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From what I could decipher from the 60 Minute interview with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, the Fed will lower rates when the CPI's and PCE's 6 month average for annual inflation are below 3%.
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"Historically, the US central bank has avoided surprising markets – say, by going 75bp when it is not priced in," Barclays economists led by Jonathan Millar said in a note to clients published Friday.
"But next week, we feel, is likely to be an exception."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inflation-puts-pressure-on-powell-what-to-know-this-week-162615319.html