patrick.net

schmitz_kris says

How do you think one makes money in financial markets? You MUST prognosticate accurately. Your treat is profit and/or an avoidance of a loss.

I think you missed the point. Saying I told you so isn't prognosticating...

tatupu70 says

Yes, you can say I told you so even BEFORE you are right.

Implication that we're not in an official double dip, or that prices aren't falling?

klarek says

tatupu70 says

Yes, you can say I told you so even BEFORE you are right.

Implication that we’re not in an official double dip, or that prices aren’t falling?

I'd just have thought that you'd wait until prices actually fall below the earlier minimum...

tatupu70 says

I’d just have thought that you’d wait until prices actually fall below the earlier minimum…

Off by 0.01 according to Case-Shiller, below previous false bottom by Core Logic's measures. But we sure don't want to be splitting hairs, or would we?

klarek says

tatupu70 says

I’d just have thought that you’d wait until prices actually fall below the earlier minimum…

Off by 0.01 according to Case-Shiller, below previous false bottom by Core Logic’s measures. But we sure don’t want to be splitting hairs, or would we?

Klarek,

Hold your guns for 0.01 decline on the next CS report.

Shockingly, I didn't see this posted anywhere...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110428/bs_nm/us_usa_economy_housing1_1

I know, I know. Most of these sales won't make it to closing, right?

"In other evidence that housing market woes may be settling, home builder Pulte Group Inc (PHM.N) reported a smaller-than-expected quarterly loss. The nation's second largest home builder said order cancellations had fallen and that it did not need to offer more incentives to lure customers"

Oops. I guess they are making it to closing.

tatupu70 says

“In other evidence that housing market woes may be settling, home builder Pulte Group Inc (PHM.N) reported a smaller-than-expected quarterly loss. The nation’s second largest home builder said order cancellations had fallen and that it did not need to offer more incentives to lure customers”

Oops. I guess they are making it to closing.

That's quite a high bar there, lower losses than expected. I wonder which other builders are having less losses than were expected. I also wonder how new home sales in general compare to the past.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/search/label/New%20Home%20Sales

Wow, lowest level ever.

tatupu70 says

Shockingly, I didn’t see this posted anywhere…
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110428/bs_nm/us_usa_economy_housing1_1
I know, I know. Most of these sales won’t make it to closing, right?
“In other evidence that housing market woes may be settling, home builder Pulte Group Inc (PHM.N) reported a smaller-than-expected quarterly loss. The nation’s second largest home builder said order cancellations had fallen and that it did not need to offer more incentives to lure customers”
Oops. I guess they are making it to closing.

Tatupu - pending home sales can be "up" and prices can fall at the same time.

The title of this thread is that "prices are falling" - which they are.

joshuatrio says

Tatupu - pending home sales can be “up” and prices can fall at the same time.

Typically falling prices will increase demand, hence sales increases. Always been an inverse correlation between the two. But when you shake up the demand side, sales can fall while prices are falling as well, as we've seen during the past eight months. That's the impact of the tax credit.

tatupu70 says

Shockingly, I didn’t see this posted anywhere…

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110428/bs_nm/us_usa_economy_housing1_1

LOL. Home sales always pick up after the winter.

The referred to NAR pending home sales index is down 11.5% from last March, so sales volumes are down from a year ago.

MarkInSF says

tatupu70 says

Shockingly, I didn’t see this posted anywhere…
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110428/bs_nm/us_usa_economy_housing1_1

LOL. Home sales always pick up after the winter.
The referred to NAR pending home sales index is down 11.5% from last March, so sales volumes are down from a year ago.

Agreed, but last March was a good month--right before the end of the tax credit.

cooljohn says

talks like he is some kind insider

Of course he is an insider, running the day to day in and outs of a personal bankruptcy company; buying distressed properties and renting them out to working class folks who need a place to live. Exploitation on the way out, exploitation on the way in, and exploitation in between; and boasting about it throughout.

He could be a pizza delivery boy during the daytime.
Then become a lawyer, a stock analyst and a rich investor on the internet in the evening.

Geico is more like it. Both animals are annoying.

.."he's a transpondster!!!" - Rachael Green

I guess bankruptcy lawyers make great finance/econ experts.

Sybrib, I wish I could have the 30 seconds back I spent reading that post.

gameisrigged says

Sybrib, I wish I could have the 30 seconds back I spent reading that post.

I'll second that. LOL

sybrib says

More collapsing prices, more misery, more distressed homes, more misery, more distressed families, more misery, more bankruptcy clients (and fees) for his firm

The vast majority of homeowners, like myself, bought long ago. Prices are mearly going back to long term sustainable levels. The distressed home owners mearly experiences the 'charlie sheen effect' of soberity. All the hupla they believed why prices of homes were sustainable is vanishing.
Soberity is a bitch!

klarek says

He’s abandoned the housing market forum in order to make political arguments in Misc. He’ll probably resurface if we have a month of increasing prices.

He'll be abandoning Misc. soon as well because his political views are in a down market (just like his housing views). Everybody picks on the Duck. The Duck just can't win. No matter where he goes, it's open season on daffy Ducks.

RayAmerica says

it’s open season on daffy Ducks.

Is it an early or delayed season? :)