track=rss

Reporting from Beijing— He was an illiterate peasant who is said to have built a multibillion-dollar smuggling empire with his wits and a gift for cultivating powerful officials at a pleasure palace he called the Red Mansion.

When the central government finally caught up to him, he narrowly escaped and made his way to Canada.

But Thursday a federal judge cleared the way for Lai Changxing, after more than a decade in Canadian courts appealing for asylum, to be extradited to China, where he'll face criminal charges.

The Chinese government had pressed Canada for years to return Lai, who has been regarded as China's most wanted fugitive.

But on a visit to China this week, Canadian Foreign Minister John Baird echoed the sentiments of some conservative lawmakers who favored deporting Lai. Baird said neither country had time for "white-collar fraudsters."

As of the end of last year, China has said, there were about 600 suspects on the lam overseas wanted by Beijing for serious economic crimes. None was more legendary than Lai, who parlayed his connections in the southern coastal city of Xiamen into a $6.4-billion operation smuggling cigarettes, automobiles and fuel.

35   corntrollio   2011 Jul 25, 5:49am  

kentm says

Contrillo, I agree the sf market wasn't foreign driven.

Vancouver on the other hand seems to be very much so.

Based on what? A few realtors saying so with little statistical support and inconsistent justifications? That's what happened in SF too.

What you're describing is looking at SF in hindsight and seeing that there weren't that many foreigners after all despite the huge claims and comparing it to the huge claims currently made for Vancouver. I gave you the claims about SF in 2007 -- contemporaneous claims. The claims turned out not to be true; why are these claims about Vancouver more likely to be true?

The right question is "is it indeed different this time?" but not in the way you're asking. The real question is whether the claims are true. Statistics say no and indicate a bubble.

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