patrick.net

SFWoman Says:

> PAR, Thank you. Do you know how quickly prices stalled/
> dropped in the ‘89 housing bust here? Was there the
> long lag like now?

Things were still booming in CA in 1989 slowed in 1990 and as I have said in the past I did not see anything start to drop until after “Operation Desert Shield” became “Operation Desert Storm” in early 1991. It was a slow drop in 1992 with not many foreclosures until 1993…

P.S. There was a "Loma Prieta" impact in 1989 on a small number of areas (like 94123 landfill and Foster City/Redwood Shores)...

FAB,

The reports I have seen show the peak in Q4 1989.

I saw the earthquake damage insurance maps of SF before I bought my place. (No ABAG online to research at the time) Surprisingly there was damage in several neighborhoods. There were a lot of chimneys that fell off of houses in the Haight and Mission. I had a friend who's Noe Valley house suffered a lot of damage (and she had closed on it three weeks earlier! Ouch!)

To me the ISS is a not a good use of resources. What's the point?

I was looking at the S&P Case/Shiller Index numbers for SF Bay Area again and realized I made a mistake in reporting the trough.
Peak: 75.15 June 1990
Low: 65.79 Feb 1994 (not 65.92 March 1996 as I previously reported. This is a correct datapoint, though not the low. Hey, whats .13 index points among friends -- only two years oscillating in the trough)
This actually jibes a bit more nicely with PARs National City data.

To answer SFWoman's question, over half the drop happened fairly quickly in under a year. By April 1991 the index was at 69.46. It then oscillates seasonally down to hit the low about 3 years later.
Again, if you bought at peak last time, nominal prices weren’t above water until October 1997 (Index at 75.22).

SP,

"Location, location, location. :-)"

They're not making more vacuum of space, yah know. (Oh wait!)

What is this super rabbit of which you speak?

Academia is full of idiots and fools, just like other walks of life. It's good practice for life.

GC,

Well, you're just hiring interns, so the risk of a bad hire is not too extreme.

GC,

How are you going to find a wife if you stick around here so much? :) You need to hit the bars and go look for that millionaire Youtube HR assistant who is semi doable in dim lighting.

I'm selling my karma, if anyone needs a little extra. Buy now and get a handful of my conscious tossed in for free (normally a $19.99 value).

I'm selling my soul. ($20 for 20%!) Shareholders can collect if my soul makes a profit.

SFWoman Says:

> FAB, The reports I have seen show
> the peak in Q4 1989.

I was commenting from memory but the link below supports my comment that “things were booming in CA in 1989” (notice the start and end points of the CA markets in 1989 on the graph). Since not many people seem to actually remember how bad the early 90’s were for real estate investors I can’t even imagine how bad things will get in the next few years as the market corrects.

http://tinyurl.com/2m2wgu

Someone a while back asked how to learn about finance.

There is no better way than to read the words Buffett.

The 2006 letter just came out and as usual it is worth reading.

http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/letters.html

P.S. For SF Woman and anyone with young kids the Buffett letters are all easy to read and are a great way to get started teaching kids about money and investing…

Oh, I already sold collateralized debt obligations and swaps on my soul, long long ago. Like any good derivative, my sold has been sold many times over.

*soul even

SFWoman,

If you're planning to use a water heater as your emergency drinking supply, I suggest you get a filter. The water may be safe, but very unpleasant to drink.

I once had an element replaced in a water heater, and what came out of the tank when the serviceman pulled out the old element was not pretty. The serviceman explained that the very bottom of the tank (I.e. below the hot water outlet) acted as a sludge trap.

IMHO an earthquake big enough to require an emergency water supply will also be big enough to shake up the heater tank so at least some of this grunge will go into suspension throughout the tank's contents.

(I always fill my kettle from the cold tap now.)

77% of GMAC's $57 Billion mortgage portfolio is subprime, according to a CNBC report I saw this morning our time. Plus they're sitting on $1.4 Billion in equity tranches.

IIRC their remaining 40% of GMAC is the only thing keeping GM alive.

No wonder they're having trouble signing off their accounts. I wonder if this means Chapter 11?

Only a couple of weeks back some of you said that you don't participate at Ben's as much as you used to, because the site had deteriorated . . .

Peter,

Some Swiss soldiers wandered across the Liechtenstein border while trainning this week. Nobody noticed until they realised themselves that they were about a mile over. Then they hustled back to Switzerland and admitted their error. Neither country appears fussed.

In passing, when I was travelling with mum from Zurich to Basle last year there were several young Swiss guys in Army uniforms complete with assault rifles in our carriage on the train. Whenever they went down the corridor to the restaurant car or bathroom or whatever, they carried their guns with them. I presume National Servicemen going either to or from their training location. Again, total unconcern by all the other passengers and railway staff.

SP, if only it were so. I am one of the people who is supposed to get the computers going again after an earthquake. If MUNI is down, it might take me a while to get to work though. I guess I can try to ride the bicycle.

SFWoman, this is a good reason to contribute to the ACLU. I am kind of astonished that you are on the no-fly list, though I guess I should not be astonished anymore at anything the Bush Administration does. I would like to believe that it has to do with your earlier biological microbal gene virulence work, but it is unlikely that the TSA really has their stuff together that well to actually target potential threats. More likely, your name is close to someone who was a felon or something like that.

DHS has created a way to challenge your entry on the no-fly list:

https://www.dhs.gov/xtrvlsec/programs/gc_1169676919316.shtm

Good luck with this and let us know how it goes for you.

SQT et al,

I think I'm going to slip into X-mode for a post like Randy did earlier.

*rant on*

From Ben's, quoting a Fortune interview with DL about his latest book.

Q: What about the problems in the subprime market?

That's when I knew we were in trouble.

So if he 'knew we were in trouble' 'about 2 years ago', then why didn't he freakin' SAY so? He is the NAR's Chief Economist, so he's supposed to be the official technical spokesman for the NAR, not the head cheerleader.

It's one thing to avoid a topic, or spin the facts in your constituency's favour, but another thing entirely to just straight out LIE in your supposed area of expertise.

No, instead we have 2 more years of this $hithead denying that we even had a bubble, anywhere in the US, and certainly denying that there was even the possibility of a national bubble.

What this A$$HOLE doesn't seem to realise, or at any event acknowledge, is that this is NOT a victimless crime. Hundreds of thousands, maybe millions, of (perhaps naive, perhaps dumb, I grant you) HONEST people are going to have both their financial futures and their dreams wrecked by the coming bust.

And worse, it is exactly the most responsible FB's who are going to get the most hosed, because they are the ones who might have put in some sort of real downpayment and/or will really screw themselves trying to keep their dream alive.

*rant off*

I feel better now. ;)

The Shmend You Know And Love Says:

"...Ive both known and worked closely with graduates from Wharton, Harvard, and Princeton. None of them were of particularly high intelligence or even had any refined skills...if you have this background, what the f-ck are doing massaging people?"
_____

Good question. Damn good question, soldier!

I pondered it over a cup of coffee and believe I came up with a suitable answer: they are imparting--through the osmosis Ivy-league touch-- poetry, art history and differential equations into their "johns" with each undulating Swedish massage.

Like a Vulcan Mind Meld, the negative particles of energy they manipulate into positive rays of light--on the nano-level of quantum physics--evolve our species to greater levels of cosmic enlightenment, peace and harmony.

And if you believe that, I've got...er...um, a Mc Mansion I'd like to sell you with an exotic ARM loan thrown in for good measure.

How about "McTearDownfor2012"

Peter P - I have found trap and skeet shooting almost zenlike. Improve accuracy, no need to get a brid dog, clean game, and always lots of shooting. Give it a try.

Thanks! I will give it a try. I do not really want to shoot anything other than skeets and paper targets.

Muggy Says:

> I’ll never forget having an argument with a relative over
> housing. I said, ” I think prices are going to come down.”
> He said, “You’re out of your fucking mind, there is no
> way housing goes down. Dude, they aren’t making
> anymore land!”

When people say this to me I usually give a half smile before I say “that’s what I thought when I was your age just before I lost my life savings when rents and values went down”…

ajh Says:

> SFWoman, If you’re planning to use a water heater as your
> emergency drinking supply, I suggest you get a filter. The
> water may be safe, but very unpleasant to drink.
> I once had an element replaced in a water heater, and
> what came out of the tank when the serviceman pulled
> out the old element was not pretty. The serviceman
> explained that the very bottom of the tank (I.e. below the
> hot water outlet) acted as a sludge trap.

Even if the “big one” hits we probably won’t have much trouble getting water in San Francisco. If worse comes to worse I can just walk down to Mountain Lake to get drinking water (SF Woman is probably closer to the Russian Hill reservoir where I’m sure it will be possible to get water with a hose) It is probably a better idea to have a little backpackers multi-fuel camp stove and a water filter so you will be set even if we don’t have running water for months.

I have replaced dozens of water heaters over the years (usually after they rust out and start leaking at the bottom). I have also drained a lot of water heaters and after a brief burst of gunk the fresh clear water from above will soon start coming out that will be fine to drink.

I agree that water is very important. Even with stockpiled freeze-dried food, you still need water to rehydrate it.

Jimbo Says:

> SFWoman, this is a good reason to contribute to the
> ACLU. I am kind of astonished that you are on the
> no-fly list, though

I have a common name (over a dozen people with my first and last name are registered to vote in SF) and since 9/11 I have been on and off the watch list multiple times (I know I’m back on the list when I can’t print my boarding pass at home). I don’t have any problem telling the people at the airport where I’m going or letting them search my bags (If I don’t want the TSA to see something I can always mail it). I’m a libertarian, but no fan of the ACLU. The ACLU has some great people working to do some great stuff, but overall the group seems to have lost its focus. I’m sure that California’s Prop. 83 (that about 75% of the people in our left leaning state supported) will inconvenience some convicted child predators since they will not be able to live in apartments overlooking playgrounds. I don’t have any kids but unlike the ACLU (that has been fighting for a decade to get rid of any restrictions across the country on where child molesters live and work) I don’t think that telling a guy who served time after he has admitted to raping 20 young boys that he can’t live in an apartment overlooking the Cathedral school for boys playground violates his “civil rights”…

I think an honest libertarian view would be that, while perhaps convicted p-dophiles should not be denied various human and civil rights (I say 'perhaps' being that anyone with a drop of blood in their veins, after having children, cannot even pretend to be unbiased on the subject), the owner of said apartment units should not be forced to rent to child m-lesters. There are some things that should be both legal and not tolerated. Kind of like all the virtual "age play" crap going on. Just because pretending you're engaging in p-dophilia with computer games isn't, and probably shouldn't be, technically illegal (it's a mind crime). No one should allow it to occur on their systems.

Bankruptcy already carries enormous direct and indirect punishment in the existing system. Some people are indeed, if the bankruptcy includes fraud charges, prohibited from engaging in said business activities in the future.

"I think an honest libertarian view would be that, while perhaps convicted p-dophiles should not be denied various human and civil rights (I say ‘perhaps’ being that anyone with a drop of blood in their veins, after having children, cannot even pretend to be unbiased on the subject), the owner of said apartment units should not be forced to rent to child m-lesters."

I agree.

Philosophically, why is a p-dophile more evil than a regular sex offender?

Similarly, is regicide more evil than felony murder?

Who cares if the markets are gamed. (I am not saying if they are or not.) You can still be very happy if you happen to be on the right side of the trade.

Stop whining! This board is not a support group. :)

theotherside Says:

> hum I see, where do you draw the line? How about a
> law preventing former apartment broker (like you) who
> went bankrupt to have the right to buy rental property
> ever again…

I don’t have any problem with a law that would prevent anyone who declared bankruptcy from going in to business again until all their creditors were made whole. I have a moral problem with a bankruptcy system that “wipes out” debt. I have no problem with the courts suspending debt payments to allow a person or business to restructure, but I think that individuals should be forced to continue paying any and all debts until they die (when the creditors will be able to liquidate their estate and only pass finds on to the debtors heirs after they are made whole)…

P.S. While I lost a lot of money in Real Estate I never declared bankruptcy (I’ve never even bounced a check or had a late payment). I was able to sign quitclaim deeds to people who had deeper pockets than I did who made all the payments (and in the end made a lot of money after things turned around and they sold the property)…

GC, I don't think you are as good at avoiding conflicts as you believe.

All i haveto say is thank god last week’s stock market pummelling is over!

The week itself is certainly over...

What made you say that?

What made whom say what?

GC Says:

Michael Holiday,

“their johns?!!!” You are being a sexist. You know those schools have been co-ed for a long, long time.
_____

Oops!

And don't forget their "janes" too.

“McChitBoxMang” is my offering.

Why were you deliberately picking fight with SR regarding p-dophiles?

No more obscenity please.

New thread: What would a psychic say about the housing market?

David Lereah is a fool, and a puppet of the real estate cartel, but it is unbecoming of good hearted people to resort to hurtful and cruel insults. A spokesman for a legitimate self serving industry doing his job is in no way similar to Herman Goering, and the things he did. Those who believe they are above DL actually lower themselves to a level below what they are criticizing when they spew such bile. This is a democratic society and everyone is entitled to their point of view no matter how silly it may be.