7
0

Rin's last dance for 2022


 invite response                
2022 May 5, 2:29pm   4,437 views  40 comments

by Rin   ➕follow (8)   💰tip   ignore  

Ok, the Bitcoin trade is officially over.

https://patrick.net/post/1344089?offset=160#comment-1838336

[ the entire text is the first posting ]

Now, given the fact that the blue chips, like Proctor & Gamble, are mainly overpriced so that dividend reinvestment (DRIP) is basically overpaying for those shares, it's better to simply bank whatever P&G gives you every quarter, henceforth, until the next market correction.

But sure, I have my Rio Tinto, Altria, & British-American Tobacco on DRIP mode, as they're properly priced with high dividends, so any market correction will result in a huge no of reinvested shares.

Ok, so the last dance is Carl Icahn Enterprises, IEP. IEP is basically a high dividend stock, 15+%, but with poor fundamentals. In other words, if anything happens to Carl's health (he's in his 80s) or one or more of his deals go south, the company may cut dividends and see its price go into the toilet. And his heir apparent is his son, which doesn't give me much confidence ... just look at George W Bush or any other organization where nepotism is the way of the land.



So with this stock, the idea is to use those P&G dividends to mastermind the trade. In other words, use guaranteed dividend income to pay for a risky trade. And in this case, given the fact that 1) Icahn could fail with its stock pricing plunging or 2) the market could tank which could easily take IEP down with it, one should pay for a LEAP put option on the downside and then, sell (re-claiming half the value) at the mid-term, & re-purchase that put, for a latter expiration time to maintain a level of insurance while also adapting the pricing for the present stock ticker for IEP. So far, I'm predicting that the ~15% dividend would cost some 5-7% per annum in terms of the downside protection which nets one a 7-10% yield on their investment.

« First        Comments 18 - 40 of 40        Search these comments

18   Rin   2022 Jun 8, 3:38pm  

zzyzzx says

Shares of tobacco company Altria Group took a dive Wednesday after Morgan Stanley downgraded the company to underweight and lowered its price target from $54 to $50.


Here's the thing w/ companies like Altria, When its price falls, you make up the difference in the dividend checks which buys more shares than earlier during the dip.

In contrast, companies like Facebook, once the Wall Street "darling shine" wears off, gives nothing once its price falls.
19   theoakman   2022 Jun 9, 5:03am  

That's the thing that "investors" can't grapple with. Does anyone think I care about a $5 drop to $50? I bought at $16, 20, 30, 40 for the past 15 years. I get paid to hold...I don't even look at the price on my dividend portfolio.
20   Booger   2022 Jun 22, 4:38pm  

Altria $41.50/sh -4.20 (-9.19%) At close: 4:03PM EDT
21   1337irr   2022 Jun 22, 4:49pm  

theoakman says

That's the thing that "investors" can't grapple with. Does anyone think I care about a $5 drop to $50? I bought at $16, 20, 30, 40 for the past 15 years. I get paid to hold...I don't even look at the price on my dividend portfolio.

It's all about AZZ!
22   theoakman   2022 Jun 22, 4:52pm  

Yes, the US government has a hard on for JUUL. The same thing happened 2 years ago when they went on their JUUL rampage. Altria fell, and went back up because they make their money. Will they remove JUUL off the market? Seems like shaky ground given that they are leaving all the other E-cigs. My guess, they want their palms greased, and then it's business as usual up to 50 again. What I find funny is that people freaked out about buying Treasury Inflation Protected Securities at 7%. You have a company that has paid that for decades. Altria is a hold for life unless you think people will stop abusing nicotine.
23   Rin   2022 Jun 22, 6:16pm  

theoakman says

You have a company that has paid that for decades. Altria is a hold for life unless you think people will stop abusing nicotine.


Here's the thing, companies like Altria & British-American Tobacco are old school value stocks.

In other words, they don't make cap gains based upon the latest buzz about the "Metaverse" or "Green Future". Instead, they pay their investors actual dividends based upon sales of their products.

If you want to play the cap gains "market timing" strategy, here's my link on that ...

https://patrick.net/post/1345315/2022-05-25-rin-has-recognized-that-the-nasdaq-is#last
24   KgK one   2022 Jun 22, 8:54pm  

Boughy some more mo at lower price and bought nly.

As long as divident comes, it's worth it
25   just_passing_through   2022 Jun 22, 10:02pm  

theoakman says

Yes, the US government has a hard on for JUUL.


The maniac in chief is trying to ban tobacco with addictive levels of nicotine as well - the 2nd part of the news! lol

I read about it before work and am considering perhaps a buying opportunity as well. Thinking the latter part might drive a leg down too even if ultimately unsuccessful not sure.

Then again, CBDC... Dance ya monkeys dance!
26   KgK one   2022 Jul 6, 7:11pm  

They want to get people on weed n out of tobacco?
27   Eman   2022 Jul 18, 2:07pm  

Rin,

Can you share your latest take on the market? Piper Sandler stated the market breadth continues to deteriorate. 3,500 PT to the downside is still valid at the moment.

Closed 15 IEP Dec puts that I sold for $2.8k profit. Will wait for a better entry to get a higher premium. Thanks for giving the range/PT on this stock.
28   Eman   2022 Jul 18, 2:10pm  

Rin,

Looks like MO stock price has stabilized between $41-$42. Do you think the bad news has priced in?
29   Rin   2022 Jul 18, 3:53pm  

Eman says

Looks like MO stock price has stabilized between $41-$42. Do you think the bad news has priced in?


Here's the question, are you trading MO or trying to use the dollar cost averaging (with dividend reinvestment) for a basic, perma-dividend type of stock?

The 200 EMA is some $48+, which in effect, is a $6 gap that'll be earned within 2 years of simply holding the stock. All and all, given all the bad news, MO's held up very well.

Right now, the major indexes: Nasdaq, S&P500, & Dow30 are all experiencing a bear market markup as they trade below the 200 EMA but in what looks like a bearish flag but here's the difference, MO is not Amazon (nor a low dividend Dow stock like United Healthcare Group), its value is distributed to its shareholders and thus, it's got an automated bottom, even if the other 3 indexes fall and Altria gets caught in a bear market sell off along with them thanks to a lot of algorithmic trading.

For me, the greater it falls, like let's say $42 to $36, that's essentially adding 25% more shares per quarter (since we know that the 200 EMA is a eventual target when the bear recedes) than before.
30   KgK one   2022 Sep 27, 6:10am  

Rin , good time to buy stocks?

Besides mo n nly , any other. Most ppl expect snp to go 3200 -3400 so wait till then?
31   KgK one   2022 Sep 29, 5:59pm  

Rin is MIA , guessing he is boinking hoes in Montreal. Or he has fallen for his Doll n gave up external influence.
32   Rin   2022 Sep 29, 6:53pm  

Folks, why is anyone focusing on US equities, whether it's a bear market rally or a sell off, at this time?

The big trade is the short on the EUR/USD currency pair.

Every pull up on this pair is resulting in a major sell off, afterwards. And it's consistent. There's never been a sustained rally on the EUR since this past spring.
33   Rin   2022 Sep 29, 6:54pm  

KgK one says

Or he has fallen for his Doll n gave up external influence.


That's also going on.
34   KgK one   2022 Sep 29, 7:58pm  

Rin says

Folks, why is anyone focusing on US equities, whether it's a bear market rally or a sell off, at this time?

The big trade is the short on the EUR/USD currency pair.

Every pull up on this pair is resulting in a major sell off, afterwards. And it's consistent. There's never been a sustained rally on the EUR since this past spring.


How do you short eur/ usd pair? Need forex acct? Or is there ticker for it?

What about BOND ticker it's been down a lot 110 to 90 good to buy or more to fall ?
35   mell   2022 Sep 29, 8:22pm  

Rin says

Folks, why is anyone focusing on US equities, whether it's a bear market rally or a sell off, at this time?

The big trade is the short on the EUR/USD currency pair.

Every pull up on this pair is resulting in a major sell off, afterwards. And it's consistent. There's never been a sustained rally on the EUR since this past spring.

Agreed, I think the EUR can go as low as .85-.90, even .80 cents
36   Rin   2023 Feb 17, 8:01pm  

We're in a full bear market but yet, MO rebounds to $48 as of this Feb. That's called a defensive stock.

In other worlds, don't worry about the cap gains play. Those are for the NVDIAs and Facebooks out there.
37   Eman   2023 Feb 17, 8:47pm  

Rin says


We're in a full bear market but yet, MO rebounds to $48 as of this Feb. That's called a defensive stock.

In other worlds, don't worry about the cap gains play. Those are for the NVDIAs and Facebooks out there.

Rin, didn’t SPX have a golden cross recently? From a history perspective, 17 out 18 times, the bear market is behind us?

Great play on dividend stocks by the way.
38   Rin   2023 Feb 17, 10:16pm  

Take a look at this macroeconomic pic ...



That's the S&P500 vs the Fed Rate.

Now, in prior bear markets, think 2001-2002 & 2008-2009, the Fed lowered the rate significantly, to stave the sell off and send the bears home.

Today, we're still not there. When the Fed goes dovish on rate increases, then it's time to get back in.
39   KgK one   2023 Dec 4, 12:53pm  

Reits have taken hit. Any good ones to get into. They have ridiculous dividend but possibility of default also
40   AD   2023 Dec 4, 1:29pm  

KgK one says

Reits have taken hit.


this looks like a decent one

Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund Admiral Shares

.

Please register to comment:

api   best comments   contact   latest images   memes   one year ago   random   suggestions