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"No double dip (recession) but no rapid recovery either


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2010 Jul 2, 1:24am   3,356 views  16 comments

by SFace   ➕follow (7)   💰tip   ignore  

"No double dip (recession) but no rapid recovery either," said John Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo in Charlotte, North Carolina.

That pretty much sums my thoughts on where we are at.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Weak-private-hiring-shows-rb-3061982362.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

Comments 1 - 16 of 16        Search these comments

1   Shiller   2010 Jul 2, 3:05am  

I agree. There is no double dip because there was never a recover. We've always been a recession. Wait until the sovereign debt crisis comes to the US. I'll make sure to bring this thread by to life when everyone on this forum can honestly say that this country is in deeeeeep trouble.

2   gameisrigged   2010 Jul 2, 3:28am  

Seriously? You're quoting Wells Fargo on the future of the economy? One of the banks that bet on housing going up forever, and would have suffered catastrophic failure without massive government bailouts? Do you really think they're very good at predicting the future?

3   kimtitu   2010 Jul 2, 3:30am  

Agree. There is never a recovery except the hallucination created by the government using trillion of dollars. We were in recession and is only going to get deeper and longer. "Deeper, deeper". That is what the government wants.

4   gameisrigged   2010 Jul 2, 7:07am  

Yep. Trillions spent, and the Dow is where it was in 2003 - or 1999.

5   SFace   2010 Jul 2, 7:10am  

rigged

I think the average dividend yield for DOW companies are about 3.1% a year so not as bad as you conjure it up to be. The Bush tax cuts allowed companies to distribute their earnings in the forms of dividends with less penalty.

When looking at the DOW, please be mindful of the yields as well. If DOW is 10,000 in 2020, that is perfectly fine with me as long as dividends are 6-8% annually.

I have to explain this concept to 30% of investors who only look at DOW and see that as the total return and see something that is less than impressive than what really is happening.

6   inflection point   2010 Jul 2, 7:11am  

The direction is down, its rather irrelevant whether its a single, double or even a triple dip. Hold on to your hats.

7   gameisrigged   2010 Jul 2, 7:45am  

SF ace says

rigged
I think the average dividend yield for DOW companies are about 3.1% a year so not as bad as you conjure it up to be. The Bush tax cuts allowed companies to distribute their earnings in the forms of dividends with less penalty.
When looking at the DOW, please be mindful of the yields as well. If DOW is 10,000 in 2020, that is perfectly fine with me as long as dividends are 6-8% annually.
I have to explain this concept to 30% of investors who only look at DOW and see that as the total return and see something that is less than impressive than what really is happening.

Blah, blah, blah doubletalk. You must be an investment banker. The profits you are making are due to the huge infusion of TAXPAYER dollars into the market. There is no organic recovery. Also funny that all the pundits touted the soaring stock market as proof that a recovery was happening. But now allegedly the index levels don't matter? That's awfully convenient.

8   B.A.C.A.H.   2010 Jul 2, 9:26am  

gameisrigged says

Blah, blah, blah doubletalk. You must be an investment banker... all the pundits touted the soaring stock market as proof that a recovery was happening. But now allegedly the index levels don’t matter? That’s awfully convenient.

rigged, S Face does use the image, the Cool and Hip, Very Important Presence of a black AmericanExpress card for identification here. I think SF Ace may be a pseudonym for S. Face, maybe the S. is for "Save"; "Save Face".

Possibly, it is all in jest, the AmexBlack, the platitudes about the stock market, the moniker; all a spoof to make a point.

Clever.

9   SFace   2010 Jul 2, 9:58am  

sybrib says

gameisrigged says


Blah, blah, blah doubletalk. You must be an investment banker… all the pundits touted the soaring stock market as proof that a recovery was happening. But now allegedly the index levels don’t matter? That’s awfully convenient.

rigged, S Face does use the image, the Cool and Hip, Very Important Presence of a black AmericanExpress card for identification here. I think SF Ace may be a pseudonym for S. Face, maybe the S. is for “Save”; “Save Face”.
Possibly, it is all in jest, the AmexBlack, the platitudes about the stock market, the moniker; all a spoof to make a point.
Clever.

Syb

You're thinking to hard. The only point I was trying to make is including dividend yields. If you ask 100 people if the DOW is 10,000 on Jan 1, 2010 and the DOW is 10,000 Jan 1, 2011 and you have neither bought or sell, 70% of the time, people will answer investment returned them nothing. Only 30% of the people will see that they have gained 3.2% or so, which approximates the dividend yield of DOW 30 company. Only Cisco is dividend-less

With regards to AX Black, well, my direct boss has one, my brother in law has one. It's just a personal goal of mine to eventually get one as well. Part of my boss' success with client is just paying bills with the AX card, which that in itself gets him 30% closer to winning new clients.

10   jkl   2010 Jul 2, 11:17am  

my inflation pokemon beats your dividends pokemon, end of argument, epic fail, please go back to eco 101 forum

11   pkennedy   2010 Jul 2, 12:15pm  

I'm not sure how hurt wellsfargo ever got. They were forced into taking money even though they didn't want it. They also bought out wamu for a pretty good deal. They're one of Warren Buffets favorite banks, and I hate them. I also feel dirty walking out of there, I just don't do anything other than direct deposit with them, so it behooves me to change anything.

Dividend payouts are better than no payouts. They also show that the economy is making enough to pay out dividends.

12   gameisrigged   2010 Jul 2, 12:49pm  

Denial - it's not just a river in Egypt.

13   thomas.wong1986   2010 Jul 2, 2:26pm  

The dip is the recovery to more reasonable pricing. No Sweat!

14   Shiller   2010 Jul 2, 5:05pm  

TT - Yes, I'm the real deal. Housing is doomed and will fall an additional 50% nationally. SELL NOW!! Just kidding.

15   Shiller   2010 Jul 3, 2:58am  

Do you honestly think Robert Shiller will be on this forum???

16   inflection point   2010 Jul 5, 12:35pm  

He might be informally collecting consumer sentiment on the hosuing market? Maybe a new index.

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