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Group Think?


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2006 Nov 29, 3:01pm   24,640 views  203 comments

by SP   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

In a previous thread, our friend FRIFY raised an excellent point:

There is a danger of group think on this blog. There are plenty of economic variables which could change and make buying a house a smart move even at inflated prices. The ongoing trashing of the dollar with the resultant inflation could be one such sea change. Don’t become as blinded as the FBs to economic reality.

While I don't fully agree that this blog is that boneheaded :-) I think it would be very interesting to discuss the impact that these economic variables will have on the housing crash.

Despite the title, this is NOT a discussion about whether we have group-think. And it is decidedly not a question of whether there was a bubble - that is patently obvious even to the trolls.

Instead, I would like us to take stock of the current economic and political situation and pick out key indicators ("sea changes", as Frify put it) that are game-changing and should necessitate a change in our bearish sentiment.

Group Think cartoon

Have at it,
SP

#housing

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201   SP   2006 Dec 2, 11:05am  

Surfer-X said:
1650? If so I totally Grok. San Hosebag and a Dutch town circa 1650 are pretty much equal. Rampant crime, fascist police, no center, a lack of community, ethnic violence, no freedom of movement after nightfall, I could go on and on but what would be the point of that?

Lol. No, the area around Rivermark is not even remotely as interesting as that. It is a fw communities of small townhouses on small lots, more or less surrounded by office-parks.

The comparison to townhouses near Eindhoven was only on the basis of scale - culturally they're fine olive oil and dirty dishwater. :-)

SP

202   Vicente   2006 Dec 2, 2:09pm  

RandyH, wasn't addressing you and perhaps "it's just that simple" was poorly chosen. What I was trying to say was that FOR ME, it's "just that simple" that I don't factor in nebulous guesses about inflation or long-term economy into my buying decisions. Can I afford this now, that is something I can grasp. Other people may have more complex standards. What those would be I do not know.

On the flip side of this, the original post...

If anyone remembers at this point

Was someone positing that, somehow, inflation in some murky way, would make it a good idea to buy RE just now after all.

Do I need to re-read this thread a 3rd time? Perhaps it's buried in there somewhere. I just don't see how prediction of inflation would make me want to run out and buy RE now.

203   ak268   2006 Dec 3, 1:27am  

I picked up Al Gore's Inconvenient Truth at the video store just the other day. If and when the California real estate crash ever arrives here in any truly significant fashion, gaining California land at mid elevations would seem prudent. According to Al, if things continue to go unchecked the meltdown of the Greenland, Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets will bring us new coastlines.

Buying in at a severe California real estate crash at mid elevations, then waiting things out again for rising sea levels can make your well located land become the new beachfront. With much of what we have known of as California underwater, your now prime beachfront property is likely to see the soaring California real estate boom of the 2040's. Hang on. Take care of your health. Live a long life, then enjoy your profits. Booms, busts and turning tides tend to be cyclic. Ride them rightly and profit accordingly.

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