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Housing Inventory May 23rd Update: Inventory UP 8.2% Week-over-week.


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2022 May 23, 7:40am   613 views  12 comments

by Al_Sharpton_for_President   ➕follow (5)   💰tip   ignore  

Altos reports inventory is up year-over-year!

Inventory usually declines in the winter, and then increases in the spring. Inventory bottomed seasonally at the beginning of March 2022 and is now up 43% since then.

Altos Home InventoryClick on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of May 20th, inventory was at 344 thousand (7-day average), compared to 318 thousand the prior week. Inventory was up 8.2% from the previous week.

Inventory is still very low. Compared to the same week in 2021, inventory is up 6.4% from 324 thousand, however compared to the same week in 2020, and inventory is down 52.5% from 724 thousand. Compared to 3 years ago, inventory is down 63.3% from 938 thousand.

Here are the inventory milestones I’m watching for with the Altos data:

1. The seasonal bottom (happened on March 4th for Altos) ✅

2. Inventory up year-over-year (happened on May 13th for Altos) ✅

3. Inventory up compared to two years ago (currently down 52.5% according to Altos)

4. Inventory up compared to 2019 (currently down 63.3%).

Altos Home Inventory
Here is a graph of the inventory change year-over-year and vs two years ago (milestone 3 above).

The blue line is the year-over-year data, and the red line is compared to two years ago.

Inventory is now up year-over-year. Two years ago (in 2020) inventory was declining all year, so the two-year comparison will get easier all year.

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/05/housing-inventory-may-23rd-update.html



Comments 1 - 12 of 12        Search these comments

1   RWSGFY   2022 May 23, 7:41am  

Nooooooooo!
2   porkchopXpress   2022 May 23, 12:43pm  

It can't be. It's different this time. No NINJA
3   EBGuy   2022 May 23, 6:38pm  

Ess Eff inventory at an eleven year high.
5   AmericanKulak   2022 May 25, 10:32pm  

Yeehah!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTHjv33d200&t=91s

"Nobody ever went broke from selling too soon." - Bernard Baruch
6   Al_Sharpton_for_President   2022 May 26, 10:30am  

Realtor.com Reports Weekly Inventory Up 9% Year-over-year
Inventory growth appears to be accelerating

CalculatedRisk by Bill McBride
May 26

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As I noted last year, Inventory will Tell the Tale about the housing market. And inventory levels are now up year-over-year and increasing quickly.

As the housing market slows, we need to watch inventory very closely. This will give us a hint on what will happen with house prices.

And not just the monthly existing home sales report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) and the monthly new home sales report from the Census Bureau. I also track inventory and sales for 35+ local markets each month. And every Monday, I post weekly inventory data from Altos Research on calculatedriskblog.com.

Realtor.com Weekly Inventory Data

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released this morning from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending May 21, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory.

New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were up 6% above one year ago. After several years of abnormal seasonality, it is heartening to see more new sellers in May, the period of the year where we tend to see the largest number of home sellers listing for the first time. Seller confidence amid record high asking prices is driving the growth in the number of sellers this year over last which we’ve seen in 7 of the last 8 weeks.

As we see more new sellers and overall inventory improves, tipping market conditions in a buyer friendly direction, this may somewhat surprisingly reinforce the trend and add even more sellers. Our research shows that nearly 3 in 4 home sellers this year is also planning to buy a home, so what’s good for the buyer is also, in many cases, good for the home seller.

Active inventory continued to grow, rising 9% above one year ago. In a few short weeks, we’ve observed a significant turnaround in the number of homes available for sale, going from essentially flat two weeks ago, to +5% last week, to +9% this week. This is the biggest year over year gain ever observed in our weekly data history which goes back to 2017, and the first consecutive weeks of gains since 2019.

This is a milestone to celebrate, but should be understood in context. Our April Housing Trends Report showed that the active listings count remained 60 percent below its level right at the onset of the pandemic. This means that April’s buyers had just 2 homes to consider for every 5 homes that were available for sale just before the pandemic. May data in summary is likely to show that even as the market is adjusting rapidly, the number of homes for sale remains limited compared to pre-pandemic conditions.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. Note: I corrected a sign error in the data for Feb 26, 2022.






Note the rapid increase in the YoY change, from down 30% at the beginning of the year, to up 9% YoY now. It will be important to watch if that trend continues. It appears that inventory growth is accelerating, as demand declines. (Earlier today, the NAR reported pending home sales were down 9.1% year-over-year in April.)

The previous week, inventory was down 5.0% YoY according to Realtor.com. That is somewhat lower than the 8.2% decline that Altos reported for the similar period. I expect Altos to report a larger year-over-year increase in inventory on Monday.

The bottom line is inventory is key, and inventory is now increasing year-over-year (but still very low). Inventory will be a key focus this year!
https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/realtorcom-reports-weekly-inventory-dbc
7   joshuatrio   2022 May 26, 1:17pm  

Things are sitting now. Price cuts happening on a lot of listings.

It's different this time.
8   richwicks   2022 May 26, 2:05pm  

joshuatrio says

Things are sitting now. Price cuts happening on a lot of listings.

It's different this time.


It's Depression 2.0
9   GNL   2022 May 26, 4:03pm  

richwicks says

joshuatrio says

Things are sitting now. Price cuts happening on a lot of listings.

It's different this time.


It's Depression 2.0

Is that your prediction?
10   Booger   2022 May 26, 5:12pm  

richwicks says
It's Depression 2.0


I'm thinking that if there is anyone that is going to get hit hard, it's factory workers in China.

Even if sales of stuff has dropped off, there is such low inventory of things like appliances, vehicles, doors, windows, and lots of other things that just rebuilding inventory to normal levels is going to take a while. Probably the rest of the year, at least. I didn't think that car lots will be filled in a year.
11   richwicks   2022 May 26, 6:01pm  

HunterTits says
richwicks says
It's Depression 2.0


Not for me. I don't own and never have. Hope the homeowners take a fucking bath, actually.


There's a double edge sword to Depression 2.0

1) real estate is a liability, not an asset.
2) no jobs.

Booger says
I'm thinking that if there is anyone that is going to get hit hard, it's factory workers in China.


India and China I think will be up and coming, and will replace Europe and the United States. South America might be OK and might even flourish.

How bad this gets is how many people were stupid enough to have non fixed rates debt. Anybody on an ARM mortgage - they're fucked and remember, Greenspan told EVERYBODY to get on an adjustable rate mortgage, 15-20 years ago.

My theory is that the financial markets are designed to cause maximum pain to people that listen to these sociopaths.
12   HeadSet   2022 May 26, 6:20pm  

richwicks says
Greenspan told EVERYBODY to get on an adjustable rate mortgage, 15-20 years ago.

Good advice at the time, as an adjustable rate mortgage taken out 20 years ago would have had downward rate adjustments until now.

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