patrick.net

Teddybearneil says

You bet I am living in a new place - a 2007 Built home which is 2700 sft and has a lot sized 5000 sft!

Ahhhhh yes - only in Texas can you buy a 4,000 sq. ft. home for $150,000.

I remember driving around parts of Fort Worth and Sachse, my wife and I laughed when we saw mcmansions going for $137k.

Property taxes kill though.

Teddybearneil says

You bet I am living in a new place - a 2007 Built home
...
this home has withstood Ike, Katrina and Rita without a scratch or dent or shingle flying off!!

What about the eruption of Mt. Vesuvius and the Chicxulub impact?

Housing prices are going down with interest rates artificially low. Interest rates have nowhere to go but up (and they will eventually go up). Prices will have to come down to compensate. Just a warning that housing prices are not even close to a bottom.

vain says

Point is prices dipped and people got off the sidelines.

I'd characterize it more as suckers being pulled in on a dip.

A 50 yr old tear down is not worth $400k short of having been built on a big oil prospect or gold mine.

vain says

That’s how much properties cost in the Bay Area.

The Bay Area is not worth that at all, you're being played for a fool man. Stay the hell away from housing for the next few years if you're looking for a deal, prices will drop another 20% minimum over that time frame. Or jump in early and catch a falling knife, its your hand to play. But don't go telling others that this is reasonable.

vain says

If you think a 50 year old house is old, you must be living in a new place. ...This 50 year old property may stand longer than the place you are living at now.

Most of those homes are built in such a way that 50 years is near end of life for them. If you buy one you're almost certainly going to have to deal with some major major renovation. New roofing, foundation renovation, redoing the pipes and/or wiring, etc. You can easily spend $100k renovating them, far more if you really want to make it look nice. And I'm not just talking about granite counter tops either (screw granite too BTW, Corian, stainless, or eng. stone). Those homes are not deals in any way shape or form.

$150k might be a deal for one. Maybe.

karen says

I would bet that part of what is going on is that every dip in prices is going to bring out another group of people. Right now you’re getting people who think this is an amazing price; they’ve been waiting and waiting and they think “wow”!! but you really have to have more of a historical sense, and look at long term trends. these prices are still way too high.

Karen these properties were valued at high 300k's since mid to late 1990 circa. you are right about anything past skyline blvd though. there is no demand for those properties.

Teddybearneil says

vain says

If you think a 50 year old house is old, you must be living in a new place. There are arguments about newer having lower quality. This 50 year old property may stand longer than the place you are living at now.

You bet I am living in a new place - a 2007 Built home which is 2700 sft and has a lot sized 5000 sft! By the way I bought it from a bank for 135K in Texas and I don’t think any 50 yr old property gonna stand longer than a 2007 property bro, this home has withstood Ike, Katrina and Rita without a scratch or dent or shingle flying off!!

if you've had so many natural disasters since 2007, believe me, a 50 year old home here WILL out last your place.

I am talking about aiming for the cash price of a house. With if possible no loan. You say hey fine for you guy. Thing is look at Detroit. It actually happened there. The banks losing valuation on their assets is no problem for me. You say junk. Take a good look at Detroit there are some fine houses there going for very little.

What they are doing and have done almost religiously. Is to loss leader junk houses then switch you into something more expensive saying look it just dosen't exsist what your thinking about. There are junk houses no doubt. You'll hit a boatload of townhomes. Or Condo's Your saying to yourself same old game. ITS NOT THE SAME OLD GAME. They are just playing the same old
game. See you are never going to seperate the establishment in this land from the bankers. They love each other. They both make money. THING IS DON'T BELIEVE EITHER OR THEM. They are weighing you down. Trying to burn you.

See if you believed what I'm telling you. Really believed it. You would not be so discouraged. There is no home buying going on. NONE. Refi's all day long. Lots of those. Thats how the values rise in a lot of cases. The real deal here is the MBS market is shot to pieces. That means no new home sales. Because of the losses due to foreclouser. Standards on refis have changed. No cash out etc. But the losses in foreclousers dictate the day here. See. No home building going on. You can't see anything because you aren't looking hard enough. I will repeat Craigs (which I love) is pointless for houses. For the most part. It's no good. Realtors pointless. lTrulia and Zillow even more pointless and one big lie. The most prigish thing on earth is a for sale by owner. So unless they are in real trouble they can be pointless. All those above mentioned people are stubbornly holding on till something happens. Well Mr. Broker. If you understood how the MBS market crashed. How there is absoulutly no incentive for credit anymore. You might start thinking a little differently. No skin of of my nose. The only thing left is the Refi market to pull this thing off. With the losses just not going to make it. They can hold the REO's off the market and Zillow all day long. Not going to help.

When you look at the urban areas. Thats one thing. The rural areas are screwed to the wall. Go a little further out and you will see. Rural areas are tough in the best of times. To get any kind of price for a house.

Detroit was loss of industry. I don't believe it for a minute that anything is recovering. Just like I don't believe Obama is for peace. See. People will lie their faces off if it is in their best interest. This whole deal is just hanging in the air. Waiting for something good to happen. Its just not coming. So naturally things are going to fall.

tts says

you’re being played for a fool man. Stay the hell away from housing for the next few years if you’re looking for a deal, prices will drop another 20% minimum over that time frame. Or jump in early and catch a falling knife, its your hand to play. But don’t go telling others that this is reasonable.

vain says

these properties were valued at high 300k’s since mid to late 1990 circa.

This property is a typical case of the dude catching a falling knife!! Notice the Listing price before this sucker bought it - It was 515K and I can bet you he got fooled into making a higher offer by the realtor cartel and he ended up paying 535K!! Now he is trying to sell it for 539K (that would be a loss of 30K!)

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/145-Coralflower-Ln-San-Ramon-CA-94582/18456573_zpid/

There is a similar home EXACTLY next door..listed for 439K!!!! Go figure....

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/144-Coralflower-Ln-San-Ramon-CA-94582/18456555_zpid/

People are STILL encouraging me to buy a house.

The SAME people who kept telling me to buy 5-6 yrs ago. Chances are good they're wrong on BOTH ends of the spectrum.

I will considering purchasing when these people finally advise me NOT to buy... or at least when they finally STOP talking about real estate like they know something about it.

In the meantime, i might throw a bone to any homeowners by renting.

tts says

Stay the hell away from housing for the next few years if you’re looking for a deal, prices will drop another 20% minimum over that time frame. Or jump in early and catch a falling knife, its your hand to play. But don’t go telling others that this is reasonable.

I was in no way encouraging anyone to purchase a property. You all seem to agree that prices need to fall another X%. I'm here telling you that I see sales prices before any reports get generated because I have an RE Agent MLS account. Your claim of prices needing to fall X% has happened possibly and you probably do not know it yet. The only ones that will probably feel it are the ones actively looking and offering.

joshuatrio says

Property taxes kill though.

I used to think that property taxes were high too (this was my first home) but once you start thinking of what the taxes are being applied to, you kind of begin to think in terms of how efficiently your tax $$ being used rather than how much you are paying!!

Shan says

The owner of the townhome still has his property listed above what he paid or, however, the former model unit in the development just sold for $100k less than what he’s asking.

Classic example of the Ostrich attitude!! I think you are referring to the Bristol-Levittown-Morrisville area and it looks like the Bordentown effect has caught on ..after having been kinda stubbornly resistant through most of the last 2 yrs, the prices in the Bordentown area have collapsed in the past 6 months!

Eva G says

I currently live in NY and to my surprise in such a huge market I’ve seen prices inching downwards. However, realtors and cash buyers are still making house prices too damn expensive.

I can understand realtors trying to game you, but how do you think cash buyers are making house prices expensive? I think cash buyers are just looking for bargain basement prices, they are not gonna bid up prices and will drop off if the price does not meet their vulture criteria!!

Teddybearneil says

Eva G says

I currently live in NY and to my surprise in such a huge market I’ve seen prices inching downwards. However, realtors and cash buyers are still making house prices too damn expensive.

I can understand realtors trying to game you, but how do you think cash buyers are making house prices expensive? I think cash buyers are just looking for bargain basement prices, they are not gonna bid up prices and will drop off if the price does not meet their vulture criteria!!

I guess we need more and more cash buyers low balling. That will reduce the comps constantly. So you are winning big just by not participating in the feeding frenzy and its aftermath. When banks start loaning money to overbidding buyers and cash buyers start to offer above asking price, that's when we may have turn around.

vain says

You all seem to agree that prices need to fall another X%. I’m here telling you that I see sales prices before any reports get generated because I have an RE Agent MLS account. Your claim of prices needing to fall X% has happened possibly and you probably do not know it yet. The only ones that will probably feel it are the ones actively looking and offering.

MLS account doesn't see 3 or 4 years into the future. Maybe 6-9 months tops past headline numbers. We haven't seen 20% depreciation yet and won't soon either since the gov. will likely implement more price propping measures either directly or through mortgage moratoriums.

Any which way you look at it $400K for a gutted house that sold for $300K in decent condition during the 90's is no deal at all. That is a rip off.

Eva G says

I currently live in NY and to my surprise in such a huge market I’ve seen prices inching downwards. However, realtors and cash buyers are still making house prices too damn expensive.

I'm in NY, too. In my small neighborhood, the number of sales is low enough that it's hard to judge anything trend-wise. (Especially since a lot of listings are pocket listings and don't actually show up on Zillow. Gr.) But tonight I was filled with hope to see two (2!) "Make Me Move" listings that started with a 7. I clicked on one to check my memory; back in 2007 they had first set their price at $900k. As of late last month, though, they would be willing to move for a mere $750k.

It's still a fantasy price, but it seemed a little bit significant that sellers' fantasies might be shrinking/ becoming more modest.

A future homeowner can dream. :}

Teddybearneil says

Eva G says

However, realtors and cash buyers are still making house prices too damn expensive.

I can understand realtors trying to game you, but how do you think cash buyers are making house prices expensive?!

I assumed (oops) that EvaG was in NYC. I can't speak for her, but where I am, the ex-Manhattan-Brooklynites have gotten used to super-expensive rents and house prices. They get their Wall Street Bonus and work out that they can get more for their bank-buck here (Queens) than their. Unfortunately, they don't get the delicate bargaining dance and just pay the list price, thinking they're getting a "steal"... *weep. In my neighborhood, until about 15 months ago, you had to pay more than $700k to get a move-in (with children: ie, not willing to live with lead paint or actively leaking exterior walls for more than a week) ready 3 bdrm attached house. (I used to entertain non-locals with my stories of open houses in the under $700k range.)

But to bring it back on-topic: Yes. In the last month I've seen fairly significant price drops. One on a house that had been listed for just over a year finally dropped $20k; one that had only been listed for a month (and still too expensive, but closer to mortgage= rent than many because it's a *legal* 3 family) dropped $30k. I would be very surprised (but delighted!) if it does not sell at that price or very near. It's very near a comp-killer at that price, anyway, so I'm excited. ;)

vain says

Prices are currently about 75k or so over 1998/1999 prices here. With a 4.xxx interest rate, I expect alot of people to jump in this spring to buy a home here.

Banks aren't loaning, haven't you heard?
That's no joke, go to any quick quote web site, and check for your self. Put the best stats in the filters and you'll get 0 offers.

Tenouncetrout says

vain says

Prices are currently about 75k or so over 1998/1999 prices here. With a 4.xxx interest rate, I expect alot of people to jump in this spring to buy a home here.

Banks aren’t loaning, haven’t you heard?

That’s no joke, go to any quick quote web site, and check for your self. Put the best stats in the filters and you’ll get 0 offers.

Maybe I'm going to different websites than you are, but I'm not noticing any type of problems getting responses.

I have written a lot about Zillow and Trulia. Never base any decision on these two sources. They are lender owned and have very bad data. Here is something from CNN money. Which I pay not much attention to. As they are an interest money soaked outlet. However you may find the comments including those by many professionals very interesting.

http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/04/20/why-im-not-buying-zillow/

ArtimusMaxtor says

I have written a lot about Zillow and Trulia. Never base any decision on these two sources. They are lender owned and have very bad data. Here is something from CNN money. Which I pay not much attention to. As they are an interest money soaked outlet. However you may find the comments including those by many professionals very interesting.
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/04/20/why-im-not-buying-zillow/

What part of the Zillow information do you find to be inaccurate? I (and I suspect most others) will readily agree that the Zestimate data (and any Zestimate-derived data) is bunk. I have found it (in Denver) to be pretty good about listing for sale houses, and as far as I can tell the "sold" data seems to be fine. Maybe I'm putting too much faith into Zillow, but I see it as being a good interface to get at public data. If it isn't doing a good job at retrieving data from the MLS and local property records (or wherever it gets it from), I'd like to know about that....otherwise I think it is quite helpful if you use it in the right way.

Hell, the listing price history alone is mighty handy.

I've been in property investing for over 18 years. You might want to go to that link and see what brokers and appraisers say. The sold data is rotten to the core. If they did have a licence it would be gone by now potentially. I have pulled the data at the courthouse in few samplings.

86% of the data is bogus. On sold houses. The pricing history is just a statistical graph. Who knows where they got that from. The listing are mostly REO's. You have to know the difference bettween an REO and a Foreclouser. Basically they are trying to keep the prices of the houses high. To recover their losses. Basically you can list and sell your house for anything you want.

Never ever use something so convienant and accesable to value your house. Denver has a lot of stability of course. Use a professional appraiser or broker. You will regret using Zillow or Trulia to base any decision off of.

I know it sounds kind of mean what I just said there. Not my intenetion at all when it comes to Trulia and Zillow and the like. See. No matter who you are some Fat politician. Or just about anything else. Its very obvious to me that the lending and banking concerns. Could give a shit about you. See so they were not picky even with their friends when it came to bad data. Hey you play it honest with them. Look what they did to you.. You lost a bundle making decsions. Off of what you thought was good data. Hey screw them. Why not? They screwed you good.

The thought that equity is going to rise based on past events. Your living in a tunnel with a Circus clown if you think that. I will tell you one more time. The MBS deal has dissapeared. There is absoulutly no incentive for credit now. If it does come back. Make sure you write this down so you don't forget it. Whats going to happen is just the opposite of the rising equity days. That involves way to much risk. On the interest mavens part. Lender after lender has closed their doors. That is telling you rising equity has gone away. Along with EZ credit. There was much incentive to sell a mortgage get it backed by an MBS and sell it on the open market. GONE. Now your dealing with credit period. And that my friends is going to lead to several things. I won't go into them here. We are talking 1960s credit standards here.

ArtimusMaxtor says

Make sure you write this down so you don’t forget it.

Said with moxie! :)

ArtimusMaxtor says

Whats going to happen is just the opposite of the rising equity days. That involves way to much risk. On the interest mavens part. Lender after lender has closed their doors. That is telling you rising equity has gone away. Along with EZ credit. There was much incentive to sell a mortgage get it backed by an MBS and sell it on the open market. GONE. Now your dealing with credit period. And that my friends is going to lead to several things. I won’t go into them here. We are talking 1960s credit standards here.

You know, I like the rant. I almost hope you are right, or at least partly right...but the thing I keep thinking is that greed is going peek its head out of the closet, and in a few year we will have "reasonable" standards. 10-15% down, say? Why does it have to go all the way back to 60's lending standards?

ArtimusMaxtor says

86% of the data is bogus. On sold houses. The pricing history is just a statistical graph.

Some of their data is synthetic, like the Zestimate....The Zillow Home Value Index appears to be fakey too...But there are plenty of other metrics, such as "sale price per sqft" which sure are presented like they are "real data", and not some algorithmic guess (Zestimate). BTW, if it is statistical data, I'm OK with that...it's the synthetic data that I ignore.

The problem you were seeing (86% of the data is bogus) doesn't seem to be a problem in the Denver area. I did a spot check of 4-5 recently sold homes (in some cases including long histories of sold prices) and it was in 100% perfect agreement with the Denver public records. Granted, I only looked at 4-5, but I have spot checked in the past with the same results.

For my use I think Zillow, with a few caveats, is helpful and reliable.

-S

60's prices of course. Swebb. Denver is different of course. As far as price stability. Sales etc, That I would not know. I haven't looked at Denver. Not one house. The way things go here. It not much of a ventured guess to know that.

Given the fact the very same people ripped off people world wide with the MBS scam. I don't trust them very much. Neither do a lot of forgein countries. Once again I will give anyone the challange. Take about 20 sold houses on Zillow take them to the courthouse and compare the records. NOT the tax assesors office. If you don't have the time try going to some of the appraisers forums. They call Zillows records fantasy. Most appraisers are working stiffs. Very, very tired of being asked to juke numbers to get the house into a better price range.

"As A Real Estate Agent in California I never use Zillow their information is false and useless" Real estate agent in California.

"They know they're offering bogus data, but they don't care because consumers are eating it up, and they can use this for leverage to sell advertising packages to real estate agents"

http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/04/20/why-im-not-buying-zillow/

Thats a few of the quotes from the comments. Now I take the professionals opinions. Reason? I am one also. I was using Zillow for the convience. However many things did not make sense. So I checked their houses sold. Most of them do not exsist. They are not licenced professionals. You have no recourse to them. Just like you would not have recourse to the NAR. They are also not licensed but an association. If Zillow had a license it would be gone in 10 seconds. Don't use tax assesors information ever. Take the records to the deeds room and do a search.

In addition in the Superior court where the warrentee deeds are. You will find a lot of people pulling title for title companies and attorneys depending where you live. You can pay one of those say 50 bucks or so and they will pull the titles for you and tell you all about them. Weather they have been sold or not. What your going to find is whole cloth.

So the thing to do if your not a professional. You pay a Real estate broker 100 dollars. He will issue you a broker price opinion on the house. That is much cheaper than an appraisal if you are just trying to find out how much it is worth. Some will go as low as 75 dollars. Make sure he goes out to see the house. It's called a BPO for the noob's

ArtimusMaxtor says

So the thing to do if your not a professional. You pay a Real estate broker 100 dollars. He will issue you a broker price opinion on the house. That is much cheaper than an appraisal if you are just trying to find out how much it is worth. Some will go as low as 75 dollars. Make sure he goes out to see the house. It’s called a BPO for the noob’s

What is the normal price difference that comes out between a BPO and appraiser's appraisal?

Pretty much nothing. While an appraisal serves as a complete anaylsis of the market. Suitable for the lender. You can almost count on the fact they are very similar. Again there is a licence involved. The BPO is not done by a common real estate agent. It is done by the broker who owns the real estate company where the agents work. While it cannot serve as an appraisal. It is the opinion of the broker.

I would think that they do this to seperate out any self interest a broker might have vs a designated person like an appraiser who might have no self interest. However the way things are any appraiser will lament things just don't wash out that way for them either. BPO's are seldom used. Because of that simple fact. They can usually be counted on to be very accurate.

I will add this seperatly. I feel sorry for appraisers. They take pride usually in their licensing. They take pride in what they do. There are some nut cases out there in the appraisal world. However the way things are forces most of them into some really crappy situations. Which for the most part they don't like at all. I would say overall they are a fairly honest group.

One other note. I read the FDIC failed bank list. It's interesting that they are not talking about the high rate of credit card defaults. It must be astronomical. Given the fact that people will default on those before losing their house all day long.

I notice names like Canyon bank. Legacy, Superior National bank. There were many of these that issued credit cards. They all seem to be in default. They had higher than normal rates in some cases. This only means people were going in to get these in some cases as a last measure.

The FDIC failed list is riddled with those credit card issuing banks. However no mention is made of them for some unkown reason. If you have the thinking ability. You will understand that credit cards are now a nuclear disaster. The size of it even dwarfs the foreclousers that are taking place.

ArtimusMaxtor says

If you have the thinking ability. You will understand that credit cards are now a nuclear disaster. The size of it even dwarfs the foreclousers that are taking place.

Well of course. That almost entire income sucking mortgage payment which can't be sustained in these bad times has to spill over into credit card markets.

Exactly. However thats not whats being said. There is a certain amount of stability in Hawaii. I would think. However for the rest of the land. Thats just not the situation. We all recognize credit card issuing banks. Used for establishing credit in many cases. THEY HAVE ALL FOLDED. For the most part look at the FDIC list. In some cases they paid higher rates for their money to lend out.

Why they are hiding these losses one can only guess. Deal is it's not YOU or ME they are hiding these losses from. There is method to this. They only hope and pray certain people don't catch on.

See the deal is here. You might think someone like Geithner would be doing something like this. However the brain trust that started credit cards. Would be more the culprits. See I pull landlord credit reports. Have been doing so for years. The losses in the credit card industry has been astronomical for years. BOA is not a really good indicator. Its more like the fox watching the hen house. I would say if you added it all up. It makes the foreclouser blowout, look like kids buying penny candy.

HousingBoom says

Who wants to catch a falling knife? Most people still think that housing has bottomed but the mainstream media already pulled the plug on the housing market. We see nothing but bad news in housing now and people are beginning to wait on the sidelines.

People, including the media, have been saying "housing has bottomed and the recovery is on" for the past five years. And they'll continue that line for the next five years. The bottom is going to be lower than the bubble start prices. Right now prices are still higher than the bubble start. Doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that the correction still has a long way to go. Evidently, though, it does take honesty, something that the media, being paid by real estate advertisements, is incapable of.

With so many people noticing a dip in prices, look for C-S NSA numbers to reach a new post-bubble low (yes, double dip) within the next 2 months or so.

The C-S 20-city NSA index is now at 139.27, or 0.01 points above the post-bubble low from 2009.

DOUBLE DIP IS COMING !!

http://patrick.net/?p=688527

Real Property (home) prices will return to two and one half times the annual income of the buyer !!!
That is not a government rule it is a phenomenon.
The high income techy jobs have dwindled. Not so many overpaid, anxious investors.
Home prices would have returned to normal already if the gubmint would stop interfering. TARP, QED,,,,
We also need to force the FBI to prosecute all banks for forging ownership documents. Google "DOCX"

vain says

Karen these properties were valued at high 300k’s since mid to late 1990 circa. you are right about anything past skyline blvd though. there is no demand for those properties.

Say more about the neighborhood, if you don't mind. Why is there no demand? Is it the weather? The schools? When you say past Skyline, do you mean Daly City? That other streets border the area you are talking about?

bg says

Say more about the neighborhood, if you don’t mind. Why is there no demand? Is it the weather? The schools? When you say past Skyline, do you mean Daly City? That other streets border the area you are talking about?

There is no demand for any properties west of Skyline Blvd (aka, Highway 35). Reason being is that nobody really treats Highway 35 as a highway. It's just an annoyance and it's very inaccessible via highway. The properties closer towards the ocean wear and tear faster here (in Daly City). I guess it all sums down to weather.