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What are Realtors saying?


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2022 Jun 15, 1:58pm   2,445 views  38 comments

by GNL   ➕follow (1)   💰tip   ignore  

I'm a real estate photographer in the DC metro area. I've been doing this for the last 15 years (if you're a photographer and you don't offer real estate photography services, you're missing out on lots of business) and I have a close relationship with many many Realtors. This means they are willing to tell me things I don't believe they would necessarily tell their sellers or most likely their buyers. Anyway, over the last 2 months, Realtors have been saying, in unison, "the market has changed" or "the market has shifted". BUT today, one of my long time Realtor clients told me she is selling her house 1-2 years earlier than she planned because the market is "collapsing". This was her words. She said she is already missing out on over 100k and maybe even 200k on her $1.1 million home. My last photoshoot, JUST TODAY, the homeowners told me they are selling and going to rent until the market "corrects". True, they could be wrong but, hey even the Realtor told me she was going to get 100k-200k less than she would have gotten 6 months ago so...

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18   porkchopXpress   2022 Jun 15, 6:55pm  

WineHorror1 says


porkchopexpress says


I think now is a terrible time to buy, but we're buying a house so we can get out of CA and move to TN. We love the house, the location is amazing, it's well within our means to pay for it, and we need a place to live. I'm sick of renting and watching rents skyrocket, so there you have it. Plus, renting in CA is way more $$ than owning in a primo area in TN when you consider state income taxes, and renting in the area where we're buying is only $500/cheaper than our all-in house payment will be. Just made sense for us even though it goes against all of the principles I've learned over the years and on this website.

It was ultimately a compromise to buy a home for my wife because she didn't want to leave CA, and this got her super excited about TN

I am quite happy for you. Leaving California is the real prize imo. I...

Thanks man! You're close...I have a freshman and sophomore in high school, and the mandatory jab will likely go into effect next Summer. I could've delayed moving a year but then my oldest would be moving right before his senior year, and that would really suck for him. I just made the decision to move now for the benefit of the family even if home prices drop over the next year.
19   joshuatrio   2022 Jun 16, 4:58am  

We are in the process of buying a farm as we speak. But only because we just sold our current house. If we weren't pushing the overinflated equity into a new property, I would straight up rent for the next 2-4 years.

Market is tanking though. We only had one offer on our house and we negotiated $70k off the farm. We live in a top school district, highly desirable area outside Atlanta.

A month ago we would have had multiple offers way over asking. We literally "only" got asking.
20   BayArea   2022 Jun 16, 5:58am  

Remember, realtors lie when the market is hot and they lie when the market is cold. They always lie.

That’s not entirely true, some are also incompetent and they aren’t aware that what they say is wrong.
21   Onvacation   2022 Jun 16, 6:13am  

porkchopexpress says

the mandatory jab will likely go into effect next Summer.

I would hope they are done with that bullshit.

The Wuhan is a bio engineered bad cold that culls the old and sick. The Vax has proven itself unsafe and ineffective and there are a large minority (30% and growing) that would rather lose their job and have the FBI "Branch Davidian" our homes rather than let them give us or our children the jab.
22   B.A.C.A.H.   2022 Jun 16, 8:11am  

Ceffer says

Two canaries in the coal mine for sale in my hood in Tri Valley. Similar homes, yet one listed for 250k less than the other. Is that to induce a bidding war? I guess we'll see. So far, neither one is flying off the blocks.


I began following Patrick's blog during the '03-'08 Housing Bubble. Too many folks in my "social/work" bubble were drinking the Cool Aid. Not all of them were drinking, but most of them were. It was nice to read the comments of others who had a different point of view.

There was a native Southern California guy with the handle surferex who bemoaned the prospect of being a lifelong renter in his own backyard as he was priced out by the Cool Aid Drinkers. But he knew the prices were insane, unsustainable, and too high for him. He shared on Patrick.net where he found some kindred spirits.

Then one day he posted for the last time, he bought a place in a coastal community of Southern California. I think that was 2007. He did not share that he won some lottery or got some RSU windfall. At the time I considered this as a Capitulation to a perceived reality of permanent unaffordability.
23   clambo   2022 Jun 16, 8:26am  

Buying a place to live in isn’t a terrible idea if you like the neighborhood and can afford it.

Selling it for a profit and hoping to buy again later seems like a lot of trouble.

My realtor friend in Santa Cruz is successful at it; but she and husband just sold their house ($1.4 million) and bought a place in Georgia.

But, she will rent an apartment in California so she can keep working.
Maybe she will find a way to work in Georgia.

While selling the outrageously expensive places in Santa Cruz, she decided she was not going to like being surrounded by homeless and illegals.
24   B.A.C.A.H.   2022 Jun 16, 10:06am  

clambo says

My realtor friend in Santa Cruz is successful at it; but she and husband just sold their house ($1.4 million) and bought a place in Georgia.

But, she will rent an apartment in California so she can keep working.
Maybe she will find a way to work in Georgia.

Oh jeez. What is so wrong with renting for a year or two when relocating, especially if you still have one foot in the old location?

Buy! Buy! Buy!
27   porkchopXpress   2022 Jun 16, 6:11pm  

I believe that certain very desirable areas will continue to be in demand because rich people will always have money to buy real estate, especially when the market tanks making it impossible for the average person. Location, location location
28   Ceffer   2022 Jun 16, 7:48pm  

B.A.C.A.H. says

Oh jeez. What is so wrong with renting for a year or two when relocating, especially if you still have one foot in the old location?

Nothing. You outline the best strategy to give yourself a year to shop in the new location, rather than a desperation purchase of current inventory.
29   BayArea   2022 Jun 16, 8:41pm  

I am 100% behind renting in a new area for a year before buying.
30   AD   2022 Jun 16, 10:27pm  

At least lumber has returned to 2018 levels. Its $563 and continues to slide downward. It was +$1500 in 2021.

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/commodities/lbs

.
31   WillyWanker   2022 Jun 17, 12:19am  

BayArea says

I am 100% behind renting in a new area for a year before buying.


I absolutely would advise everyone to rent before buying. I suppose if you have a bunch of little children that may prove a problem, but otherwise, it's very important that you like your neighborhood or particular street. Buying something sight unseen, via videos and photos would be something I would not do. Even apartment buildings that were practically given away in Vegas in 2011, I would physically inspect.
32   porkchopXpress   2022 Jun 17, 6:23am  

I totally agree with everyone’s logic. I broke these rules but I sure hope it works out. We’re moving from CA to TN and closing on a house next Friday without seeing it in person. We’ve seen tons of video and pictures, had it inspected in detail, and are trusting our realtor who has done several walkthroughs while we’ve been on FaceTime, and we’ve toured a ton of other homes with him and really do like him. Fact is my wife REALLY wanted to buy (and I do too frankly) and that was the compromise for her to leave CA and avoid the vaccine mandates for our kids, state income taxes, and all other bullshit.

With how competitive and fast moving the market has been, it was near impossible to fly out for every prospective house before making an offer and locking in a purchase agreement. So, we did it all remotely. Scary I know. This house is well beneath our means and we love it and its location is prime. Renting in that same area was about the same annual cost and we’re so goddamn sick of renting.

I’ll let you guys know if this was a success or a colossal mistake. I know I’m buying at a peak and doing so remotely which goes against all of my principles, but we live in crazy times and it meant taking crazy measures for what was best for my family, who are all SUPER excited to move to this house.
33   GNL   2022 Jun 17, 6:28am  

@porkchopexpress, I hope it works out perfectly for you. Good luck.
34   porkchopXpress   2022 Jun 17, 6:55am  

Thanks @WineHorror1 !
35   RC2006   2022 Jun 17, 7:03am  

It's nerve racking but you'd never know unless you tried. It's often when we do the hardest things and take risks that we grow the most.
36   GNL   2022 Jun 17, 7:17am  

I'm just happy to see someone getting the hell out of California. That state doesn't deserve the ability to tax decent people or families.
37   Bd6r   2022 Jun 17, 7:51am  

WineHorror1 says

I'm just happy to see someone getting the hell out of California.

Unfortunately (not blaming California Patnetters, obviously) CA transplants in TX are turning parts of our Great State into shithole they left behind. A lot of Californians better stay in California and enjoy results of their voting habits.
38   BayArea   2022 Jun 17, 7:54am  

My good buddy finally got fed up and moved hi family from Los Angeles to Dallas in what he refers to as the “pursuit of happiness”

Sold his house in LA at peak and has been house shopping for the past 3months but getting beat out on everything he bids on. He says anything desirable is multiple offer and way above asking.

He finally decided to rent for the time being and take his time, particularly with interest rates skyrocketing.

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