patrick.net

DD214 says

Why Blackstone's $69B Property Fund Is Signaling Pain Ahead For Real Estate

Blackstone is at $82 and is down 42% from its all time and 52 week high. Looks like it has more room to drop to early 2020 levels which is around $62 a share.

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ad says

Blackstone is at $82 and is down 42% from its all time and 52 week high.

Is that all? Sheesh.

B.A.C.A.H. says

Blackstone is at $82 and is down 42% from its all time and 52 week high.

Is that all? Sheesh.

I checked MSN Finance, and Wall Street analysts forecast $100 in 12 months for Blackstone. Analysts hype the price of stocks like Blackstone.

I would not be surprised if Blackstone reaches $60 (i.e., early 2020 price levels) which would mean the stock drops 58% from its all time high and 52 week high.

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Eman says

My dad is a GC so it’s a walk in the park.

Don't let out any trade secrets! Making more sense now. So, I'm assuming you're partnering with him on the flips.

ad says

I checked MSN Finance, and Wall Street analysts forecast $100 in 12 months for Blackstone. Analysts hype the price of stocks like Blackstone.

I would not be surprised if Blackstone reaches $60 (i.e., early 2020 price levels) which would mean the stock drops 58% from its all time high and 52 week high.

Hmmm. You may be right about the $60.

Considering that the prices (values?) of stuff are set in the marketplace, I wonder in a world with choices who'd pay $60 or even one dollar to invest in something that limits redemptions.

It's not like they're the only real estate hedge fund in the world.

EBGuy says

Eman says

My dad is a GC so it’s a walk in the park.

Don't let out any trade secrets! Making more sense now. So, I'm assuming you're partnering with him on the flips.

@EBGuy, actually no. I have a flip partner. A young 31-year old hustler. He handles all the deal sourcing and rehabs. I’m mainly an equity investor. I only get involved in the initial design and relayout of the flip. Then I have the final say on accepting the offers. I think he owns 12 rentals now, all by himself. They’re all in the East Bay.

I also have a multifamily partner where we handle a lot of our repairs and maintenance stuff. We have a full-time handyman who handles all the small stuff. For big rehabs, we use his GC. I don’t want to get my family involved in these things.

@EBGuy, my dad did help to rehab 3 out of 6 units I co-own with pkennedy at cost. The other 3, pkennedy and I rehabbed ourselves. My dad rehabbed all my personal units.

What I’ve learned is that once a unit is fully rehabbed, it’s less hassle and the turnover time is much quicker. I send in my handyman to handle the cleaning, paint touch-ups, minor repairs and swap out new door lock, and voila, they’re done within 2-4 days.

@EBGuy and @Patrick,

pkennedy will be in town next week for a few days, 12/12 - 12/15. Let us know if you guys want to meet up on 12/13 or 12/14. I’m unemployed so my schedule is flexible.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/homebuyers-underwater-mortgage-203707947.html

270,000 homebuyers who bought in 2022 are underwater on their mortgage

zzyzzx says

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/homebuyers-underwater-mortgage-203707947.html

270,000 homebuyers who bought in 2022 are underwater on their mortgage

Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.

https://www.bizjournals.com/bizjournals/news/2022/12/07/housing-market-forecast-2023.html

Here's what economists are predicting for the US housing market in 2023

Redfin Corp. this week predicted home prices will fall for the first time since 2011 — but at a modest 4% nationally. Zillow Group Inc. is anticipating home prices to remain flat nationally next year, while Realtor.com has among the more positive predictions, with home prices appreciating 5.4% across the U.S. in 2023.

Fannie Mae is predicting total existing home sales will be 3.9 million in 2023 and prices will fall 1.5%. Meanwhile, Capital Economics is predicting U.S. home prices will fall 8% by mid-2023 and Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) is forecasting a 5.5% decline in home prices.

zzyzzx says

https://www.bizjournals.com/bizjournals/news/2022/12/07/housing-market-forecast-2023.html

Here's what economists are predicting for the US housing market in 2023

Redfin Corp. this week predicted home prices will fall for the first time since 2011 — but at a modest 4% nationally. Zillow Group Inc. is anticipating home prices to remain flat nationally next year, while Realtor.com has among the more positive predictions, with home prices appreciating 5.4% across the U.S. in 2023.

Fannie Mae is predicting total existing home sales will be 3.9 million in 2023 and prices will fall 1.5%. Meanwhile, Capital Economics is predicting U.S. home prices will fall 8% by mid-2023 and Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) is forecasting a 5.5% decline in home prices.

Historically speaking, which one of these prognosticators has been more correct?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mortgage-qualifying-rate-canada-may-184048144.html

Mortgage-Qualifying Rate in Canada May Top 8% After Latest Central Bank Hike

https://www.reddit.com/r/FirstTimeHomeBuyer/comments/zf7f8k/property_tax_explosion/

I got some jarring news from my mortgage company I was hoping to get insight on. My wife and I purchased our first ever home for $635,000.00. It had previously been owned for 30 years, so the taxes were capped around $3k despite a market value assessment of 350k. This was also our escrow amount.

The letter we received says that we now owe $10k in back escrow because the taxes increased to $11k a year and there were insufficient funds to cover it. Additionally, our monthly payment went up $700 because of the jump. This accounts for our homestead exemption.

My question is, is this right? It seems insane that homebuyers aren’t told their payments will jump exponentially year one. We were already at the top of our budget, and going from $3,500/month to nearly $5k for the next year is brutal. Once the escrow is paid back it will be around $4.1k, but that is still way more than we ever expected, although there was an expectation of some increase. I appreciate any insight that can be offered.

zzyzzx says

https://www.reddit.com/r/FirstTimeHomeBuyer/comments/zf7f8k/property_tax_explosion/

I got some jarring news from my mortgage company I was hoping to get insight on. My wife and I purchased our first ever home for $635,000.00. It had previously been owned for 30 years, so the taxes were capped around $3k despite a market value assessment of 350k. This was also our escrow amount.

The letter we received says that we now owe $10k in back escrow because the taxes increased to $11k a year and there were insufficient funds to cover it. Additionally, our monthly payment went up $700 because of the jump. This accounts for our homestead exemption.

My question is, is this right? It seems insane that homebuyers aren’t told their payments will jump exponentially year one. We were already at the top of our budget, and going from $3...

If they go equity negative...jingle mail all the way.

Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 53% Year-over-year; New Listings Down 8%

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/12/realtorcom-reports-weekly-active_8.html

2023 Housing Forecasts

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/12/2023-housing-forecasts.html

GNL says

zzyzzx says

https://www.reddit.com/r/FirstTimeHomeBuyer/comments/zf7f8k/property_tax_explosion/

I got some jarring news from my mortgage company I was hoping to get insight on. My wife and I purchased our first ever home for $635,000.00. It had previously been owned for 30 years, so the taxes were capped around $3k despite a market value assessment of 350k. This was also our escrow amount.

The letter we received says that we now owe $10k in back escrow because the taxes increased to $11k a year and there were insufficient funds to cover it. Additionally, our monthly payment went up $700 because of the jump. This accounts for our homestead exemption.

My question is, is this right? It seems insane that homebuyers aren’t told their payments will j...

He sounded like a CA 1978 Prop 13 victim.

Blue says

GNL says

zzyzzx says

https://www.reddit.com/r/FirstTimeHomeBuyer/comments/zf7f8k/property_tax_explosion/

I got some jarring news from my mortgage company I was hoping to get insight on. My wife and I purchased our first ever home for $635,000.00. It had previously been owned for 30 years, so the taxes were capped around $3k despite a market value assessment of 350k. This was also our escrow amount.

The letter we received says that we now owe $10k in back escrow because the taxes increased to $11k a year and there were insufficient funds to cover it. Additionally, our monthly payment went up $700 because of the jump. This accounts for our homestead exemption.

My que...

Oh, so that's what happens? So the longer the seller has owned the home, the larger the tax jolt will be to the buyer, correct? This is because the new tax amount will be calculated on the price the buyer pays vs. the price the seller originally paid?

Yes, tax amount get rest at next purchase price. CA 1978 prop 13 is a Ponzi scheme. Not only outside the CA but too many insiders are not aware of this crap until you get into the trap. Like any Ponzi scheme, the longer you stay your tax rate goes south even though you receive gov service like everyone else. Since property tax rate is effectively the lowest for many in the country, CA has to push every tax rate to the roof to compensate the difference. This topic really upset the people who pay none to nothing tax to their multi million dollar shacks while they enjoy the gains.

GNL says

Blue says

GNL says

zzyzzx says

https://www.reddit.com/r/FirstTimeHomeBuyer/comments/zf7f8k/property_tax_explosion/

I got some jarring news from my mortgage company I was hoping to get insight on. My wife and I purchased our first ever home for $635,000.00. It had previously been owned for 30 years, so the taxes were capped around $3k despite a market value assessment of 350k. This was also our escrow amount.

The letter we received says that we now owe $10k in back escrow because the taxes increased to $11k a year and there were insufficient funds to cover it. Additionally, our monthly payment went ...

The bigger issue is he paid $635K for a house with a market value assessment of $350k. I wonder if that was what the previous county assessment was or if that was what the appraisal was. If county assessment, then ok, what the fuck did he think was going to happen. It’s 1% of sale price plus .xx based on all the local add-ons and bullshit bonds and such.

https://news.yahoo.com/housing-prices-drop-across-california-225800701.html

Housing prices drop across California’s Bay Area

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rh-ceo-the-housing-market-is-collapsing-133624128.html

RH CEO: 'The housing market is collapsing'

Nooooooooooo! Sob, Sob!

zzyzzx says

RH CEO: 'The housing market is collapsing'

It's not collapsing. Cities are. High end city sales are going to drag down median national prices big time. This is an exodus "crash" not a housing crash overall. The house we're planning on building in Chicago would be $2-3M. We're doing it for $500k out in the country. Better schools. No traffic. Local CSA's, butchers and other products that we don't pay a markup at Target for. Work from home or just drive.

Cities are toast. The people are younger for the party or too old and living on government income. Demographically most cities are shit. 30-50 year olds who have the money and spend it, have kids, don't want to live in cities. Defund the police. Great. Let's live in a crime filled hellhole on tiny lots, litter, piss and shit, etc. There's no reason to live in cities anymore.

You also mentally cannot live in a liberal city if you have any morals. I get some people stay because of family, but who cares? The block I lived on in Chicago we knew NOBODY. There's no community. 100+ units on the block. I have people in my town now come up to me like they know me and I'm like who the fuck is that? In a positive way. Everyone is nice outside of the occasional hill billy tool at the local bars. AKA the drunks that can't control it, but that's worse in the city and may result in a bullet wound.

https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-supply-record-increase-homes-linger/

Housing Market Update: Supply Posts Record Increase As Homes Linger on the Market


Among the 50 most populous U.S. metros, pending sales fell the most from a year earlier in Las Vegas (-65.4%), Austin (-60.7%), Phoenix (-56.8%), Jacksonville, FL (-55.6%) and Portland, OR (-53.5%).

Months of supply—a measure of the balance between supply and demand, calculated by dividing the number of active listings by closed sales—was 3.9 months

Correction is needed for good reason particularly in high price areas. For the rest, crashing is bad for good people who want to keep their roof but good for flippers who take advantage of crazy Biden inflation.

Uhhhhhhh, 3.9 months of supply is crashing?????

In another era that would be booming. We're just used to having multiple offers on listing day.

WookieMan says

The house we're planning on building...

It seems you've been planning on building this house for the last 2 years now. What's going on? Your wife makes over $300K? Seems you could easily have gotten it started even if you do have mortgage payments on another house.

Misc says

Uhhhhhhh, 3.9 months of supply is crashing?????

It's normalizing.

"It's just a lot of uncertainty right now. But one thing I'm certain of : The housing market is collapsing at a level I haven't seen since 2008. I haven't seen this kind of drop since 2008."- Gary Friedman, CEO, Restoration Hardware, November 9, 2022

zzyzzx says

It's normalizing.

LOL! it's un-insane-ating.

Lennar offers 5,000 homes to investors with buyer demand sliding

https://unitedbrokersinc.net/2022/12/09/lennar-offers-5000-homes-to-investors-with-buyer-demand-sliding/

GNL says

WookieMan says

The house we're planning on building...

It seems you've been planning on building this house for the last 2 years now. What's going on? Your wife makes over $300K? Seems you could easily have gotten it started even if you do have mortgage payments on another house.

We optioned the lots in March this year. Working on a plan where my mom buys our current house. That way we're not carrying two loans and have the equity to throw at the build. No rush on our end either or hers. Lumber has come down in our area too, so the wait has been worth it. We're probably 30-60 days from the rubber meeting the road.

I don't care about interest rates as I know in 2-5 years they'll be back to 0 basically. We haven't seen truly "high" interest rates since the 70's.

There's also a fuck ton of planning building a custom home. There are a ton of details that most people "building" a subdivision house don't have to deal with. It's not like working with a builder doing 100 homes and you have option A or B on all items. We have the whole alphabet in front of us because it's our choice on everything. We are picking all finishes. No builder grade cheap shit.

I'm also going to part time GC the job. Builder is cool with it and makes it cheaper on our end. I'm a planner though. I don't like problems. Anything I can do to eliminate them is the goal.

Blue says

Yes, tax amount get rest at next purchase price. CA 1978 prop 13 is a Ponzi scheme. Not only outside the CA but too many insiders are not aware of this crap until you get into the trap. Like any Ponzi scheme, the longer you stay your tax rate goes south even though you receive gov service like everyone else. Since property tax rate is effectively the lowest for many in the country, CA has to push every tax rate to the roof to compensate the difference. This topic really upset the people who pay none to nothing tax to their multi million dollar shacks while they enjoy the gains.

Yep. My biggest investment mistake was not being born 10 years earlier.

porkchopexpress says

Blue says

Yes, tax amount get rest at next purchase price. CA 1978 prop 13 is a Ponzi scheme. Not only outside the CA but too many insiders are not aware of this crap until you get into the trap. Like any Ponzi scheme, the longer you stay your tax rate goes south even though you receive gov service like everyone else. Since property tax rate is effectively the lowest for many in the country, CA has to push every tax rate to the roof to compensate the difference. This topic really upset the people who pay none to nothing tax to their multi million dollar shacks while they enjoy the gains.

Yep. My biggest investment mistake was not being born 10 years earlier.

You don’t want to be born 10 years earlier. People pay a lot of money to be 10 years younger. I know a 68-year old gentleman who is willing to give all his money ($60M net worth) to be 18 again. If you can enjoy life at a younger age, take it. Money can’t buy your youth back.

Eman says

You don’t want to be born 10 years earlier. People pay a lot of money to be 10 years younger. I know a 68-year old gentleman who is willing to give all his money ($60M net worth) to be 18 again. If you can enjoy life at a younger age, take it. Money can’t buy your youth back.

Yup. Live life once. Money helps. Enjoy it though. Even if that means being reckless or risky at times. I'll be in the Bahamas, Dominican, AZ and MT in January. Should I? Probably not if you're listening to Dave Ramsey. Fucking live life guys.

The part people don't get. You don't HAVE to pay it. AND you can't take it with you. Until you realize those two truths, you're living a life of misery. Enjoy.

If it floats, flies, or fucks, lease it. The cost of ownership is too damned high.

DD214 says

Lennar offers 5,000 homes to investors with buyer demand sliding

https://unitedbrokersinc.net/2022/12/09/lennar-offers-5000-homes-to-investors-with-buyer-demand-sliding/

It's a stupid time to buy a house.

Prices are only gonna drop.

You're tired of me saying this, but there is a massive demographic shift. For 40 years, boomers powered house buying. Few people in their 60s are looking for 4 bed, 2.5 baths in the burbs. Foreign buyers looking for Pied-a-tierres aren't interested in moving to lower-middle class suburbs of Pittsburgh, Atlanta, or Dallas.

Alot of these 60 somethings are hoping that prices stay high. They won't. And those in their 60s can hardly bitch, having lived through low interest rates for half their lives, multiple decades.

I mean American burbs around the nation, not just SFBA.