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Treasury yield curve


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2022 Oct 24, 10:08pm   293 views  3 comments

by AD   ➕follow (1)   💰tip   ignore  



"Historically, an inverted yield curve has been viewed as an indicator of a pending economic recession. When short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates, market sentiment suggests that the long-term outlook is poor and that the yields offered by long-term fixed income will continue to fall." - Investopedia

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1   AD   2022 Oct 24, 10:09pm  

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The current yield curve looks inverted from 1 year to 10 years since the 1 year rate is more than the 10 year rate.

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2   AD   2022 Oct 24, 10:10pm  

Look at the Treasury yield curve in January 2000. It does not look inverted. The economy was doing well back then.

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3   AD   2022 Oct 25, 3:57am  

Rising Fed Funds rate and rising inflation has impacted bond funds or balanced funds like Vanguards Target Retirement Fund (ticker: VTINX).

There was a 24% drop from VTINX's 52 week high (Nov 2021) to its 52 week low (Oct 2022).

VTINX is 70% government / investment grade bonds and 30% in stocks (Wilshire 5000 and an International stock market index fund).

Also Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF is down 16.6% for the year as of 24 October. This is its worst performance since its inception in 2007. Its second worst was -2.11% for 2013.

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