patrick.net

This may be the quickest turn around on a prediction as Signature was shuttered the very next day:
https://patrick.net/post/1378750/2023-03-10-silicon-valley-bank-goes-under-won-t?start=116#comment-1932586

NuttBoxer says

This may be the quickest turn around on a prediction as Signature was shuttered the very next day:
https://patrick.net/post/1378750/2023-03-10-silicon-valley-bank-goes-under-won-t?start=116#comment-1932586

That post predicts 100pt slash by December. Didn't happen yet.

The thread predicted SVB was only the first to go down. Signature didn't even last the weekend, and I see two more that may not last the week.

Are you intentionally attempt to misconstrue my comment above?

The one comment you latched on to, rather than look at the big picture of the thread(seems to be a habit with you, avoiding the big picture), was just made, so a hundred point rate reduction would be for this December, nine months away.

What the fuck man!?

NuttBoxer says

The thread predicted SVB was only the first to go down. Signature didn't even last the weekend, and I see two more that may not last the week.

Are you intentionally attempt to misconstrue my comment above?

Is that directed at me? All I did is I read the post and the article linked in it. In the article the only place where Signature is mentioned is to state the fact that it is "plunging". Here it is, in its entirety: "Meanwhile, shares of Wall Street banking giants are falling, and regional lenders like First Republic, Signature Bank and PacWest are also plunging." Does it qualify as a prediction? Not in my book.

And then the prediction comes:

"Within the next couple of months, as the contagion brews up this channel — up to high yield, leveraged loans, across the entire ecosystem — that's when the Feds gonna have to bring out the other firehose and cut rates, probably within six to nine months," McDonald said.

So it looks like one of us can't read. Could be me. But it's not intentional for sure. More like disability.

"CCCP will collapse now! - No, CCCP strong, I'll collapse in 10!"

https://patrick.net/post/1378887/2023-03-24-russia-is-going-to-break-apart-after?start=1#comment-1936179

@Eric%20Holder So the main prediction in the thread came true in 24 hours. Any comments not in the OP are not focus, seems like I shouldn't have to tell you that.

But, the comment you latched onto, and the article it references was just written, so the prediction is well within the time limit which would expire start of next winter. Meaning, you can't call it yet. I think you just need to read more carefully.

My prediction ...

Banking crisis will get a LOT worse. Why? Because Biden Says "Banks In Pretty Good Shape" As Small Banks See Biggest Deposit Outflow On Record
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/over-110-billion-deposits-dumped-small-banks-saw-biggest-weekly-outflow-ever-svb-collapsed

The Fed just released its weekly commercial bank data dump showing deposit inflows/outflows.

Two things to note:

1) This is for the week up to 3/15/23 (which includes the SVB collapse but nothing more)

2) 'Large Banks' includes the top 25 banks (which means SVB was among that group, hence, we get no indication of SVB rotation flows)

The overall data shows that domestic commercial banks saw over $98 billion in deposit outflows (seasonally-adjusted) that week to just over $17.5 trillion (8th straight week of aggregate outflows).

I'm seeing a rise in 6.0 mag earthquakes around the ring of fire from SEA to Chile. Maybe I'll get my prediction after all!

RWSGFY says

"CCCP will collapse now! - No, CCCP strong, I'll collapse in 10!"

https://patrick.net/post/1378887/2023-03-24-russia-is-going-to-break-apart-after?start=1#comment-1936179

I "predict" the CCCP will collapse on December 26, 1991.

What prize do I get?

I'm tired of your willful dishonesty.

Here, I will make a serious prediction, which I hope I'm wrong about.

The war between Ukraine and Russia will continue to AT LEAST the end of 2024. This war will not end until the next presidency, at minimum. I would not be surprised to see it last for 10 years, although I doubt it will last that long.

The entire Ukrainian male population of fighting age will be mostly wiped out, and Eastern Ukraine will be taken over by Russia, Western Ukraine may break up.

I also predict that, possibly (25% chance I give it) that NATO will break up at the end of this. It depends on how badly Europe is harmed by a lack of energy exports from Russia. This is an unknown, because Russia ships energy to China, and China then sells it to Europe. So much for environmentalism...

I also predict that Zelenskyy will retire from the world stage, and retire into obscurity. Where he goes, well, I doubt it will be Israel because it's too obvious.

I predict that the 2024 election will be the most divisive of the last 100 years. This is literally the showdown between Nationalism and Golobohomo. There is much money to be made on side bets; namely, is Ukraine/WW3 still to be pushed, or is a "Fuck the rest of the world and Globohomo," and put America first going to be the agenda?

richwicks says

Here, I will make a serious prediction, which I hope I'm wrong about.

The war between Ukraine and Russia will continue to AT LEAST the end of 2024. This war will not end until the next presidency, at minimum. I would not be surprised to see it last for 10 years, although I doubt it will last that long.

The entire Ukrainian male population of fighting age will be mostly wiped out, and Eastern Ukraine will be taken over by Russia, Western Ukraine may break up.

I also predict that, possibly (25% chance I give it) that NATO will break up at the end of this. It depends on how badly Europe is harmed by a lack of energy exports from Russia. This is an unknown, because Russia ships energy to China, and China then sells it to Europe. So much for environmentalism...

I also predict that Zelenskyy will retire from the world stage, and retire into obscurity. Where he goes, well, I doubt it will be Israel because it's too obvious.

Most Ukrainian chicks are relatively hot. If Ukraine is decimated, this is an opportunity to snag high quality Eastern European Ass to relive the severe M/F ratio.

EDIT: This could be the potentially the biggest bonanza for spergs since the collapse of the USSR. Brilliant and hot Ukes desperate for a 2-year sex slavery role to get a green card. Or don't they do this anymore?

EDIT2: I knew someone in the 90's who tried to do the mail-order Russian brides. My post was more in sarcasm than really acknowledging this as a legitimate option.

stereotomy says

I predict that the 2024 election will be the most divisive of the last 100 years. This is literally the showdown between Nationalism and Golobohomo. There is much money to be made on side bets; namely, is Ukraine/WW3 still to be pushed, or is a "Fuck the rest of the world and Globohomo," and put America first going to be the agenda?

I hope you are correct, but I do not expect the RNC to allow anybody other than a Neocunt to run. The primary will be stolen by the RNC, just as Hillary Cliton stole it from Bernie Sanders in 2016.

I'm not a Sander's fan, but I know he won the primary, not Cliton.

It will be another orderly, boring election, in which another fucking Neocunt puppet will be installed.

stereotomy says

I predict that the 2024 election will be the most divisive of the last 100 years. This is literally the showdown between Nationalism and Golobohomo. There is much money to be made on side bets; namely, is Ukraine/WW3 still to be pushed, or is a "Fuck the rest of the world and Globohomo," and put America first going to be the agenda?

If we get that far(unlikely we won't have collapse first), the most important and fastest growing segment will eschew both for the independence of the individual. Fuck the NWO, and fuck the nationalists. States rights over both, and individual rights over all. Time to take back what we lost under our bloodiest dictator, Lincoln.

richwicks says

It will be another orderly, boring election

Oh, it won't be boring. Blatant election fraud will take place in key districts.

richwicks says

The logistics are pretty clear. Ukraine is drastically outnumbered, and even if the kill ratio was 1:1, Russia would win.

If the EU gets involved, I think it will be nuclear war. NATO would have to have a draft, and start one yesterday to do it.

Quoted for posterity.

stereotomy says

Most Ukrainian chicks are relatively hot. If Ukraine is decimated, this is an opportunity to snag high quality Eastern European Ass to relive the severe M/F ratio.

This is a legitimate problem for both countries. If the dudes are maimed or dead you can't make babies. Women like fucking as much as men. Their entire cultures are fucked as the women will move to fuck dudes that aren't dead. So not are you only losing working male demographics, you'll lose female demographics because there are no men.

This is a senseless war on both sides. If this drags on both will fail miserably. I think that's the plan of the west, but at some point the two need to come to the realization they're pawns in a game of chess.

Problem is, and I'm not joking, I think they're actively drunk fighting this war. None of this makes any sense even as a person that drinks. NATO was never going to attack Russia. 50 nukes could be lobbed on Russia in 60 minutes from multiple countries. Distance doesn't matter. Russia wants the land because 90% of theirs sucks. Land access to Crimea. This will go down as dumber than Iraq or Afghanistan.

HeadSet says

richwicks says

It will be another orderly, boring election

Oh, it won't be boring. Blatant election fraud will take place in key districts.

It will be done in the primary. Trump won't be allowed to run. Hope I'm wrong, but I bet I'm not. I was genuinely surprised that Trump was allowed to win the primary in 2016 - remember when there were calls to invalidate it? The Democrats were calling to invalidate it but the DNC also thought he would be easy to beat - but people are so goddamned sick of the status quo, he managed to win, and I think there was MASSIVE ballot fraud then too. Nobody but a Democrat would vote for Hillary Clinton, she's as despised by non Democrats as George W. Bush is with non Republicans.

Trump actually won over some fence sitters, and quite a few Democrats as well.

I predict that Jamie Foxx when he finally makes public appearances will seem completely fine, with absolutely no ill health effects.

I suspect he was never ill, and all of this was to discredit people claiming the vax is dangerous. He is an actor after all.

stereotomy says

Most Ukrainian chicks are relatively hot. If Ukraine is decimated, this is an opportunity to snag high quality Eastern European Ass to relive the severe M/F ratio.

Divorce Raep of Spergs in 2-3 years after they arrive.

Tenpoundbass says

The Ukraine thing will be finished before the 2024 election. Russia will occupy all of Ukraine and Zelenski will be either a Siberian prisoner or dead.

WookieMan says

This will go down as dumber than Iraq or Afghanistan.

Yep, Pukin is a stupid cunt.

A very bold one: https://medium.com/@dylan_combellick/the-ukrainian-offensive-will-be-easy-af13d6a9e6d9

Eric Holder says

A very bold one: https://medium.com/dylan_combellick/the-ukrainian-offensive-will-be-easy-af13d6a9e6d9

Can't read it, but I can read enough of it to know the author thinks Ukraine will be victorious. I know that 's wrong.

I expect Ukraine to be divided up into East and West Ukraine, West Ukraine will be deeply in debt to the IMF. I'm not even certain it will survive as a country. Crimea will remain Russian, I'm not certain to what extent Western Ukraine will be Russian - anything with resources most likely.

The war might go on for many years. I'd bet at least 3 more. It may never really end, but end up in a low key conflict that just drags on where there is little if any fighting, but there is clear hostility.

I think the pattern I've noticed is that when the US claims that "victory is imminent" is never is and it's the exact opposite. Remember when the US claimed "Mission Accomplished" in Iraq? Then it went on to 2011, and then it was staffed by mercenaries? When the US leaves, they just leave - like Libya We won't even hear about it

Eventually the "news" media will just stop talking about Ukraine except sporadically, maybe not at all. They never mention Yemen or Somalia. Do they talk about Syria?

https://search.brave.com/news?q=syria&source=web

They don't even talk about the war. This means its still going on, although the US isn't very active there, and is protecting assets. Whatever the goals were, have largely been achieved or abandoned. We'll see.

richwicks says

I expect Ukraine to be divided up into East and West Ukraine, West Ukraine will be deeply in debt to the IMF. I'm not even certain it will survive as a country. Crimea will remain Russian, I'm not certain to what extent Western Ukraine will be Russian - anything with resources most likely.

The area we call Ukraine has been dominated by other countries since time immemorial.
https://www.dailymotion.com/embed/video/x22bv4m

Girkin's predictions:

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1672484785397088258

Another juicy one:

The_Deplorable says

Ukraine is finished. The counteroffensive failed and Ukraine's losses are so high, they don't have an army anymore to keep fighting.

RWSGFY says

Girkin's predictions:

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1672484785397088258

Didn't Pickle end up being anti-Putin because he felt the DPR wasn't being supported enough?

So much shit these days, hard to remember everything.

RWSGFY says

Girkin's predictions:

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1672484785397088258

@RWSGFY - how did that work out?

AmericanKulak says

Didn't Pickle end up being anti-Putin because he felt the DPR wasn't being supported enough?

So much shit these days, hard to remember everything.

I read an interesting piece on Prigozhin:

https://ryandawson.substack.com/p/coup-or-psyop-neither

His viewpoint is that Prigozhin is just a moron that believes western propaganda and thinks that Prigozhin has actually no military experience. He's just a dumb thug. He owns Wagner, but doesn't control it. He's just a businessman, but I have no idea. Basically, Prigozhin actually believes Russia is losing the war.

If Russia loses this conflict, I'm going to have to do some real thinking about how I was deceived because at this point, I'm totally convinced there is no way Russia can lose short of NATO actually going to war with Russia, and even THEN, I don't think Russia will lose.

I have a prediction on Prigozhin:

He will be murdered in some novel, weird way, and the US security agencies (i.e. "western media") will blame Putin after Putin let him go, and exiled him to Belarus. It will be a while from now, when he's been largely forgotten.

RWSGFY says

It won't happen. The US government directly intervenes in the stockmarket to prevent it from collapsing. WHEN it collapses, it won't collapse 40%, it will collapse 100%.

We are not in a free market at all. This is centralized control, and that will in time, and when it fails, it will be catastrophic.

40% is about what happened in '08. Government couldn't do shit about it. Regardless of attempts to control, all markets are still ruled by the free market. It's natural law, ordained by God. Example, even fucking North Korea has black markets...

NuttBoxer says

40% is about what happened in '08. Government couldn't do shit about it.

True.

https://patrick.net/post/1379822/2023-07-23-joe-biden-to-step-down-due-to-medical

Conservative commentator Ian Miles Cheong had this prediction for SBF:

“SBF is going to walk. Just watch.”

RWSGFY says

Conservative commentator Ian Miles Cheong had this prediction for SBF:

“SBF is going to walk. Just watch.”

He will get some misdemeanors and have to serve community service or some crap like that. For appearances sake.

Trollhole says

RWSGFY says

Conservative commentator Ian Miles Cheong had this prediction for SBF:

“SBF is going to walk. Just watch.”

He will get some misdemeanors and have to serve community service or some crap like that. For appearances sake.

Juicy.